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What’s the beat of the Skyline?
2016 overview and trends
June 2016
Skyline at a glance
The Skyline set
continues to
demonstrate
success….
From a
fundamentals
perspective, the
top-tier office set
posts significantly
lower vacancy,
higher rents and
more developer
interest in relative
terms than the
overall market.
1
The top of the market continues to outperform, but faces competition from emerging segments
$32.28
$43.42
$43.79
$56.82
$61.82
$20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65
Overall
CBD
Skyline
Trophy
Trophy U/C
Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
Skyline at a glance
JLL’s Skyline focuses on the top tier of the
office market, looking at some of the most iconic
and highest-rent properties within CBDs and
urban cores.
2
The top of the market continues to outperform, but faces competition from emerging segments
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
400,000,000
450,000,000
500,000,000
550,000,000
600,000,000
650,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Numberofbuildings
RBA(s.f.)
RBA (s.f.) Numer of buildings
Trophy
Non-
Trophy
50.6%
Trophy share
of supply
3
What are the trends in
2016?
4
1.
Gone today, here tomorrow
Many markets are expecting to see substantial
office building deliveries, which will begin to shift the
balance from landlord-favorable conditions and
ease the leasing environment for tenants.
5
2.
More, more, more
Premium pricing for coveted Skyline buildings will
be exacerbated as new Trophy buildings are
delivered, forcing some tenants to look to lower cost
options or different markets altogether.
6
3.
Ready, steady, go
The global economy combined with the concern
over the growth trajectory of the technology
industry, continues to weigh on the minds of
investors.
7
4.
On the road
Cost and competition in primary markets mean
Skyline assets are harder to acquire, if at all.
Investors are looking to hot secondary markets
where rent growth is still achievable and tenant
demand persists.
8
5.
What have you done for me lately?
Despite the rise in popularity of older creative
buildings and fringe markets, Skyline assets still
have lasting power, but only if owners meet the
needs of tenants to remain competitive.
Vacancy
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Vacancy(%)
9
Both direct and total vacancy continue to fall, but remain well above previous lows
12.7%
Total vacancy
11.8%
Direct vacancy
Source: JLL Research
Vacancy rate (%)
Direct vacancy
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Vacancy(%)
10
Direct vacancy for Trophy properties has fallen into the single-digits for the first time this cycle
14.2%
Non-Trophy
9.6%
Trophy
Source: JLL Research
Vacancy rate (%)
Net absorption
82.0%
83.0%
84.0%
85.0%
86.0%
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Netabsorption(%)
Netabsorption(s.f.)
Net absorption (s.f.) Occupancy (%)
11
Limited space options and strong growth in 2014 and 2015 slowed down gains in Q1
Source: JLL Research
2016 Skyline clock
12
The Skyline is enterting a new phase in the cycle after achieving peak rent growth
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Chicago, New York, Orange County, Philadelphia
Denver
Oakland, Seattle
Austin, Bellevue, Fort Lauderdale, Raleigh
Dallas
Charlotte, Salt Lake City
Hudson Waterfront, Milwaukee, West Palm Beach
Baltimore, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis,
Minneapolis, Stamford, Washington, DC
San Francisco
Atlanta, Century City, Fort Worth, Tampa
Portland
Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, San Diego, United States
Hampton Roads, Newark, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, St. Louis
Richmond
Cleveland
Columbus
Houston
Orlando
Wilmington
Sacramento
Source: JLL Research
Average asking rent
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Averageaskingrent($p.s.f.)
13
Rents continue to reach record levels, rate of growth slowing markedly
$38.61
2008
$43.79
Q1 2016
Skyline rents are 13.4
percent above previous
peak in 2008
Source: JLL Research
$43.79
Skyline
$32.28
Overall
Direct average
asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
Average asking rent
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Averageaskingrent($p.s.f.)
14
Demand for non-Trophy space has boosted rents to new highs; Trophy beginning to flatline
$56.82
Trophy
$33.73
Non-Trophy
Source: JLL Research
$32.28
Overall
Direct average
asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
Under construction
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Preleased(%)
Underconstruction(s.f.)
Under construction (s.f.) Preleased (%)
15
Development slightly up in Q1 at a record 34.1 m.s.f.; preleasing down as confidence improves
Source: JLL Research
Market Under construction (s.f.)
New York 12,571,498
San Francisco 2,584,357
Chicago 2,250,000
Seattle 2,227,875
Philadelphia 1,970,864
Denver 1,326,821
Boston 1,215,000
Bellevue 1,078,693
Orange County 1,065,424
All other markets 8,855,014
Skyline 34,080,122
37%
8%
7%6%
6%
4%
3%
3%
26%
New York San Francisco Chicago
Seattle Philadelphia Denver
Boston Bellevue All other markets
Under construction
16
Hudson Yards pushes New York well above other markets in terms of development
Source: JLL Research
Sales volume
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Salesvolume(s.f.)
17
Sales volume on track to meet 2015 levels, but continues to be well below previous cycle
Source: JLL Research
Sales volume and pricing
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$0
$10,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$50,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Salesprice($p.s.f.)
Salesvolume($)
Sales volume Price per square foot
18
Pricing growth of 26.7 percent from 2015 to Q1 2016 far exceeds expected increase in volume
Source: JLL Research
Average cap rate
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Averagecaprate(%)
19
Inbound capital flows for longer-term holds compressing yields to near-5.0 levels
6.2%
2008
5.3%
Q1 2016
Cap rates are down 90bp
from their previous low
Source: JLL Research
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016
Julia Georgules
Director – Office Research
+1 415 354 6908
Julia.Georgules@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
+1 202 719 6295
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
What else is on the horizon for Skyline?
Visit Skyline or contact us.

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What's on the horizon for the U.S. Skyline?

  • 1. What’s the beat of the Skyline? 2016 overview and trends June 2016
  • 2. Skyline at a glance The Skyline set continues to demonstrate success…. From a fundamentals perspective, the top-tier office set posts significantly lower vacancy, higher rents and more developer interest in relative terms than the overall market. 1 The top of the market continues to outperform, but faces competition from emerging segments $32.28 $43.42 $43.79 $56.82 $61.82 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65 Overall CBD Skyline Trophy Trophy U/C Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
  • 3. Skyline at a glance JLL’s Skyline focuses on the top tier of the office market, looking at some of the most iconic and highest-rent properties within CBDs and urban cores. 2 The top of the market continues to outperform, but faces competition from emerging segments 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 400,000,000 450,000,000 500,000,000 550,000,000 600,000,000 650,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Numberofbuildings RBA(s.f.) RBA (s.f.) Numer of buildings Trophy Non- Trophy 50.6% Trophy share of supply
  • 4. 3 What are the trends in 2016?
  • 5. 4 1. Gone today, here tomorrow Many markets are expecting to see substantial office building deliveries, which will begin to shift the balance from landlord-favorable conditions and ease the leasing environment for tenants.
  • 6. 5 2. More, more, more Premium pricing for coveted Skyline buildings will be exacerbated as new Trophy buildings are delivered, forcing some tenants to look to lower cost options or different markets altogether.
  • 7. 6 3. Ready, steady, go The global economy combined with the concern over the growth trajectory of the technology industry, continues to weigh on the minds of investors.
  • 8. 7 4. On the road Cost and competition in primary markets mean Skyline assets are harder to acquire, if at all. Investors are looking to hot secondary markets where rent growth is still achievable and tenant demand persists.
  • 9. 8 5. What have you done for me lately? Despite the rise in popularity of older creative buildings and fringe markets, Skyline assets still have lasting power, but only if owners meet the needs of tenants to remain competitive.
  • 10. Vacancy 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Vacancy(%) 9 Both direct and total vacancy continue to fall, but remain well above previous lows 12.7% Total vacancy 11.8% Direct vacancy Source: JLL Research Vacancy rate (%)
  • 11. Direct vacancy 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Vacancy(%) 10 Direct vacancy for Trophy properties has fallen into the single-digits for the first time this cycle 14.2% Non-Trophy 9.6% Trophy Source: JLL Research Vacancy rate (%)
  • 12. Net absorption 82.0% 83.0% 84.0% 85.0% 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Netabsorption(%) Netabsorption(s.f.) Net absorption (s.f.) Occupancy (%) 11 Limited space options and strong growth in 2014 and 2015 slowed down gains in Q1 Source: JLL Research
  • 13. 2016 Skyline clock 12 The Skyline is enterting a new phase in the cycle after achieving peak rent growth Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Chicago, New York, Orange County, Philadelphia Denver Oakland, Seattle Austin, Bellevue, Fort Lauderdale, Raleigh Dallas Charlotte, Salt Lake City Hudson Waterfront, Milwaukee, West Palm Beach Baltimore, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Stamford, Washington, DC San Francisco Atlanta, Century City, Fort Worth, Tampa Portland Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, San Diego, United States Hampton Roads, Newark, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, St. Louis Richmond Cleveland Columbus Houston Orlando Wilmington Sacramento Source: JLL Research
  • 14. Average asking rent $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Averageaskingrent($p.s.f.) 13 Rents continue to reach record levels, rate of growth slowing markedly $38.61 2008 $43.79 Q1 2016 Skyline rents are 13.4 percent above previous peak in 2008 Source: JLL Research $43.79 Skyline $32.28 Overall Direct average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
  • 15. Average asking rent $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Averageaskingrent($p.s.f.) 14 Demand for non-Trophy space has boosted rents to new highs; Trophy beginning to flatline $56.82 Trophy $33.73 Non-Trophy Source: JLL Research $32.28 Overall Direct average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
  • 16. Under construction 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Preleased(%) Underconstruction(s.f.) Under construction (s.f.) Preleased (%) 15 Development slightly up in Q1 at a record 34.1 m.s.f.; preleasing down as confidence improves Source: JLL Research
  • 17. Market Under construction (s.f.) New York 12,571,498 San Francisco 2,584,357 Chicago 2,250,000 Seattle 2,227,875 Philadelphia 1,970,864 Denver 1,326,821 Boston 1,215,000 Bellevue 1,078,693 Orange County 1,065,424 All other markets 8,855,014 Skyline 34,080,122 37% 8% 7%6% 6% 4% 3% 3% 26% New York San Francisco Chicago Seattle Philadelphia Denver Boston Bellevue All other markets Under construction 16 Hudson Yards pushes New York well above other markets in terms of development Source: JLL Research
  • 18. Sales volume 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Salesvolume(s.f.) 17 Sales volume on track to meet 2015 levels, but continues to be well below previous cycle Source: JLL Research
  • 19. Sales volume and pricing $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $0 $10,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 $30,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000 $50,000,000,000 $60,000,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Salesprice($p.s.f.) Salesvolume($) Sales volume Price per square foot 18 Pricing growth of 26.7 percent from 2015 to Q1 2016 far exceeds expected increase in volume Source: JLL Research
  • 20. Average cap rate 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Averagecaprate(%) 19 Inbound capital flows for longer-term holds compressing yields to near-5.0 levels 6.2% 2008 5.3% Q1 2016 Cap rates are down 90bp from their previous low Source: JLL Research
  • 21. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016 Julia Georgules Director – Office Research +1 415 354 6908 Julia.Georgules@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research +1 202 719 6295 Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com What else is on the horizon for Skyline? Visit Skyline or contact us.

Notas do Editor

  1. I think instead of narrative here, once I finish with the key themes we can use those as bullets. This is too heavy as-is
  2. I think instead of narrative here, once I finish with the key themes we can use those as bullets. This is too heavy as-is
  3. Change chart to say Q1 2016
  4. …after achieving peak rent growth in many markets
  5. Trophy is flatlining because many markets are hitting their ceiling
  6. Instead of “in terms of development” I would use “in development volume”