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Semelhante a Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10
Semelhante a Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10 (20)
Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10
- 1. Leaders Make the FutureExternal Future Forces Affecting Leaders of Cooperative Extension Bob Johansen Extension Directors and Administrators National Meeting, Tampa Bay March 17, 2010 © 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1235
- 2. 2
- 3. A VUCA World Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous
- 5. 5
- 6. Anything happening on the net—beyond your device. “The network is the computer” will finally come true. The cloud will transform learning and leadership… Cloud Computing
- 7. Networks that get better the more people who use them. The Cloud
- 8. Reciprocity is the currency of the cloud The Cloud
- 9. if you are 25 or less, the definition of a “generation” is about 6 years…only those 13 or less are true digital natives
- 10. 1964 World’s Fair Futurama 1939 World’s Fair Futurama 10
- 12. 12
- 15. Maker Instinct|A culture of “makers” and DIY spirit will transform how stuff is designed, manufactured, and distributed. The word “consumer” will become obsolete. The word “student” may be as well. Everyone will be a maker/learner. Signal: Maker Faire is an annual celebration of do-it-yourself where hundreds of “makers” show off their projects to 100,000 visitors. http://www.makerfaire.com
- 17. INSTRUCTABLES: a brand that is a community of makers
- 18. 18 A Contest on the Instructables Platform
- 19. Maker Instinct applied to lending… close and personal 19
- 20. Institute for the Future 10-Year Forecast 2009: voice and text < 2019: smartphone world computer voice, video, web, GPS, sensors
- 21. 21 innovation from diversity|Emerging markets will be important sources of innovations. Engaging with communities in authentic ways could lead to new partnerships and INSIGHTS for all involved. Signal: GroupeDanone built local microplants in Bangladesh where the lack of refrigerated storage prevented large scale operations. Local merchants sell the products out of hand-carried coolers. http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/133/as-the-world-turns.html
- 22. Thrive 365 Plus: Kraft Foods prototype for people with diabetes to guide their eating and their health
- 23. 23
- 26. four rows,four strategic responses to sustainability Commons Markets Policy Science & technology
- 27. seven columns, seven perspectives on sustainability Human well-being Culture and society The economy Infrastructure Natural resources Ecosystems Governance
- 28. The Global Health Economy Cosmetics Fashion TraditionalHealthcare Food andsupplements Retail Security Buildingsupplies Wellness Financialservices Consumerelectronics Information
- 29. The Global Health Economy Includes Sustainability Cosmetics Fashion TraditionalHealthcare Food andsupplements Retail Security Buildingsupplies Wellness Financialservices Consumerelectronics Information
- 30. 30 Signal:health resources in grocery stores…
- 31. 31 Signal:mobile health tools, anytime anyplace…
- 33. 33
- 34. 34 The VUCA World Training and education = success
- 35. 35
- 36. Dilemmas…Leaders LIKE the space betweenjudging too soonanddeciding too late
- 37. Threadless: innovation through rapid SHOPPER PROTOTPYING
- 39. 39
- 40. PEOPLE WILL CHOOSE THEIR OWN CLOUD OF VIRTUAL RESOURCES TO FILTER THEIR EXPERIENCE OF THE PHYSICAL WORLD
- 41. virtual overlay on the shopping experience|Much more information will be digitized. From safety concerns to environmental stats, if Target doesn’t make its data transparent, someone else will—and they may be wrong. This kind of transparency isn't about self-righteous claims; rather, it’s about honest, authentic, quiet transparency. Signal: The GoodGuideenales shoppers to search 70,000+ food, personal care, and household products “to see what’s really beaneath the label.” http://www.goodguide.com
- 43. 43
- 44. 44
- 46. 46
- 47. 47
- 48. 48
- 49. 49
- 50. 50
- 52. Amplified learners|New technologies of cooperation will enable a shift toward skills that leverage the collective intelligence of others. Signal: Daily Strength is an online support group platform with 500+ discussion groups for health issues and life challenges. http://www.dailystrength.org/
- 53. “ When we change the way we communicate, we change society —Clay Shirky ”
- 54. Crowdsourced health 54
- 55. 55 Beyond today’s social media…
- 56. video will be the medium of choice for guests 56
- 58. The younger you are, the better your video literacy
- 59. 59 How do you turn attention into engagement in the cloud?
- 60. 60 Using fun to engage guests and potential guests with a brand…Volkswagen?
- 61. 61
- 63. 63 diasporas |Diasporas are dispersed populations, physical and virtual, with shared roots and strong values. Amplified by social media, these diasporas will emerge as new markets and new economies where identity is the core story. Diasporas will drive innovation, growth, and disruption. Signal: Tuangos are buying collectives that form via the Chinese language Internet. Consumers connect around a desired product, and then negotiate with the seller for a bulk discount.
- 64. 64
- 66. commons
- 67. commons: a resource held and managed bythose who use it
- 68. traditional commons: geographically bounded
- 69. traditional commons: subject to depletion
- 70. from traditional commons to new commons
- 71. 71
- 72. Waiting for image from Kelly Traver
- 73. 73
- 74. New Commons: checklist for success Evolvability: give everyone freedom to make improvements Scale: take advantage of everyone’s contribution Relevance: offer ambient information to visitors Abundance: reverse scarcity through use of social capital Adaptive emotions: harness awe and wonder Optimism: amplify hope … and make it FUN!
- 75. HYPOTHESIS Innovation in the cloud will be the biggest learning opportunity in history. hypothesis:
- 76. Reciprocity is the currency of the cloud Thinking ahead, what should be Cooperative Extension’s reciprocity? The Cloud
- 77. 77
- 78. Live long by looking long. —Tao Te Ching 78
- 79. 79
- 80. Leaders Make the FutureExternal Future Forces Affecting Leaders of Cooperative Extension Bob Johansen Extension Directors and Administrators National Meeting, Tampa Bay March 17, 2010 © 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1235
- 82. New commons: A resource created and maintainedby those who use it
- 83. New commons: Intangible plus material value
- 84. What if you wanted to… … transform unhealthy behaviors into healthy behaviors?
- 87. 87
- 88. 88
- 89. video will be a part of almost every organizational strategy
- 90. video technologies will transform the inert surfaces to interactive venues…anything can be a display
- 91. amateur videos will mix (even more) with broadcast media
- 92. griefing will be part of everyday life
- 93. from passive individual viewing to interactive engagement
- 96. THE BOOK OF PROVOCATION |faith in the future | conversations
- 99. 2009 Ten-Year Forecast Superstructing the Decade Kathi VianDirector, Ten-Year Forecast Institute for the Future Ten-Year Forecast Annual Retreat April 20–21, 2009 © 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1229
- 100. 100
- 101. virtual overlay on the physical world |Sophisticated technologies for sensing, recording, and communicating data are being embedded in our surroundings. Raw materials, products, factories, and entire ecoystems will tell their own stories. Signal: TCHO Chocolate and FXPAL are experimenting with sensors and mixed-reality systems to instrument the factory floor for fine-grained monitoring, optimization, and even iPhone control. http://palblog.fxpal.com/?p=120
- 102. Open innovation 102 Sage Vision: Create an open access, integrative bionetwork evolved by contributor scientists working to eliminate human disease
Notas do Editor
- Tim O’Reilly.
- http://www.lendingclub.com/home.actionhttp://www.kiva.org/http://ow.ly/adQC
- Thrive 365 ties directly to the IFTF forecast around the quantified self, considering your body and health as a data system. Already, a growing number of individuals are using new sensors, social networks, online data repositories, open-access science journals, and sheer discipline to view their bodies, minds, and spirits through the lens of data. “Unless something can be measured, it cannot be improved,” wrote Kevin Kelly on the Quantified Self blog. Whether the technology is a pedometer or an advanced biosensor to collect personal data, the next step is uploading, analyzing, visualizing, and sharing the info online. And as the sensors become integrated into entire systems and interface with personal mobile devices, the techniques of the quantified self will become more pervasive. Today's pioneering practitioners of self-surveillance, many who are driven by the need to manage medical conditions, point toward a future where we will continuously monitor our personal states in great detail. And even more importantly, we'll be able to close the feedback loop by reprogramming our lives for improved performance, health, and happiness. “For a certain type of person, data is the most important thing you can trust,” Quantified Self pioneer Gary Wolf has said.MEMO FROM MIKE HASKINS:Thrive 365 Plus: Test and Learn Overview OverviewThrive 365, Kraft Fods’s new internet based diabetic eating program, is scheduled for release in Q1 of 2010. While the logical next step for the program will be to extend the base internet application to the mobile platform, the Digital Innovations group doesn’t want to stop there. What happens when you combine the leading edge diabetic eating program with the flexibility of a mobile platform, and incorporate wireless health monitoring equipment such as a heart rate monitor and glucose meter? Some very interesting possibilities come to mind: Automatically capture and track glucose meter readings.Automatically capture and track physical activity levelsIntegration of dietary information, glucose levels, and physical activity (exercise) levels, giving the diabetic unparalleled insight into the relationship and impact of these three key health factors. A single device platform for managing diet, exercise, and glucose levels Key ContactsPrimary client: Brandi Pitts, Dir Mktg Health & Wellness, New Product DevelopmentThrive 365 Developer: Rodale - Judith.Dasilva@Rodale.com - 610-967-8373David.Krivda@Rodale.com - 610-967-7918 Heart rate Monitor: Zephyr Technology – Dennis Thorpe Dennis.Thorpe@zephyr-technology.comBluetooth Glucose Meter: Entra Health Systems – Richard Strobridgerstrobridge@entrahealthsystems.com Validate Bluetooth Connectivity Objective: Prove out and document Bluetooth connectivity between the heart rate monitor, glucose meter and an Android phoneTasks Procure Bluetooth heart rate monitor and developer SDK: doneProcure Bluetooth glucose meter: doneProcure Android phoneValidate and document Bluetooth connectivityOutput: Documentation on health monitor equipment connectivityThrive 365 PlusObjective: Extend the Thrive 365 Program capabilities to include glucose and physical activity monitoring on a mobile platformSteps:Conduct Brainstorming session with Health & Wellness, New Product Development for ideas on how glucose and physical activity monitoring can integrate with Thrive 365Capture and bring to life these ideas in a video that showcases the possibilities of Thrive 365 Plus and provides a communications channel for the project.Create a working Thrive 365 Plus prototype.Additional ResourcesBrainstorming facilitation services that can facilitate the brainstorming session and capture those ideas in the form of a concept video.A partner company who can take the ideas and bring them to life.Able to develop for the Android platformFamiliar with Bluetooth protocolAble to develop prototypes rapidlyAble to create video demonstrating the concept
- WHAT IF? Healthy places become visible as the geospatial web reveals invisible qualities creating place based health experiences.No one can predict the future but you can think about it systematically. To do this you need to pay attention to what is changing, make sense of its implications, and apply what you have learned to prepare for the future. We call this process….the foresight-insight-action cycle and it is intended to help you anticipate the future, make better strategic decisions today by understanding what the future might hold.
- In response to the the scenario, participants were asked to “play a card”; a microforecast. Forecast because it needed to be a statement about the future, looking a decade out. Micro because it needed to be the length of an entry on Twitter; 140 characters.The ‘first level’ cards// participants could play// were positive or dark imagination; in other words—in response to this scenario what is the best and the worst thing that might happen?The ‘second level’ cards & beyond, were chances to “build” on the first level microforecasts—either on your own microforecasts or on someone else’s. These were adaptation (how might this play out differently), momentum (if this happens, what might happen next?), antagonism (I disagree—instead x, y, z would happen), or investigation card (for people who were curious to understand more.)
- Designer Social Networks: Algorithm based Decisions and Interactions As we increase the variety of things we do online, and the number of sites we do them on, we are creating expanded personal digital footprints. When we couple these with online social networking, location aware data, and web analytics, we get a host of new ways to measure and understand our own “social graph”—and by extension, ourselves and our own roles within those networks. We will learn to see ourselves through the lens of larger networks, each with its own distinct and quantifiable characteristics. We will begin to measure, design, and cultivate our relationships in new ways to create the outcomes that we want. social fabric under a microscope:Get ready to know more about your friends than you ever thought you could. We are still in the early stages of using personal networking tools (from Facebook to LinkedIn to FriendFeed), which allow us to collect, quantify, and analyze the interactions and knowledge flowing across networks. Today we can see how many people have read a blog post or visited a website, or where they are located in the world. The next step will be new levels of analysis and visualization, providing valuable information about the people we connect to. For instance, we might be able to see exactly which companies’ employees are generating the most relevant knowledge within an industry, the real-time geographic viral effect of individual speakers at an event, or the socioeconomic stratification of all the people in someone’s network. Friending for positive contagionScientific research on social networks now suggests that individual behaviors, moods, and activities have a measurable impact on people who are separated by two or even three degrees within a real-world (not online) network. Nicholas Christakis and James Fowley’s recent book, Connected: The Surprising Power of our Social Networks and How they Shape Our Lives, spreads the surprising results of their research demonstrating that individual physical and mental health status, such as happiness or obesity, is “contagious.” The behaviors of even one person touch people who don’t even know each other but are connected through the friend of a friend, influencing them for bad, or for good. Given that, we will be much more vigilant about who is in our network. Not only will we be able to to plot and track our own changing social graph—we will want to know what’s going on with our friends’ friends as well and what impact this has on us. We will want to design our networks so that these contribute to our own health, happiness, or whatever else we want to achieve. New relationship economiesuSocial, an advertising firm, is in the business of selling Twitter followers and Facebook Friends, as well as getting people’s information on the front-page of social bookmarking sites like Digg and Yahoo!Buzz. For a mere $147 the company promises to add 2500 new Twitter followers to your account, and less than $200 will produce 1000 Facebook fans. As the value of online social networks increases there will be more of these kinds of services, providing online social connections for cash. At an individual level it will also become easier to assess the financial and social value of our personal online activities. We’ll know precisely who we influence and which people provide us with the most valuable knowledge in turn. By seeing ourselves as inputs into other people’s information systems, we will begin to reshape what we do so as to provide optimum value for the people we want to pay attention to us—whether they are potential employers or new friends. http://usocial.net/ TECH ENABLERS<page 2> Deep Web: semantic engineering of linked dataSensory Data Interfaces: re-routing perceptionPervasive Wireless: continuous connectionLocation-based computing: everything knows where it isCloud Computing: supercomputing on demand Signals Twitter TimesTwitter Times is a free web service that uses your social graph (i.e., your entire Twitter network of people you follow and those who follow you) to create a personalized newsfeed in a newspaper format. The links that are being shared by the most people within your network are presented as news items and are updated on an hourly basis. Tools like Twitter Times will drive new network designs as people add and subtract friends to see how it changes the kinds of news they get. “News and Blogs Selected by People You Trust”: Tim O’Reilly’s personal Twitter Times, accessed at 4:53 pm PST, http://twittertim.es/timOReilly Friend Statistics on FacebookFacebook, Orkut, and other SNS are ground zero for introducing programmable relationships to the general public. Along with apps that tell you what 1970s B-movie most represents you, there are a growing number of programs that analyze your Facebook friends. Mostly used for fun, these apps are popularizing the idea that you gain insight into your own identity and status by understanding more about who and what you are linked to.source: http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=34796841029 FriendorFollow.comFriendorFollow.com visualizes the different levels of reciprocity within a Twitter network. After inputting any Twitter user name the site divides his or her network into three parts: 1) Following–people who the user is following but who do not follow her; 2) Fans—those who are following him but whom he is not following; and 3) Friends—those who she follows and who also follow her. In essence, it gives a view the way attention is distributed throughout someone’s network. What’s more, FriendorFollow also delivers an Excel spreadsheet of each of the three groups, complete with screen name and user name, location, number of followers, length of time on Twitter, and more. Some power users are already beginning to use these tools to analyze the state of their friends and followers on a regular basis. Excel spreadsheet, LynJ’s “Fans”http://friendorfollow.com What difference does this make?The ability to measure our social relationships in new ways will change our perception of what we give and receive from others. We will be more aware of how sharing happens, and of the consequences of connecting with someone else. More subtle categories of relationships. Thinking of social relationships as information systems is a radical departure for most of us—but digitized sociality encourages us to do this. Over the next few years we will learn that different people in our networks do different things for us, some that we never noticed before. People we do not even know could turn out to be more important than we thought for our professional or personal development, while others will be reevaluated. In search of health, happiness, and competitive advantage, people will want help designing networks for particular effects—both in real life and online. There will be a growing demand for tools and processes for structuring personal online networks. People will need ways to track, analyze, and visualize the changing status of their networks. There will also be an explosion of services and tools that make matches between people based on proprietary algorithms and evolving network science. Increased social isolation of those with perceived undesirable attributes. As social network effects become more well-known, unhealthy or unhappy people may find themselves with fewer social connections, both online and offline. Some of the people they know will worry about “catching” their behavior or passing it on throughout their entire network. Increased social isolation, in turn, has been shown to worsen disease. Continuing trade-offs between open and closed networks. Many people will be uncomfortable with the level of transparency that will surround all kinds of online human connections, and will retreat to private, more protected networks. By doing this, however, they will lose the capacity to participate in the new relationship economies that emerge. Others will flock to open systems precisely because of the new analytic capacities, eager to express their value in new ways. Real-time networking feedback will change the way we understand the consequences of our actions. When we can clearly see that a particular kind comment causes us to lose the attention of people we value, we will begin to modify those comments, tailoring our information output more and more selectively. As Michael Silverton, a Silicon Valley engineer who is deeply engaged in collaborative life-streaming, recently reminded himself, “…it's going to be persistently important in the short to mid term to NOT [MESS] AROUND TOO MUCH or risk losing access to MINDS that dramatically enhance one's own extended cognition.” What to do differently? Organizations will be challenged in two ways. First, they will need to continue their efforts to leverage digital connections, exploring new programmable relationships internally as individuals and as employees, and also with their partners. Second, they will need to mitigate research and analysis practices of consumer networks that people experience as intrusive. To engage consumers, join the crowd. Despite the rapid advances in our ability to create value from digital sociality, we are quickly approaching mass social network fatigue. In the next few years we will see people pull back from their participation in fragmented networks and try to get more control over just one or two. Businesses who want to engage people in a network are best off finding ways to subscribe or tap into people’s identities on pre-existing social networks. To engage employees, create your own. There will be more and more value in having an organization that is actually participating in an online network. Very few organizations have succeeded in creating this and as a result, employees are generally sharing their best ideas in public domain networks like Twitter, LinkedIn, or FriendFeed. As long as they don’t share anything proprietary, there’s nothing wrong with them doing this: they create social capital for themselves and for the organization. But where companies are losing is in NOT simultaneously capturing public employee data streams, adding analysis and visualization, and making use of them internally. From this we could even start to see new kinds of top-down programmed relationships. Open up some of your code. The micro-blogging site Twitter has led to a blossoming of digital relationship metrics and tools for creating more value from one’s personal network. Behind Twitter’s success lie open APIs that encourage others to improvise on Twitter’s data stream. The result? Waves of innovative analysis tools that make people more dependent than ever on Twitter. There’s no guarantee that the site will hold onto its position—other companies (Facebook, Friendfeed) are trying to replicate much of its functionality—but the decision to let other people apply their own creativity to the network has resulted in loads of new insights at the intersection of network science and real people. Make yourself valuable to the people whose data you analyze. People know that businesses are analyzing their personal data. And as we all become better at doing our own analysis, this awareness will grow even more. If a business can actually provide something that an individual wants—tracking purchases, for instance, or discovering patterns in online searches—the business has an opportunity to become a node that is programmed into that person’s network rather than a nosy corporation to be avoided.
- Numerous social scientists, including Clay Shirky, have shown that “there is a steep decline from a few wildly active participants to a large group of barely active participants … this is the general pattern in social media. The most active participant is gener- ally much more active than the participant in the number two slot, and far more active than average. A common power-law distribution across all emerging participatory systems.”17 To the uninitiated, a large number of people barely doing anything could seem like a mark of failure. But systems can effectively account for, and capitalize on, this variation. Are there micro- tasks or one-off tasks requiring minimal effort that individuals at the bottom of the distribution curve can successfully complete? Are there large-scale, more ambitious tasks that the top users can tackle to more effectively channel their extreme enthusiasm for the project? Crucially, all levels of participants are needed, not just the peak users. Those all-stars are performing for the barely active users, and enjoying the experience of leading the moderately active users. In this way, the community resembles a pyramid of participation, which is a term first coined by game company 42 Entertainment and now frequently used by many online game designers to describe their participation models.18 Emotionally, the base of the pyramid actively supports the top, even if they are making far fewer concrete contributions. But effectively, the peak supports the entire community and the larger goals of the project, by accepting the weight of the majority of contributions.
- ATTRIBUTION: http://www.flickr.com/photos/peyri/2064138696/When we think of commons, we often think of traditional commons like a grazing commons…
- ATTRIBUTION: http://www.flickr.com/photos/peyri/2064138696/When we think of commons, we often think of traditional commons like a grazing commons…
- ATTRIBUTION: http://www.flickr.com/photos/peyri/2064138696/
- ATTRIBUTION: http://www.flickr.com/photos/peyri/2064138696/
- ATTRIBUTION: http://www.flickr.com/photos/peyri/2064138696/
- For example, I got this photo from flicker… a site that supports a photo commons…photos that are licensed by a creative commons license that anyone can use for certain purposes, generally with attribution…Now, new commons are a little different from traditional commons…
- ============Earlier this year, IBM researcher Martin Watternberg joined forces with Clay Shirky to calculate the rough sum of thought hours required to get to the current state of Wikipedia—“every page, every edit, every line of code, in every language that Wikipedia exists in.”6 Their “back of the envelope” calculation came out to 100 million thought hours. As daunting as this number seems, participation bandwidth may in fact be increasing quickly enough to sustain many projects at this level. Shirky notes that in the United States alone, people annually spend a to- tal of 200 billion hours watching television. If all of that were converted into mass collab engagement, the United States alone would produce the equivalent 2,000 Wikipedia-like projects a year.