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U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
The labor market bounced back in
June, but slack is diminishing
U.S. employment situation: June 2016 July 8, 2016
June 2016 employment summary
• Employment growth returns with strength after a very weak May
- June saw 287,000 net new jobs added to the U.S. labor market, a return to healthy growth after a weak May that saw gains revised
downward to just 11,000 jobs. This is the highest monthly figure in eight months and will be reassuring to decision makers such as the
Federal Reserve.
- A 414,000-person increase in the labor force brought participation to 62.7 percent and pushed up unemployment slightly to 4.9 percent.
Still below the 5.0 percent threshold, unemployment is beginning to approach its cyclical low and is already “full” for white-collar workers.
- Job growth was broad-based, although non-office industries such as health, leisure and hospitality, trade and construction continued to
lead monthly and annual increases.
• Metro areas have minimal slack, which could hinder further gains in 2016 and 2017
- Many metro areas are posting unemployment below 4.0 percent. In particular, San Francisco, Austin, Nashville, Denver, Dallas, Silicon
Valley and Boston all fall below the 3.5 percent mark, while more diversified geographies such as Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami,
Philadelphia and Phoenix are in the 4.5 to 5.5 percent range.
- As a result, we have seen and expect further gradual slowdowns in the rate of job growth in hot markets as employers run up against talent
shortages. Accelerated job and office occupancy growth is likely in diversified markets before they too reach similar tightness.
• Wage growth is up and benefits from continued low inflation
- Annual wage growth rose by 10 basis points to 2.6 percent, led by information and a number of non-office industries. Wage growth has
decoupled from job creation, with the rate of the former rising as the latter flatlines.
- Although there is room for growth, wage growth remains meaningful as the Consumer Price Index continues to stall at 1.0 percent,
providing for further purchasing power and consumer expenditures to drive quarterly GDP gains.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
June 2016 U.S. labor market at a glance
+287,000
(69 consecutive months
of growth)
1-month net change
+2,451,000
(+1.7% y-o-y)
12-month change
+777,000
10-year average annual growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.9%
Unemployment rate
-40bp
12-month change in unemployment
62.7%
Labor force participation rate
5,788,000
(+3.7% y-o-y)
Job openings
5,092,000
(+0.4% y-o-y)
Hires
2,912,000
(+8.6% y-o-y)
Quits
3
After May’s sharp slowdown (and further downward revision),
June bolted back with 287,000 net new jobs
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
106,000
122,000
221,000
183,000
164,000
196,000
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
160,000
150,000
161,000
225,000
203,000
214,000
197,000
280,000
141,000
203,000
199,000
201,000
149,000
202,000
164,000
237,000
274,000
84,000
166,000
188,000
225,000
330,000
236,000
286,000
249,000
213,000
250,000
221,000
423,000
329,000
221,000
265,000
84,000
251,000
273,000
228,000
277,000
150,000
149,000
295,000
280,000
262,000
168,000
233,000
186,000
144,000
11,000
287,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1-monthnetchange
4
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment rose slightly to 4.9 percent as the labor force
expanded by 414,000 and participation rose
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
Even with slowing monthly job growth, openings continue to
rise and stand at a record high of 5.8 million
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Jobopenings(thousands)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
ConsumerconfidenceIndex
Consumer confidence jumped up by nearly six points, but is
still flat over the course of the 2016
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
7
As wages continue to slowly rise on aggregate, they are doing so
as inflation barely maintains 1.0 percent growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI data as of March 2016
8
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12-month%change
Hourly wage growth CPI growth
1.4%
1.9%
2.2%
2.4%
2.5%
2.8%
3.4%
3.7%
4.3%
4.8%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Other services
Education and health
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Trade, transportation and utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Mining and logging
Leisure and hospitality
Information
12-month % change in wages
Apart from information, non-office sectors of the economy are
leading wage growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – office-using sectors in red
9
-9.4
-5.0
-0.1
0.0
2.9
3.0
3.6
11.0
13.0
14.0
15.2
16.0
22.0
29.9
38.0
44.0
58.4
59.0
59.0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Transportation and warehousing
Mining and logging
Motor vehicles and parts
Construction
Utilities
Durable goods
Wholesale trade
Nondurable goods
Other services
Manufacturing
Temporary help services
Financial activities
Government
Retail trade
Professional and business services
Information
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health services
1-month net change (thousands)
Most sectors have returned to growth mode after contractions
in May; non-office continues to dominate
10
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-128.0
-76.0
-29.0
8.0
17.4
17.5
36.0
38.4
47.0
54.7
71.0
129.0
163.0
217.0
312.8
413.0
497.0
587.9
668.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Temporary help services
Information
Transportation and warehousing
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Other services
Government
Financial activities
Construction
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Professional and business services
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
12-month net change (thousands)
668.0
497.0
413.0
312.8
163.0
397.2
Education and health PBS
Leisure and hospitality Retail trade
Financial activities Manufacturing
All other jobs
Over the course of 2016, annual levels of growth have yet to
budge and composition remains consistent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
Core subsectors added 83.8 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Unemploymentrateforbachelor’sdegreeholders(%)
A slight bump in the participation rate increased white-collar
unemployment to 2.5 percent, but still well below official rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
Returning workers brought information employment back to
normal levels, while finance and PBS are steadier
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
After contracting by upwards of 8.1 percent earlier this year,
energy is finally stabilizing
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2015.
14
12-month%change(jobs)
Unemployment claims ticked up slightly, but the moving
average is stable at 269,000 per week
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
15
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Claims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Hiresandquits(thousands)
Hires Quits
Hires and quits are still at near-cyclical highs, but have
moderated
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Month after month, tech and Sun Belt markets continue to
surpass the national rate of job growth by more than 100bp
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
17
Dallas
4.6%
Orlando
4.2%Austin
3.9%
Silicon Valley
3.7%
Phoenix
3.6%
Seattle
3.6%
0.2%
1.2%
1.3%
2.0%
2.1%
2.3%
2.4%
2.6%
3.0%
3.4%
3.6%
4.6%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
Houston
Boston
Chicago
New York
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
Los Angeles
South Florida
Atlanta
San Francisco
Seattle
Dallas
12-month % change
As talent shortages make hiring more difficult, major market
employment growth now mostly below 3.5 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
Contrary to the official rate, total unemployment dropped by
10bp to 9.6 percent; decreases have slowed and nearing low
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Totalunemployemtn(%)
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
The 414,000-person expansion of the labor force boosted the
participation rate by 10bp to 62.7 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
©2016 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com

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July 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook

  • 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 The labor market bounced back in June, but slack is diminishing U.S. employment situation: June 2016 July 8, 2016
  • 2. June 2016 employment summary • Employment growth returns with strength after a very weak May - June saw 287,000 net new jobs added to the U.S. labor market, a return to healthy growth after a weak May that saw gains revised downward to just 11,000 jobs. This is the highest monthly figure in eight months and will be reassuring to decision makers such as the Federal Reserve. - A 414,000-person increase in the labor force brought participation to 62.7 percent and pushed up unemployment slightly to 4.9 percent. Still below the 5.0 percent threshold, unemployment is beginning to approach its cyclical low and is already “full” for white-collar workers. - Job growth was broad-based, although non-office industries such as health, leisure and hospitality, trade and construction continued to lead monthly and annual increases. • Metro areas have minimal slack, which could hinder further gains in 2016 and 2017 - Many metro areas are posting unemployment below 4.0 percent. In particular, San Francisco, Austin, Nashville, Denver, Dallas, Silicon Valley and Boston all fall below the 3.5 percent mark, while more diversified geographies such as Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, Philadelphia and Phoenix are in the 4.5 to 5.5 percent range. - As a result, we have seen and expect further gradual slowdowns in the rate of job growth in hot markets as employers run up against talent shortages. Accelerated job and office occupancy growth is likely in diversified markets before they too reach similar tightness. • Wage growth is up and benefits from continued low inflation - Annual wage growth rose by 10 basis points to 2.6 percent, led by information and a number of non-office industries. Wage growth has decoupled from job creation, with the rate of the former rising as the latter flatlines. - Although there is room for growth, wage growth remains meaningful as the Consumer Price Index continues to stall at 1.0 percent, providing for further purchasing power and consumer expenditures to drive quarterly GDP gains. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2
  • 3. June 2016 U.S. labor market at a glance +287,000 (69 consecutive months of growth) 1-month net change +2,451,000 (+1.7% y-o-y) 12-month change +777,000 10-year average annual growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4.9% Unemployment rate -40bp 12-month change in unemployment 62.7% Labor force participation rate 5,788,000 (+3.7% y-o-y) Job openings 5,092,000 (+0.4% y-o-y) Hires 2,912,000 (+8.6% y-o-y) Quits 3
  • 4. After May’s sharp slowdown (and further downward revision), June bolted back with 287,000 net new jobs 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 166,000 188,000 225,000 330,000 236,000 286,000 249,000 213,000 250,000 221,000 423,000 329,000 221,000 265,000 84,000 251,000 273,000 228,000 277,000 150,000 149,000 295,000 280,000 262,000 168,000 233,000 186,000 144,000 11,000 287,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-monthnetchange 4 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 5. Unemployment rose slightly to 4.9 percent as the labor force expanded by 414,000 and participation rose 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 5
  • 6. Even with slowing monthly job growth, openings continue to rise and stand at a record high of 5.8 million Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Jobopenings(thousands)
  • 7. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 ConsumerconfidenceIndex Consumer confidence jumped up by nearly six points, but is still flat over the course of the 2016 Source: JLL Research, Conference Board 7
  • 8. As wages continue to slowly rise on aggregate, they are doing so as inflation barely maintains 1.0 percent growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI data as of March 2016 8 -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12-month%change Hourly wage growth CPI growth
  • 9. 1.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 3.4% 3.7% 4.3% 4.8% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Other services Education and health Financial activities Professional and business services Trade, transportation and utilities Construction Manufacturing Mining and logging Leisure and hospitality Information 12-month % change in wages Apart from information, non-office sectors of the economy are leading wage growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – office-using sectors in red 9
  • 10. -9.4 -5.0 -0.1 0.0 2.9 3.0 3.6 11.0 13.0 14.0 15.2 16.0 22.0 29.9 38.0 44.0 58.4 59.0 59.0 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Transportation and warehousing Mining and logging Motor vehicles and parts Construction Utilities Durable goods Wholesale trade Nondurable goods Other services Manufacturing Temporary help services Financial activities Government Retail trade Professional and business services Information Health care and social assistance Leisure and hospitality Education and health services 1-month net change (thousands) Most sectors have returned to growth mode after contractions in May; non-office continues to dominate 10 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 11. -128.0 -76.0 -29.0 8.0 17.4 17.5 36.0 38.4 47.0 54.7 71.0 129.0 163.0 217.0 312.8 413.0 497.0 587.9 668.0 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Mining and logging Durable goods Manufacturing Utilities Motor vehicles and parts Temporary help services Information Transportation and warehousing Nondurable goods Wholesale trade Other services Government Financial activities Construction Retail trade Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services Health care and social assistance Education and health services 12-month net change (thousands) 668.0 497.0 413.0 312.8 163.0 397.2 Education and health PBS Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Financial activities Manufacturing All other jobs Over the course of 2016, annual levels of growth have yet to budge and composition remains consistent Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 Core subsectors added 83.8 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.
  • 12. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Unemploymentrateforbachelor’sdegreeholders(%) A slight bump in the participation rate increased white-collar unemployment to 2.5 percent, but still well below official rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 12
  • 13. Returning workers brought information employment back to normal levels, while finance and PBS are steadier -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Information Professional and business services Financial activities Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 13
  • 14. After contracting by upwards of 8.1 percent earlier this year, energy is finally stabilizing -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2015. 14 12-month%change(jobs)
  • 15. Unemployment claims ticked up slightly, but the moving average is stable at 269,000 per week Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 15 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  • 16. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Hiresandquits(thousands) Hires Quits Hires and quits are still at near-cyclical highs, but have moderated Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 16
  • 17. Month after month, tech and Sun Belt markets continue to surpass the national rate of job growth by more than 100bp Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 17 Dallas 4.6% Orlando 4.2%Austin 3.9% Silicon Valley 3.7% Phoenix 3.6% Seattle 3.6%
  • 18. 0.2% 1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Houston Boston Chicago New York Philadelphia Washington, DC Los Angeles South Florida Atlanta San Francisco Seattle Dallas 12-month % change As talent shortages make hiring more difficult, major market employment growth now mostly below 3.5 percent Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 18
  • 19. Contrary to the official rate, total unemployment dropped by 10bp to 9.6 percent; decreases have slowed and nearing low 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Totalunemployemtn(%) Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 19
  • 20. The 414,000-person expansion of the labor force boosted the participation rate by 10bp to 62.7 percent Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
  • 21. ©2016 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com