O slideshow foi denunciado.
Utilizamos seu perfil e dados de atividades no LinkedIn para personalizar e exibir anúncios mais relevantes. Altere suas preferências de anúncios quando desejar.

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor May 2018

454 visualizações

Publicada em

Most Britons are not very confident that Theresa May will get a good deal for Britain from the Brexit negotiations, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. A third (34%) say they are confident when asked if Prime Minister will get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with other European Union leaders while nearly two-thirds (63%) are not. This shows a slight drop from March when 37% said they were confident and 59% were not confident, and down from 44% with confidence in her in March 2017.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
  • Seja o primeiro a comentar

  • Seja a primeira pessoa a gostar disto

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor May 2018

  1. 1. Document Name Here | May 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORIPOLITICAL MONITOR May 2018
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 18th – 22nd May 2018; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 756. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% Voting Intention ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = 0 40% 40% 7% 2% 5% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN 40% 39% 9% 3% 4% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN
  4. 4. 4Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election 2015 General Election CONSERVATIVE LABOUR 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18 Apr18 May18 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16)
  5. 5. 5Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 2015 General Election Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) 2015 General Election 2017 General Election HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – May ‘18 2005 General Election 2010 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
  6. 6. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 6 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ 18th – 22nd May 2018. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 33% 60% 7% 37% 56% 7% 32% 56% 12% Jeremy Corbyn The Government -1% swing from April 2018 +1.5% swing from April 2018 +1% swing from April 2018 +3% swing from April 2018 -27 Net -24 Net -5 Net -27 Net SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 32% SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 56% DISSATISFIED 56% DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 60% 28% 33% 39% Vince Cable
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – May 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18 Apr18 May18 MAY CORBYN CABLE 37% 32% 28% 2017 GE2016 EU Ref % satisfied
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2018) MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone May Number of months after becoming Prime Minister
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2018) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Hague (97-01) Duncan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10) Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92) Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94) Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader Netsatisfaction Corbyn
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ 18th – 22nd May 2018. Theresa May (satisfaction) 37% 56% 7% May 2018 August 2016 – May 2018 SATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 56% DON’T KNOW 7% Net = -19 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 365 Conservative supporters 1818th – 22nd May 2018. Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters) 70% 27% 3% May 2018 SATISFIED 70% DISSATISFIED 27% DON’T KNOW 3% Net = +43 August 2016 – May 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public 32% 56% 12% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 SATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 56% DON’T KNOW 12% Net = -24 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,015 British adults 18+ 18th – 22nd May 2018. Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) May 2018 September 2015 – May 2018 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  14. 14. 14Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public 60% 30% 9% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 SATISFIED 60% DISSATISFIED 30% DON’T KNOW 9% Net = +30 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 307 Labour supporters 18+ 18th – 22nd May 2018. Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) May 2018 September 2015 – May 2018 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public 28% 33% 39% SATISFIED 28% DISSATISFIED 33% DON’T KNOW 39% Net = -5 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Vince Cable (satisfaction) May 2018 Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ 18th – 22nd May 2018. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 September 2017 – May 2018 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  16. 16. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  17. 17. 17Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public 23% 27% 46% 5% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 IMPROVE 23% STAY THE SAME 27% GET WORSE 46% DON’T KNOW 5% EOI = -23 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ 18th – 22nd May 2018. Economic Optimism Index May 2018
  18. 18. 18Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2018 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1998 Oct1998 Jul1999 Apr2000 Jan2001 Oct2001 Jul2002 Apr2003 Jan2004 Oct2004 Jul2005 Apr2006 Jan2007 Oct2007 Jul2008 Apr2009 Jan2010 Oct2010 Jul2011 Apr2012 Jan2013 Oct2013 Jul2014 Apr2015 Jan2016 Oct2016 Jul2017 Apr2018 -23
  19. 19. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 19 Brexit
  20. 20. 20Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS? Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain 5% 6% 5% 6% 11% 29% 31% 30% 30% 33% 3 4 4 3 5 33% 28% 31% 31% 28% 30% 31% 29% 29% 23% May 2018 March 2018 October 2017 July 2017 March 2017 VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor c. 1,000 British adults 18+
  21. 21. 21Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS? Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 44% 36% 35% 37% 34% 51% 60% 60% 59% 63% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Mar-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 May-18 c. 1,000 British adults 18+ % Not confident Confident
  22. 22. 22Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU VOTED IN THE EU REFERENDUM, DO YOU BELIEVE BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION IS WORKING OUT BETTER OR WORSE, OR ABOUT THE SAME AS YOU EXPECTED? Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 18th – 22nd May 2018. How Brexit is meeting expectations Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 9% 48% 39% 4% BETTER ABOUT THE SAME AS EXPECTED WORSE DON’T KNOW
  23. 23. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 23 Immigration
  24. 24. 24Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public HOW MUCH, IF AT ALL, DO YOU TRUST ………. TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS FOR BRITAIN ON IMMIGRATION? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 8% 10% 7% 8% 28% 47% 26% 23% 31% 21% 20% 26% 31% 17% 40% 38% 2% 6% 6% 4% Theresa May (May 18) Theresa May (Sep 16) Jeremy Corbyn (May 18) Jeremy Corbyn (Sept 16) A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don’t knowc. 1,000 British adults 18+ on immigration Trust in May/Corbyn to make the right decisions for Britain
  25. 25. 25Political Monitor | May 2018| Final | Public SOME EMPLOYERS SAY THEY NEED TO RECRUIT MORE SKILLED PROFESSIONALS FROM OUTSIDE OF THE EU TO FILL EMPTY POSTS. THE GOVERNMENT SAYS IT HAS TO CAP THE NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS, INCLUDING DOCTORS AND OTHER SKILLED WORKERS. FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF SKILLED WORKERS WHO HAVE RECENTLY HAD VISA APPLICATIONS REFUSED, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT POLICY SHOULD BE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 37% 27% 27% 21% 27% 22% 21% 20% 19% 28% 30% 30% 9% 13% 11% 16% 3% 4% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 7% Doctors Engineers Teachers Computer and technology experts Immigration caps for skilled workers Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 18th – 22nd May 2018. THERE SHOULD BE NO CAP ON THE NUMBERS AT ALL THE CAP SHOULD BE INCREASED SO MORE VISAS ARE ISSUED THE CAP SHOULD REMAIN AT THE PRESENT LEVEL THE CAP SHOULD BE REDUCED SO THAT FEWER VISAS ARE ISSUED NO VISAS SHOULD BE ISSUED TO THIS GROUP AT ALL DON’T KNOW
  26. 26. Document Name Here | May 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 26 Ipsos MORI May 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR

×