In the first significant test of public opinion using the Scottish Government’s proposed referendum question, four in ten Scots agree that Scotland should be an independent country.

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
January 2012
31.1.12

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Technical details brand logo
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2
• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,005 respondents
conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 27th January – 29th January 2012
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS 2007-2008 data; and
public-private sector employment using Scottish
Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series
data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,005) unless
otherwise stated
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Half of Scots oppose independence, while around two in five brand logo
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support independence 3
Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
All All who are certain to vote
Undecided Undecided
13% Yes 11% Yes
37% 39%
50%
50%
No No
Base: All (1,005); All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
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Those who oppose independence are more likely to have brand logo
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made their mind up 4
Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Support independence Oppose independence
May change Definitely May change Definitely
mind decided mind decided
18%
31%
69%
82%
Base: All who would vote Yes (374); All who would vote No (499). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012
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Almost half of Scots think the referendum should be held brand logo
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within the next 18 months 5
When do you think the referendum should be held?
Support independence
All Oppose independence
Within the next 18
31%
months i.e. by
2% 5% Summer 2013 63%
9% Within next the 18 months
After Summer 2013
but before Autumn
16%
i.e. by Summer 2013 2014 11%
After summer 2013 but
before Autumn 2014 Autumn 2014
39%
Autumn 2014 8%
47%
After Autumn 2014 8%
22% After Autumn 2014
10%
Never/shouldn't be held
Never/shouldn't be 0%
held 4%
Don't know
5%
Don't know
4%
15%
0% 25% 50% 75%
Base: All (1,005); All who support independence (374); All who oppose independence (499). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults
18+, 27-29 January 2012
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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 @IpsosMORIScot 31.1.12
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
© Ipsos MORI This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.