This is a keynote for the Ministry of Science, ICT, and Future Planning of South Korea

1. Emerging Technologies and
Creative Economy
Ministry of Science, ICT, and Future Planning
June 20, 2013
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project

2. Wise to invest in a diverse set of new creative
economic activities (not Panda Bear)
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Internet of things
Increasing intelligence
3-D Printing
Synthetic Biology
Nanotechnology
Retrofitting buildings for energy production
Continue robotic manufacturing
One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)

3. Next Mega Trend:
Conscious-Technology
When the distinction between these two trends
becomes blurred, we will have reached the
Post-Information Age
HUMANS BECOMING
CYBORGS
2030
2015
2000
1985
BUILT ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING INTELLIGENT

4. Simplification/Generalization of History and an
Alternative Future
Age / Element
Product
Power
Wealth
Place
War
Time
Agricultural Extraction
Food/Res
Religion
Land
Earth/Res
Location
Cyclical
Industrial
Machine
Nation-State
Capital
Factory
Resources
Linear
Information
Info/serv
Corporation
Access
Office
Perception
Flexible
Conscious-Technology
Linkage
Individual
Being
Motion
Identity
Invented

5. Synthetic Biology… the next Revolution

6. Synthetic Biology

7. Nanotechnology

8. Internet of Things – Ubiquitous Computing

9. Integration of jewelry and the Internet of things

10. 브록 힌즈만, business
futures
SRI
3-D Printing

11. 3D 프린터로 체스 프린트 중인 박여욱유엔미래포럼대표

12. 3-D Printing the base of a chess piece

13. The 3D-printed titanium lower mandible implant

14. Augmented Reality

15. Augmented Reality

16. Google does it again!

18. 터키 유엔미래포럼대표 홀로그람 연설 중, 바크 세계미래포럼 중

20. Retrofitting buildings to produce Energy
UCLA:
Widows can have
very thin film to
make electricity
new photovoltaic
capacities

21. Computational Science
Computational biology
Computational Chemistry
Computational Physics
All Accelerate with Moore’s Law

22. Emerging Technologies Table
Ifthen
Nanotechnology
Synthetic
Biology
Internet of
Things
3D Printing
ConsciousTechnology
Augmented
Reality
Nanotechnology
Synthetic
Biology
Internet of
Things
3D Printing
ConsciousTechnology
Augmented
Reality
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx

23. Creative Industries…. for what?
•
•
•
•
For arts?
For media?
For entertainment?
Yes, that is part of it, but also creativity to address the
15 Global Challenges
• Businesses grow and survive that address real
challenges – especially long-term challenges

24. 15 Global Challenges:
A Framework for Understanding Global Change, and an Agenda for Humanity
Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be
achieved for all while addressing global climate change?
Challenge 15: How can ethical considerations become more
routinely incorporated into global decisions?
Challenge 14: How can scientific and technological
breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
Challenge 13: How can growing energy demands be
met safely and efficiently?
Challenge 12: How can transnational organized crime
networks be stopped from becoming more powerful
and sophisticated global enterprises?
Challenge 11: How can the changing status of
women improve the human condition?
Challenge 10: How can shared values and new security
strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of
weapons of mass destruction?
Challenge 9: How can the capacity to decide
be improved as the nature of work and
institutions change?
Challenge 2: How can everyone have sufficient
clean water without conflict?
Challenge 3: How can population growth and
resources be brought into balance?
Challenge 4: How can genuine democracy
emerge from authoritarian regimes?
Challenge 5: How can policymaking be made more
sensitive to global long-term perspectives?
Challenge 6: How can the global convergence of information
and communications technologies work for everyone?
Challenge 7: How can ethical market economies
be encouraged to help reduce the gap between
rich and poor?
Challenge 8: How can the threat of new and
reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms
be reduced?

25. 32 Seeds of the Future of Arts,
Media, and Entertainment
Cross-Impact
these 32
seeds to see
what new
creative
industries are
possible

26. The Creative Economy… not
Catch-up Economy
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•
•
•
•
Requires cultural/perceptual changes
– Silicon Valley example of boss and employee
– Google example of 20% paid free time – pools of creativity
– Finding markets worldwide vs. finding jobs where you live
Builds on all South Koreans having Internet access with the processing power of
a human brain before 2020 and many more brains per person after that.
Acts with Internet of things, and nanotech sensor nets
Increases the changes from searching for a job, to searching for markets around
the world for individual’s capabilities.
Changes market as the center to attract people to physical location to each
person as the center for a 2 billion person set of markets today, but 9
billion/person in 37 years.

27. Creative Economy Management
3. Intersection of
Networks: Nodes
1. Hierarchy
2. Networks
4. Connecting Nodes
into Fields of Play
5. Connecting Fields of Play

28. One-Person
Businesses
Find markets
around the
world for what
you are
interested in
doing
not non-existing
jobs

29. Futures Research and the
Miracle of South Korea’s Development
President Park Chung Hee
Herman Kahn, inventor of scenarios
for policy, talked through
development strategies with Pres.
Park over years and many visits

30. 허먼 칸과 박정희 잦은 만남
사진출처:민주화기념사업회
2013-11-19
박영숙(사)유엔미래포럼
30

31. Some Elements of Next Economic System
• Capitalist and socialist/communist systems are early industrial age economic
systems
• Emerging new economic system, adapted to the globalized world and knowledge
economy
• Assessing some future elements of the next global economy
• 35 elements (not policies, events, developments, or goals)
that might help shape the next economic system over the
next 20 years:
– rated as to their importance to improving the human condition
– potential positive and negative impacts’ descriptions
– analysis of levels of agreement

32. Top 10 Most Beneficial Elements
by 2030
Elements
Imp
Resp
Agr.
1
Ethics: a key element in economic exchanges
8.36
168
0.86
2
New GDP definitions that include all forms of national wealth
7.96
164
0.78
3
Small tax on use of commons directed to global public goods
7.75
172
0.83
4
Collective intelligence: global commons for the knowledge economy
7.74
155
0.88
Continuously updated education on the evolving economic system and its elements
7.64
154
0.83
6
Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination
with much greater transparency.
7.61
168
0.79
7
Value of natural resources used in production included in pricing
7.56
162
0.76
8
Women’s political-economic roles essentially on par with men
7.25
182
0.68
9
Increased public disclosure of "tax havens", secret accounts
7.10
153
0.68
Wealth, re-defined as experience and not the accumulation of money or physical things
6.83
161
0.62
5
10

33. Some other Interesting Elements
• Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in
information dissemination with much greater transparency.
• Non-ownership, as distinct from private ownership or
collective/state ownership (e.g. current open source software)
• Alternatives to continuously creating artificial demand and growth
• One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet—
individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs

34. Future of Education is Increasing Intelligence:
both Individual and Collective Intelligence

35. How to increase Individual Intelligence
1. Responding to feedback
2. Consistency of love, diversity of environment
3. Nutrition
4. Reasoning exercises
5. Believing it is possible (placebo effect)
6. Contact with intelligent people or via VR simulations
7. Software systems and gaming
8. Neuro-pharmacology (enhanced brain chemistry)
9. Memes on classroom walls and else where, for example: intelligence is sexy
10. Low stress, stimulating environments, with certain music, color, fragrances
improves concentration and performance
11. Longer term:
• Reverse engineering the brain (President Obama)
• Applied Epigenetics and genetic engineering
• Designer microbes to eat the plaque on neurons

36. How to Increase Collective Intelligence
• It emerges from the integration
and synergies among
• data/info/knowledge
• software/hardware
• experts and others with insight
• that continually learns from
feedback
• to produce just in time knowledge
for better decisions
• than these elements acting alone.

37. Why the Transition to CIS?
• The velocity, volume, and complexity of change and
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•
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challenges are increasing exponentially
Some local issues depend on global developments
The amount of information and data is exploding
Our work shows that humanity has the resources to address
the challenges ahead
Will we make the necessary decisions?
We believe collective intelligence used by trans-Institutional
networks can help

38. An Application of Collective Intelligence:
Global Futures Intelligence System at www.themp.org

39. Global Challenge Menu in GFIS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies
Report (detailed text) on the challenge from State of the Future
News items (automatic news feeds – searchable)
Scanning (annotated, rated information)
On-going Delphi questionnaires to collect expert judgments
Public comments
Discussion groups
Computer models (mathematical and rules-based), and conceptual models
Resources: websites, books, papers, videos
Updates – all edits
Digests – Recent scans, edits, discussions

42. Wise to invest in a diverse set of new creative
economic activities (not Panda Bear)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Internet of things
Increasing intelligence
3-D Printing
Synthetic Biology
Nanotechnology
Retrofitting buildings for energy production
Continue robotic manufacturing
One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)

43. … May become a TransInstitution
Universities
UN
Organizations
The Millennium
Project
Governments
Corporations
NGOs
and
Foundations

44. Purposes of the Millennium Project
• Create a global and on-going capacity to improve thinking
about the future
• Make that thinking available through a variety of media for
consideration in
• policymaking
• advanced training
• educational curricula
• public education
• Continually respond to feedback, to accumulate wisdom
about potential futures

45. 49 Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews,
special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

46. 25 years ago there was no World Wide Web.
25 years from now: What will be emerging?
And from what?

47. For further information
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW,
Washington, D.C. 20016 USA
+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org
www.StateoftheFuture.org
www.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)