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Technology, Complexity & Change:
The Creative Frictions of the Present
Jerry Sheehan, Vice President and Chief Information Officer,
Montana State University
Sponsored Talk for Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology, September 28, 2017
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Complicated and Complex
Complicated
Predictable
Complex
Unpredictable
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Agenda for Today
• Framework for Contemplating Technological Change
• How Fast is Fast, A Few Examples
• Case Studies of Accelerated Change and
Accompanying Complexity
• CyberWar
• Artificial Intelligence, Machine and Deep Learning
• The Distracted Mind and the iGeneration
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
G-Forces and Speed
• G-Forces, where G stands for
gravitational is a measurement
of acceleration that causes a
perception of change of weight.
• You have likely often heard the
term before:
• 0G-no perception of weight
as in space.
• 3G space shuttle during
launch and reentry.
• Humans can only take so much
acceleration before our systems
fail.
Source: https://www.aviationcv.com/aviation-blog/2016/2721
Source: xkcd.com, https://what-if.xkcd.com/116/
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Thesis
• Technology is Increasing the Pace of Change and
Allowing More Complex Systems to Be Created
• Complex Systems Are Networked, This Allows
Technological Changes to Have Global Impact
• It Isn’t Clear We Have Developed Systems in Place to
Deal with Rapid Change and Global Breadth of
Technologically Inspired Change
• Could, Should We Be Thinking About a Change-Force,
How Quickly Can Humans Change?
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Computational Processing Power
Source: Experts Exchange, http://pages.experts-exchange.com/processing-power-compared/
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Technology Enabled Explosion in Content
Data assembled by PresentationLoad, https://www.presentationload.com
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
The Speed of Technology Diffusion Has Accelerated
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
How Much Do We Use Technology
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
The Pace of Change is Different Now
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Example One: CyberWar
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
CyberWar Definitions
• Cyber Warfare: Cyber warfare involves the actions by a nation-state or international
organization to attack and attempt to damage another nation's computers or
information networks through, for example, computer viruses or denial-of-service
attacks.
• [Source: Rand Corporation]
• Plausible Deniability-”n. Polit. (the possibility of) denying a fact (esp. a discreditable
action) without arousing suspicion; the method of achieving this.
• [Source: Oxford English Dictionary]
• Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) Attack-”A Distributed Denial of Service
(DDoS) attack is an attempt to make an online service unavailable by overwhelming it
with traffic from multiple sources.”
• [Source: Arbor Networks]
• BotNet-”A botnet is an interconnected network of computers infected with malware
without the user's knowledge and controlled by cybercriminals.”
• [Source: Kaspersky.Lab]
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Web War 1: Estonia, 2007
Source: http://www.dailydot.com/layer8/web-war-cyberattack-russia-estonia
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Botnets
Source: Infographic from PresentationLoad, 2016
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
The Estonian Ping of Death
Source: Infographic from GlobalDots
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
The Fear of a More Nuclearized Middle East
1981 Operation Opera
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
StuxNet
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/how-a-secret-cyberwar-program-worked.html
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Retaliation from StuxNet?
Image from Robohut: http://robohub.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/grid-AI.jpg
Example Two: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Deep Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Deep Learning
Machine Learning
Source: https://www.qualcomm.com/news/onq/2017/09/01/whats-difference-between-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-and-deep?cmpid=brfyus1735082
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Eras of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and
Deep Learning
Source: What’s the Difference Between Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning, July 29, 2016, Michael Copeland
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/07/29/whats-difference-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-deep-learning-ai/
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
The Smile Algorithm
Javier Movellan, University of California, San Diego
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
AI Saves A Life: One Machine, 20 Million Studies
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Machines Are Better Than Man @ Pattern Recognition
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
AI Detects Suicidal Ideation
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
AI Will Save Lives on American Highways
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
AI Beats Us At Our Own Games
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
AI Learns to Talk
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Humans Have Biases
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
What If We Don’t Know How AI Works?
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Training Data Can Bias AI
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
What if Machine Bias Kept You In Jail?
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
AI and Faking the Future
https://www.facebook.com/verge/videos/1569064539796550/
And One More Thing…
Image courtesy of JazJaz at Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/groups/jazjaz/pool
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
We Have Been Developing For A While
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Let’s Think about a Watering Hole for a Moment
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Humans Don’t Multitask
Source: https://i1.wp.com/www.learningspy.co.uk/wp-
content/uploads/2017/01/Screen-Shot-2017-01-23-at-12.32.20.png
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Are Our Minds Able to Deal with Our Technologies?
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
The iGeneration
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Higher Education Isn’t Sure What to Do
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Logging In and Zoning Out in the Classroom
Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology
Washington State, e-DUI Law
Source: http://getsafeharbor.com/new-driving-law-coming-to-wa-july-23/

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Technology, Complexity & Change: Creative Frictions of the Present

  • 1. Technology, Complexity & Change: The Creative Frictions of the Present Jerry Sheehan, Vice President and Chief Information Officer, Montana State University Sponsored Talk for Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology, September 28, 2017
  • 2. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Complicated and Complex Complicated Predictable Complex Unpredictable
  • 3. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Agenda for Today • Framework for Contemplating Technological Change • How Fast is Fast, A Few Examples • Case Studies of Accelerated Change and Accompanying Complexity • CyberWar • Artificial Intelligence, Machine and Deep Learning • The Distracted Mind and the iGeneration
  • 4. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology G-Forces and Speed • G-Forces, where G stands for gravitational is a measurement of acceleration that causes a perception of change of weight. • You have likely often heard the term before: • 0G-no perception of weight as in space. • 3G space shuttle during launch and reentry. • Humans can only take so much acceleration before our systems fail. Source: https://www.aviationcv.com/aviation-blog/2016/2721 Source: xkcd.com, https://what-if.xkcd.com/116/
  • 5. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Thesis • Technology is Increasing the Pace of Change and Allowing More Complex Systems to Be Created • Complex Systems Are Networked, This Allows Technological Changes to Have Global Impact • It Isn’t Clear We Have Developed Systems in Place to Deal with Rapid Change and Global Breadth of Technologically Inspired Change • Could, Should We Be Thinking About a Change-Force, How Quickly Can Humans Change?
  • 6. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Computational Processing Power Source: Experts Exchange, http://pages.experts-exchange.com/processing-power-compared/
  • 7. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Technology Enabled Explosion in Content Data assembled by PresentationLoad, https://www.presentationload.com
  • 8. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology The Speed of Technology Diffusion Has Accelerated
  • 9. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology How Much Do We Use Technology
  • 10. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology The Pace of Change is Different Now
  • 11. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Example One: CyberWar
  • 12. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology CyberWar Definitions • Cyber Warfare: Cyber warfare involves the actions by a nation-state or international organization to attack and attempt to damage another nation's computers or information networks through, for example, computer viruses or denial-of-service attacks. • [Source: Rand Corporation] • Plausible Deniability-”n. Polit. (the possibility of) denying a fact (esp. a discreditable action) without arousing suspicion; the method of achieving this. • [Source: Oxford English Dictionary] • Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) Attack-”A Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is an attempt to make an online service unavailable by overwhelming it with traffic from multiple sources.” • [Source: Arbor Networks] • BotNet-”A botnet is an interconnected network of computers infected with malware without the user's knowledge and controlled by cybercriminals.” • [Source: Kaspersky.Lab]
  • 13. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Web War 1: Estonia, 2007 Source: http://www.dailydot.com/layer8/web-war-cyberattack-russia-estonia
  • 14. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Botnets Source: Infographic from PresentationLoad, 2016
  • 15. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology The Estonian Ping of Death Source: Infographic from GlobalDots
  • 16. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology The Fear of a More Nuclearized Middle East 1981 Operation Opera
  • 17. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology StuxNet Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/how-a-secret-cyberwar-program-worked.html
  • 18. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Retaliation from StuxNet?
  • 19. Image from Robohut: http://robohub.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/grid-AI.jpg Example Two: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • 20. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Deep Learning Artificial Intelligence Deep Learning Machine Learning Source: https://www.qualcomm.com/news/onq/2017/09/01/whats-difference-between-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-and-deep?cmpid=brfyus1735082
  • 21. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Eras of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Source: What’s the Difference Between Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning, July 29, 2016, Michael Copeland https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/07/29/whats-difference-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-deep-learning-ai/
  • 22. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology The Smile Algorithm Javier Movellan, University of California, San Diego
  • 23. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology AI Saves A Life: One Machine, 20 Million Studies
  • 24. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Machines Are Better Than Man @ Pattern Recognition
  • 25. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology AI Detects Suicidal Ideation
  • 26. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology AI Will Save Lives on American Highways
  • 27. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology AI Beats Us At Our Own Games
  • 28. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology AI Learns to Talk
  • 29. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Humans Have Biases
  • 30. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology What If We Don’t Know How AI Works?
  • 31. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Training Data Can Bias AI
  • 32. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology What if Machine Bias Kept You In Jail?
  • 33. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology AI and Faking the Future https://www.facebook.com/verge/videos/1569064539796550/
  • 34. And One More Thing… Image courtesy of JazJaz at Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/groups/jazjaz/pool
  • 35. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology We Have Been Developing For A While
  • 36. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Let’s Think about a Watering Hole for a Moment
  • 37. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Humans Don’t Multitask Source: https://i1.wp.com/www.learningspy.co.uk/wp- content/uploads/2017/01/Screen-Shot-2017-01-23-at-12.32.20.png
  • 38. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Are Our Minds Able to Deal with Our Technologies?
  • 39. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology The iGeneration
  • 40. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Higher Education Isn’t Sure What to Do
  • 41. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Logging In and Zoning Out in the Classroom
  • 42. Program for Learning and Community Engagement: Science and Technology Washington State, e-DUI Law Source: http://getsafeharbor.com/new-driving-law-coming-to-wa-july-23/

Notas do Editor

  1. Cray 2 1985 $32M iPhone 4 2010 $400
  2. Tallinn, Estonia’s coastal capital. The Soviets called it Monument to the Liberators of Tallinn With the specter of the Red Army looming, the Nazis withdrew from that city without fighting. It was the Estonians who re-established an independent country on Sept. 18, 1944. By Sept. 22, the Soviets took hold of the city again. In that way, the Russians “liberated” Talinn from the Estonians themselves In 2007, the Estonian government was getting ready to finally move the Bronze Soldier. In response, ethnic Russians in the country rioted in the worst unrest Estonia had seen since the brief but bloody war of independence that commenced when the Soviets occupied the country in 1944. Bronze Night
  3. some four dozen U.S. financial institutions and a flood-control dam north of New York City in forays meant to undermine U.S. markets and national security, according to federal prosecutors.
  4. Lie to Me