Ipsos MORI New Year Predictions 2019
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Ipsos MORI’s 2019 predictions poll finds that Britons do not expect the political landscape to settle down, with 72% of UK adults saying they think a general election is likely in 2019. The poll, among UK adults aged 16-75, also found that 75% expect the UK to leave the EU this year, but 6 in 10 (58%, rising to 72% of leave voters) think it likely that other countries may follow suit by holding a vote on leaving the EU. Sadly, it seems that whatever this year brings, people think a more harmonious Britain is unlikely, with 68% of us saying society will not be less divided by Brexit in 2019. Remain voters are particularly pessimistic: only 17% of remain voters expect divisions to heal, compared with 29% of Leave voters. Economic concerns also play a part in Britons’ predictions for 2019. Six in ten (57%) think that the pound will drop below the value of the euro. There is a clear division between these beliefs by opinions on Brexit: 73% of remain voters think the pound will fall below the euro, vs. 46% Leave voters. Seven in ten (73%) think that one of Britain’s top 100 companies will move its HQ out of Britain because of Brexit (88% of remainers and 63% of leave voters). Whilst 41% expect house prices to fall. People also expect two themes from 2018 to continue in 2019. The British predict the fallout from #metoo to continue, with 62% saying it is likely that the head of one of Britain’s top 100 companies will have to resign because of sexual misconduct. And after the 2018 heatwave, environmental concerns haven’t gone away: half of us (52%) think that we will see the hottest summer on record in 2019. On a lighter note… The public still expect to see the Queen on the throne – less than 1 in 5 (17%) think it is likely that she will abdicate in 2019. 64% of us expect Duke and Duchess of Sussex’s first child to be a girl. When it comes to this year’s Rugby World Cup just 30% of the English, and 17% of Scots think it is likely their team will raise the trophy, but the Welsh are more confident with 55% saying it’s likely their team will win. In music, the Spice Girls announced a reunion tour for 2019 and despite the announcement that Victoria Beckham will not be joining the tour, a quarter of Britons still believe she will take part.
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Ipsos MORI New Year Predictions 2019
- 1. © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public Ipsos MORI Predictions New Year
- 2. Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 2 October 2018 Politics Predictions 2019
- 3. 3Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 5% 17% 22% 31% 19% 41% 50% 44% 36% 27% 19% 13% 32% 8% 4% 4% Source: Ipsos MORI Base 2263 UK adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 Predictions 2019 Politics VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY UNLIKELY VERY UNLIKELY The UK will leave the European Union There will be a General Election Another country will decide to hold a vote on leaving the EU Society will become less divided over Brexit
- 4. 4Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 5% 19% 36% 32% 8% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 Society will become less FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 24% 68% VERY UNLIKELY divided over Brexit Likelihood by key demographic groups: REMAIN/LEAVE SOCIAL GRADE PARTY SUPPORT 30% 21% 58% 75% DE AB 25% 28% 71% 66% Lab Cons 30% 17% 64% 79% Leave Remain
- 5. 5Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 31% 44% 13% 4% 8% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 The UK will leave the FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 75% 17% VERY UNLIKELY European Union Likelihood by key demographic groups: REMAIN/LEAVE AGE PARTY SUPPORT 80% 73% 13% 17% 55-75 16-24 73% 83% 19% 13% Lab Cons 82% 72% 13% 20% Leave Remain
- 6. 6Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 17% 41% 27% 8% 7% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 Another country will FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 58% 35% VERY UNLIKELY decide to hold a vote on Likelihood by key demographic groups: REMAIN/LEAVE AGE PARTY SUPPORT 69% 52% 26% 39% 55-75 16-24 55% 71% 40% 26% Lab Cons 72% 50% 23% 44% Leave Remain leaving the EU
- 7. 7Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 22% 50% 19% 4% 6% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 There will be a FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 72% 23% VERY UNLIKELY General Election Likelihood by key demographic groups: REMAIN/LEAVE GENDER PARTY SUPPORT 71% 72% 25% 21% Men Women 80% 64% 18% 31% Lab Cons 69% 75% 27% 21% Leave Remain
- 8. Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 8 Economy Predictions 2019
- 9. 9Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Base 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 Predictions 2019 Economy VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY UNLIKELY VERY UNLIKELY One of Britain’s biggest 100 companies will move its headquarters out of the UK because of Brexit One pound will be worth less than one euro Average house prices will fall in your area 11% 18% 27% 30% 39% 46% 36% 24% 15% 15% 9% 4%
- 10. 10Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 18% 39% 24% 9% 8% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 One pound will be worth FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 57% 33% VERY UNLIKELY less than one euro Likelihood by key demographic groups: REMAIN/LEAVE GENDER PARTY SUPPORT 53% 63% 42% 26% Men Women 67% 45% 28% 48% Lab Cons 46% 73% 46% 22% Leave Remain
- 11. 11Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 27% 46% 15% 4% 7% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 One of Britain’s biggest FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 73% 19% VERY UNLIKELY 100 companies will move its Likelihood by key demographic groups: REMAIN/LEAVE SOCIAL GRADE PARTY SUPPORT 68% 78% 20% 18% DE AB 81% 70% 16% 24% Lab Cons 63% 87% 28% 8% Leave Remain HQ out of the UK because of Brexit
- 12. 12Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 11% 30% 36% 15% 8% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 Average house prices FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 41% 51% VERY UNLIKELY will fall in your area Likelihood by key demographic groups: PARTY SUPPORT AGE 45% 36% 49% 56% Lab Cons 40% 42% 43% 43% 37% 52% 49% 48% 50% 57% 55-75 45-54 35-44 25-34 16-24
- 13. Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 13 Culture and society Predictions 2019
- 14. 14Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Base 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 Predictions 2019 Culture and Society VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY UNLIKELY VERY UNLIKELY Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s first child will be a girl The head of one of Britain’s biggest 100 companies will be forced to resign because of sexual misconduct Victoria Beckham will join the Spice Girls on their reunion tour 4% 4% 9% 16% 9% 13% 19% 43% 46% 55% 33% 34% 30% 21% 12% 44% 31% 7% 5% 3% The Queen will abdicate the throne 2019 will have the hottest summer on record
- 15. 15Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 4% 13% 33% 44% 7% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 The Queen will abdicate FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 17% 77% VERY UNLIKELY the throne Likelihood by key demographic groups: SOCIAL GRADE REMAIN/LEAVE 18% 14% 77% 80% Leave Remain 21% 17% 16% 14% 73% 72% 79% 82% DE C2 C1 AB
- 16. 16Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 9% 55% 12% 3% 22% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 Prince Harry’s and Meghan FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 64% 15% VERY UNLIKELY Markle’s first Likelihood by key demographic groups: CHILDREN IN HOUSEHOLD GENDER child will be a girl 62% 66% 16% 14% Men Women 61% 68% 15% 14% No children At least one child
- 17. 17Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 16% 46% 21% 5% 12% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 The head of one of Britain’s FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 62% 26% VERY UNLIKELY biggest 100 companies will be Likelihood by key demographic groups: GENDER 63% 61% 28% 25% Men Women forced to resign because of sexual misconduct 68% 64% 55% 60% 58% 21% 25% 30% 28% 30% 55-75 45-54 35-44 25-34 16-24 AGE
- 18. 18Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 4% 19% 34% 31% 11% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 Victoria Bechha m Beckham will FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 23% 65% VERY UNLIKELY join the Spice Likelihood by key demographic groups: GENDER Girls on their reunion tour 18% 22% 23% 26% 32% 72% 66% 65% 64% 53% 55-75 45-54 35-44 25-34 16-24 25% 21% 62% 69% Men Women AGE
- 19. 19Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 9% 43% 30% 7% 11% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 2019 will have FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 52% 37% VERY UNLIKELY the hottest Likelihood by key demographic groups: AGE summer on record 46% 58% 43% 32% 55-75 16-24 REGION 50% 59% 38% 31% North England London REMAIN/LEAVE 49% 56% 42% 34% Leave Remain
- 20. 20Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Base 107 Welsh, 179 Scottish, 1913 English, adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 Predictions 2019 The Rugby World Cup VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY UNLIKELY VERY UNLIKELY Wales will win the Rugby World Cup 3% 5% 18% 14% 24% 36% 38% 41% 28% 34% 12% 8% England will win the Rugby World Cup Scotland will win the Rugby World Cup
- 21. 21Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 5% 24% 41% 12% 17% Source: Ipsos MORI VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY DON’T KNOWBase 1913 English adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018 England will win the FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN… FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY LIKELY NET 29% 53% VERY UNLIKELY Rugby World GENDER Cup PARTY SUPPORT Likelihood by key demographic groups: 33% 27% 53% 53% Men Women 26% 35% 59% 51% Lab Cons 31% 24% 54% 59% Leave Remain REMAIN/LEAVE
- 22. © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 22Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public For more information… Gideon Skinner Gideon.Skinner@Ipsos.com