IFA held an online briefing on Wednesday evening, 3rd August 2022 at 8pm, to update members on the Government’s decision on sectoral emissions ceilings and its potential implications for Irish farmers.

1. Macro-agents of influence
Karol Kissane
Senior Policy Executive

2. International Dimension

3. United Nations
Framework
Convention on
Climate Change
1992 1997
Kyoto Protocol
2015
Paris Agreement EU Green Deal
2019
EU Farm-to-
Fork
2021
EU Climate Law
EU Fit-for-55
Package
AgClimatise
(Net Zero 2050)
Carbon Action & Low
Carbon Development
(Amendment) Act, 2021
Back to the Future

4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
Task Force on National GHG Inventories
• Develops and refines an internationally-agreed
methodology for the calculation and reporting
of national GHG emissions and removals.
• In 2006 IPCC Guidelines were agreed
• Refinements may be required, taking into
account scientific and other technical advances.
• Last refinement was in 2019, with previous
refinement in 2013

5. Paris Agreement (2016) -Agriculture
• Recognizing “The fundamental priority of safeguarding food
security and ending hunger, and the particular vulnerabilities of
food production systems to the adverse impacts of climate
change”
• “in a manner that does not threaten food production”
• “parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as
appropriate, carbon sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse
gasses…. including forestry”

6. EU Green Deal / Fit for 55
• Commission’s Joint Research Centre
– Agricultural Production 15%
• According to the report, the
biodiversity and farm to fork
strategies, together with the new
common agricultural policy, are
expected greenhouse gas emissions
in EU, but emissions outside EU –
66% of savings will be leaked
GHG emissions by at least
55% by 2030 compared to 1990
levels and to achieve climate
neutrality in 2050.
LULUCF - Net removals of 310
Mt by 2030
Combined LULUCF &
Agriculture - climate neutral by
2035.

7. • There are three main GHGs:
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
• Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
• For each GHG a Global Warming Potential (GWP) has been calculated to reflect how long it remains in
the atmosphere.
• Gases with a higher GWP absorb more energy, than gases with a lower GWP, and thus contribute more
to warming the Earth.
• IPCC acknowledges that a new emission metric approaches (Global Warming Potential*) gives a better
account for the different physical behaviours of short lived gases such as methane.
• Expressing methane emissions that are in equilibrium as CO2 equivalent emissions overstates the effect
on temperature by a factor of 3-4 over a 20-year time period.
• “Multi-basket approaches” using different emission metric can be applied depending on policy objectives.
GHG Average lifetime GWP
Carbon dioxide 100 – 1,000 + 1
Methane 12 28–36
Nitrous oxide 120 265–298
Main Agricultural Emissions

8. Biogenic methane
• Emitted from biological processes e.g. livestock.
• Plants absorb carbon dioxide from the air, and
through the process of photosynthesis convert it
to glucose, and use this to make plant fibres and
other carbohydrates.
• Ruminants are then able to break down this fibre
in the rumen, emitting a portion as methane.
• After 10/12 years, the methane is converted to
carbon dioxide through hydroxyl oxidation.
• That carbon is the same carbon that was
removed by photosynthesis.
• It is therefore recycled carbon and there is no net
change in atmospheric CO2

9. Measuring Methane in Inventory
– GWP *
• If methane emissions stable then
GWP100 overstates heating effect by
3 to 4 times.
• A 3% reduction per decade in
methane would result in no further
warming.
• However a 1.5% annual increase
would result in a climate impact 40%
greater than GWP100

10. Calculation of emissions

11. Calculation of emissions
• EPA compiles National Inventories and Projections of Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas
• International: Reporting to EU and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• National: Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021; Carbon Budgets
• GHG inventory estimates are detailed and comprehensive
• Based on available activity data and national research
• Based on internationally agreed IPCC guidelines
• Emissions = Activity data * Emission Factor
• Methodologies (ongoing refinement & Industry engagement):
• Tier 1 (simplest): Largely using variables within IPCC guidelines
• Tier 2 (country specific parameters): Based on research. In agriculture this includes disaggregated livestock
population statistics, detailed characterisation of manure management, etc.
• Tier 3 (country specific methodologies): measurement based approaches, detailed modelling

12. Refinement of Inventory
– Need for updates and improvement as science and knowledge progresses
– Refinement is dependent on national research and national activity data Measurable;
Reportable; Verifiable
– Ongoing engagement with Teagasc, DAFM and other stakeholders
– There is a clear approach for data inclusion in the inventory - National reports e.g. through
survey findings, Peer reviewed scientific publications all must be representative of national
circumstances
– Stands up to scrutiny in both EU Effort Sharing Decision and UN review/audit

13. Irish Agri Emission Trend
Mt CO2eq Vs. 2018 (Base)
Fuel combustion 0.646 -4.1%
Urea application 0.102 +15%
Liming 0.597 +29.6%
Agricultural soils 5.031 -2.4%
Manure Management 2.707 -0.5%
Enteric Fermentation 14.013 +0.4%
Total 23.097 +0.2%
Note: Rounding may impact figures (Source: EPA, 2022)
Mt CO2eq
2018 levels 25% cut 2030 Target
23.053 5.763 17.290
2021:

14. Irish Agri Emission Profile
(Source: EPA, 2022)
Agriculture GHG emissions:
• CO2eq: c.37% of national total (EU Av. c.10%)
• Agricultural methane CH4 ~ 93.6% of national total
• Agricultural N20 ~ 93.6% of national total
70%
25%
6%
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous Oxide (NO2)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

15. National requirements & Next Steps
Tadhg Buckley
Director of Policy

16. Known Knowns
Target set: 25% cut in Agri
emissions by 2030 vs. 2018
levels
Known Unknowns
Unknown how we are going
to achieve it - no plan /
pathway in place
Unknown Knowns
What Government
supports will be made
available for farmers
Unknown Unknowns
Impact on farm & rural
economic sustainability
A National Approach to an International
Issue
2020 CO2 emissions:
• Globe: 35.962GT
• Ireland: 32.65Mt
Ireland accounts for 0.09% of
the world's carbon emissions
(Source: EU Joint Research Centre)

17. Governing / Accounting framework has
Agriculture on the back-foot from the start
Attribute emission to source of
production or point of consumption
Benefit of on-farm renewables to
Energy over Agriculture
Farmers need a pathway & series of
financial supports to make necessary
on-farm changes
GWP100
vs.
GWP*

18. Bringing Balance to the Debate….
Globally
Ireland
2021: 9% vs. peak (1989)
[1,000,967 vs. 1,101,036 (‘000 head)]
(Source: FAS / USDA)
2021: 4% vs. peak (1998)
[7,358.9 vs. 7,640 (‘000 head)]
(Source: CSO)

19. …With Strong and
Reasoned Argument

20. Climate Act Requirements
• The Act was enacted in July 2021 and legally binds Ireland to achieve net zero emissions
by 2050.
• Avoid the risk of substantial and unreasonable carbon leakage as a consequence of
measures introduced, whereby production is transferred due to cost of climate compliance
to a country with less restrictive policies with regard to greenhouse gas emissions.
• The special economic and social role of agriculture to be considered, particularly in
regard to the distinct characteristics of biogenic methane.
• Carbon removals (i.e. carbon sequestered) is considered as part of the carbon budgets.

21. • Climate Change Advisory Council prepare proposed carbon budgets.
Requirement for 3 budgets each 5 years in duration from 2021-2035
• The budgets will be for a period of 5 years. The first budget period commencing
1st January 2021 and ending 31st December 2025.
• The first 2 carbon budgets (period ending 31st December 2030) shall provide
for a reduction of 51% in total GHG emissions based on the GHG inventory
report year ending 2018.
Carbon Budgets

22. Sectoral Emissions Ceilings
• Additional 5.25Mt of reduction earmarked under “unallocated savings”. Will be allocated on a whole
of economy basis during second carbon budget. Savings from new technologies which are as yet
unidentified.
• LULUCF target has been deferred for 18 months to allow a land use analysis study to be completed.
Sector 2018 Emissions
(Mt CO2eq)
2030 Ceiling
(Mt CO2eq)
Final Reduction
Target
Electricity 10.5 3 75%
Transport 12 6 50%
Buildings 9 5 44%
Industry 7 4 35%
Agriculture 23 17.25 25%
LULUCF 4.8 TBC TBC

23. • LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) covers emissions and removals from
direct land use including commercial uses, land-use change and forestry.
• Currently, LULUCF is a net emitter under Irish inventory (emitting 7.76Mt CO2eq in 2021 per
EPA) as grassland and wetlands currently estimated to emit c. 9.5 Mt CO2eq/annum
• Mainly due to emissions from peat soil – based on Tier 1 emissions factor
• Forestry is currently a carbon sink of c. 2Mt but likely to decline significantly in coming
years due to lack of recent planting
• National Agricultural Soil Carbon Observatory now measuring soil carbon activity to establish
country-specific data on soil sequestration and emissions - 4-5 year timeline for verifiable data
• EU “Fit for 55 package” proposes to create a newly regulated land sector Agriculture,
Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) from 2030
LULUCF

24. Actions identified under Climate Action Plan
• Delivers c. 4Mt in reduction. Additional 1.75Mt required to meet 25%
• Other potential measures include:
– Increased feed additive usage
– Rebasing of methane emissions from bovines
– Slurry Additives
Action MtCO2eq
Improved nutrient management (reduced chemical N use, increased LESS,
increase protected urea)
↓ 1.5 – 2
Improved animal breeding (lower methane livestock) ↓ 0.3
Improved animal feeding (reduce crude protein, use feed additives) ↓ 0.7
Early finishing age of cattle (reduce ave. slaughter age 27 -24 months) ↓ 0.7
Increase organic farming (to 350,000 hectares) ↓ 0.3
Inject biomethane in national grid ↓ 0.1 – 0.2
TOTAL (Mt) 3.6 – 4.2
TOTAL (% Reduction) 16 – 18%

25. What does this mean for Farmers
Current Climate Action Plan:
• Reduction in levels of fertiliser use along with change in type of fertiliser
• Increased in use of LESS
• Likely to seek to ensure earlier age of slaughter trend continues
• Encourage uptake in organic farming
• Research focus on lower-methane livestock, feed additives etc
• Food Vision Groups give insight into likely direction of future measures
What will revised Climate Action Plan entail?
– Revised Plan needed that shows farmers pathway to 25% through voluntary measures
– Substantial funding package required in tandem to compensate farmers for required measures

26. Food Vision Groups
• The Minister has recently established a Food Vision Dairy Group and Food Vision Beef
& Sheep Group
• Their objective is to fulfil the Food Vision 2030 commitment to ‘produce a detailed plan
manage the sustainable environmental footprint of the Dairy and Beef sectors, including
minimising total emissions, while making a positive contribution to improved water
quality and biodiversity, in line with government policy
• The membership of the Group comprises representatives from the farm organisations,
Industry, all relevant state agencies, universities and key department officials.
• The Dairy group which commenced earlier has produced an interim report with 17
recommendations – Beef & Sheep group only commenced in June 2022

27. Food Vision Dairy Group
Recommendations
1. Consider Voluntary Reduction/Exit Scheme
– Voluntary scheme
– Agreement to detailed stakeholder engagement on design to avoid unforeseen
consequences
• Impact on land values/mobility
• Force Majuere
• Impact on family farm model
– On basis on above amendments IFA supported the recommendation for
further consideration of this scheme
– Recent working paper prepared for group placed estimated economic cost of
€4,300/dairy cow

28. Food Vision Dairy Group
Recommendations
2. Explore the potential of Cap and Trade methane-focused
emissions model
– IFA expressed deep reservations relating to this recommendation:
• Effectively a quota by another name
• Could have significant implications for other ruminant sectors
• Does not take account of carbon removals
– On basis of above IFA rejected this measure – only stakeholder
organisation to do so

29. Food Vision Dairy Group
Recommendations
4. Reduce chemical N use in the dairy sector by 30% by 2030, with a reduction
of 22%-25% in the short term (2025)
– Recommendation was reduced from initial proposal of 35% by 2025
– IFA outlined huge concerns on this proposal:
• Outlined that we were supportive on initiatives to reduce use of inorganic nitrogen by sector
• However, IFA outlined that there was no research completed that outlined this reduction in N levels
is achievable without causing massive harm to profitability and productivity of dairy farms
• Referenced Teagasc research on impact of reduction in N levels (10% reduction in N reduces
incomes by 5% if not replaced with clover)
• Made counter-proposal of a 20% reduction in N by 2030. Completed analysis which showed that
this would achieve 90% of the mitigation in emissions compared with a 30% reduction
• This was not accepted by Group – accordingly IFA rejected this proposal. Macra and ICMSA also
rejected it, was accepted by all other stakeholders

30. Next Steps/
Upcoming Policy Challenges
• Government’s Updated Climate Action Plan
– Roadmap to 25% and associated funding requirements
• Recommendations from Food Vision groups
• Nitrates Action Plan
– An Taisce legal challenge
– Increasing focus on derogation and associated regulations
• Biodiversity citizens assembly
• Industrial Emissions Directive
• EU Carbon Farming Initiative
• National Land Use Strategy

31. Questions