Speeding-up the Broadband Ubiquity in Europe
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Presentation delivered at Conference on Speeding-up the NGN Ubiquity: A Pilar for Digital Growth Athens, Greece 13-14 February 2014. Conference held within the framework of the Greek Presidency in EU.
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Speeding-up the Broadband Ubiquity in Europe
- 1. International Telecommunication Union Committed to Connecting the World Speeding-up the NGN Ubiquity: A Pilar for Digital Growth Athens, Greece 13-14 February 2014 Broadband Universalization Jaroslaw K. PONDER Strategy and Policy Advisor and Coordinator for Europe Region International Telecommunication Union Disclaimer: The Europe region in this document refers to the 43 countries that are served by the Europe Coordination unit at the ITU Headquarters. For the ITU-D regions, see: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/definitions/regions/index.html.
- 2. Committed to Connecting the World ICT developments in Europe 27% fixed (wired)- broadband penetration (almost three times the global average) Mobile-broadband penetration jumped from 29% to 68% in the period 2010-2013 Almost three out of four people online by end 2013 2 Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Note: * Estimates.
- 3. Committed to Connecting the World Mobile-broadband uptake in Europe Active mobile-broadband subscriptions estimated to reach 422 million in Europe by end 2013, over 100 million more than the year before At 68%, regional mobile- broadband penetration is estimated to remain the highest of all regions in 2013, more than doubling the global value 3 Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. The red lines in the chart show total mobile-broadband penetration in the world and in developed countries in 2012. * Data for Lithuania only include HDSPA and LTE. Active mobile-broadband subscriptions, 2012
- 4. Committed to Connecting the World Fixed (wired)-broadband uptake in Europe Top performers in Europe are also world leaders in terms of fixed (wired)-broadband penetration European countries with the highest fixed-broadband speeds only behind Japan and Korea (Rep.) in the world’s ranking by speed 4 Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. The red lines in the chart show fixed (wired)-broadband penetration in the world and in developed countries in 2012. Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions, 2012 Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions by speed, 2011 Note: * Speed intervals slightly different from the ones defined by ITU. ** Breakdown by speed available only for a part of the total.† Incl. fixed wireless broadband.
- 5. Committed to Connecting the World 55 MIS 2013 5th edition of the ITU Measuring the Information Society (MIS) Report was launched on 7 October 2013: Features ICT Development Index (IDI) Analysis of key market developments, including regional comparisons First comprehensive ITU price data set for mobile-broadband services The first-ever model to quantify the world’s Digital Natives An overview of digital TV broadcasting trends www.itu.int/go/MIS2013
- 6. Committed to Connecting the World ICT Development Index (IDI) in Europe 6 Source: ITU MIS 2013 Source: ITU MIS 2013 IDI values of European countries compared with the global, regional and developing/developed averages, 2012 Europe is the region with the highest average IDI and also the most homogeneous region Eight European countries rank in the global top ten for the IDI 2012
- 7. Committed to Connecting the World UN Broadband Commission State of Broadband 2013 Report • 26 Featured Insights, from 20 Commissioners and their organizations, with 35 sets of review comments.
- 8. Committed to Connecting the World 8 Measurable targets for 2015 • Developed by the Commission at the Broadband Leadership Summit in October 2011. • Four ambitious but achievable targets for making broadband policy universal and for boosting affordability and broadband uptake to ensure the benefits of broadband (in mHealth, m-payments & m-learning, for example) are available to all. • New target on gender equality added in March 2013. • Progress is tracked & reported annually in the run-up to 2015 • Final reporting will be made in 2015 to the UN General Assembly and Broadband Commission meeting in New York Broadband Commission Targets
- 9. Committed to Connecting the World 9 Target 1: Making broadband policy universal • By 2015, all countries should have a national broadband plan or strategy or include broadband in Universal Access / Service Definitions YES; 134; 69.5% PLANNED; 12; 6% NO; 47; 24.5% Numberof Countrieswith Plans,start 2013 17 31 38 53 64 102 123 133 134 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 NumberofCountrieofPlans 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Broadband Commission Targets
- 10. Committed to Connecting the World 10 Target 2: Making broadband affordable • By 2015, entry-level broadband services should be made affordable in developing countries (amounting to <5% of average monthly income) Broadband Commission Targets
- 11. Committed to Connecting the World 11 Target 3: Connecting homes to broadband • By 2015, 40% of households in developing countries should have Internet access Broadband Commission Targets
- 12. Committed to Connecting the World 12 Target 4: Getting people online • By 2015, Internet user penetration should reach 60% worldwide, 50% in developing countries and 15% in LDCs Broadband Commission Targets
- 13. Committed to Connecting the World 13 Target 5: Gender Equality in Broadband Broadband Commission Targets • By 2010, gender equality in access in broadband by 2020.
- 14. Committed to Connecting the World Broadband plans 14 Source: ITU Telecommunications/ICT Regulatory Database Financing: Public-private partnerships and Government funding are the main means of financing broadband deployments in the region 145 governments worldwide, including 39 European countries, have adopted or are planning to adopt a national broadband policy Financing means, Europe, 2012
- 15. Committed to Connecting the World ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map 15 ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map https://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/
- 16. ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map | Nov 2013 http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Technology/Pages/InteractiveTransmissionMaps.aspx http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/ 1) Purpose: To quantify supply-side indicators for the reach of broadband networks. 2) Research: Desk research, primary research in conjunction with ITU Regional Offices, and working with partner organisations. 3) Validation: The map is validated by network operators and administrations through the ITU Regional Offices and recorded in the Validation Framework. 4) Outputs: Broadband Capacity Indicators. Broadband Transmission Capacity Indicators Underneath the map is a database, containing records of each individual link. The following indicators are either compiled or calculated from this database: Indicator 1: Transmission network length (Route kilometres) Indicator 2: Node locations Indicator 3: Equipment type of terrestrial transmission network Indicator 4: Network capacity (bit rate) Indicator 5: Number of optical fibres within the cable Indicator 6: Operational status of the transmission network Indicator 7a: Percentage of population within reach of transmission networks Indicator 7b: Percentage of area within reach of transmission networks Introduction
- 17. ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map | Nov 2013 http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Technology/Pages/InteractiveTransmissionMaps.aspx http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/ ITU Interactive Transmission Map Research Status: November 2013 Region CIS ARB AFR ASP LAC Total Operators 27 19 21 41 54 162 Links 1,522 856 1,642 3,288 2,870 10,178 Nodes 966 754 1,442 2,528 2,294 7,984 Broadband Capacity Indicators Countries 11 12 17 30 31 101 Total 12 21 44 38 33 148 Route Kms 331,394 94,286 140,188 396,540 259,928 1,222,336 Total Kms 464,551 197,272 352,979 10,046,928 712,984 11,774,714 Population within range of operational fibre node (millions) 10-km 85.5 61.1 76.4 488.6 168.7 880.1 25-km 170.3 144.2 163.1 1,338.6 344.2 2,160.2 50-km 218.0 203.9 237.0 2,349.6 437.9 3,446.3
- 18. ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map | Nov 2013 http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Technology/Pages/InteractiveTransmissionMaps.aspx http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/ Click this link to launch the 3D version of the map, using the Google Earth plugin
- 19. ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map | Nov 2013 http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Technology/Pages/InteractiveTransmissionMaps.aspx http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/
- 20. ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map | Nov 2013 http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Technology/Pages/InteractiveTransmissionMaps.aspx http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/ Use the magnifying glass to zoom into a particular area of the map
- 21. ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map | Nov 2013 http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Technology/Pages/InteractiveTransmissionMaps.aspx http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/ Hover your mouse over a link, and the details of that link appear in the pane on the left
- 22. ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map | Nov 2013 http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Technology/Pages/InteractiveTransmissionMaps.aspx http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/
- 23. ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission Map | Nov 2013 http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Technology/Pages/InteractiveTransmissionMaps.aspx http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/
- 24. Committed to Connecting the World THANK YOU Jaroslaw K. PONDER Coordinator for Europe and Strategy and Policy Advisor International Telecommunication Union jaroslaw.ponder@itu.int 24
Notas do Editor
- Building upon the already high ICT penetration levels achieved in 2008, the Europe region is progressing in bringing ICTs to the share of the population not yet connected and thus advancing towards an inclusive information society.Apart from the number of fixed-telephone subscriptions, which has been on the decline since 2009, Europe shows sustained increases in all key ICT services, and all penetration rates are above the global level. It is estimated that fixed (wired)-broadband penetration will reach 27% in 2013, standing out as almost three times the global average. This corresponds to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% between 2008 and 2013, in line with the growth in households with Internet access during the same period. Internet usage has experienced a slightly slower progress in the five-year period, and it is estimated to reach almost 75% in 2013, which compares with 77% of households with Internet access. In line with global trends, mobile broadband has been the fastest growing market segment over the past few years, with annual growth rates above 25%, and it is estimated to reach 68% by end 2013. On the other hand, mobile-cellular penetration had almost achieved saturation levels by 2008, which limited the margin for growth.
- ITU estimates that Europe will have a total of 422 active million mobile-broadband subscriptions by end 2013, over 100 million more than the year before. At 68%, regional mobile-broadband penetration is estimated to remain the highest of all regions in 2013, more than doubling the global value (30%).In 2012, mobile-broadband penetration in Europe ranged from 11 per cent in Bosnia and Herzegovina and San Marino to 107 per cent in Finland. The European countries with the highest mobile-broadband penetration are from Northern Europe: Finland (107 per cent), Sweden (101 per cent), Denmark (88 per cent) and Norway (85 per cent). These countries have achieved mobile-broadband penetration rates comparable to those of the most advanced ICT countries from other regions, such as Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia and the United States. Other European countries, such as Luxembourg, Estonia, the United Kingdom and Iceland, have also reached remarkable mobile-broadband penetration rates, well above the average for developed countries (75%).
- By end 2012, fixed (wired)-broadband penetration ranged from more than 40% in Monaco and Switzerland to less than 10% in Albania and Montenegro. Among the European countries that have made most progress in fixed (wired)-broadband penetration, Greece (from 13% in 2008 to 24%in 2012), France (from 29% to 38%) and Croatia (from 12% to 20%) stand out. Top performers in Europe are also world leaders in terms of fixed (wired)-broadband penetration rates, including countries such as Monaco (46% in 2012), Switzerland (42% in 2012), the Netherlands (39% in 2012), Denmark (38% in 2012) and France (38% in 2012). Several large European countries, such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom, have achieved higher fixed (wired)-penetration rates than Japan and the United States, which suggests that Europe is at the forefront of fixed (wired)-broadband uptake.Data on advertised fixed (wired)-broadband speeds show that European countries with the highest fixed-broadband speeds are only behind Japan and Korea (Rep.) in the global comparison. This reflects the advanced level of deployment of fibre infrastructure in some European countries, with many households already connected to FTTH/B networks and/or advanced cable networks (hybrid fibre coaxial).
- The ICT Development Index (IDI) is a composite index combining 11 indicators into one benchmark measure that serves to monitor and compare developments in information and communication technology (ICT) across countries and regions. The IDI is divided into the three sub-indices of access, use and skills and is measured on a scale from a minimum/low of 0 to a maximum/high of 10.Among the six ITU regions, Europe is not only the region with the highest average IDI, at 6.73; it is also the most homogeneous region. Furthermore, the IDI range (calculated by subtracting the lowest IDI value in the region from the highest value) continued to decrease during the period 2011 to 2012, indicating a narrowing of the regional digital divide.Eight European countries rank within the top ten of the IDI 2012: Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Luxembourg. They are only overtaken by the Rep. of Korea (1st in IDI 2012) in terms of ICT developments. Dynamic countries in the region include Estonia and Israel – which improved their IDI values significantly from 2011 to 2012. Most progress achieved in the IDI was due to improvements in ICT household connectivity and in wireless-broadband penetration. Indeed, wireless broadband is the indicator showing the highest growth rates across the Europe region, with the highest penetration achieved in Finland (107 per cent) and Sweden (101 per cent), both very mature mobile markets, where wireless broadband was launched early on.
- In October 2011, the Commission set four ambitious but achievable targets for making broadband policy universal and for boosting affordability and broadband uptake. And of course, then there is the fifth target added in March, earlier this year. Progress towards meeting these targets is measured / analyzed annually, and country rankings are created and published in the Broadband Commission’s Annual Report. The first reporting on the targets was made in September 2012, to coincide with UN General Assembly and last year’s Broadband Commission meeting in New York.
- The first target addresses the need to make broadband policy universal. It states that ‘By 2015, all countries should have a national broadband plan or strategy or include broadband in their Universal Access / Service Definitions’. This year, ITU and Cisco published joint research proving that Plans can help promote the cross-sectoral deployment of broadband and help ensure optimal maximum benefits from broadband are achieved. According to the results of panel regressions, those countries with Plans had fixed broadband penetration 2.5% higher than countries without. In mobile, the impact of a Plan may be even greater – countries with Plans are associated with mobile broadband penetration some 7.4% higher on average than countries without PlansWe are seeing good progress in this target – by mid-2013, 134 countries had a national plan, policy or strategy in place for broadband, with a further 12 countries having plans underway to develop one (up from 64 from just before the Commission was launched).
- The second target covers broadband affordability. It states that ‘By 2015, entry-level broadband services should be made affordable in developing countries through adequate regulation and market forces (amounting to less than 5% of average monthly income)’.The actual number of developing countries which have achieved this target has remained static and unchanged since last year, at 48 countries (the 22 developing countries where broadband costs less than 2% of monthly income, and the 26 developing countries where broadband costs between 2-5% of monthly income). However, we are seeing more and more countries approach this target, with an impressive eighteen developing countries in the 5-8% bracket. So I am optimistic of seeing strong gains in this target next year, with operators in more countries having more affordable broadband services.
- The third target concerns getting homes connected to broadband. The target states that ‘By 2015, 40% of households in developing countries should have Internet access’. We are close to achieving this target, but not quite on-track, so I would really exhort you to focus your energies on connecting households, and Chapters 5 and 7 covers some of the means and policy recommendations by which broadband access can be made universal – through use of Universal Funds, subsidies and other incentives, specific programmes for household connectivity.
- The fourth target covers the percentage of the population that uses the Internet.The target states that ‘By 2015, Internet user penetration should reach 60% worldwide, 50% in developing countries and 15% in LDCs’. Internet use can be via fixed or mobile networks, and covers use of the Internet at home, at work, in school, at friends’ houses, in Internet cafés, in public places – in other words Internet use anywhere. By the end of this year, ITU projects that 39% of the global population will be online. Internet penetration in 2010 stood at 31% in the developing world. Sadly, we are not on-track to achieve this target, so I urge you to return to your respective countries and lobby hard for your digital futures – it is your future national competitiveness and ICT skills which are at stake here.
- At its March meeting this year, the Commission launched its fifth target calling for gender equality in access to broadband by 2020. Gender-disaggregated data are not yet available for broadband connectivity. Based on Internet usage data as a proxy indicator, by the end of 2013, however, ITU estimates that some 1.3 billion Internet users will be women (37% of all women worldwide were using the Internet), compared to 1.5 billion men online (41% of all men), equivalent to a global Internet gender gap of 200 million fewer women online, compared to men. The report of the Commission’s Working Group on Broadband and Gender examines the different ways of estimating Internet gender gaps.
- A sound policy and regulatory framework is today considered a key success factor in securing the huge and sustained investments in broadband networks that is still needed. The policy and regulatory measures governing broadband have implications for other sectors of the economy. Mindful of this critical role broadband play, over 145 governments have adopted or are planning to adopt a national policy, strategy, plan or Digital Agendato promote broadband by the end of 2012. Many of these broadband policies and plans focus on building nationwide broadband infrastructure, stimulating demand through the adoption of online services and applications such as e-education, e-health/telemedicine, e-government, e-business, and extending connectivity to provide universal access.39 countries in Europe have already adopted such an agenda or plan over the last six years. Where a market based approach may not be sufficient, and this is the case in many countries, multiple ways exist for funding nationwidebroadband deployments.public-private partnerships and direct financial subsidy (government grants) have been identified as the main means of financing these plans, followed by dedicated broadband funds and in some cases, by regional funding through the European Regional Development Fund and other EU funding. Nationwide broadband infrastructure built-out ranks high as a goal within these plans, along with connecting households and the promotion of online services and applications notably through public services using broadband.