U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in February, representing below-average growth but exceeding some expectations. The unemployment rate increased 10 basis points to 6.7 percent, causing some to blame this winter’s frigid weather on halted growth. Unemployment for high school and college graduates remains lower, and labor force participation among this key demographic is up, though still suppressed. Total unemployment remains above historic norms at 12.6 percent. See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and JLL.

1. Professional and business services is
the employment situation: September 2013 February
big winner in a slow
U.S.
Release date: October 22, 2013
U.S. employment situation: February 2013
March 7, 2014

2. What were February’s bright spots and challenges?
Overview
Bright spots
Challenges
•T
• The U.S. economy added 175,000
jobs in February, representing
below-average growth but exceeding
some expectations.
• The unemployment rate increased
by 10 basis points to 6.7 percent.
• Total non-farm employment is at
99.5 percent of its previous peak
figure.
• 92.4 percent of the 8.7 million jobs
lost during the recession have been
recovered.
• PBS led both monthly and year-onyear gains, and was the big winner
in an otherwise slow month.
• Tech remains the dominant industry
for job growth, with energy
remaining volatile.
• Unemployment for high school and
college graduates is below the official
rate of 6.7 percent.
• Although wobbling, initial claims
remain only slightly above 300,000,
below previous years and below the
400,000 threshold for growth, but
have yet to see consistent declines
since.
• PBS’ rebound boosted office-using
industries’ share of monthly gains to
41.1 percent.
• Consumer confidence, despite a
small decline (-1.3 points), is still
elevated.
• Geographically, growth is being seen
increasingly outside of Texas and
tech hubs.
• Total unemployment (including
disaffected workers) remains above
historic norms at 12.6 percent.
• Labor force participation for high
school and college graduates,
although up, is still suppressed.
• Information continues to bring down
office-using growth, contracting by
16,000 jobs in February.
• Private-sector employment growth
has been subdued over the past
three months.
• Help wanted ads are on the up, but
so is unemployment.
• Temporary help services added
24,400 jobs, bringing its payroll total
to an elevated 2.8 million.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
OVERVIEW
2

3. Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-11
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
1-month net change
150,000
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
84,000
203,000
199,000
201,000
280,000
129,000
175,000
202,000
164,000
237,000
274,000
149,000
141,000
225,000
203,000
214,000
197,000
160,000
150,000
161,000
226,000
243,000
221,000
183,000
164,000
196,000
200,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
300,000
226,000
243,000
360,000
360,000
400,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
106,000
122,000
100,000
220,000
250,000
121,000
120,000
February posts a moderate increase from the previous
month (+175,000 jobs), but again below average
350,000
50,000
0
OVERVIEW
3

4. Revisions bring three-month employment growth to
388,000 jobs; unemployment rises 10bp to 6.7 percent
600.0
Monthly employment change
12.0%
Unemployment rate
400.0
10.0%
8.0%
0.0
-200.0
6.0%
-400.0
4.0%
-600.0
2.0%
-800.0
-1,000.0
0.0%
2003
2004
2005
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
OVERVIEW
4
Unemployment rate (%)
1-month net change (thousands)
200.0

5. 76 months into the cycle, total employment is now less
than 0.5 percent below prior peak levels
Past recessions (40 years)
1973
1981
1990
2001
2007
102.0%
Pre-recession employment level
Recovered jobs (%)
100.0%
98.0%
96.0%
94.0%
92.0%
90.0%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
OVERVIEW
5

6. 92.4 percent of jobs have been recovered from the
recession; now 666,000 jobs below pre-recession peak
Jobs lost during recession…
Jobs gained during recovery…
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
OVERVIEW
6

7. All office-using jobs have been recovered, but there is now
an emphasis on management, tech and design
Office-using jobs lost
during recession…
Office-using jobs gained
during recovery…
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
OVERVIEW
7

8. All subsectors saw below-average growth, but PBS was
by far the largest contributor to growth
Professional and business services
79.0
Education and health services
33.0
Leisure and hospitality
25.0
PBS
Temporary help services
24.4
Education and health
Construction
15.0
Leisure and hospitality
Wholesale trade
14.8
All other subsectors
Health care and social assistance
14.7
Government
13.0
Financial activities
9.0
Manufacturing
6.0
Durable goods
6.0
Motor vehicles and parts
3.4
Other services
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
78.3 percent of
monthly
growth.
3.0
Mining and logging
1.0
Nondurable goods
0.0
Transportation and warehousing
-3.6
Retail trade
-4.1
Information
-16.0
-40
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-20
0
20
40
60
1-month net change (thousands)
80
100
OVERVIEW
8

9. PBS was also dominant in year-on-year gains, but less
so due to strong growth in leisure, education and health
Professional and business services
668.0
Leisure and hospitality
PBS
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Financial activities
All other jobs
404.0
Education and health services
337.0
Retail trade
281.9
Health care and social assistance
275.2
Temporary help services
227.7
Construction
152.0
Wholesale trade
115.6
Transportation and warehousing
90.3
Manufacturing
61.0
Financial activities
61.0
Durable goods
57.0
Other services
33.0
Motor vehicles and parts
28.1
Nondurable goods
4.0
Mining and logging
2.3
Government -32.0
Information -42.0
-100
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
100
200 300 400 500 600
12-month net change (thousands)
700
800
Core subsectors added 84.0 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
OVERVIEW
9

10. Cold weather might be the culprit in retail trade’s
unusual February contraction
January and February countered retail’s traditional winter growth
70.0
Electronics and sports stores contract the most
Clothing stores
60.0
4.3
3.2
50.0
1-month net change (thousands)
Motor vehicle dealers
Building material stores
3.0
40.0
Furniture stores
1.3
Miscellaneous
0.9
30.0
Non-store retailers
10.0
-0.2
Gas stations
20.0
-0.6
Health stores
0.0
General merchandise
-10.0
Sporting goods stores
-2.0
-5.4
-8.6
Electronics stores -12.0
-20.0
-15.0
-30.0
2010
2011
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012
2013
2014
-10.0 -5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
1-month net change (thousands)
SECTOR FOCUS
10

11. Rebounds in PBS growth boost service-providing
employment in spite of an across-the-board slowdown
Goods-producing
Service-providing
600.0
1-month net change (thousands)
400.0
200.0
0.0
-200.0
-400.0
-600.0
-800.0
-1,000.0
2008
2009
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
BRIGHT SPOT
11

12. Both high school and college graduate unemployment
are stable, within 20bp of January
Bachelor's degree and higher
High school graduates, no college
12
6.4%
10
8
6
4
2
3.4%
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
BRIGHT SPOT
12

13. Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities is
more volatile
High-tech
Energy, Mining, and Utilities
Office-using industries
Total non-farm
7.0
5.0
12-month % change
3.0
1.0
-1.0
-3.0
-5.0
-7.0
-9.0
-11.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2014.
2013
BRIGHT SPOT
13

14. Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing
slowdown in recent months
Year-on-year percent growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
BRIGHT SPOT
14

15. Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to
remain in the low 300,000s
Initial claims
4-week moving average
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000
Claims
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
BRIGHT SPOT
15

16. PBS’ rebound and slowdown in other sectors boosts
office-using industries’ contribution to monthly gains
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
BRIGHT SPOT
16

17. Although consumer confidence dipped by 1.3 points, it
remains elevated compared to the rest of the recovery
100
12%
Consumer confidence index
Unemployment rate
90
10%
80
70
8%
60
50
6%
40
4%
30
20
2%
10
0
0%
2008
2009
2010
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2011
2012
2013
2014
BRIGHT SPOT
17

18. Markets seeing some of the strongest growth are not
necessarily in Texas or tech hubs
Seattle
2.6%
Silicon Valley
3.4%
Charlotte
2.6%
Phoenix
2.5%
Atlanta
2.5%
Austin
2.8%
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Houston
3.0%
BRIGHT SPOT
18

19. Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest
of the country
Detroit
0.8%
Cleveland
-0.6%
Milwaukee
0.6%
New Jersey
0.3%
St. Louis
0.6%
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
CHALLENGE
19

20. Total unemployment fell by only 10bp, but is
approaching the 10-year average
Total unemployment U-6
10-year average
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CHALLENGE
20

21. Labor force participation still suppressed, although
rising 40bp for high school graduates
79
College graduates
63
High school grads no college
High school graduates
College graduates
78
62
77
61
76
60
75
74
59
73
58
Jan07
Jan08
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
CHALLENGE
21

22. Private sector job gains below 2013 levels, similar to
2012 during the national slowdown
Private sector hiring up 4.4
million since February 2012
Change in '000s jobs
400
200
0
-200
Public sector shed 89,000 workers
since February 2012
-400
-600
-800
-1,000
2008
2009
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CHALLENGE
22

23. Information continues to drag down office-using job
growth (-16,000 jobs in February)
Information
Professional and business services
Financial activities
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In February 2014, it represented all 89.8 percent of new office jobs.
-200
-250
-300
2009
2010
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2011
2012
2013
2014
CHALLENGE
23

24. February saw a sharp increase in help wanted ads, but
unemployment rate is not in alignment
6,000,000
12.0%
Online help wanted ads
Unemployment rate
4,000,000
8.0%
3,000,000
6.0%
2,000,000
4.0%
2.0%
0
0.0%
2008
2009
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
2010
2011
2012
2013
Unemployment rate
10.0%
1,000,000
Online help wanted ads
5,000,000
2014
CHALLENGE
24

25. Temporary help services jumps by 24,400 jobs and
surpasses 2.8 million jobs for the first time
Temporary employment monthly net change
Temporary employment
60.0
Monthly net change in jobs (ths)
3,000.0
2,800.0
40.0
2,600.0
Temporary employment (ths)
80.0
2,400.0
20.0
2,200.0
0.0
2,000.0
-20.0
1,800.0
-40.0
1,600.0
-60.0
1,400.0
-80.0
1,200.0
-100.0
1,000.0
2009
2010
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2011
2012
2013
2014
CHALLENGE
25

26. For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
John Sikaitis
Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research
John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
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