Liam Woulfe, CEO, Grassland Agro on the Review & Outlook on Fertiliser Market

1. 20th January 2022
IFA Webinar
Fertilizer Supply and Price
Outlook Spring 2022
Liam Woulfe

2. Fertilizer Supply Dynamics for Early 2022
1. Gas Price - Availability
- Volatility
2. Logistics
3. Nutrient price Trends
- Ammonia
- Urea
- Sulphate of Ammonia
- Phosphate (DAP)
- Potash (MOP)
4. Currency Trend
5. European Fertilizer Inventories
6. Supply Limitation from key Countries
7. Working Capital Challenge
8. Possible Consequences
9. Macro Considerations

3. Natural Gas vs Petroleum – 2008 –
2022

4. Logistical challenges also to contend with

5. • Ammonia
• Urea
• Sulphate of Ammonia
• DAP – Phosphate
• MOP – Potash
Nutrient Price Trends

6. Ammonia FOB Prices – 2008 - 2022

7. Urea FOB Prices – 2008 - 2022

8. Sulphate Ammonia FOB Prices –
2008 - 2022

9. DAP MAP FOB Prices – 2008 - 2022

10. KCL CFR FCA CIF Prices – 2008 - 2022

11. Currency
US $1.58 to Euro
$800 @ US $1.58 to € = €506
US $1.13 to Euro
$800 @ US $1.14 to € = €708
2008 2022

12. Exchange Rate Euro € / US Dollar $ –
2007 - 2022

13. • 30% Lower Autumn 2021 vs Autumn 2020
and Autumn 2019
European Nitrogen Inventories

14. Russia – especially N.
China – N., P. & K.
Turkey – N. + DAP.
Sanctions on Belarus – Potash
+ Geographical disruptions
Critical Supply Limitations

15. Producer
*Imagine the risk at prices that are 250 – 350% of 2020 / 2021 prices
* All levels in the supply chain will have to pay their supplier up front as credit limits are not
going to increase to levels required.
Working Capital Challenges
Credit Limits
Trader Importer Co-op / Merchant Farmer

16. Grain Price (Wheat) 2008 - 2022
€ / tonne

17. Grain Price (Wheat) Chicago 2008 - 2022
US cents / Bushel

18. • Farm profitability takes a big hit
• Inability of the supply chain to get product
• Inability of any link in the chain to pay in line with the new price / credit limits
• Risk factors for each link in the chain if price falls as they hold stock
• Further COVID-19 type business interruptions
• Possible fertilizer supply interruptions or shortages in March – April
• Increased focus on climate change initiatives at each level must not be sacrificed
Possible Consequences for 2022

19. • Profitability of each level in the chain
• Cash-flow
• E.U Energy and E.U Food Security short to medium term
• Climate change initiatives maybe somewhat frustrated due to economics
Finally, what can we do better…..Focus on Sustainability
Macro Considerations