These slides were presented by Ben Page, CEO, Ipsos MORI and Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI at our breakfast briefing on 10th April 2015. As well as Ben and Gideon, the panel featured Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Adviser at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) and Joe Murphy, Political Editor at The Evening Standard.

1. Ipsos MORI’s
General Election
Briefing

2. BEN PAGE, CEO IPSOS MORI
GIDEON SKINNER, HEAD OF POLITICAL
RESEARCH AT IPSOS MORI
JOE MURPHY, POLITICAL EDITOR AT
THE EVENING STANDARD
VICKY PRYCE, CHIEF ECONOMIC
ADVISER AT THE CENTRE FOR
ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS
RESEARCH
Q&A

3. Ben Page, CEO Ipsos MORI
@benatipsosmori

4. THE VIEWS OF THE NEXT GENERATION
OF (HOPEFUL) MPS

5. How will they judge you?
HOW IMPORTANT ARE EACH OF THE FOLLOWING FACTORS WHEN YOU JUDGE A COMPANY OR
ORGANISATION?
Base: All PPCS (98), Conservative PPCs (26), Labour PPCs (29), Liberal Democrat PPCs (20) asked.
3 February – 13 March 2015
Source: Ipsos MORI PPC Survey 2015
83
66
60
44
38
36
31
31
27
26
22
19
4
Acts with honesty and integrity
Quality of products and services
Treatment of employees
Quality of management
Effectively delivers projects within budget
Values of the organisation
Effectively delivers projects on time
Social responsibility
Approach to Training and Development
Contribution to UK economy
Public reputation
Financial performance
Communication with MPs
Con. Lab. Lib Dem.
73 83 90
65 59 80
38 79 40
58 31 35
46 31 25
23 41 30
42 34 10
19 17 30
23 24 30
27 28 15
27 17 10
35 10 10
12 0 0
% saying “Extremely important”

6. …and how do current MPs judge you?
HOW IMPORTANT ARE EACH OF THE FOLLOWING FACTORS WHEN YOU JUDGE A COMPANY OR
ORGANISATION?
Base: All MPs (107), Conservative MPs (47), Labour MPs (47) asked.
Winter 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI MPs Survey Winter 2014
% saying “Extremely important”
69
57
46
39
35
30
27
23
21
20
17
15
2
Acts with honesty and integrity
Quality of products and services
Treatment of employees
Quality of management
Effectively delivers projects within budget
Effectively delivers projects on time
Values of the organisation
Financial performance
Contribution to UK economy
Social responsibility
Approach to Training and Development
Public reputation
Communication with MPs
Con. Lab.
68 63
51 59
26 62
37 40
32 35
28 27
16 39
26 20
16 25
7 26
9 20
11 21
4 0

7. What do they think of your sector?
HOW FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE ARE YOUR OVERALL OPINIONS AND IMPRESSIONS OF
THESE INDUSTRIES?
Base: All PPCS (98), Conservative PPCs (26), Labour PPCs (29), Liberal Democrat PPCs (20) asked.
3 February – 13 March 2015
Source: Ipsos MORI PPC Survey 2015
20
8
9
16
12
4
6
12
9
1
3
8
3
1
53
56
53
40
36
40
37
28
30
34
30
21
24
15
1
5
8
9
19
18
17
12
12
18
28
27
24
34
2
2
1
5
2
2
17
3
7
7
14
12
18
Automotive
Airline
Telecoms
Food and drink
Rail
Supermarkets
Pensions
Nuclear energy
Pharmaceutical
Insurance
Energy
Newspapers
Financial services
Banking
% Total favourable
Con. Lab. Lib Dem.
84 83 70
85 55 50
69 66 45
54 55 47
62 31 40
58 59 35
46 45 45
62 38 25
58 38 20
35 34 35
38 28 20
42 17 20
54 7 25
46 3 5
% very favourable % mainly favourable % mainly unfavourable % very unfavourable

8. …and what do current MPs think of your sector?
HOW FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE ARE YOUR OVERALL OPINIONS AND IMPRESSIONS OF
THESE INDUSTRIES?
Base: All MPs (107), Conservative MPs (47), Labour MPs (47) asked.
Winter 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI MPs Survey Winter 2014
29
24
17
10
14
11
5
2
3
5
1
3
58
56
53
59
51
38
30
26
24
21
25
12
13
2
2
9
4
4
31
25
19
38
27
12
41
42
2
1
1
6
3
7
7
1
19
8
Manufacturing
Automotive
Pharmaceutical
Retail
Construction
Rail
Energy
Insurance
Financial Services
Media
Mining
Banking
PR & Lobbying
% Total favourable
Con. Lab.
86 86
88 77
82 58
79 57
63 64
46 44
52 18
42 15
44 10
28 24
28 22
28 0
21 4
% very favourable % mainly favourable % mainly unfavourable % very unfavourable

9. What do they think the issues are?
WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING BRITAIN TODAY?
(UNPROMPTED, %)
Base: All PPCS (98), Conservative PPCs (26), Labour PPCs (29), Liberal Democrat PPCs (20) asked.
3 February – 13 March 2015
Source: Ipsos MORI PPC Survey 2015
85
54
31
27
0
15
0
0
4
35
19
62
62
14
14
24
14
21
3
10
0
0
85
65
25
35
10
5
25
5
15
5
5
45
9
18
0
45
0
0
64
0
9
9
Economy
NHS / health
Jobs / employment
Education
Inequality
Immigration / migration
Housing
Austerity / cuts
Environment / climate
Government spending / deficit
International ties / Relationship with EU
Conservative PPCs Labour PPCs Lib Dem PPCs SNP PPCs

10. What do they think are the problems facing business?
WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS FACING BRITISH BUSINESS AND
INDUSTRY TODAY? (UNPROMPTED, %)
Base: All PPCS (98), Conservative PPCs (26), Labour PPCs (29), Liberal Democrat PPCs (20) asked.
3 February – 13 March 2015
Source: Ipsos MORI PPC Survey 2015
54
12
42
23
42
12
45
34
3
17
3
28
50
30
10
10
5
20
9
18
9
18
27
0
Skills shortage
Europe
Over-regulation /
bureaucracy
General economic
conditions
Taxation/Inheritance
tax
Access to Finance
Conservative PPCs Labour PPCs Lib Dem PPCs SNP PPCs

11. What about Lobbyists?
4
43
27
17
9
47%
of MPs are favourable to
lobbying
Are you generally favourable or
unfavourable towards lobbying
as it currently operates?
Base: All MPs (72), Summer 2014. All General Public (1025), March 2015
5
20
23
26
27
25%
of general public are
favourable to lobbying
Are you generally favourable or
unfavourable towards lobbying
as it currently operates?
General public
(%)
3 4
59
35
3%
of MPs think the public
are favourable to
lobbying
Do you feel the public perceptions
of lobbying are generally
favourable or unfavourable?
MPs (%)MPs (%)

12. The public want more transparency
Base: All General Public (1025), March 2015. All MPs (72), Summer 2014
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?
47
72
74
31
9
10
Lobbying is useful in
helping MPs
understand issues
facing businesses
Companies are not
transparent enough
about their lobbying
activities
MPs are not
transparent enough
about their lobbying
activities
% agree % disagree
73% 10%
47% 25%
n/a n/a
Agree Disagree
MPs

13. Gideon Skinner,
Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com

14. #GE2015
THE UNCERTAINTY OF POLITICS

15. TOO CLOSE TO CALL

16. The main parties are still neck and neck
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through February 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
16HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
34
33
13
6
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Feb03
Aug03
Feb04
Aug04
Feb05
Aug05
Feb06
Aug06
Feb07
Aug07
Feb08
Aug08
Feb09
Aug09
Feb10
Aug10
Feb11
Aug11
Feb12
Aug12
Feb13
Aug13
Feb14
Aug14
Feb15

17. This time, history doesn’t help
What are the precedents?
• The last time a government increased its vote share after
more than two years in office - 1955
• The last time an opposition party was elected with an
overall majority after just a single parliament out of office –
1931
• Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since
1832
17THE MOST UNPREDICTABLE ELECTION IN LIVING MEMORY?

19. WE’VE FOUND SOMEONE ELSE

20. The last 12 months have seen the ‘challenger’ parties set
their own records…..
UKIPhave taken third place and reached a record
high. Those thinking they are a wasted vote have fallen from
57% to 41%.
The SNP have taken a record lead over Labour
in Westminster voting intentions in Scotland.
The Greens have also recorded their best
ever performance, matching the LibDems and attracting
LibDem switchers who were going to Labour.

21. Indyref accelerated – but didn’t start – Labour’s
decline in Scotland
46%
43%
40% 42%
39%
34%
32%
29%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2010 2011
LabourshareofVote
Date of Election
UK GENERAL ELECTION HOLYROOD ELECTION

22. WE’RE ALL POLYAMOROUS NOW

23. It’s not about Conservative-Labour swing any more
Data shows 2010 recalled past vote and current voting intentions of 3,045 British adults aged 18+ interviewed January-March 2015.
Current voting intentions are based only on those who say they are absolutely certain to vote, while those who were unable or refused
to say how they voted in 2010 are not shown.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

24. WE CAN’T MAKE UP OUR MINDS

25. Fewer voters have decided…
Base: 830 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8th -10th February 2015
25
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR … PARTY, OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY
CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
March
2015
81%
62%
54%
56%
18%
35%
45%
41%
April
2010
April
2005
March
1992
Definitely
decided
May change
mind
Don’t
know

26. A generational shift in party loyalty…
All data points represent > 200 responses
26DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY?
Source: British Social Attitudes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pre war
Baby
boomers
Gen X
Gen Y

27. We don’t want another coalition – but think we’ll get
one
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 13th -15th December 2014
27
THINKING ABOUT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE A GOOD OR A BAD THING
FOR THE COUNTRY IF NO PARTY ACHIEVES AN OVERALL MAJORITY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Want one? Will get one?
65%
28%
7%
32%
63%
5%
GOOD THING/LIKELY BAD THING/UNLIKELY DON’T KNOW
AND REGARDLESS OF YOUR PERSONAL VIEWS OF COALITIONS HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY DO YOU THINK
IT IS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER COALITION GOVERNMENT AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION?

28. Although we’re prepared to get in bed with someone
else if we have to…
28YOU SAID THAT YOU WOULD VOTE FOR/BE INCLINED TO SUPPORT THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP IF
THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW. SUPPOSE THAT NO PARTY HAS AN OVERALL MAJORITY AFTER THE ELECTION.
HOW STRONGLY WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP FORMING A
COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH …XXX IF THEY HAD ENOUGH SEATS BETWEEN THEM FOR A MAJORITY?
57
17
36
22
25
26
20
31
68
48
64
58
62
65
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 267 Conservative, 285 Labour and 66 Liberal Democrat supporters*, all British adults 18+, 8th -10th February 2015.
*Small base sizes indicative only
Conservative
supporters
Labour supporters
Liberal Democrat
supporters
...UKIP
...Liberal Democrats
...Liberal Democrats
…Green Party
% Oppose % SupportForm a coalition with…
…Conservatives
…Labour
…SNP

29. Although we’re prepared to get in bed with someone
else if we have to…
29YOU SAID THAT YOU WOULD VOTE FOR/BE INCLINED TO SUPPORT THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP IF
THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW. SUPPOSE THAT NO PARTY HAS AN OVERALL MAJORITY AFTER THE ELECTION.
HOW STRONGLY WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE CONSERVATIVES/LABOUR/LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/UKIP FORMING A
COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH …XXX IF THEY HAD ENOUGH SEATS BETWEEN THEM FOR A MAJORITY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 267 Conservative, 285 Labour and 66 Liberal Democrat supporters*, all British adults 18+, 8th -10th February 2015.
*Small base sizes indicative only
% Oppose % SupportForm a coalition with…
29
57
49
15
76
35
63
31
34
73
10
49
UKIP supporters
Green Party supporters
Scottish National Party
supporters
...Conservatives
...Labour
... Conservatives
…Labour
…Conservatives
…Labour

30. NO PARTY OWNS THE AGENDA

31. Which issues will be very important when voters cast
their ballots? Top four issues
31
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH, IF ANY ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL
BE VERY IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH PARTY TO VOTE FOR?
23%
30%
31%
29%
20%
27%
33%
46%
25%
22%
32%
45%
25%
25%
31%
38%
Education/schools
Asylum and immigration
Managing the economy/economic situation
Healthcare/NHS/hospitals
September 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015
Base: 848 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8th -11th March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

32. Labour doesn’t inspire confidence on the economy
32
AND DO YOU THINK THAT A LABOUR GOVERNMENT WITH ED MILIBAND AS PRIME MINISTER AND ED BALLS AS CHANCELLOR OF THE
EXCHEQUER WOULD DO A BETTER OR A WORSE JOB, OR ABOUT THE SAME, THAN THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT HAS DONE AT MANAGING THE
ECONOMY?
26%
19%
31%
37%
38%
38%
5%
6%
Better job Worse job About the same Don't know
March 2015
March 2013
Base: 1,025 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

33. But the Conservatives aren’t trusted on the NHS
33
IF A LABOUR/CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT IS ELECTED AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION DO
YOU THINK IT WILL…?
48%
20%
32%
41%
9%
31%
10%
7%
Increase NHS spending Keep spending the same
Reduce NHS spending Don't know
Conservative
Labour
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

34. And neither are trusted on immigration……
67% 68%
72%
66% 67%
64%
62%
64%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Dissatisfied
Base: C 1,000 British adults each month
OVERALL, HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS
DEALING WITH IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM?
OVERALL, HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS
DEALING WITH IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM?
Source: Ipsos MORI

35. AND THEIR PARTIES

36. 36

37. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2015)
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
37HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01)
Netsatisfaction
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

38. But we’ve gone from the most presidential election to
the least
Base: 830 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8th -11th February 2015
38I WANT YOU TO THINK ABOUT WHAT IT IS THAT MOST ATTRACTED YOU TO …. PARTY. SOME PEOPLE ARE ATTRACTED MAINLY BY THE
POLICIES OF THE PARTY, SOME BY THE LEADERS OF THE PARTY AND SOME BECAUSE THEY IDENTIFY WITH THE PARTY AS A WHOLE.
IF YOU HAD A TOTAL OF TEN POINTS TO ALLOCATE ACCORDING TO HOW IMPORTANT EACH OF THESE WAS TO YOU, HOW MANY WOULD
YOU ALLOCATE TO THE LEADERS OF THE PARTY YOU INTEND VOTING FOR, HOW MANY TO ITS POLICIES, AND HOW MANY TO THE PARTY AS A
WHOLE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
4.4 4.4
4.1 4.2
4.7
4 3.8
4.1 4.3
2.1 2
2.3 2.4
2.1 2.1 2.2
3.3 3.2
3.5
3.2
3.4
3.2
3
3.9 3.8
2.6 2.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Leaders
Parties
Policies

39. And Labour still have the strongest ‘brand’
UKIP
Conservatives
Liberal Democrats
Labour
Like leader not party Dislike leader and party Like party not leader Like leader and party
40%
48%
60%
64%
52%
40%
33%
25%
Base: 1,025 British adults aged 18+, 8-11 March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF … LEADER AND … PARTY? 39

40. ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IT?

41. Which of these are you?
Base: 768 adults aged 18-75, from Election Uncut Community, 27/03/15 to 29/03/15
Removed common English words, otherwise image shows unedited verbatims. Data is qualitative and unweighted
41
PLEASE THINK OF THE THREE WORDS OR PHRASES THAT BEST DESCRIBE HOW YOU FEEL ABOUT THE
UPCOMING ELECTION CAMPAIGN?
Source: Ipsos MORI/BBC Election Uncut Community

42. Joe Murphy,
Political Editor at the Evening Standard
@joemurphylondon

43. Vicky Pryce,
Chief EconomicAdviser at the Centre for
Economic and Business Research
vicky.pryce@cebr.com

44. Thank you
Q&A