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© 2017 Ipsos 1
Core Political Data
08.09.2017
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
© 2017 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be
disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
© 2017 Ipsos 2
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
for date
August 4 – August 8, 2017
For the survey,
a sample of
1,671
Americans
including
773
Democrats
568
Republicans
191
Independents
18+
ages
w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e
Core Political Data
IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
© 2017 Ipsos 3
The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.
In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
2.7
for all adults
4.0
Democrats
4.7
Republicans
8.1
Independents
Core Political Data
IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
© 2017 Ipsos 4
• The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
– Gender
– Age
– Education
– Ethnicity
– Region
• Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
• All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to
coverage error and measurement error.
• Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than
one half of one per cent.
• Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
• To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit:
http://polling.reuters.com/
Core Political Data
IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
© 2017 Ipsos 5
Right Direction/Wrong Track
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
27%
59%
13%
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t Know
All Adults
12%
81%
7%
56%31%
13%
28%
54%
18%
Democrats Republicans Independents
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the
right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
© 2017 Ipsos 6
Main Problem Facing America
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Total Democrat Republican Independent
Economy generally 10% 8% 14% 15%
Unemployment / lack of jobs 5% 6% 4% 4%
War / foreign conflicts 5% 6% 4% 6%
Immigration 9% 6% 16% 5%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks 12% 10% 14% 17%
Healthcare 22% 28% 19% 17%
Energy issues 1% 1% 0% 1%
Morality 8% 5% 13% 5%
Education 5% 5% 3% 5%
Crime 7% 7% 5% 6%
Environment 5% 8% 1% 4%
Don’t know 3% 2% 1% 4%
Other 9% 9% 6% 10%
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
© 2017 Ipsos 7
Main Problem Facing America
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Economy Generally
Unemployment / jobs
Healthcare
Terrorism
Immigration
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
© 2017 Ipsos 8
Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump
is handling his job as President?
Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”)
Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
Total Democrat Republican Independent
Strongly approve 20% 5% 43% 21%
Somewhat approve 13% 4% 28% 15%
Lean towards approve 4% 2% 5% 8%
Lean towards disapprove 3% 3% 2% 4%
Somewhat disapprove 13% 14% 11% 14%
Strongly disapprove 42% 70% 10% 32%
Not sure 4% 2% 1% 5%
TOTAL APPROVE 37% 11% 76% 44%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 59% 87% 23% 50%
DONALD TRUMP
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
© 2017 Ipsos 9
Weekly Approval
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
37%
59%
© 2017 Ipsos 10
Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted 1/20/2017 – 7/25/2017 among 68,393 US adults
Color scale represents degree of Trump approval, with each color corresponding to varying degrees of job approval from over 55% approval to under 35% approval
Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
Approval by State (Jan-July 2017)
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Over 55% 50-54% 45-49% 40-44% 35-39% Under 35%
© 2017 Ipsos 11
Do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling the following
issues?
Strongly
approve
Somewhat
approve
Lean
towards
approve
Lean
towards
disapprove
Somewhat
disapprove
Strongly
disapprove
Don’t
know
TOTAL
APPROVE
TOTAL
DISAPPROVE
The US economy 20% 12% 14% 11% 7% 30% 6% 46% 47%
US foreign policy 16% 12% 11% 10% 9% 36% 6% 39% 55%
Healthcare reform 14% 11% 10% 11% 7% 42% 5% 35% 60%
Employment and
jobs
20% 13% 15% 10% 8% 26% 8% 48% 44%
Dealing with
Congress
13% 12% 12% 11% 10% 35% 7% 36% 57%
Dealing with ISIS /
ISIL
20% 14% 12% 8% 9% 28% 9% 46% 45%
International trade 16% 12% 13% 10% 9% 32% 9% 41% 50%
Taxation 14% 11% 15% 10% 9% 32% 9% 39% 51%
Corruption 14% 10% 14% 9% 8% 36% 9% 37% 54%
The environment 13% 12% 11% 9% 7% 39% 9% 36% 56%
Immigration 22% 11% 9% 8% 8% 37% 4% 42% 54%
The way he treats
people like me
15% 11% 10% 10% 7% 42% 6% 36% 58%
The effort he is
making to unify the
country
18% 12% 10% 9% 6% 40% 5% 40% 55%
Approval Attributes
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
© 2017 Ipsos 12
Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way your Congressperson is handling their job as
Representative?
Congressional Approval
Split Sampled
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Total Democrat Republican Independent
Strongly approve 8% 9% 11% 4%
Somewhat approve 36% 36% 46% 25%
Somewhat disapprove 19% 19% 17% 26%
Strongly disapprove 15% 17% 11% 14%
Don’t know 22% 19% 14% 31%
TOTAL APPROVE 44% 45% 58% 29%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 34% 37% 28% 40%
Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Congress as a whole is handling its job?
Total Democrat Republican Independent
Strongly approve 3% 4% 2% 0%
Somewhat approve 18% 17% 21% 17%
Somewhat disapprove 33% 35% 33% 27%
Strongly disapprove 38% 38% 39% 52%
Don’t know 8% 6% 5% 4%
TOTAL APPROVE 21% 20% 23% 17%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 71% 73% 72% 79%
© 2017 Ipsos 13
All Adults: n= 1,671
Political Identity
16%
22%
7%
6%
16%
11%
12%
6%
4%
38%
27%
45%
33%
12%
10%
Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
Moderate Republican
Strong Republican
Independent
None of these
DK
Democrat
Republican
Democrat
Republican
Independent
None/DK
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Party ID
Party ID w/ Lean
© 2017 Ipsos 14
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
APPENDIX
The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the
parameter θ, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number
of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true
population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept
in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior
distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.
The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted
after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated
using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior
distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals
represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base.
There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure
of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we
will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs
when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the
normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
© 2017 Ipsos 15
FOR THIS POLL
The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to
account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
APPENDIX
SAMPLE SIZE
CREDIBILITY
INTERVALS
2,000 2.5
1,500 2.9
1,000 3.5
750 4.1
500 5.0
350 6.0
200 7.9
100 11.2
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003
2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
Ipsos does not publish data
for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.
© 2017 Ipsos 16
ABOUT IPSOS
Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.
With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos
employs more than 16,000 people and has the
ability to conduct research programs in more
than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975,
Ipsos is controlled and managed by research
professionals. They have built a solid Group
around a multi-specialist positioning – Media
and advertising research; Marketing research;
Client and employee relationship management;
Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online,
Offline data collection and delivery.
Ipsos is listed on Eurolist – NYSE – Euronext.
The company is part of the SBF 120 and the
Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred
Settlement Service (SRD).
ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA,
Bloomberg IPS:FP
www.ipsos.com
GAME CHANGERS
At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets,
brands and society. We deliver information and analysis
that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate
and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions.
We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity,
speed and substance applies to everything we do.
Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth
of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different
experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly
call things into question, to be creative.
By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we
attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability
and desire to influence and shape the future.
“GAME CHANGERS” – our tagline – summarises our ambition.

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Reuters/Ipsos Data: Core Political (08/09/2017)

  • 1. © 2017 Ipsos 1 Core Political Data 08.09.2017 Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters © 2017 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
  • 2. © 2017 Ipsos 2 These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for date August 4 – August 8, 2017 For the survey, a sample of 1,671 Americans including 773 Democrats 568 Republicans 191 Independents 18+ ages w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
  • 3. © 2017 Ipsos 3 The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix. 2.7 for all adults 4.0 Democrats 4.7 Republicans 8.1 Independents Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
  • 4. © 2017 Ipsos 4 • The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by: – Gender – Age – Education – Ethnicity – Region • Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. • All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. • Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. • Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. • To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit: http://polling.reuters.com/ Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
  • 5. © 2017 Ipsos 5 Right Direction/Wrong Track ALL ADULT AMERICANS 27% 59% 13% Right Direction Wrong Track Don’t Know All Adults 12% 81% 7% 56%31% 13% 28% 54% 18% Democrats Republicans Independents Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
  • 6. © 2017 Ipsos 6 Main Problem Facing America ALL ADULT AMERICANS Total Democrat Republican Independent Economy generally 10% 8% 14% 15% Unemployment / lack of jobs 5% 6% 4% 4% War / foreign conflicts 5% 6% 4% 6% Immigration 9% 6% 16% 5% Terrorism / terrorist attacks 12% 10% 14% 17% Healthcare 22% 28% 19% 17% Energy issues 1% 1% 0% 1% Morality 8% 5% 13% 5% Education 5% 5% 3% 5% Crime 7% 7% 5% 6% Environment 5% 8% 1% 4% Don’t know 3% 2% 1% 4% Other 9% 9% 6% 10% In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
  • 7. © 2017 Ipsos 7 Main Problem Facing America ALL ADULT AMERICANS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Economy Generally Unemployment / jobs Healthcare Terrorism Immigration 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  • 8. © 2017 Ipsos 8 Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”) Total Democrat Republican Independent Strongly approve 20% 5% 43% 21% Somewhat approve 13% 4% 28% 15% Lean towards approve 4% 2% 5% 8% Lean towards disapprove 3% 3% 2% 4% Somewhat disapprove 13% 14% 11% 14% Strongly disapprove 42% 70% 10% 32% Not sure 4% 2% 1% 5% TOTAL APPROVE 37% 11% 76% 44% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 59% 87% 23% 50% DONALD TRUMP ALL ADULT AMERICANS
  • 9. © 2017 Ipsos 9 Weekly Approval ALL ADULT AMERICANS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 37% 59%
  • 10. © 2017 Ipsos 10 Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted 1/20/2017 – 7/25/2017 among 68,393 US adults Color scale represents degree of Trump approval, with each color corresponding to varying degrees of job approval from over 55% approval to under 35% approval Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Approval by State (Jan-July 2017) ALL ADULT AMERICANS Over 55% 50-54% 45-49% 40-44% 35-39% Under 35%
  • 11. © 2017 Ipsos 11 Do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE The US economy 20% 12% 14% 11% 7% 30% 6% 46% 47% US foreign policy 16% 12% 11% 10% 9% 36% 6% 39% 55% Healthcare reform 14% 11% 10% 11% 7% 42% 5% 35% 60% Employment and jobs 20% 13% 15% 10% 8% 26% 8% 48% 44% Dealing with Congress 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% 35% 7% 36% 57% Dealing with ISIS / ISIL 20% 14% 12% 8% 9% 28% 9% 46% 45% International trade 16% 12% 13% 10% 9% 32% 9% 41% 50% Taxation 14% 11% 15% 10% 9% 32% 9% 39% 51% Corruption 14% 10% 14% 9% 8% 36% 9% 37% 54% The environment 13% 12% 11% 9% 7% 39% 9% 36% 56% Immigration 22% 11% 9% 8% 8% 37% 4% 42% 54% The way he treats people like me 15% 11% 10% 10% 7% 42% 6% 36% 58% The effort he is making to unify the country 18% 12% 10% 9% 6% 40% 5% 40% 55% Approval Attributes ALL ADULT AMERICANS
  • 12. © 2017 Ipsos 12 Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way your Congressperson is handling their job as Representative? Congressional Approval Split Sampled ALL ADULT AMERICANS Total Democrat Republican Independent Strongly approve 8% 9% 11% 4% Somewhat approve 36% 36% 46% 25% Somewhat disapprove 19% 19% 17% 26% Strongly disapprove 15% 17% 11% 14% Don’t know 22% 19% 14% 31% TOTAL APPROVE 44% 45% 58% 29% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 34% 37% 28% 40% Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Congress as a whole is handling its job? Total Democrat Republican Independent Strongly approve 3% 4% 2% 0% Somewhat approve 18% 17% 21% 17% Somewhat disapprove 33% 35% 33% 27% Strongly disapprove 38% 38% 39% 52% Don’t know 8% 6% 5% 4% TOTAL APPROVE 21% 20% 23% 17% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 71% 73% 72% 79%
  • 13. © 2017 Ipsos 13 All Adults: n= 1,671 Political Identity 16% 22% 7% 6% 16% 11% 12% 6% 4% 38% 27% 45% 33% 12% 10% Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Independent None/DK ALL ADULT AMERICANS Party ID Party ID w/ Lean
  • 14. © 2017 Ipsos 14 How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals APPENDIX The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
  • 15. © 2017 Ipsos 15 FOR THIS POLL The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below: How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals APPENDIX SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS 2,000 2.5 1,500 2.9 1,000 3.5 750 4.1 500 5.0 350 6.0 200 7.9 100 11.2 1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100.
  • 16. © 2017 Ipsos 16 ABOUT IPSOS Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning – Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery. Ipsos is listed on Eurolist – NYSE – Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com GAME CHANGERS At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets, brands and society. We deliver information and analysis that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions. We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and substance applies to everything we do. Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly call things into question, to be creative. By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability and desire to influence and shape the future. “GAME CHANGERS” – our tagline – summarises our ambition.