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Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CL...
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CL...
3Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ips...
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CL...
5Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
47%
53%49%51%
ALL
ALL REGISTERED TO VOTE AND FILTERED BY
LIKELY TURNOUT
Q...
6Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
43%
49%
3%
5%
43%
45%
5%
2%4%
ALL
ALL REGISTERED TO VOTE AND FILTERED BY
...
7Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN / LEAVE THE EUR...
8Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
AND SINCE APRIL, HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR MIND ON HOW YOU WILL VOTE IN THE
R...
9Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
THINKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERSHIP, WHICH OF T...
10Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
13
7
6
10
9
9
7
15
33
28
11
7
5
6
7
8
11
12
28
33
Don’t know
Nothing/non...
11Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
IF BRITAIN VOTES TO STAY IN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, DO YOU THINK YOU...
12Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
FROM THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU THINK THEY ARE MOSTLY TELLING ...
13Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IS TRUE OR FALSE ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAP...
14Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IS TRUE OR FALSE ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAP...
15Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
COULD YOU PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU’VE HEARD OF THE FOLLOWING CLAIM? IF YOU ...
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CL...
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - June 2016

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With just one week to go until the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union Ipsos MORI finds Leave with a six point lead over Remain. When excluding the “don’t knows” and those not registered, and using our standard turnout filter 53% say they will vote for Britain to leave the EU while 47% say they will vote to remain.

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - June 2016

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORI June 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 743. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out. Voting Intention 34% 36% 11% 4% 8% 7% ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER 35% 34% 10% 4% 9% 8%
  4. 4. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 4 EUROPE
  5. 5. 5Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 47% 53%49%51% ALL ALL REGISTERED TO VOTE AND FILTERED BY LIKELY TURNOUT QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION – SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016 / 979 all registered to vote and 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/depends vote in general elections European Referendum voting intention REMAIN LEAVE QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE? all expressing an opinion
  6. 6. 6Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 43% 49% 3% 5% 43% 45% 5% 2%4% ALL ALL REGISTERED TO VOTE AND FILTERED BY LIKELY TURNOUT QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION – SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016 / 979 all registered to vote and 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/depends vote in general elections European Referendum voting intention REMAIN LEAVE UNDECIDED WOULD NOT VOTE REFUSED QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016 Have the EU referendum voters decided yet? 57% 58% 63% 64% 69% 73% 79% 40% 39% 35% 33% 28% 25% 20% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public AND SINCE APRIL, HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR MIND ON HOW YOU WILL VOTE IN THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EU? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016 Changed mind on voting intention since April? YES, HAVE CHANGED MIND NO, HAVE NOT CHANGED MIND DON’T KNOW 15% 83% 2%
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public THINKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERSHIP, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OUTCOMES DO YOU THINK IS MOST LIKELY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016 Public’s view on the most likely outcome BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION DON’T KNOW 62% 26% 12% 47% 38% 15% FEB 2016 JUNE 2016
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 13 7 6 10 9 9 7 15 33 28 11 7 5 6 7 8 11 12 28 33 Don’t know Nothing/none The ability to travel in the European Union Britain’s ability to trade with countries in the European Union The cost of EU immigration on Britain’s welfare system The impact on British jobs Impact on public services/housing Britain’s ability to make its own laws The impact on Britain’s economy The number of immigrants coming into Britain Jun-16 May-16 LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON JUNE 23RD, WHICH, IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE? AND WHICH OF THESE ISSUES, IF ANY, THAT YOU MENTIONED IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Issues important to EU voting Unprompted – top responses only Base: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public IF BRITAIN VOTES TO STAY IN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, DO YOU THINK YOUR LIFE IN FIVE YEARS’ TIME WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE THAN IT IS NOW, OR WILL IT BE NO DIFFERENT? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016 Life after the referendum 18% 45% 28% 9% BETTER WORSE NO DIFFERENT DON’T KNOW 31% 23% 32% 14% STAY IN LEAVE
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public FROM THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU THINK THEY ARE MOSTLY TELLING THE TRUTH ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF BRITAIN STAYED IN OR LEFT THE EUROPEAN UNION, OR ARE THEY MOSTLY TELLING LIES. Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016 How truthful are the campaigns? 19 31 30 46 46 47 17 13 12 17 11 12 Politicians from both the Leave and Remain campaign Politicians from the Leave campaign Politicians from the Remain campaign MOSTLY TELLING THE TRUTH MOSTLY TELLING LIES TELL TRUTH AND LIES EQUALLY DON’T KNOW
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IS TRUE OR FALSE ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE/REMAIN WITHIN THE EU? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Belief in claims made during the campaigns 48 45 28 40 45 62 12 10 10 Britain would be made to pay billions of pounds in bailouts for eurozone countries in the future Turkey will be fast-tracked into the European Union and their population of 75 million people will have the right to free movement to the UK There will be a higher risk of sex attacks on women by migrants Base: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016 If Britain votes to remain TRUE FALSE DON’T KNOW
  14. 14. 14Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IS TRUE OR FALSE ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE/REMAIN WITHIN THE EU? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Belief in claims made during the campaigns 32 21 17 59 61 70 9 18 13 The peace and stability on our continent will be put at risk The stability of Northern Ireland will be put at risk UK households will lose £4,300 per year and will be made permanently poorer Base: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016 If Britain votes to leave TRUE FALSE DON’T KNOW
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public COULD YOU PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU’VE HEARD OF THE FOLLOWING CLAIM? IF YOU HAVEN’T HEARD IT PLEASE SAY SO. BRITAIN SENDS £350 MILLION A WEEK TO THE EUROPEAN UNION AND DO YOU BELIEVE THIS CLAIM TO BE TRUE OR FALSE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016 Public opinion on veracity of Britain sending 78% 21% 1% YES, HAVE HEARD THIS NO, HAVE NOT HEARD THIS DON’T KNOW 47% 39% 14% HEARD OF IT TRUE OR FALSE? £350 million a week TRUE FALSE DON’T KNOW
  16. 16. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 16 June 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

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