Our final poll for the EU Referendum reveals that 52% of people say they will vote to Remain in the European Union while 48% say they will vote to Leave. Fieldwork conducted on 21-22 June 2016.

1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 1
Final referendum poll

2. 2Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
52%
48%
ALL REGISTERED TO VOTE AND FILTERED BY
LIKELY TURNOUT
QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF
THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION –
SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 21st – 22nd June 2016 / All registered and 9-10 certain to vote and always/usually/depends vote in General Elections , and
for whom outcome is very/fairly important (1,194)
European Referendum predicted outcome
REMAIN
LEAVE
QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?

3. 3Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
52%
48%
ALL REGISTERED TO VOTE AND FILTERED BY
LIKELY TURNOUT
QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF
THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION –
SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 21st – 22nd June 2016 / All registered and 9-10 certain to vote and always/usually/depends vote in General Elections , and
for whom outcome is very/fairly important (1,194)
European Referendum predicted outcome
REMAIN
LEAVE
QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?
74% probability of Remain vote
26% probability of Leave vote
Result probability based on model from
Number Cruncher Politics

4. 4Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS
THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 1,443 British adults 18+, 21th – 22nd June 2016
Have the EU referendum voters decided yet?
57% 58%
63% 64%
69%
73%
79%
87%
40% 39% 35% 33%
28% 25%
20%
12%
3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct
2015
Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
Apr
2016
May
2016
Jun
2016
June
PP
2016
DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

5. 5Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
THINKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERSHIP, WHICH OF THE
FOLLOWING OUTCOMES DO YOU THINK IS MOST LIKELY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,592 British adults 18+, 21st – 22nd June 2016
Likely outcome?
REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 (1) Jun-16 (2)

6. 6Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
11
7
5
6
7
8
12
28
33
8
7
5
10
11
11
16
31
32
Don’t know
Nothing/none
The ability to travel in the European Union
Britain’s ability to trade with countries in the European
Union
The cost of EU immigration on Britain’s welfare system
The impact on British jobs
Britain’s ability to make its own laws
The impact on Britain’s economy
The number of immigrants coming into Britain
Late June
Mid-June
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON JUNE 23RD, WHICH,
IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?
AND WHICH OF THESE ISSUES, IF ANY, THAT YOU MENTIONED IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU
DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Issues important to EU voting
Unprompted – top responses only
Base: 1,592 British adults 18+, 21st – 22nd June 2016

7. 7Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
AS YOU MAY KNOW DAVID CAMERON IS CAMPAIGNING FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN WITHIN THE
EUROPEAN UNION. IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, DO YOU THINK THAT
DAVID CAMERON SHOULD RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER OR SHOULD HE CONTINUE BEING THE
PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,592 British adults 18+, 21st – 22nd June 2016
Life after the referendum
44
48
1
8
CONTINUE AS PRIME MINISTER RESIGN
SHOULD STEP DOWN EVEN IF BRITAIN VOTES TO
STAY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION DON’T KNOW
40
45
4
11
March 2016 June 2016

8. 8Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK IT WAS RIGHT OR WRONG FOR DAVID CAMERON TO HOLD A REFERENDUM ON
BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,592 British adults 18+, 21st – 22nd June 2016
Was it right to call the Referendum?
RIGHT WRONG DON’T KNOW
66
24
10

9. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 9
Final referendum poll