SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 50
Baixar para ler offline
Perceptions, reality and devolution
Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
ben.page@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000
Labour need a 9.6% swing in England in 2020 to win
ELECTORAL ARITHMETIC IN 2020
House of Commons 2015
2.8
1.1
1.7
1.2
4.8
5.4
4.0
1.8
3.2
5.1
11.3
3.0
2.7
0.9
2.1
1.8
2.0
10.2
0.3
1945
1951
1959
1966
1974 (Feb)
1979
1987
1997
2005
2015
Swing to Con
Swing to Lab
33
Most predictions are wrong
44
The election, the polls, and aftermath
Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
Ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori
Taking a hammering…
Exit poll - 316
Result - 331
Exit poll - 239
Result - 232
Exit poll - 10
Result - 8
Exit poll - 58
Result - 21
Exit poll - 2
Result - 1
Exit poll - 2
Result - 1
Result - 56
Exit poll - 23
Source: Ipsos MORI/GfK NOP for BBC/ITV News/Sky News
Asking what did do,
rather than what
will…
We got highest
Conservative
share and
lowest error on
this key
calculation of
who would be
largest party…
Average percentage point error on
Conservative/Labour vote share
Lots of social media activity by the young, fewer votes
So what’s worrying voters and residents?
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
May
2014
May
2015
NHS UNEMPLOYMENT
CRIME/LAW &
ORDER ECONOMY IMMIGRATION*
*Up until September 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants
Cameron becomes PM
Education / Schools not a problem
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
May
2014
May
2015
Introduction of means-tested tuition
fees. Education most important issue.
First City Academies
introduced
Lowest score since
Dec 1985 (9%)
Labour’s second term - pledge to
improve failing secondary schools
April 2011 – Pupil
Premium introduced
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Cameron becomes PM
Issues Facing Britain:
Defence / Foreign Affairs / International terrorism
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
May
2014
May
2015
9/11 London
Bombs
Invasion of Iraq –
protests across Europe
Failed terror
attacks in London
and Glasgow
UK withdraws
from Iraq
War in
Kosovo
Parliamentary vote
against action in Syria
NATO bombing
in Libya
Rise of
ISIS
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Cameron becomes PM
Poverty/inequality?
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
5
10
15
20
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
May
2014
May
2015
Sept 1999:
Alastair Darling – “one child in
three” living in poverty
July 2014:
highest score
recorded (18%)
January 2005:
Make Poverty History campaign
launched on New Year’s Day
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Cameron becomes PM
Record concern about housing
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
May
2014
May
2015
A8 Countries
join the EU
House prices
rising at fastest
rate in 10 years
Highest score since
October 1974 (20%)
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
People do not think they are being affected by cuts
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED A NUMBER OF SPENDING CUTS
TO HELP REDUCE THE NATIONAL DEBT TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, HAVE YOU AND YOUR
FAMILY BEEN AFFECTED BY THE CUTS SO FAR?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI
8%
8%
25%
15%
49%
39%
10%
37%
8%
2%
November 2012
August 2015
A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know
76%23%
59%33%
And concern about future effects of cuts decreased significantly…
AND HOW CONCERNED, IF AT ALL, ARE YOU ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE CUTS
ON YOU AND YOUR FAMILY IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI
19%
19%
42%
27%
28%
30%
5%
22%
6%
1%
November 2012
August 2015
A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know
52%46%
33%61%
This is despite people being more likely to think services have got worse than better
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015
THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC SERVICES OVERALL, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OF PUBLIC
SERVICES HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS OR HAS IT STAYED THE
SAME?
Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll
3%
4%
12%
12%
42%
39%
20%
23%
20%
20%
3%
3%
September 2013
September 2015
Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know
16%
40%15%
43%
And most still disagree the government has the right policies for public services
On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain's
public services.
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ every month Source: Ipsos MORI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 Jun-01
Nov-01
Apr-02
Sep-02
Feb-03
Jul-03
Dec-03
May-04
Oct-04
Mar-05
Aug-05
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
56
37Agree
Disagree
Public is seeing more decline in quality of health and social care than
they were two years ago
19
4%
2%
11%
7%
11%
10%
7%
11%
16%
17%
18%
17%
22%
27%
36%
34%
41%
33%
10%
16%
14%
19%
14%
19%
12%
20%
16%
16%
14%
19%
44%
24%
7%
7%
2%
3%
2013
2015
2013
2015
2013
2015
Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know
GP
surgeries
Hospitals
Care for the
elderly
Base: 1,006 British adults 18 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll
DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH
OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?
27% 38%
29% 28%
24% 35%
27% 30%
13% 36%
11% 22%
Users also on balance negative – more so in the case of care for the
elderly
9%
5%
11%
7%
10%
10%
13%
17%
16%
19%
19%
17%
27%
30%
36%
33%
42%
32%
13%
15%
15%
19%
14%
20%
19%
26%
17%
17%
14%
19%
12%
7%
5%
5%
1%
2%
2013 (210)
2015 (172)
2013 (888)
2015 (807)
2013 (938)
2015 (904)
Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know
Users of
GP
surgeries
Users of
hospitals
Users of
care for the
elderly
Base: All whose household benefits from named service 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll
DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED
THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM
SERVICE)
27% 39%
29% 28%
26% 36%
27% 32%
22% 41%
22% 32%
Anxiety about the NHS takes off…..
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
21THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?
Source: Ipsos MORI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 Mar-02
Oct-02
May-03
Dec-03
Jul-04
Feb-05
Sep-05
Apr-06
Nov-06
Jun-07
Jan-08
Aug-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
May-10
Dec-10
Jul-11
Feb-12
Sep-12
Apr-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
Jan-15
Aug-15
55
19
Better
Worse
We’re evenly split of whether education will to get better, worse
or stay the same
THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT
IT TO…?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI
5%
26%
32%
23%
9%
5%
Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know
31%
32%
LOCAL SERVICES AND
INFRASTRUCTURE?
13%
10%
27%
26%
7%
6%
8%
8%
16%
12%
21%
22%
12%
16%
12%
11%
45%
51%
37%
34%
54%
47%
58%
57%
11%
13%
6%
8%
10%
12%
9%
10%
12%
12%
6%
7%
11%
14%
8%
10%
3%
2%
3%
3%
5%
5%
4%
5%
2013
Aug-15
2013
Sep-15
2013
Aug-15
2013
Aug-15
Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know
Street
lighting
Refuse
collection
Street
cleaning
Recycling
collection
No big shifts in views of local street scene services – just slight increases
in people saying they’ve got worse
24
Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015
Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout
Anniversary poll
DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH
OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?
19% 20%
20% 17%
19%
26%
22%
15%
22%
21%
48%
25%
48% 12%
29% 23%
15%
12%
9%
7%
14%
10%
18%
20%
11%
12%
11%
14%
44%
46%
35%
35%
38%
33%
9%
10%
9%
14%
4%
9%
6%
6%
7%
9%
3%
6%
8%
6%
29%
23%
30%
29%
2013
Aug-15
2013
Sep-15
2013
Aug-15
Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know
Leisure
centres
Parks and open
spaces
Libraries
Slightly greater shifts towards thinking leisure centres and libraries
have got worse – but relatively few noticing changes
25
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015
Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll
DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH
OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?
24% 15%
25% 7%
20%
23%
33%
16%
19%
16%
32%
15%
4%
4%
8%
8%
7%
10%
13%
11%
20%
28%
39%
37%
18%
18%
11%
14%
49%
39%
8%
11%
2%
2%
20%
20%
2013
Aug-15
2013
Aug-15
Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know
Bus services
Road
maintenance
Concern about road maintenance still very high
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll
DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH
OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?
19% 25%
21% 19%
11%
57%14%
67%
Expectations split on future of public transport
THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI
5%
21%
36%
24%
8%
6%
Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know
26%
32%
LOCAL POLICING
UNDER PRESSURE
5%
3%
10%
9%
43%
39%
15%
21%
13%
18%
13%
10%
2013
Sep-15
Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know
The police
More worried about policing
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll
DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH
OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?
12% 39%
28%15%
A third also expect local policing to get worse in the next few years
THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU
EXPECT IT TO…?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI
3%
12%
46%
26%
9%
4%
Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know
15%
35%
31%
27%
16%
21%
12%
18%
16%
15%
21%
16%
4%
3%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree
Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
2015
2013
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015,
Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout
Anniversary poll
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?
People more likely to agree than disagree that cuts to welfare
gone too far…
I THINK CUTS TO WELFARE AND BENEFITS HAVE GONE TOO FAR
48% 31%
37%47%
29%
22%
30%
25%
11%
16%
9%
17%
16%
17%
6%
3%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree
Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
2015
2013
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?
…although they also think the cuts have been necessary – but less so
than in 2013
I THINK REDUCTIONS IN SOCIAL WELFARE BENEFITS HAVE BEEN NECESSARY
But people are not
always consistent:
eg 37% of those
who think welfare
cuts have gone too
far also think that
the reductions in
benefits have been
necessary
47% 34%
25%59%
CUTS AND MISPERCEPTIONS
AND WHAT PROPORTION OF THE GOVERNMENT’S PLANNED CUTS TO PUBLIC SPENDING DO YOU
THINK HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT SO FAR?
40%
28%
November 2012
August 2015
People think only 28% of planned cuts have been
made – less than they thought in 2012
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI
I WOULD NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT PUBLIC SPENDING ON DIFFERENT SERVICES OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS.
FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME BY WHAT PERCENT YOU THINK SPENDING HAS INCREASED OR
DECREASED IN REAL TERMS OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS? PLEASE GIVE YOUR BEST ESTIMATE IF YOU ARE NOT SURE.
-20%
-9%
-12%
-6%
4%
-3%
-1%
-5%
-19%
0%
13%
-2%
-13%
1%
-49%
-5%
65%
11%
-54%
+44%
+14%
-15%
+19%
-4%
-7%
+6%
+11%
Source: Ipsos MORI
Foreign aid [Foreign economic aid]
Housing [housing development: local authority
and other social housing]
Education [all education services from pre-primary to
tertiary and others*]
Pensions and old age benefits [pensions and old
age personal social services]
Transport [national and local roads, local public transport, railway and
other transport]
Other benefits [all social protection not including old age benefits and
pensions]
Health services / NHS [includes medical services and
research and central and other health services]
Defence [includes military, civil, R&D and
other defence and foreign military aid]
Policing [includes immigration and
citizenship and other police services]
Perceived
Actual
Perceived
Actual
Perceived
Actual
Perceived
Actual
Perceived
Actual
Perceived
Actual
Perceived
Actual
Perceived
Actual
Perceived
Actual
But public is wrong about lots of things….
Gap
DEVOLUTION
Source: Ipsos MORIFieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
As long as services are delivered well, most do not care who makes the decisions,
14%
7%
38%
29%
22%
36%
15%
14%
6%
8%
5%
6%
I don’t care who is
responsible for making
decisions about services in
my local area so long as
they are delivered well
I trust local
politicians/councillors more
than national
politicians/MPs and
ministers to make decisions
about services in my local
area
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements…?
Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
52%
36%
Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
You what? Devolution less exciting to them than you
Q. Before today, how much, if anything, would you say you knew about the proposals for devolving more power to local councils, or groups of
councils, within England?
Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
23%
25%
27%
22%
19%
21%
20%
17%
3%
17%
34%
25%
17%
3%
A great deal
A fair amount
Just a little
Heard of, but know
nothing about
Never heard of
Don't know
16%
% knowing ‘a great deal’ or a ‘fair
amount’ about devolution
76%
Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
All regions support more devolution
Q. Thinking overall, to what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving more decision-making powers (on issues
such as economic development, transport, housing, planning and policing) to local areas?
Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
14
16
19
14
15
18
17
20
18
17
57
54
53
48
46
46
46
44
42
49
Yorkshire and The Humber
North West
South West
East Midlands
West Midlands
South East
Greater London
North East
East of England
Overall
% Oppose % Support
Net +%
+42
+38
+33
+34
+31
+29
+28
+24
+24
+32
Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
Support for increased accountability and flexibility to respond to local area
needs…however, only a third expect standards of public service to improve
59%
59%
56%
42%
33%
22%
3%
1%
1%
It will allow local councils and other local agencies like the
police to be more flexible in responding to changing local…
Local politicians know better than national politicians what is
best for the local area
Decisions affecting me should be made by local politicians
who are more accountable to local people
It will lead to better joining up and co-ordination between
public services in the local area
Standards of public services will improve in the local area
It will save money when delivering services
Something else
No reason
Don’t know
Q. Why do you say you support devolving more powers to local areas?
Base: All adults stating they support devolution (1862)
Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
Concerns that devolution will result in a ‘postcode lottery’ when it
comes to service delivery – plus distrust in politicians
58%
58%
44%
43%
41%
41%
39%
36%
27%
11%
*%
1%
Standards of services risk being different depending on where
you live – a ‘postcode lottery’
I don’t trust local politicians to make the right decisions for the
local area
It will lead to services being less joined up
It will do nothing to improve local services
It won’t lead to savings
Local politicians do not always know what is best for the local
area
It will cost money to implement
Standards of service will decline in the local area
I think taxes will increase
Something else
No reason
Don’t know
Q. Why do you say you oppose devolving more powers to local areas?
Base: All stating they don’t support devolution (656)
Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
On many issues say do want local control….
17%
25%
35%
36%
44%
56%
64%
65%
57%
47%
47%
38%
26%
18%
New housing developments
Transport, such as buses/cycle
network & trains
Schools and further education
colleges
Crime and policing services
Health and social care services
New infrastructure projects
related to air/rail/road networks
Welfare benefit payments, such
as HB and CTC
Nationally Locally
Q. For each of the following services, do you think decisions should be taken nationally for England as a whole or
locally by local bodies such as councils or other local service providers?
Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
But also want SAME STANDARDS everywhere….
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement…?
Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
36%
35%
16%
6%
1%5%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
“Standards of public
services should be
the same
everywhere in
England”
Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
Need to elect a mayor is more likely than not to make public support
devolution, although over a quarter are undecided
17%
19%
15%
13%
9%
27%
I support more devolution
regardless of the need to elect a…
I am more likely to support
devolution if I have to elect a…
I am less likely to support devolution
if I have to elect a mayor
I do not support devolution anyway
regardless of whether it might…
None of the above
Don’t know
Q. Which of these statements comes closest to your views about devolution and the need for a mayor?
Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
Most people think the London mayor has had a positive impact
Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
9%
37%
31%
6%
3%
15%
Very positive Fairly positive No impact
Fairly negative Very negative Don't know
Q. As you may know London has an independent elected mayor, currently Boris Johnson. Do you think that
having an independently elected mayor has had a positive or negative impact on London?
10%
9%
9%
9%
8%
8%
8%
8%
6%
9%
40%
42%
36%
30%
37%
37%
36%
26%
36%
37%
South East
Greater London
South West
West Midlands
Yorkshire and The…
East of England
East Midlands
North East
North West
Overall
Very positive impact Fairly positive impact
45%
Source: Ipsos MORIFieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015
7%
25%
30%
15%
10%
14%
Consistently find mixed views of giving tax/spend powers to you
Q. To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving similar powers around tax and spending for…
Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
7%
26%
30%
14%
10%
13%
STRONGLY SUPPORT
TEND TO SUPPORT
NEITHER SUPPORT NOR
OPPOSE
TEND TO OPPOSE
STRONGLY OPPOSE
DON’T KNOW
Support 33%
Oppose 24%
Support 31%
Oppose 25%
Major cities
English counties
+9 +6
Some evidence we are actually getting happier
Fairly or very satisfied with life overall
1975 2014
94%
86%
In conclusion - change is coming (as always)
Technology changes fast
Values change relatively slowly
Transparency and lack of trust…
Greatest human needs unchanged
Things aren’t so bad
Good luck!
ben.page@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000
Thank you

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Mais procurados (20)

Ipsos MORI April 2015 polling on issues to voting and ideal voting system
Ipsos MORI April 2015 polling on issues to voting and ideal voting systemIpsos MORI April 2015 polling on issues to voting and ideal voting system
Ipsos MORI April 2015 polling on issues to voting and ideal voting system
 
Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing
Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 BriefingIpsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing
Ipsos MORI General Election 2015 Briefing
 
"Beyond the Bubble" - Conservative Party Conference 2015
"Beyond the Bubble" - Conservative Party Conference 2015"Beyond the Bubble" - Conservative Party Conference 2015
"Beyond the Bubble" - Conservative Party Conference 2015
 
General Election: One Year Out
General Election: One Year OutGeneral Election: One Year Out
General Election: One Year Out
 
Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go
Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to goScottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go
Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go
 
Public Services and Austerity
Public Services and AusterityPublic Services and Austerity
Public Services and Austerity
 
Ipsos MORI End of Year Review of 2015
Ipsos MORI End of Year Review of 2015Ipsos MORI End of Year Review of 2015
Ipsos MORI End of Year Review of 2015
 
Ipsos MORI's Prediction Poll 2015
Ipsos MORI's Prediction Poll 2015Ipsos MORI's Prediction Poll 2015
Ipsos MORI's Prediction Poll 2015
 
Governing our great cities
Governing our great citiesGoverning our great cities
Governing our great cities
 
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - July 2015
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - July 2015Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - July 2015
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - July 2015
 
Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view
Ed Miliband: A 360 degree viewEd Miliband: A 360 degree view
Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view
 
Ipsos MORI Issues Index - March 2014
Ipsos MORI Issues Index - March 2014Ipsos MORI Issues Index - March 2014
Ipsos MORI Issues Index - March 2014
 
Youth Social Action in the UK - 2014
Youth Social Action in the UK - 2014Youth Social Action in the UK - 2014
Youth Social Action in the UK - 2014
 
Devolution Express
Devolution ExpressDevolution Express
Devolution Express
 
Shifting ground: Changing attitudes to immigration
Shifting ground: Changing attitudes to immigrationShifting ground: Changing attitudes to immigration
Shifting ground: Changing attitudes to immigration
 
Ipsos MORI: NHS at 65
Ipsos MORI: NHS at 65Ipsos MORI: NHS at 65
Ipsos MORI: NHS at 65
 
General Election 2015: Will the next generation have a better future?
General Election 2015: Will the next generation have a better future?General Election 2015: Will the next generation have a better future?
General Election 2015: Will the next generation have a better future?
 
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 electionIpsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election
 
Devolution - A Public Perspective
Devolution - A Public PerspectiveDevolution - A Public Perspective
Devolution - A Public Perspective
 
Britain after the referendum: What next
Britain after the referendum: What nextBritain after the referendum: What next
Britain after the referendum: What next
 

Semelhante a Perceptions, Reality and Devolution

Dear Westminster: We need to talk
Dear Westminster: We need to talkDear Westminster: We need to talk
Dear Westminster: We need to talk
Ipsos UK
 

Semelhante a Perceptions, Reality and Devolution (20)

Ipsos MORI Issues Index September 2019
Ipsos MORI Issues Index September 2019Ipsos MORI Issues Index September 2019
Ipsos MORI Issues Index September 2019
 
Issues Index July 2019
Issues Index July 2019Issues Index July 2019
Issues Index July 2019
 
Political Monitor September 2015
Political Monitor September 2015Political Monitor September 2015
Political Monitor September 2015
 
Ipsos MORI Issues Index - April 2019
Ipsos MORI Issues Index - April 2019Ipsos MORI Issues Index - April 2019
Ipsos MORI Issues Index - April 2019
 
Ipsos MORI Issues Index October 2019
Ipsos MORI Issues Index October 2019Ipsos MORI Issues Index October 2019
Ipsos MORI Issues Index October 2019
 
Well-being of Wales, 2018
Well-being of Wales, 2018Well-being of Wales, 2018
Well-being of Wales, 2018
 
Ben Page Resolution Foundation slides
Ben Page Resolution Foundation slidesBen Page Resolution Foundation slides
Ben Page Resolution Foundation slides
 
Issues Index march 2019
Issues Index march 2019Issues Index march 2019
Issues Index march 2019
 
Ipsos MORI June 2015 Political Monitor: EU, Leader and government satisfactio...
Ipsos MORI June 2015 Political Monitor: EU, Leader and government satisfactio...Ipsos MORI June 2015 Political Monitor: EU, Leader and government satisfactio...
Ipsos MORI June 2015 Political Monitor: EU, Leader and government satisfactio...
 
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2015 - NHS
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2015 - NHSIpsos MORI Political Monitor January 2015 - NHS
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2015 - NHS
 
Climate change and the weather
Climate change and the weatherClimate change and the weather
Climate change and the weather
 
The State of Britain and Brexit
The State of Britain and BrexitThe State of Britain and Brexit
The State of Britain and Brexit
 
Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014
Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014
Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014
 
Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment
Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the EnvironmentGreen Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment
Green Growth: The 2015 Election and the Environment
 
Dear Westminster: We need to talk
Dear Westminster: We need to talkDear Westminster: We need to talk
Dear Westminster: We need to talk
 
The Shock of the New? Britain in 2015
The Shock of the New? Britain in 2015The Shock of the New? Britain in 2015
The Shock of the New? Britain in 2015
 
Social Mobility in Britain
Social Mobility in BritainSocial Mobility in Britain
Social Mobility in Britain
 
The Changing Nature of Consumer Behaviour
The Changing Nature of Consumer BehaviourThe Changing Nature of Consumer Behaviour
The Changing Nature of Consumer Behaviour
 
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2015: Election Issues
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2015: Election IssuesIpsos MORI Political Monitor April 2015: Election Issues
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2015: Election Issues
 
Gen Y and Z Webinar with Ben Page from Ipsos Mori and Seb Reeve
Gen Y and Z Webinar with Ben Page from Ipsos Mori and Seb ReeveGen Y and Z Webinar with Ben Page from Ipsos Mori and Seb Reeve
Gen Y and Z Webinar with Ben Page from Ipsos Mori and Seb Reeve
 

Mais de Ipsos UK

Mais de Ipsos UK (20)

The Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit vote
The Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit voteThe Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit vote
The Beat: 5 years on from the Brexit vote
 
Bridging the gap: cyber security skills
Bridging the gap: cyber security skillsBridging the gap: cyber security skills
Bridging the gap: cyber security skills
 
The state of cyber resilience in the UK
The state of cyber resilience in the UKThe state of cyber resilience in the UK
The state of cyber resilience in the UK
 
Ipsos Global Advisor: The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate Change
Ipsos Global Advisor:  The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate ChangeIpsos Global Advisor:  The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate Change
Ipsos Global Advisor: The Perils of Perception: Environment and Climate Change
 
Ipsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah Everard
Ipsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah EverardIpsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah Everard
Ipsos Community: Quotes following the events around the vigil for Sarah Everard
 
Global Infrastructure Index 2020
Global Infrastructure Index 2020Global Infrastructure Index 2020
Global Infrastructure Index 2020
 
Women, work and COVID-19
Women, work and COVID-19Women, work and COVID-19
Women, work and COVID-19
 
US Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORI
US Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORIUS Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORI
US Election 2020 Webinar - Ipsos MORI
 
Sexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in Britain
Sexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in BritainSexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in Britain
Sexual orientation and attitudes to LGBTQ+ in Britain
 
COVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social Media
COVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social MediaCOVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social Media
COVID-19: Conspiracies and Confusions and the link with Social Media
 
Solving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMS
Solving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMSSolving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMS
Solving the Cyber Security Skills Gap with DCMS
 
Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020
Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020
Ipsos MORI Politial Pulse - April 2020
 
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020
 
International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?
International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?
International Women's Day 2020: What is acceptable behaviour in the workplace?
 
Coronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORI
Coronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORICoronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORI
Coronavirus Opinion and Reaction - Ipsos MORI
 
The Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of Death
The Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of DeathThe Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of Death
The Perils of Perception 2020: Causes of Death
 
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus Poll
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus PollPublic Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus Poll
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus Poll
 
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019
 
Ipsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - Housing
Ipsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - HousingIpsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - Housing
Ipsos MORI 2019 General Election Campign Tracker - Housing
 
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019
 

Último

Último (20)

Kishan Reddy Report To People (2019-24).pdf
Kishan Reddy Report To People (2019-24).pdfKishan Reddy Report To People (2019-24).pdf
Kishan Reddy Report To People (2019-24).pdf
 
Lorenzo D'Emidio_Lavoro sullaNorth Korea .pptx
Lorenzo D'Emidio_Lavoro sullaNorth Korea .pptxLorenzo D'Emidio_Lavoro sullaNorth Korea .pptx
Lorenzo D'Emidio_Lavoro sullaNorth Korea .pptx
 
China's soft power in 21st century .pptx
China's soft power in 21st century   .pptxChina's soft power in 21st century   .pptx
China's soft power in 21st century .pptx
 
2024 04 03 AZ GOP LD4 Gen Meeting Minutes FINAL.docx
2024 04 03 AZ GOP LD4 Gen Meeting Minutes FINAL.docx2024 04 03 AZ GOP LD4 Gen Meeting Minutes FINAL.docx
2024 04 03 AZ GOP LD4 Gen Meeting Minutes FINAL.docx
 
Verified Love Spells in Little Rock, AR (310) 882-6330 Get My Ex-Lover Back
Verified Love Spells in Little Rock, AR (310) 882-6330 Get My Ex-Lover BackVerified Love Spells in Little Rock, AR (310) 882-6330 Get My Ex-Lover Back
Verified Love Spells in Little Rock, AR (310) 882-6330 Get My Ex-Lover Back
 
Transformative Leadership: N Chandrababu Naidu and TDP's Vision for Innovatio...
Transformative Leadership: N Chandrababu Naidu and TDP's Vision for Innovatio...Transformative Leadership: N Chandrababu Naidu and TDP's Vision for Innovatio...
Transformative Leadership: N Chandrababu Naidu and TDP's Vision for Innovatio...
 
Enjoy Night⚡Call Girls Iffco Chowk Gurgaon >༒8448380779 Escort Service
Enjoy Night⚡Call Girls Iffco Chowk Gurgaon >༒8448380779 Escort ServiceEnjoy Night⚡Call Girls Iffco Chowk Gurgaon >༒8448380779 Escort Service
Enjoy Night⚡Call Girls Iffco Chowk Gurgaon >༒8448380779 Escort Service
 
Nara Chandrababu Naidu's Visionary Policies For Andhra Pradesh's Development
Nara Chandrababu Naidu's Visionary Policies For Andhra Pradesh's DevelopmentNara Chandrababu Naidu's Visionary Policies For Andhra Pradesh's Development
Nara Chandrababu Naidu's Visionary Policies For Andhra Pradesh's Development
 
AI as Research Assistant: Upscaling Content Analysis to Identify Patterns of ...
AI as Research Assistant: Upscaling Content Analysis to Identify Patterns of ...AI as Research Assistant: Upscaling Content Analysis to Identify Patterns of ...
AI as Research Assistant: Upscaling Content Analysis to Identify Patterns of ...
 
1971 war india pakistan bangladesh liberation.ppt
1971 war india pakistan bangladesh liberation.ppt1971 war india pakistan bangladesh liberation.ppt
1971 war india pakistan bangladesh liberation.ppt
 
05052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
05052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf05052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
05052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Group_5_US-China Trade War to understand the trade
Group_5_US-China Trade War to understand the tradeGroup_5_US-China Trade War to understand the trade
Group_5_US-China Trade War to understand the trade
 
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 47 (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 47 (Gurgaon)Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 47 (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 47 (Gurgaon)
 
2024 02 15 AZ GOP LD4 Gen Meeting Minutes_FINAL_20240228.docx
2024 02 15 AZ GOP LD4 Gen Meeting Minutes_FINAL_20240228.docx2024 02 15 AZ GOP LD4 Gen Meeting Minutes_FINAL_20240228.docx
2024 02 15 AZ GOP LD4 Gen Meeting Minutes_FINAL_20240228.docx
 
06052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
06052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf06052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
06052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Enjoy Night⚡Call Girls Rajokri Delhi >༒8448380779 Escort Service
Enjoy Night⚡Call Girls Rajokri Delhi >༒8448380779 Escort ServiceEnjoy Night⚡Call Girls Rajokri Delhi >༒8448380779 Escort Service
Enjoy Night⚡Call Girls Rajokri Delhi >༒8448380779 Escort Service
 
TDP As the Party of Hope For AP Youth Under N Chandrababu Naidu’s Leadership
TDP As the Party of Hope For AP Youth Under N Chandrababu Naidu’s LeadershipTDP As the Party of Hope For AP Youth Under N Chandrababu Naidu’s Leadership
TDP As the Party of Hope For AP Youth Under N Chandrababu Naidu’s Leadership
 
Gujarat-SEBCs.pdf pfpkoopapriorjfperjreie
Gujarat-SEBCs.pdf pfpkoopapriorjfperjreieGujarat-SEBCs.pdf pfpkoopapriorjfperjreie
Gujarat-SEBCs.pdf pfpkoopapriorjfperjreie
 
BDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 143 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort Service
BDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 143 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort ServiceBDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 143 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort Service
BDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 143 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort Service
 
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 46 (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 46 (Gurgaon)Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 46 (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 46 (Gurgaon)
 

Perceptions, Reality and Devolution

  • 1. Perceptions, reality and devolution Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI ben.page@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  • 2. Labour need a 9.6% swing in England in 2020 to win ELECTORAL ARITHMETIC IN 2020 House of Commons 2015 2.8 1.1 1.7 1.2 4.8 5.4 4.0 1.8 3.2 5.1 11.3 3.0 2.7 0.9 2.1 1.8 2.0 10.2 0.3 1945 1951 1959 1966 1974 (Feb) 1979 1987 1997 2005 2015 Swing to Con Swing to Lab
  • 4. 44
  • 5. The election, the polls, and aftermath Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI Ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori
  • 7. Exit poll - 316 Result - 331 Exit poll - 239 Result - 232 Exit poll - 10 Result - 8 Exit poll - 58 Result - 21 Exit poll - 2 Result - 1 Exit poll - 2 Result - 1 Result - 56 Exit poll - 23 Source: Ipsos MORI/GfK NOP for BBC/ITV News/Sky News Asking what did do, rather than what will…
  • 8. We got highest Conservative share and lowest error on this key calculation of who would be largest party… Average percentage point error on Conservative/Labour vote share
  • 9. Lots of social media activity by the young, fewer votes
  • 10. So what’s worrying voters and residents? Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 May 2015 NHS UNEMPLOYMENT CRIME/LAW & ORDER ECONOMY IMMIGRATION* *Up until September 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants
  • 11. Cameron becomes PM Education / Schools not a problem What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0 10 20 30 40 50 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 May 2015 Introduction of means-tested tuition fees. Education most important issue. First City Academies introduced Lowest score since Dec 1985 (9%) Labour’s second term - pledge to improve failing secondary schools April 2011 – Pupil Premium introduced Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
  • 12. Cameron becomes PM Issues Facing Britain: Defence / Foreign Affairs / International terrorism What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 May 2015 9/11 London Bombs Invasion of Iraq – protests across Europe Failed terror attacks in London and Glasgow UK withdraws from Iraq War in Kosovo Parliamentary vote against action in Syria NATO bombing in Libya Rise of ISIS Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
  • 13. Cameron becomes PM Poverty/inequality? What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0 5 10 15 20 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 May 2015 Sept 1999: Alastair Darling – “one child in three” living in poverty July 2014: highest score recorded (18%) January 2005: Make Poverty History campaign launched on New Year’s Day Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
  • 14. Cameron becomes PM Record concern about housing What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 May 2015 A8 Countries join the EU House prices rising at fastest rate in 10 years Highest score since October 1974 (20%) Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
  • 15. People do not think they are being affected by cuts AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED A NUMBER OF SPENDING CUTS TO HELP REDUCE THE NATIONAL DEBT TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, HAVE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY BEEN AFFECTED BY THE CUTS SO FAR? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI 8% 8% 25% 15% 49% 39% 10% 37% 8% 2% November 2012 August 2015 A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know 76%23% 59%33%
  • 16. And concern about future effects of cuts decreased significantly… AND HOW CONCERNED, IF AT ALL, ARE YOU ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE CUTS ON YOU AND YOUR FAMILY IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI 19% 19% 42% 27% 28% 30% 5% 22% 6% 1% November 2012 August 2015 A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know 52%46% 33%61%
  • 17. This is despite people being more likely to think services have got worse than better Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC SERVICES OVERALL, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OF PUBLIC SERVICES HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll 3% 4% 12% 12% 42% 39% 20% 23% 20% 20% 3% 3% September 2013 September 2015 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know 16% 40%15% 43%
  • 18. And most still disagree the government has the right policies for public services On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain's public services. Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ every month Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 56 37Agree Disagree
  • 19. Public is seeing more decline in quality of health and social care than they were two years ago 19 4% 2% 11% 7% 11% 10% 7% 11% 16% 17% 18% 17% 22% 27% 36% 34% 41% 33% 10% 16% 14% 19% 14% 19% 12% 20% 16% 16% 14% 19% 44% 24% 7% 7% 2% 3% 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know GP surgeries Hospitals Care for the elderly Base: 1,006 British adults 18 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 27% 38% 29% 28% 24% 35% 27% 30% 13% 36% 11% 22%
  • 20. Users also on balance negative – more so in the case of care for the elderly 9% 5% 11% 7% 10% 10% 13% 17% 16% 19% 19% 17% 27% 30% 36% 33% 42% 32% 13% 15% 15% 19% 14% 20% 19% 26% 17% 17% 14% 19% 12% 7% 5% 5% 1% 2% 2013 (210) 2015 (172) 2013 (888) 2015 (807) 2013 (938) 2015 (904) Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Users of GP surgeries Users of hospitals Users of care for the elderly Base: All whose household benefits from named service 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM SERVICE) 27% 39% 29% 28% 26% 36% 27% 32% 22% 41% 22% 32%
  • 21. Anxiety about the NHS takes off….. Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 21THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 55 19 Better Worse
  • 22. We’re evenly split of whether education will to get better, worse or stay the same THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 5% 26% 32% 23% 9% 5% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 31% 32%
  • 24. 13% 10% 27% 26% 7% 6% 8% 8% 16% 12% 21% 22% 12% 16% 12% 11% 45% 51% 37% 34% 54% 47% 58% 57% 11% 13% 6% 8% 10% 12% 9% 10% 12% 12% 6% 7% 11% 14% 8% 10% 3% 2% 3% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 2013 Aug-15 2013 Sep-15 2013 Aug-15 2013 Aug-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Street lighting Refuse collection Street cleaning Recycling collection No big shifts in views of local street scene services – just slight increases in people saying they’ve got worse 24 Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 19% 20% 20% 17% 19% 26% 22% 15% 22% 21% 48% 25% 48% 12% 29% 23%
  • 25. 15% 12% 9% 7% 14% 10% 18% 20% 11% 12% 11% 14% 44% 46% 35% 35% 38% 33% 9% 10% 9% 14% 4% 9% 6% 6% 7% 9% 3% 6% 8% 6% 29% 23% 30% 29% 2013 Aug-15 2013 Sep-15 2013 Aug-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Leisure centres Parks and open spaces Libraries Slightly greater shifts towards thinking leisure centres and libraries have got worse – but relatively few noticing changes 25 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 24% 15% 25% 7% 20% 23% 33% 16% 19% 16% 32% 15%
  • 26. 4% 4% 8% 8% 7% 10% 13% 11% 20% 28% 39% 37% 18% 18% 11% 14% 49% 39% 8% 11% 2% 2% 20% 20% 2013 Aug-15 2013 Aug-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Bus services Road maintenance Concern about road maintenance still very high Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 19% 25% 21% 19% 11% 57%14% 67%
  • 27. Expectations split on future of public transport THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 5% 21% 36% 24% 8% 6% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 26% 32%
  • 29. 5% 3% 10% 9% 43% 39% 15% 21% 13% 18% 13% 10% 2013 Sep-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know The police More worried about policing Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 12% 39% 28%15%
  • 30. A third also expect local policing to get worse in the next few years THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 3% 12% 46% 26% 9% 4% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 15% 35%
  • 31. 31% 27% 16% 21% 12% 18% 16% 15% 21% 16% 4% 3% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know 2015 2013 Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? People more likely to agree than disagree that cuts to welfare gone too far… I THINK CUTS TO WELFARE AND BENEFITS HAVE GONE TOO FAR 48% 31% 37%47%
  • 32. 29% 22% 30% 25% 11% 16% 9% 17% 16% 17% 6% 3% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know 2015 2013 Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? …although they also think the cuts have been necessary – but less so than in 2013 I THINK REDUCTIONS IN SOCIAL WELFARE BENEFITS HAVE BEEN NECESSARY But people are not always consistent: eg 37% of those who think welfare cuts have gone too far also think that the reductions in benefits have been necessary 47% 34% 25%59%
  • 34. AND WHAT PROPORTION OF THE GOVERNMENT’S PLANNED CUTS TO PUBLIC SPENDING DO YOU THINK HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT SO FAR? 40% 28% November 2012 August 2015 People think only 28% of planned cuts have been made – less than they thought in 2012 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 35. I WOULD NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT PUBLIC SPENDING ON DIFFERENT SERVICES OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS. FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME BY WHAT PERCENT YOU THINK SPENDING HAS INCREASED OR DECREASED IN REAL TERMS OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS? PLEASE GIVE YOUR BEST ESTIMATE IF YOU ARE NOT SURE. -20% -9% -12% -6% 4% -3% -1% -5% -19% 0% 13% -2% -13% 1% -49% -5% 65% 11% -54% +44% +14% -15% +19% -4% -7% +6% +11% Source: Ipsos MORI Foreign aid [Foreign economic aid] Housing [housing development: local authority and other social housing] Education [all education services from pre-primary to tertiary and others*] Pensions and old age benefits [pensions and old age personal social services] Transport [national and local roads, local public transport, railway and other transport] Other benefits [all social protection not including old age benefits and pensions] Health services / NHS [includes medical services and research and central and other health services] Defence [includes military, civil, R&D and other defence and foreign military aid] Policing [includes immigration and citizenship and other police services] Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual But public is wrong about lots of things…. Gap
  • 37. Source: Ipsos MORIFieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 As long as services are delivered well, most do not care who makes the decisions, 14% 7% 38% 29% 22% 36% 15% 14% 6% 8% 5% 6% I don’t care who is responsible for making decisions about services in my local area so long as they are delivered well I trust local politicians/councillors more than national politicians/MPs and ministers to make decisions about services in my local area Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements…? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) 52% 36%
  • 38. Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 You what? Devolution less exciting to them than you Q. Before today, how much, if anything, would you say you knew about the proposals for devolving more power to local councils, or groups of councils, within England? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) 23% 25% 27% 22% 19% 21% 20% 17% 3% 17% 34% 25% 17% 3% A great deal A fair amount Just a little Heard of, but know nothing about Never heard of Don't know 16% % knowing ‘a great deal’ or a ‘fair amount’ about devolution 76%
  • 39. Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 All regions support more devolution Q. Thinking overall, to what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving more decision-making powers (on issues such as economic development, transport, housing, planning and policing) to local areas? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) 14 16 19 14 15 18 17 20 18 17 57 54 53 48 46 46 46 44 42 49 Yorkshire and The Humber North West South West East Midlands West Midlands South East Greater London North East East of England Overall % Oppose % Support Net +% +42 +38 +33 +34 +31 +29 +28 +24 +24 +32
  • 40. Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 Support for increased accountability and flexibility to respond to local area needs…however, only a third expect standards of public service to improve 59% 59% 56% 42% 33% 22% 3% 1% 1% It will allow local councils and other local agencies like the police to be more flexible in responding to changing local… Local politicians know better than national politicians what is best for the local area Decisions affecting me should be made by local politicians who are more accountable to local people It will lead to better joining up and co-ordination between public services in the local area Standards of public services will improve in the local area It will save money when delivering services Something else No reason Don’t know Q. Why do you say you support devolving more powers to local areas? Base: All adults stating they support devolution (1862)
  • 41. Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 Concerns that devolution will result in a ‘postcode lottery’ when it comes to service delivery – plus distrust in politicians 58% 58% 44% 43% 41% 41% 39% 36% 27% 11% *% 1% Standards of services risk being different depending on where you live – a ‘postcode lottery’ I don’t trust local politicians to make the right decisions for the local area It will lead to services being less joined up It will do nothing to improve local services It won’t lead to savings Local politicians do not always know what is best for the local area It will cost money to implement Standards of service will decline in the local area I think taxes will increase Something else No reason Don’t know Q. Why do you say you oppose devolving more powers to local areas? Base: All stating they don’t support devolution (656)
  • 42. Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 On many issues say do want local control…. 17% 25% 35% 36% 44% 56% 64% 65% 57% 47% 47% 38% 26% 18% New housing developments Transport, such as buses/cycle network & trains Schools and further education colleges Crime and policing services Health and social care services New infrastructure projects related to air/rail/road networks Welfare benefit payments, such as HB and CTC Nationally Locally Q. For each of the following services, do you think decisions should be taken nationally for England as a whole or locally by local bodies such as councils or other local service providers? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
  • 43. Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 But also want SAME STANDARDS everywhere…. Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement…? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) 36% 35% 16% 6% 1%5% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know “Standards of public services should be the same everywhere in England”
  • 44. Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 Need to elect a mayor is more likely than not to make public support devolution, although over a quarter are undecided 17% 19% 15% 13% 9% 27% I support more devolution regardless of the need to elect a… I am more likely to support devolution if I have to elect a… I am less likely to support devolution if I have to elect a mayor I do not support devolution anyway regardless of whether it might… None of the above Don’t know Q. Which of these statements comes closest to your views about devolution and the need for a mayor? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
  • 45. Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 Most people think the London mayor has had a positive impact Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) 9% 37% 31% 6% 3% 15% Very positive Fairly positive No impact Fairly negative Very negative Don't know Q. As you may know London has an independent elected mayor, currently Boris Johnson. Do you think that having an independently elected mayor has had a positive or negative impact on London? 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 9% 40% 42% 36% 30% 37% 37% 36% 26% 36% 37% South East Greater London South West West Midlands Yorkshire and The… East of England East Midlands North East North West Overall Very positive impact Fairly positive impact 45%
  • 46. Source: Ipsos MORIFieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 7% 25% 30% 15% 10% 14% Consistently find mixed views of giving tax/spend powers to you Q. To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving similar powers around tax and spending for… Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) 7% 26% 30% 14% 10% 13% STRONGLY SUPPORT TEND TO SUPPORT NEITHER SUPPORT NOR OPPOSE TEND TO OPPOSE STRONGLY OPPOSE DON’T KNOW Support 33% Oppose 24% Support 31% Oppose 25% Major cities English counties +9 +6
  • 47.
  • 48. Some evidence we are actually getting happier Fairly or very satisfied with life overall 1975 2014 94% 86%
  • 49. In conclusion - change is coming (as always) Technology changes fast Values change relatively slowly Transparency and lack of trust… Greatest human needs unchanged Things aren’t so bad Good luck!