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United States office overview and
outlook
Q1 2016
Although net absorption
fell to 7.7 million square
feet in Q1 2016, local
markets expect to see a
rebound later in the year
Q4’s strong occupancy
growth of 18.6 m.s.f. may
have hindered Q1 gains
as well.
Q1 2016 U.S. office market at a glance
1
Local markets slowed slightly during Q1, but fundamentals remain intact
Source: JLL Research
25,944,624 s.f.
Leasing activity > 20,000
s.f.
96,773,145 s.f.
Q1 2016 under
construction
Total leasing volumes
declined in Q1 2016, while
the share representing
growth fell. This mirrors
previous trends of slower
first quarters and comes
off the back of a strong
Q4. Activity will likely
rebound later in the year.
4,818,003 s.f.
Q1 2016 tech leasing
40.0%
Share of volume
representing growth
14.8%
Total vacancy
$32.28 p.s.f.
Q1 2016 average
asking rents
7,666,904 s.f.
Q1 net absorption (s.f.)
78.2%
Class A share of quarterly
net absorption
77.2 vs. 155.9 m.s.f.
CBD vs. suburban net
absorption since 2010
14.0% vs. 15.8%
CBD vs. suburban
vacancy
-1,501,300 s.f.
Quarterly drop in
sublease space
The increasing frequency
of speculative completions
and lower pre-leasing
rates, coupled with a
slowdown in occupancy
growth during the first
quarter, kept vacancy
relatively flat at 14.8
percent.
+3.2%/+8.7%
Quarterly and annual
rent growth
8:45
U.S. office market
clock position
Quarterly rental growth
reached its highest point
this cycle as the market is
near the 9:00 position on
the clock, representing the
fastest rate of rent growth.
Quality assets and core
Class B properties are
seeing sustained gains.
51.4%
Pre-leasing rate
10,330,565 s.f.
Q1 2016 construction
starts
Development has yet to
reach the 100 m.s.f. mark
and may not hit it this
cycle as the market nears
its cyclical peak. Over the
course of 2016, we
anticipate an increase in
deliveries that will begin to
add needed new supply.
Leasing activity
Leasing activity
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
65,000,000
70,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
Total leasing activity (s.f.) 4-quarter moving average (s.f.)
3
Leasing volumes dropped substantially in Q1 2016 as macroeconomic uncertainty paused activity
Source: JLL Research
Leasing by industry
585,175
750,158
896,172
907,215
947,266
986,749
1,373,322
1,715,609
1,806,035
1,856,068
2,638,713
4,818,003
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000
Transportation
Energy and utilities
Government
Real estate
Accounting and consulting
Insurance
Law firm
Media and entertainment
Professional services
Healthcare
Financial services
Technology
Leasing activity (s.f.)
4
Tech and finance continue to dominate activity; despite slowdown, energy still a large component
Source: JLL Research
Expansionary and contractionary activity
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Shareofactivity(%)
Growing Stable Shrinking
5
A slowdown in expansionary leasing due to limited options for growth became pronounced in Q1
53.8%
Stable
40.0%
Growing
6.2%
Shrinking
Source: JLL Research
Growth by industry
8.6%
17.4%
22.8%
23.9%
24.7%
27.3%
28.0%
29.4%
31.5%
31.5%
36.8%
43.1%
44.4%
54.7%
54.8%
56.1%
56.4%
61.3%
63.6%
65.1%
71.0%
72.1%
83.1%
85.8%
100.0%
68.2%
22.9%
77.2%
76.1%
45.3%
60.0%
37.1%
70.6%
62.4%
68.5%
42.0%
56.9%
55.6%
45.3%
38.9%
43.9%
43.6%
38.7%
36.4%
31.0%
29.0%
27.9%
16.9%
14.2%
0.0%
23.1%
59.6%
0.0%
0.0%
30.0%
12.6%
34.9%
0.0%
6.1%
0.0%
21.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Law firm
Aerospace and defense
Nonprofit
Media and entertainment
Telecom
Government
Insurance
Automotive
Financial services
Wholesale
Education
Marketing and advertising
Energy and utilities
Architecture and engineering
Accounting and consulting
Other
Healthcare
Real estate
Transportation
Technology
Profesional services
Travel services
Food and beverage
Life sciences
Retail and hospitality
Share of activity (%)
Growing Stable Shrinking
6
High-growth sectors such as life sciences and tech remain on the rise, but rate slowing
Source: JLL Research
Market Q1 2016 leasing volume (s.f.)
New York 3,527,026
Chicago 2,073,539
Boston 1,644,348
Washington, DC 2,812,190
Dallas 1,099,689
Austin 916,661
Seattle-Bellevue 883,959
San Francisco 790,011
New Jersey 779,740
Los Angeles 767,567
All other markets 10,649,894
United States 25,944,624
Leasing volume by market
7
Primary markets continue to drive activity, but top 10 share equates to only 2/3 of national volume
New York Chicago Boston Washington, DC
Dallas Austin Seattle-Bellevue San Francisco
New Jersey Los Angeles All other markets
Source: JLL Research
Leasing activity
8
Although not necessarily large users, high-growth creative and technical industries are expanding
Source: JLL Research
Boston
Shire Pharmaceuticals
45-55 Hayden Avenue
177,000 s.f.
Miami
Telemundo
45-55 Hayden Avenue
150,000 s.f.
Los Angeles
Netflix
ICON at Sunset Bronson
123,221 s.f.
Clear Channel
3400 W Olive Avenue
75,214 s.f.
Silicon Valley
Pharmacyclics
920 Stewart Drive
35,422 s.f.
New York
MG Engineering
116 W 32nd Street
45,000 s.f.
Leasing activity by type
9,852,316
6,653,773
3,766,592
2,816,753
1,419,696
258,109
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Relocation within
market
Renewal Expansion in market New Expansion in building Extension (< 36-
month term)
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
9
Movements to new space now on the market helped to boost in-market relocation activity in Q1
Source: JLL Research
Net absorption
Net absorption
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.)
11
Despite dropping sharply compared to a heavy-hitting Q4, YTD 2016 totals higher than 2015
Source: JLL Research
Market Net absorption (s.f.)
Chicago 1,655,104
Seattle-Bellevue 838,562
Silicon Valley 824,960
Austin 774,647
Philadelphia 604,158
San Diego 442,206
Los Angeles 432,114
Phoenix 423,748
Fairfield County 402,225
San Antonio 395,164
All other markets 1,419,748
United States 8,212,636
Chicago Seattle-Bellevue Silicon Valley Austin
Philadelphia San Diego Los Angeles Phoenix
Fairfield County San Antonio All other markets
Net absorption by market
12
Market-by-market performance was mixed, with diversified economies continuing to lead in Q1
Source: JLL Research
Net absorption by market
13
Declines in energy and occupancy losses in New York reduced diversity of growth in Q1 2016
Source: JLL Research
2,937,589
841,876
0
3,408,606
0478,833
38.3%
Tech
0.0%
NYC/DC
11.0%
Sun Belt
0.0%
Energy
Q1 2016
44.5%
Diverse
20142012
12,753,090
3,170,589
5,875,838
16,315,899
8,366,896
8,609,523
23.1%
Tech
15.2%
NYC/DC
5.8%
Sun Belt
10.7%
Energy
29.6%
Diverse
10,565,544
2,439,798
4,413,421
11,523,886
00
36.5%
Tech
0.0%
NYC/DC
8.4%
Sun Belt
15.2%
Energy
39.8%
Diverse
Net absorption by asset class
4,869,934
1,550,062
805,013 784,047
145,982 57,598
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Suburban Class A CBD Class A Suburban Class B CBD Class B CBD Class C Suburban Class C
Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.)
14
Take-up of quality space continues to drive absorption gains, particularly in new construction
Source: JLL Research
78.2%
Class A share
19.3%
Class B share
2.5%
Class C share
Net absorption by submarket
202,358
230,179
235,542
238,113
256,913
258,555
273,712
279,473
308,656
312,416
440,925
514,896
528,770
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
Cupertino (Silicon Valley)
Midtown (Atlanta)
Mid-Cambridge (Boston)
Greenway Plaza (Houston)
Charlotte CBD
Playa Vista (Los Angeles)
Northwest (Austin)
South Financial District (San Francisco)
Seattle CBD
River North (Chicago)
East Loop (Chicago)
Sunnyvale (Silicon Valley)
Route 28 South (Northern Virginia)
Quarterly net absorption (s.f.)
15
Despite muted occupancy growth, industry-heavy submarkets (especially suburban) led the way
Source: JLL Research
Net absorption by asset class
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cumulativenetabsorption(%ofinventory)
CBD Class A Suburban Class A CBD Class B
Suburban Class B CBD Class C Suburban Class C
16
Flight to quality, industry drivers and more space make suburban Class A lead in occupancy growth
Source: JLL Research
+10.1%
Suburban Class A
+7.7%
CBD Class A
+3.1%
Suburban Class B
+2.1%
CBD Class B
+0.4%
CBD Class C
+0.4%
Suburban Class C
Cumulative net absorption
(% of inventory)
Vacancy
Total vacancy
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Totalvacancy(%)
18
Total vacancy remained largely flat as deliveries countered slower absorption
Source: JLL Research
13.8% vs. ~14.7%
Current cycle will likely have
slightly higher cyclical low
Total vacancy by asset class
11.5%
12.0%
12.2%
14.2%
15.4%
17.5%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
CBD Class C CBD Class A CBD Class B Suburban Class C Suburban Class A Suburban Class B
Totalvacancy(%)
19
Quality and creative core asset vacancy remains limited; commodity dealing with surplus
Source: JLL Research
Total vacancy by asset class
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
VacancydeclinesinceQ12010(bp)
CBD Class A Suburban Class A CBD Class B
Suburban Class B CBD Class C Suburban Class C
20
As with absorption, vacancy has fallen fastest in quality suburban properties
Source: JLL Research
-510bp
Suburban Class A
-420bp
CBD Class A
-330bp
Suburban Class B
-300bp
CBD Class B
-170bp
CBD Class C
150bp
Suburban Class C
Vacancy decline
since Q1 2010
Total vacancy by submarket
21.2%
12.0%
14.1%
17.3%
12.3%
13.9%
15.1%
30.6%
17.5%
4.5%
5.1%
5.5%
6.4%
7.2%
9.1%
10.4%
11.5%
11.6%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Tempe (Phoenix)
Seaport District (Boston)
Playa Vista (Los Angeles)
East Loop (Chicago)
Market Street East (Philadelphia)
Times Square (New York)
West (Minneapolis)
Central Perimeter (Atlanta)
Brickell (Miami)
Total vacancy (%)
Class A Class B
21
Class A/B variance wide in many markets, but commodity suffers from functional obsolescence
Source: JLL Research – submarkets ranked by Class A vacancy
Sublease vacancy
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Subleasevacancy(s.f.)
22
Even as sublease vacancy rises in Houston and begins to in the Bay Area, it fell in Q1 on aggregate
Source: JLL Research
Rents
U.S. office clock (overall)
24
As landlords pushed rents up by 3.2 percent, markets move farther along in the cycle
Source: JLL Research
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Dallas
Jacksonville, Miami, Orange County
New Jersey,
Washington, DC
Atlanta, New York, Portland, Tampa
Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, Milwaukee,
Oakland-East Bay, Orlando, Salt Lake City
Baltimore, Detroit, Hartford, West Palm Beach
Los Angeles, San Diego, Seattle-Bellevue
Cleveland, Raleigh-Durham, Sacramento, St. Louis
San Francisco Peninsula
San Francisco
Denver, Silicon Valley
Phoenix
Boston, United States
Hampton Roads, Long Island, San Antonio
Minneapolis
Chicago, Indianapolis, Richmond
Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Westchester County
Austin, Nashville
Houston
Columbus
Cincinnati, Fairfield County
U.S. office clock (CBD)
25
CBDs are moving slightly faster than the market overall, entering peaking phase of the cycle
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Dallas, Downtown (New York), Los Angeles
Denver
Boston, Miami, San Diego, United States
Midtown (New York)
Midtown South (New York), Nashville
Charlotte, Oakland CBD, Orlando, Philadelphia
Atlanta, Fort Lauderdale, Portland
Baltimore, Richmond
Minneapolis, Seattle
Chicago, Jacksonville
Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Antonio, West Palm Beach
Austin, Tampa
Milwaukee, Raleigh-Durham, Sacramento
San Francisco, San Jose CBD
Columbus, St. Louis
Salt Lake City
Detroit, Hartford, Washington DC, White Plains
Cleveland, Indianapolis
Houston
Fairfield County, Pittsburgh
Source: JLL Research
U.S. office clock (suburban)
26
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Dallas
Silicon Valley
Miami, Phoenix
Lehigh Valley,
Northern NJCentral NJ, Columbus, Hartford, Northern DE, West Palm Beach
Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Milwaukee,
Oakland-East Bay, Westchester County
Fort Lauderdale, Hampton Roads, Orlando, Long Island,
Raleigh-Durham, Philadelphia, Sacramento, San Antonio
Baltimore
Bellevue, Cambridge
Boston, Orange County, Seattle, St. Louis, United States
Atlanta, Jacksonville, Portland, Tampa
Los Angeles, Nashville, San Diego, Seattle-Bellevue
San Francisco Peninsula
San Francisco
Minneapolis, Salt Lake City
Washington, DC
Indianapolis
Austin, Richmond
Denver
Southern NJ
Houston
Cincinnati, Fairfield County
Detroit, Pittsburgh
Source: JLL Research
Quarterly asking rent growth
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Quarterlyrentgrowth(%)
27
Landlords confidence is still on the rise, with a 3.2-percent spike in rents the highest this cycle
Source: JLL Research
Rent growth by asset class
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RentgrowthsinceQ12010(%)
CBD Class A Suburban Class A CBD Class B
Suburban Class B CBD Class C Suburban Class C
28
CBD Class A rent growth continues unabated, while suburbs and commodity see modest increases
Source: JLL Research
+14.4%
Suburban Class A
+29.0%
CBD Class A
+9.9%
Suburban Class B
+12.2%
CBD Class B
+13.8%
CBD Class C
+12.7%
Suburban Class C
Rent growth since
Q1 2010
CBD rent premium
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Averageaskingrent($p.s.f.)
29
The gap between CBD and suburban rents continues to rise without signs of slowing
Source: JLL Research
CBD rents are
62.3%
higher than in
the suburbs
Rent growth by submarket
7.4%
7.9%
8.8%
8.9%
10.2%
11.9%
14.8%
16.5%
17.3%
18.5%
19.8%
20.9%
39.2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Metropark (New Jersey)
CBD (Washington, DC)
Austin CBD
Redmond (Seattle)
Fort Lauderdale CBD
River North (Chicago)
South Financial District (San Francisco)
Irvine Spectrum (Orange County)
Santa Monica (Los Angeles)
Portland CBD
BWI/Anne Arundel (Baltimore)
Gramercy Park (New York)
Redwood City (SF Peninsula)
Class B year-over-year rent growth (%)
30
As demand spills into the Class B sector, rents in many submarkets are rising appreciably
Source: JLL Research
Concessions
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
$22
$23
$24
$25
$26
$27
$28
$29
$30
$31
$32
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Freemonths
TIallowance($p.s.f.)
TI allowance ($ p.s.f.) Free months
31
Concessions have remained steady as new deliveries counter tightening conditions elsewhere
Source: JLL Research – concessions based on 10-year term
Construction
Under construction
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Underconstruction(s.f.)
33
A spike in starts boosted development activity to 96.8 m.s.f. in Q1
Source: JLL Research
Construction starts
7,322,061
11,407,786
13,060,032
4,781,395
11,818,372
9,168,187
9,855,374
12,720,560 12,810,553
9,748,464
8,484,369
7,331,979
10,330,565
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016
Constructionstarts(s.f.)
34
After a three-quarter slowdown, starts are back above the 10 m.s.f. mark
Source: JLL Research
Construction starts
35
Active developers continue to boost the pipeline, with many confident to start fully spec projects
Source: JLL Research
A
1800 Owens Street
680,000 s.f.
Kilroy
0.0% pre-leased
222 2nd Avenue S
386,000 s.f.
Hines
19.9% pre-leased
425 Park Avenue
670,000 s.f.
L&L
29.9% pre-leased
151 N Franklin Street
825,000 s.f.
John Buck
48.5% pre-leased
3675 Market Street
300,000 s.f.
BioMed
100.0% pre-leased
The Boardwalk
537,224 s.f.
Trammell Crow
0.0% pre-leased
B
C
D
E
F
A B C
D E F
Completions
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Completions(s.f.)
36
7.7 m.s.f. of the more than 44.0 m.s.f we expect to deliver in 2016 came to the market in Q1
Source: JLL Research
Construction starts
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019
Completions(s.f.)
Speculative (pre-leased) Speculative (available) BTS
37
As the development cycle nears its peak in 2016, deliveries will diminish slowly through 2019
Source: JLL Research
Completions
260,000
270,614
287,200
297,583
342,000
406,600
445,000
459,186
496,505
572,173
916,136
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Cupertino (Silicon Valley)
Menlo Park (SF Peninsula)
128/Mass Pike (Boston)
Northwest (Austin)
Southwest (Washington, DC)
Houston CBD
Westchase (Houston)
Richardson/Plano (Dallas)
Far North Dallas
Santa Clara (Silicon Valley)
Sunnyvale (Silicon Valley)
Quarterly completions (s.f.)
38
Deliveries were overwhelmingly concentrated in select submarkets during the first quarter
Source: JLL Research
Top submarkets Rest of U.S.
44.7%
Investment sales
Following five consecutive years of strong growth, office
transaction volumes increase by 1.0 percent year-on-year
40
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Officeinvestmentsalevolumes(billionsof$US)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: JLL Research, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions larger than $5.0m)
Primary and secondary cap rates continue to decline
41
1.8%
4.2%
5.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
YTD
10-year Treasury (%) Primary cap rates (%) Secondary cap rates (%)
Source: JLL Research, NCREIF, Board of Governors of Federal Reserve
Despite the interest rate hike, the spread between office cap rates and the 10-year Treasury has
widened slightly for primary and secondary markets
Occupational markets remain strong yet disjointed from
investment sales activity in Q1, notably in primary markets
42
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2013 2014 2015 2016
Q12016highestabsorptionmarkets(thousandsofs.f.)
Chicago Seattle Silicon Valley Austin Philadelphia Los Angeles
Source: JLL Research
Macro volatility, caution over pricing and limited asset
availability spurs quarterly declines in most primary markets
43
Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Primarymarketinvestmentvolumes(millionsof$US)
Q1 2015 Q1 2016
Secondary markets have strongest first quarter in three years, as
primary markets in aggregate decline
44
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1
Primarymarketinvestmentvolumes(millionsof$US)
Primary Secondary
Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
45
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annualcapratefluctuations
Compressing Stable Softening
Source: JLL Research, NCREIF; Includes 32 major office markets; Stable defined as markets seeing fluctuations within 10 basis points year-over-year.
Cap rates continue to compress with nearly 94.0 percent of markets
seeing compressing or stabilizing yields
Germany dominates as top origin of inbound capital, surpassing active
Asian and Canadian capital from prior two years
46
Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
24.0%
21.9%
15.3%
13.5%
9.0%
16.4%
Norway Germany
Canada Singapore
South Korea All others
35.1%
15.8%15.5%
9.5%
5.6%
18.5%
Canada China
Germany South Korea
Hong Kong All others
Most active foreign investors
(2014)
Most active foreign investors
(2015)
37%
22%
12%
10%
6%
2%
Germany Qatar
South Korea Canada
China United Kingdom
Most active foreign investors
(Q1 2016)
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Julia Georgules
Director – Office Research
+1 415 354 6908
Julia.Georgules@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
+1 202 719 6295
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
Sean Coghlan
Director – Investor Research
+1 215 988 5556
Sean.Coghlan@am.jll.com
Rachel Johnson
Research Analyst – Capital Markets
+1 312 228 3017
Rachel.Johnson@am.jll.com

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US office market overview and outlook Q1 2016

  • 1. United States office overview and outlook Q1 2016
  • 2. Although net absorption fell to 7.7 million square feet in Q1 2016, local markets expect to see a rebound later in the year Q4’s strong occupancy growth of 18.6 m.s.f. may have hindered Q1 gains as well. Q1 2016 U.S. office market at a glance 1 Local markets slowed slightly during Q1, but fundamentals remain intact Source: JLL Research 25,944,624 s.f. Leasing activity > 20,000 s.f. 96,773,145 s.f. Q1 2016 under construction Total leasing volumes declined in Q1 2016, while the share representing growth fell. This mirrors previous trends of slower first quarters and comes off the back of a strong Q4. Activity will likely rebound later in the year. 4,818,003 s.f. Q1 2016 tech leasing 40.0% Share of volume representing growth 14.8% Total vacancy $32.28 p.s.f. Q1 2016 average asking rents 7,666,904 s.f. Q1 net absorption (s.f.) 78.2% Class A share of quarterly net absorption 77.2 vs. 155.9 m.s.f. CBD vs. suburban net absorption since 2010 14.0% vs. 15.8% CBD vs. suburban vacancy -1,501,300 s.f. Quarterly drop in sublease space The increasing frequency of speculative completions and lower pre-leasing rates, coupled with a slowdown in occupancy growth during the first quarter, kept vacancy relatively flat at 14.8 percent. +3.2%/+8.7% Quarterly and annual rent growth 8:45 U.S. office market clock position Quarterly rental growth reached its highest point this cycle as the market is near the 9:00 position on the clock, representing the fastest rate of rent growth. Quality assets and core Class B properties are seeing sustained gains. 51.4% Pre-leasing rate 10,330,565 s.f. Q1 2016 construction starts Development has yet to reach the 100 m.s.f. mark and may not hit it this cycle as the market nears its cyclical peak. Over the course of 2016, we anticipate an increase in deliveries that will begin to add needed new supply.
  • 4. Leasing activity 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000 50,000,000 55,000,000 60,000,000 65,000,000 70,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Leasingactivity(s.f.) Total leasing activity (s.f.) 4-quarter moving average (s.f.) 3 Leasing volumes dropped substantially in Q1 2016 as macroeconomic uncertainty paused activity Source: JLL Research
  • 5. Leasing by industry 585,175 750,158 896,172 907,215 947,266 986,749 1,373,322 1,715,609 1,806,035 1,856,068 2,638,713 4,818,003 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Transportation Energy and utilities Government Real estate Accounting and consulting Insurance Law firm Media and entertainment Professional services Healthcare Financial services Technology Leasing activity (s.f.) 4 Tech and finance continue to dominate activity; despite slowdown, energy still a large component Source: JLL Research
  • 6. Expansionary and contractionary activity 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Shareofactivity(%) Growing Stable Shrinking 5 A slowdown in expansionary leasing due to limited options for growth became pronounced in Q1 53.8% Stable 40.0% Growing 6.2% Shrinking Source: JLL Research
  • 7. Growth by industry 8.6% 17.4% 22.8% 23.9% 24.7% 27.3% 28.0% 29.4% 31.5% 31.5% 36.8% 43.1% 44.4% 54.7% 54.8% 56.1% 56.4% 61.3% 63.6% 65.1% 71.0% 72.1% 83.1% 85.8% 100.0% 68.2% 22.9% 77.2% 76.1% 45.3% 60.0% 37.1% 70.6% 62.4% 68.5% 42.0% 56.9% 55.6% 45.3% 38.9% 43.9% 43.6% 38.7% 36.4% 31.0% 29.0% 27.9% 16.9% 14.2% 0.0% 23.1% 59.6% 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 12.6% 34.9% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Law firm Aerospace and defense Nonprofit Media and entertainment Telecom Government Insurance Automotive Financial services Wholesale Education Marketing and advertising Energy and utilities Architecture and engineering Accounting and consulting Other Healthcare Real estate Transportation Technology Profesional services Travel services Food and beverage Life sciences Retail and hospitality Share of activity (%) Growing Stable Shrinking 6 High-growth sectors such as life sciences and tech remain on the rise, but rate slowing Source: JLL Research
  • 8. Market Q1 2016 leasing volume (s.f.) New York 3,527,026 Chicago 2,073,539 Boston 1,644,348 Washington, DC 2,812,190 Dallas 1,099,689 Austin 916,661 Seattle-Bellevue 883,959 San Francisco 790,011 New Jersey 779,740 Los Angeles 767,567 All other markets 10,649,894 United States 25,944,624 Leasing volume by market 7 Primary markets continue to drive activity, but top 10 share equates to only 2/3 of national volume New York Chicago Boston Washington, DC Dallas Austin Seattle-Bellevue San Francisco New Jersey Los Angeles All other markets Source: JLL Research
  • 9. Leasing activity 8 Although not necessarily large users, high-growth creative and technical industries are expanding Source: JLL Research Boston Shire Pharmaceuticals 45-55 Hayden Avenue 177,000 s.f. Miami Telemundo 45-55 Hayden Avenue 150,000 s.f. Los Angeles Netflix ICON at Sunset Bronson 123,221 s.f. Clear Channel 3400 W Olive Avenue 75,214 s.f. Silicon Valley Pharmacyclics 920 Stewart Drive 35,422 s.f. New York MG Engineering 116 W 32nd Street 45,000 s.f.
  • 10. Leasing activity by type 9,852,316 6,653,773 3,766,592 2,816,753 1,419,696 258,109 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 Relocation within market Renewal Expansion in market New Expansion in building Extension (< 36- month term) Leasingactivity(s.f.) 9 Movements to new space now on the market helped to boost in-market relocation activity in Q1 Source: JLL Research
  • 12. Net absorption -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.) 11 Despite dropping sharply compared to a heavy-hitting Q4, YTD 2016 totals higher than 2015 Source: JLL Research
  • 13. Market Net absorption (s.f.) Chicago 1,655,104 Seattle-Bellevue 838,562 Silicon Valley 824,960 Austin 774,647 Philadelphia 604,158 San Diego 442,206 Los Angeles 432,114 Phoenix 423,748 Fairfield County 402,225 San Antonio 395,164 All other markets 1,419,748 United States 8,212,636 Chicago Seattle-Bellevue Silicon Valley Austin Philadelphia San Diego Los Angeles Phoenix Fairfield County San Antonio All other markets Net absorption by market 12 Market-by-market performance was mixed, with diversified economies continuing to lead in Q1 Source: JLL Research
  • 14. Net absorption by market 13 Declines in energy and occupancy losses in New York reduced diversity of growth in Q1 2016 Source: JLL Research 2,937,589 841,876 0 3,408,606 0478,833 38.3% Tech 0.0% NYC/DC 11.0% Sun Belt 0.0% Energy Q1 2016 44.5% Diverse 20142012 12,753,090 3,170,589 5,875,838 16,315,899 8,366,896 8,609,523 23.1% Tech 15.2% NYC/DC 5.8% Sun Belt 10.7% Energy 29.6% Diverse 10,565,544 2,439,798 4,413,421 11,523,886 00 36.5% Tech 0.0% NYC/DC 8.4% Sun Belt 15.2% Energy 39.8% Diverse
  • 15. Net absorption by asset class 4,869,934 1,550,062 805,013 784,047 145,982 57,598 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Suburban Class A CBD Class A Suburban Class B CBD Class B CBD Class C Suburban Class C Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.) 14 Take-up of quality space continues to drive absorption gains, particularly in new construction Source: JLL Research 78.2% Class A share 19.3% Class B share 2.5% Class C share
  • 16. Net absorption by submarket 202,358 230,179 235,542 238,113 256,913 258,555 273,712 279,473 308,656 312,416 440,925 514,896 528,770 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Cupertino (Silicon Valley) Midtown (Atlanta) Mid-Cambridge (Boston) Greenway Plaza (Houston) Charlotte CBD Playa Vista (Los Angeles) Northwest (Austin) South Financial District (San Francisco) Seattle CBD River North (Chicago) East Loop (Chicago) Sunnyvale (Silicon Valley) Route 28 South (Northern Virginia) Quarterly net absorption (s.f.) 15 Despite muted occupancy growth, industry-heavy submarkets (especially suburban) led the way Source: JLL Research
  • 17. Net absorption by asset class -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Cumulativenetabsorption(%ofinventory) CBD Class A Suburban Class A CBD Class B Suburban Class B CBD Class C Suburban Class C 16 Flight to quality, industry drivers and more space make suburban Class A lead in occupancy growth Source: JLL Research +10.1% Suburban Class A +7.7% CBD Class A +3.1% Suburban Class B +2.1% CBD Class B +0.4% CBD Class C +0.4% Suburban Class C Cumulative net absorption (% of inventory)
  • 19. Total vacancy 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Totalvacancy(%) 18 Total vacancy remained largely flat as deliveries countered slower absorption Source: JLL Research 13.8% vs. ~14.7% Current cycle will likely have slightly higher cyclical low
  • 20. Total vacancy by asset class 11.5% 12.0% 12.2% 14.2% 15.4% 17.5% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% CBD Class C CBD Class A CBD Class B Suburban Class C Suburban Class A Suburban Class B Totalvacancy(%) 19 Quality and creative core asset vacancy remains limited; commodity dealing with surplus Source: JLL Research
  • 21. Total vacancy by asset class -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 VacancydeclinesinceQ12010(bp) CBD Class A Suburban Class A CBD Class B Suburban Class B CBD Class C Suburban Class C 20 As with absorption, vacancy has fallen fastest in quality suburban properties Source: JLL Research -510bp Suburban Class A -420bp CBD Class A -330bp Suburban Class B -300bp CBD Class B -170bp CBD Class C 150bp Suburban Class C Vacancy decline since Q1 2010
  • 22. Total vacancy by submarket 21.2% 12.0% 14.1% 17.3% 12.3% 13.9% 15.1% 30.6% 17.5% 4.5% 5.1% 5.5% 6.4% 7.2% 9.1% 10.4% 11.5% 11.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Tempe (Phoenix) Seaport District (Boston) Playa Vista (Los Angeles) East Loop (Chicago) Market Street East (Philadelphia) Times Square (New York) West (Minneapolis) Central Perimeter (Atlanta) Brickell (Miami) Total vacancy (%) Class A Class B 21 Class A/B variance wide in many markets, but commodity suffers from functional obsolescence Source: JLL Research – submarkets ranked by Class A vacancy
  • 23. Sublease vacancy 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Subleasevacancy(s.f.) 22 Even as sublease vacancy rises in Houston and begins to in the Bay Area, it fell in Q1 on aggregate Source: JLL Research
  • 24. Rents
  • 25. U.S. office clock (overall) 24 As landlords pushed rents up by 3.2 percent, markets move farther along in the cycle Source: JLL Research Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Dallas Jacksonville, Miami, Orange County New Jersey, Washington, DC Atlanta, New York, Portland, Tampa Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, Milwaukee, Oakland-East Bay, Orlando, Salt Lake City Baltimore, Detroit, Hartford, West Palm Beach Los Angeles, San Diego, Seattle-Bellevue Cleveland, Raleigh-Durham, Sacramento, St. Louis San Francisco Peninsula San Francisco Denver, Silicon Valley Phoenix Boston, United States Hampton Roads, Long Island, San Antonio Minneapolis Chicago, Indianapolis, Richmond Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Westchester County Austin, Nashville Houston Columbus Cincinnati, Fairfield County
  • 26. U.S. office clock (CBD) 25 CBDs are moving slightly faster than the market overall, entering peaking phase of the cycle Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Dallas, Downtown (New York), Los Angeles Denver Boston, Miami, San Diego, United States Midtown (New York) Midtown South (New York), Nashville Charlotte, Oakland CBD, Orlando, Philadelphia Atlanta, Fort Lauderdale, Portland Baltimore, Richmond Minneapolis, Seattle Chicago, Jacksonville Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Antonio, West Palm Beach Austin, Tampa Milwaukee, Raleigh-Durham, Sacramento San Francisco, San Jose CBD Columbus, St. Louis Salt Lake City Detroit, Hartford, Washington DC, White Plains Cleveland, Indianapolis Houston Fairfield County, Pittsburgh Source: JLL Research
  • 27. U.S. office clock (suburban) 26 Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Dallas Silicon Valley Miami, Phoenix Lehigh Valley, Northern NJCentral NJ, Columbus, Hartford, Northern DE, West Palm Beach Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Oakland-East Bay, Westchester County Fort Lauderdale, Hampton Roads, Orlando, Long Island, Raleigh-Durham, Philadelphia, Sacramento, San Antonio Baltimore Bellevue, Cambridge Boston, Orange County, Seattle, St. Louis, United States Atlanta, Jacksonville, Portland, Tampa Los Angeles, Nashville, San Diego, Seattle-Bellevue San Francisco Peninsula San Francisco Minneapolis, Salt Lake City Washington, DC Indianapolis Austin, Richmond Denver Southern NJ Houston Cincinnati, Fairfield County Detroit, Pittsburgh Source: JLL Research
  • 28. Quarterly asking rent growth -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Quarterlyrentgrowth(%) 27 Landlords confidence is still on the rise, with a 3.2-percent spike in rents the highest this cycle Source: JLL Research
  • 29. Rent growth by asset class -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 RentgrowthsinceQ12010(%) CBD Class A Suburban Class A CBD Class B Suburban Class B CBD Class C Suburban Class C 28 CBD Class A rent growth continues unabated, while suburbs and commodity see modest increases Source: JLL Research +14.4% Suburban Class A +29.0% CBD Class A +9.9% Suburban Class B +12.2% CBD Class B +13.8% CBD Class C +12.7% Suburban Class C Rent growth since Q1 2010
  • 30. CBD rent premium $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Averageaskingrent($p.s.f.) 29 The gap between CBD and suburban rents continues to rise without signs of slowing Source: JLL Research CBD rents are 62.3% higher than in the suburbs
  • 31. Rent growth by submarket 7.4% 7.9% 8.8% 8.9% 10.2% 11.9% 14.8% 16.5% 17.3% 18.5% 19.8% 20.9% 39.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Metropark (New Jersey) CBD (Washington, DC) Austin CBD Redmond (Seattle) Fort Lauderdale CBD River North (Chicago) South Financial District (San Francisco) Irvine Spectrum (Orange County) Santa Monica (Los Angeles) Portland CBD BWI/Anne Arundel (Baltimore) Gramercy Park (New York) Redwood City (SF Peninsula) Class B year-over-year rent growth (%) 30 As demand spills into the Class B sector, rents in many submarkets are rising appreciably Source: JLL Research
  • 32. Concessions 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 $22 $23 $24 $25 $26 $27 $28 $29 $30 $31 $32 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Freemonths TIallowance($p.s.f.) TI allowance ($ p.s.f.) Free months 31 Concessions have remained steady as new deliveries counter tightening conditions elsewhere Source: JLL Research – concessions based on 10-year term
  • 34. Under construction 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Underconstruction(s.f.) 33 A spike in starts boosted development activity to 96.8 m.s.f. in Q1 Source: JLL Research
  • 36. Construction starts 35 Active developers continue to boost the pipeline, with many confident to start fully spec projects Source: JLL Research A 1800 Owens Street 680,000 s.f. Kilroy 0.0% pre-leased 222 2nd Avenue S 386,000 s.f. Hines 19.9% pre-leased 425 Park Avenue 670,000 s.f. L&L 29.9% pre-leased 151 N Franklin Street 825,000 s.f. John Buck 48.5% pre-leased 3675 Market Street 300,000 s.f. BioMed 100.0% pre-leased The Boardwalk 537,224 s.f. Trammell Crow 0.0% pre-leased B C D E F A B C D E F
  • 37. Completions 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Completions(s.f.) 36 7.7 m.s.f. of the more than 44.0 m.s.f we expect to deliver in 2016 came to the market in Q1 Source: JLL Research
  • 38. Construction starts 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000 50,000,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 Completions(s.f.) Speculative (pre-leased) Speculative (available) BTS 37 As the development cycle nears its peak in 2016, deliveries will diminish slowly through 2019 Source: JLL Research
  • 39. Completions 260,000 270,614 287,200 297,583 342,000 406,600 445,000 459,186 496,505 572,173 916,136 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 Cupertino (Silicon Valley) Menlo Park (SF Peninsula) 128/Mass Pike (Boston) Northwest (Austin) Southwest (Washington, DC) Houston CBD Westchase (Houston) Richardson/Plano (Dallas) Far North Dallas Santa Clara (Silicon Valley) Sunnyvale (Silicon Valley) Quarterly completions (s.f.) 38 Deliveries were overwhelmingly concentrated in select submarkets during the first quarter Source: JLL Research Top submarkets Rest of U.S. 44.7%
  • 41. Following five consecutive years of strong growth, office transaction volumes increase by 1.0 percent year-on-year 40 $0.0 $50.0 $100.0 $150.0 $200.0 $250.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Officeinvestmentsalevolumes(billionsof$US) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: JLL Research, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions larger than $5.0m)
  • 42. Primary and secondary cap rates continue to decline 41 1.8% 4.2% 5.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 10-year Treasury (%) Primary cap rates (%) Secondary cap rates (%) Source: JLL Research, NCREIF, Board of Governors of Federal Reserve Despite the interest rate hike, the spread between office cap rates and the 10-year Treasury has widened slightly for primary and secondary markets
  • 43. Occupational markets remain strong yet disjointed from investment sales activity in Q1, notably in primary markets 42 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q12016highestabsorptionmarkets(thousandsofs.f.) Chicago Seattle Silicon Valley Austin Philadelphia Los Angeles Source: JLL Research
  • 44. Macro volatility, caution over pricing and limited asset availability spurs quarterly declines in most primary markets 43 Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 Primarymarketinvestmentvolumes(millionsof$US) Q1 2015 Q1 2016
  • 45. Secondary markets have strongest first quarter in three years, as primary markets in aggregate decline 44 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 Primarymarketinvestmentvolumes(millionsof$US) Primary Secondary Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
  • 46. 45 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annualcapratefluctuations Compressing Stable Softening Source: JLL Research, NCREIF; Includes 32 major office markets; Stable defined as markets seeing fluctuations within 10 basis points year-over-year. Cap rates continue to compress with nearly 94.0 percent of markets seeing compressing or stabilizing yields
  • 47. Germany dominates as top origin of inbound capital, surpassing active Asian and Canadian capital from prior two years 46 Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.) 24.0% 21.9% 15.3% 13.5% 9.0% 16.4% Norway Germany Canada Singapore South Korea All others 35.1% 15.8%15.5% 9.5% 5.6% 18.5% Canada China Germany South Korea Hong Kong All others Most active foreign investors (2014) Most active foreign investors (2015) 37% 22% 12% 10% 6% 2% Germany Qatar South Korea Canada China United Kingdom Most active foreign investors (Q1 2016)
  • 48. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016 Julia Georgules Director – Office Research +1 415 354 6908 Julia.Georgules@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research +1 202 719 6295 Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Sean Coghlan Director – Investor Research +1 215 988 5556 Sean.Coghlan@am.jll.com Rachel Johnson Research Analyst – Capital Markets +1 312 228 3017 Rachel.Johnson@am.jll.com