Leaders, policies and voting: Lessons from measuring Implicit Reaction Time

GE2017 IRT Study | June 2017 | v1 | Public
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
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1
LEADERS,
POLICIES &
VOTING
LESSONS FROM
MEASURING
IMPLICIT
REACTION TIME

2GE2017 IRT Study | June 2017 | v1 | Public
Overview
 Implicit Reaction TimeTM (IRT) measures the speed at which people express an opinion. In
the context of the upcoming General Election this helps us to understand the extent to which
voters hold strong positive associations between: different leadership qualities and Theresa
May or Jeremy Corbyn; different areas of policy and the Labour Party or Conservative Party;
and different statements on voting behaviours.
 Ipsos MORI conducted an IRT study among 929 adults aged 18-75 online between 15-17th
May 2017. We found that, at this point in the campaign:
Voters see Corbyn as in touch with ordinary people, and May as a capable leader who is good
in a crisis. Averaging across all attributes tested, May is seen as the best leader overall.
Both explicitly and emphatically, Conservatives fare better policies such as defence and security,
Brexit, the economy, immigration and taxation, whilst voters prefer Labour’s policies for housing,
welfare and benefits, and the NHS.
For voters, Brexit is still difficult to understand, with voters finding it most difficult to choose
between parties’ policies.
Emphatic responses regarding intention to vote are closer to reality than explicit ones, and with
only 37% of voters emphatically saying they have ‘definitely decided who to vote for’ suggesting
the outcomes of the election is still far from certain.

3
INTRODUCTION

What is Implicit Reaction Time (IRT)?
• Based on the scientific principle of perceptual
fluency, IRT reveals the strength of
respondents' unconscious associations,
by using response time to measure
the distance between two concepts within a
neural network.
• The closer the association between two
concepts (for example, ‘Jeremy Corbyn’ and
‘capable leader’), the more conviction we
have and the more quickly and easily we are
able to respond.
• When things are not closely associated,
response times are slow, because it takes
more time for us to reconcile or work out the
relationship between the two concepts.
We process information in two
ways:
• System 1 “is the brain’s fast,
automatic, intuitive approach,
• System 2 “the mind’s slower,
analytical mode, where
reason dominates.”

Why is this important for GE2017?
 The outcome of recent elections has become harder to predict. The debates around Scottish
Independence, and UK independence from the EU have increased the number of issues at
stake, and have also made it harder to predict voter turnout.
 Moreover, the dynamic of choosing who to vote for is never constant: whether voters are
most attracted to leaders, policies or parties changes each year. Currently, voters say that
leadership is more important in deciding who to vote for in 2017 than it was in 2015.
 It is therefore important to try and go beyond the stated answers given in surveys, and seek to
uncover the unconscious associations that may ultimately decide who someone votes for.
 Ipsos MORI therefore sought to use IRT to help us uncover unconscious associations in three
different areas:
1) The extent to which voters hold strong positive associations between different
leadership qualities and Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn.
2) The extent to which voters hold strong positive associations between different areas of
policy and the Labour Party or Conservative Party.
3) The extent to which voters hold strong positive associations between different
statements on voting behaviours.

GE2017 IRT Study | June 2017 | v1 | Public 6
LEADERS: Key findings
 May is seen as a more favourable leader than Corbyn on most fronts, seen as the best leader
voters overall, by her supporters, and those who voted to Leave. She is also perceived just as
well as Corbyn by Remain voters. In contrast, Corbyn has lost ground among 2015 Labour
voters – particularly the case for extent of association with: ‘capable leader’, ‘clear vision for
Britain’, ‘good in crisis’, ‘good negotiator’, ‘sound judgement’.
 With the exception of being ‘in touch with ordinary people’, May is broadly in line with or
outperforms Corbyn in all other areas. Though voters are more uncertain whether she is
‘patriotic.’
 Among Labour supporters, Corbyn is strongly associated with being ’honest’ and ‘genuine’,
but they are less confident he ‘understands Britain’s problems’ or has a ‘clear vision’.
Conservative supporters are least convinced that May is ‘patriotic’ or is ‘in touch with
ordinary people’ (three in ten chose Corbyn in this attribute).
 Associations are closely aligned with age, which become more favourable towards May,
particularly with reference to being a ‘capable leader’.

10%
25%
34%
43%
19%
38%
22%
44%
45%
29%
Voted Leave
Voted Remain
Voted Labour 2015
Intending to vote Labour
All
Voted Leave
Voted Remain
Voted Conservative 2015
Intending to vote Conservative
All
% Selecting Corbyn/May emphatically % Selecting Corbyn/May overall
May is seen as the best leader among all voters overall;
39%
92%
61%
83%
Average across all ten attributes
67%
51%
24%
89%
49%
76%
perceived better by her supporters and those who voted Leave;
and perceived just as well as Corbyn by those who voted Remain.
Base: All (929); Intending to vote Conservative (354); Intending to vote Labour (261); Voted Conservative 2015 (264);
Voted Labour 2015 (227); Referendum vote ‘Remain’ (398); Referendum vote ‘Leave’ (428); adults aged 18-75 online; 15-17th May 2017

33%
29%
28%
19%
14%
14%
13%
12%
13%
11%
12%
21%
28%
23%
33%
37%
21%
37%
43%
36%
In touch with ordinary
people
Honest
Genuine
Understands Britain’s
problems
Clear vision for Britain
Sound judgement
Patriotic
Good negotiator
Capable leader
Good in a crisis
61%
48%
48%
48%
35%
34%
31%
30%
28%
28%
39%
52%
52%
52%
65%
66%
69%
70%
72%
72%
% Selected Corbyn overall % Selected May overall
% Selected Corbyn emphatically % Selected May emphatically
For each phrase please select the party leader you think it best describes.
May seen to have a strong association with being a capable leader,
whereas many less emphatic in saying she is patriotic. Corbyn seen
as much more in touch with ordinary people. But overall May is
explicitly and emphatically associated with more attributes.
Base: 929 adults aged 18-75 online; 15-17th May 2017

% Selected Corbyn overall (those voting Labour only) % Selected May overall (those voting Conservative only)
% Selected Corbyn emphatically (those voting Labour only) % Selected May emphatically (those voting Conservative only)
39%
34%
69%
26%
26%
62%
62%
27%
37%
45%
Capable leader
Clear vision for Britain
Genuine
Good in a crisis
Good negotiator
Honest
In touch with ordinary
people
Patriotic
Sound judgement
Understands Britain’s
problems
63%
52%
48%
53%
57%
37%
20%
27%
58%
39%
77%
84%
95%
70%
73%
93%
96%
67%
83%
93%
100%
99%
89%
100%
98%
86%
68%
92%
98%
89%
Conservative supporters are much more emphatic about May
a capable leader, having sound judgement, and being a good
negotiator, while Labour supporters are more emphatic that
Corbyn is genuine, honest, and in touch with ordinary people.
Base: Intending to vote Conservative (354); Intending to vote Labour (261) adults aged 18-75 online; 15-17th May 2017

24%
22%
21%
26%
10%
38%
Average across all ten attributes
% Selected Corbyn overall % Selected May overall
% Selected Corbyn emphatically % Selected May emphatically
18-34
35-54
55+
51%
49%
44%
56%
22%
78%
Neck and neck overall, however
May much more associated with
being a capable leader, good in a
crisis & good negotiator
May ahead here, but Corbyn
seen as more in touch. 40%
emphatic that May is capable
leader
May more associated with all
attributes, but in particular being
a capable leader and sound
judgement (50%+ emphatic)
Clear pattern of older participants more likely to view May
favourably, with those 55+ around 4 times as likely
to pick May over Corbyn, both overall and emphatically.
Base: 18-34 (253); 35-54 (332); 55+ (344) adults aged 18-75 online; 15-17th May 2017

PARTIES: Key findings
 The Conservative Party is seen as having the best policies in relation to defence and security,
Brexit, the economy, immigration and taxation.
 The Labour Party is seen as having the policies in the areas of housing, welfare and benefits
and the NHS – but only by a small margin. The only policy area in which the Labour party’s
policies outstripped the Conservatives’ was poverty and inequality.
 Looking at these findings by voting intention, current Conservative voters, are most
emphatic about their party’s policies on defence and security and the economy, whereas
Labour supporters are most emphatic about Labour’s policies on welfare and benefits.
 Although Brexit is seen as the biggest issue, voters are finding it the area where it is most
difficult to choose between parties’ policies: only one in three gave an emphatic response at
this question, illustrating the high levels of uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process.
 Younger voters are more likely to hold strong positive associations with Labour: on almost all
areas, those aged 18-34 were more likely than older voters to emphatically support Labour.

% Selected Labour overall % Selected Conservatives overall
% Selected Labour emphatically % Selected Conservatives emphatically
Conservatives are emphatically seen as best for defence and
31%
32%
27%
26%
29%
14%
20%
18%
9%
16%
13%
21%
18%
18%
28%
22%
24%
36%
27%
41%Defence and security
Britain leaving the EU
The economy
Immigration
Taxation
Education and schools
Housing
Welfare and benefits
The NHS and health
Poverty and inequality63%
56%
53%
52%
51%
42%
41%
35%
34%
29%
37%
44%
47%
48%
49%
58%
59%
65%
66%
71%
the economy. However, although the majority also think they
are best for Brexit, they are less emphatic in this view.
For each phrase please select the party with the best policies in this area.

Although Brexit is seen as the biggest issue, voters are finding it
the area where it is most difficult to choose between parties:
only one in three gave an emphatic response.
29% 16% 18% 32% 27% 26% 20% 31% 14% 9%
28%
41%
36%
21%
18% 18%
24%
13%
22%
27%
Education
and schools
Defence
and
security
The
economy
The NHS
and health
Welfare
and
benefits
Housing Immigration Poverty
and
inequality
Taxation Britain
leaving EU
57% (total) 56%
54% 53%
45% 44% 44% 44%
36% 35%
% Selected Labour emphatically % Selected Conservatives emphaticallymphatically

Younger voters are more likely to hold strong positive associations
with Labour: on almost all areas, those aged 18-34 were more
likely than older voters to emphatically support Labour.
39%
37%
36%
34%
30%
27% 26%
20%
14%
10%
36%
33%
28%
35%
27%
22%
21%
19%
16%
12%
21%
17%
18%
23% 23%
12%
8% 8%
12%
4%
The NHS
and health
Education
and schools
Welfare
and
benefits
Poverty
and
inequality
Housing Immigration The
economy
Defence
and
security
Taxation Britain
leaving EU
% Labour emphatically
aged 18-34
aged 35-54
aged 55+

Looking at the key issues for Brexit it is clear that, among Leave
11%
11%
7%
11%
26%
26%
9%
20%
29%
48%
37%
52%
20%
28%
20%
35%Defence and security
The economy
Immigration
Defence and security
The economy
Immigration24%
22%
18%
19%
55%
48%
48%
39%
78%
82%
81%
45%
52%
52%
61%
voters, emphatic support is higher for the Conservative Party’s
Remain voters
76%
% Selected Labour overall % Selected Conservatives overall
% Selected Labour emphatically % Selected Conservatives emphatically
Leave voters
policies.
Base: Referendum vote ‘Remain’ (398); Referendum vote ‘Leave’ (428); adults aged 18-75 online; 15-17th May 2017

VOTING: Key findings
 Implicit Reaction Time testing highlights the overclaim made by the general public through regular
polling.
 Emphatic responses regarding voting intentions are closer to reality than explicit ones. Although four in
five (83%) claim that they are absolutely certain to vote in this election, two thirds say this emphatically, a
much more realistic figure.
 Furthermore, whilst two thirds claim that they have definitely decided who to vote for, only 37% say this
emphatically, indicating that both election outcomes are still far from certain.
 Those intending to vote Conservative are 7 percentage points more likely to say emphatically that they are
certain to vote, and 10 percentage points more likely to say emphatically that they have definitely decided
who to vote for.
 Those intending to vote Conservative are also 19 percentage points more likely to emphatically say that
they always vote in elections.
 Leave voters are more likely to have already decided who to vote for, whilst Remain voters are more likely
to consider voting tactically. However, more Remain voters say (both explicitly and emphatically) that
voting should be compulsory.
 Perhaps unsurprisingly, those aged 55+ are significantly more likely to say (both explicitly and
emphatically) that they are certain to vote in this election, and registered to do so.

66%
30%
62%
54%
44%
52%
37%
24%
9%11%
94%
87%
83%81%81%79%
65%
58%
49%
35%
I am
registered to
vote
Every vote
counts
I am
absolutely
certain to vote
in this election
I voted in the
2015 General
Election
The election
result is very
important to
me
I always vote
in elections
I have
definitely
decided who
to vote for
Voting should
be compulsory
I would
consider
voting
tactically
I am a strong
supporter of a
political party
% 'Agree' emphatically % 'Agree' overall
Although two thirds claim that they have definitely decided
who to vote for, only 37% say this emphatically, indicating
Please select the response which best describes how you feel about each statement
that election outcomes are still far from certain.

% Explicit ‘Agree’ by those voting Labour % Explicit ‘Agree’ by those voting Conservative
% Emphatic ‘Agree’ by those voting Labour % Emphatic ‘Agree’ by those voting Conservative
Those intending to vote Conservative are 7pts more likely to say
-70%
-31%
-65%
-47%
-56%
-45%
-40%
-27%
-20%
-96%
-90%
-89%
-88%
-83%
-81%
-73%
-69%
-63%
-44%
67%
35%
72%
52%
61%
64%
50%
7%
24%
11%
99%
95%
95%
93%
93%
91%
84%
41%
66%
42%I am a strong supporter of a political party
Voting should be compulsory
I would consider voting tactically
I have definitely decided who to vote for
I always vote in elections
I voted in the 2015 General Election
The election result is very important to me
I am absolutely certain to vote in this
election
Every vote counts
I am registered to vote
emphatically that they are certain to vote, and 10pts more likely to say
emphatically that they have definitely decided who to vote for.
11%
Base: Intending to vote Conservative (316); Intending to vote Labour (220) adults aged 18-75 online; 15-17th May 2017

% Selected ‘Agree’ overall % Selected ‘Agree’ overall
% Selected ‘Agree’ emphatically % Selected ‘Agree’ emphatically
Leave voters are more likely to have already decided who to vote
-71%
-65%
-56%
-30%
-48%
-53%
-36%
-28%
-12%
-14%
-97%
-89%
-86%
-86%
-84%
-82%
66%
60%
59%
38%
70%
69%
63%
31%
46%
57%
45%
23%
7%
10%
98%
90%
93%
93%
86%
87%
74%
64%
43%
39%
for, whilst Remain voters are more likely to consider voting
tactically.
Remain Leave
I am a strong supporter of a political party
Every vote counts
I am absolutely certain to vote in this
election
Base: Referendum vote ‘Remain’ (398); Referendum vote ‘Leave’ (428); adults aged 18-75 online; 15-17th May 2017
voters voters

% Explicit ‘Agree’ by 2015 Labour voters % Explicit ‘Agree’ by 2015 Conservative voters
% Emphatic ‘Agree’ by 2015 Labour voters % Emphatic ‘Agree’ by 2015 Conservative voters
Those who previously voted Conservative are 10% more likely to
-66%
-75%
-68%
-59%
-44%
-29%
-49%
-14%
-27%
-17%
-98%
-98%
-93%
-93%
-90%
-89%
-79%
-65%
-65%
-45%
64%
67%
78%
66%
53%
33%
48%
8%
31%
16%
100%
98%
99%
96%
95%
98%
83%
35%
74%
49%I am a strong supporter of a political party
Every vote counts
I am absolutely certain to vote in this election
emphatically say they will be voting in this election than those
who voted Labour, and that they always vote.
Base: Voted Labour in 2015 (227); Voted Conservative in 2015 (264) adults aged 18-75 online; 15-17th May 2017

33%
57%
34%
57%
43%
72%
59%
79%
61%
79%
76%
91%
I have definitely decided
who to vote for
I am absolutely certain
to vote in this election
who to vote for
who to vote for
% 'Agree' emphatically % 'Agree' overall
18-3435-5455+
Those aged 55+ are more likely to respond emphatically that they
have definitely decided who to vote for, and that are absolutely
certain to.

22
METHOD

Method (i)
Implicit Reaction Time™ by Ipsos & NEUROHM is the second generation of latency measures. It incorporates
a ‘noise’ reduction algorithm to control individual differences in the speed of the neurotransmission as well
as for the level of fatigue or length of words:
• Participants were exposed to stimulus and then underwent a calibration exercise to account for
individual variation such as computer speed, motor skills.
• For each exercise, participants were shown set of statements or phrases, and asked to select the answer
they most closely associated with the statement.
• Looking at both the response and the speed of response allows us to capture both their explicit and
implicit response.
• We analysed the speed with which they answer the scale to uncover their unconscious conviction.
Fieldwork took place between 15-17th May 2017 with 929 adults aged 18-75 online in the UK.
Data has been weighted by age, gender, region and work status.
Each participant completed IRT modules for all three exercises – the answer options and attributes for which
are shown overleaf. The order in which participants viewed attributes within a module was randomised, and
the answer options were rotated from Left to Right for different halves of the sample.
The three IRT modules were completed as part of a wider online survey collecting further information about
voting intention and the General Election.

Method (ii)
LEADERS
Answer options: Theresa May or
Jeremy Corbyn
CAPABLE LEADER
CLEAR VISION FOR BRITAIN
GENUINE
GOOD IN A CRISIS
GOOD NEGOTIATOR
HONEST
IN TOUCH WITH ORDINARY PEOPLE
PATRIOTIC
SOUND JUDGEMENT
UNDERSTANDS BRITAIN’S PROBLEMS
PARTY POLICIES
Answer options: The Labour Party
or the Conservative Party
BRITAIN LEAVING THE EU
DEFENCE AND SECURITY
EDUCATION AND SCHOOLS
HOUSING
IMMIGRATION
POVERTY AND INEQUALITY
TAXATION
THE ECONOMY
THE NHS AND HEALTH
WELFARE AND BENEFITS
VOTING
Answer options: Agree or Disagree
EVERY VOTE COUNTS
I ALWAYS VOTE IN ELECTIONS
I AM A STRONG SUPPORTER OF A
POLITICAL PARTY
I AM ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE IN
THIS ELECTION
I AM REGISTERED TO VOTE
I HAVE DEFINITELY DECIDED WHO TO
VOTE FOR
I VOTED IN THE 2015 GENERAL ELECTION
I WOULD CONSIDER VOTING TACTICALLY
THE ELECTION RESULT IS VERY
IMPORTANT TO ME
VOTING SHOULD BE COMPULSORY

www.ipsos-mori.com/
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI Social Research
Institute
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
0207 347 3000
For further information, please contact:
Gideon Skinner
Senior Research Executive
Institute
marzieh.talebi@ipsos.com
0207 347 3000
Marzieh Talebi
Associate Director
Institute
josh.keith@ipsos.com
0207 347 3000
Josh Keith

Leaders, policies and voting: Lessons from measuring Implicit Reaction Time

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