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Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015

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What lies ahead for the new Labour leader, presented at "Beyond the Bubble" event at Labour Party Conference 2015.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Beyond the Bubble - Labour Conference 2015

  1. 1. Ipsos MORI at Labour 2015 Beyond the bubble What lies ahead for the new Labour leader?
  2. 2. Labour 2015 HOPE AND EXPERIENCE @GideonSkinner gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
  3. 3. © Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential In GE2015, Labour only had a clear lead over the Conservatives among: 18-34s Social class DE Private and social renters BME voters Meanwhile Labour actually lost ground to the Conservatives among: Over 65s ABC1s
  4. 4. Labour and LibDems lost 2010 voters across the political spectrum: Conservatives did best at retaining, and had one main threat in UKIP Base: 943 2010 Conservative voters / 798 2010 Labour voters/488 2010 LibDem voters 10th April -6th May 2015, weighted to final election result 4ESTIMATED VOTING BEHAVIOUR BY 2010 PAST VOTE Source: Ipsos MORI General election aggregate analysis 13% 82% 2%2% *% *% 5% 2010 Conservative voters 2010 Labour voters 2015 VOTING BEHAVIOUR CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM SNP GREEN OTHER 8% 6% 72% 5% 5% 5% 1% 2010 LibDem voters 20% 7% 35% 24% 2% 11% 1%
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. 36% 23% 6% 3% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jan00 Apr00 Jul00 Oct00 Jan01 Apr01 Jul01 Oct01 Jan02 Apr02 Jul02 Oct02 Jan03 Apr03 Jul03 Oct03 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Labour’s lead on the NHS wasn’t enough…. 6 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HEALTHCARE THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
  7. 7. 39% 53% 7% Will this government’s policies will improve Britain's ECONOMY in the long-term?
  8. 8. Which means Labour has some big challenges ahead…. Austerity has been taken on board by the public – any big policy idea is faced with two immediate questions: 1) How much is this going to cost? 2) Where is the money going to come from? So while the Conservatives may not be loved (and will face problems of their own – Europe?) the onus is on Labour to regain voters’ trust “I’ve got a mortgage and two young kids and I feel secure right now…if Labour come in would they rock the boat?”
  9. 9. HOPE?
  10. 10. None of the other candidates were a sliver bullet 10 26% 22% 37% 43% 41% 44% 38% 39% 19% 34% 25% 19% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jeremy Corbyn Liz Kendall Yvette Cooper Andy Burnham Agree Neither/ dk Disagree Base: 299 Labour supporters 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
  11. 11. The old style of politics is losing younger generations All data points represent > 200 responses 11DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY? Source: British Social Attitudes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Pre war Baby boomers Gen X Gen Y
  12. 12. © Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential 251,417 50,000+
  13. 13. 13 At first glance Jeremy Corbyn’s debut on the Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings does not bode well 13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER/ LEADER OF XX PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 21 13 22 12 16 13 15 17 17 20 22 36 23 33 37 30 34 12 15 26 31 36 41 33 Foot - Nov. '80 Kinnock - Oct '83 Major - Dec '90 Smith - July '92 Blair - Aug '94 Hague - Jun '97 Duncan Smith - Sep '01 Howard - Nov '03 Cameron - Jan '06 Brown - July '07 Miliband - Oct '10 Corbyn - Sep '15 % Dissatisfied % Satisfied Net +% +2 +20 +15 +18 +18 -1 0 +9 +16 +14 +19 -3 c. 1,000 British adults aged 18+ each month
  14. 14. 14 But satisfaction with the new leader is much higher among the young 14ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th –22ND September 2015 * Net satisfied +% 14 19 4 -4 -11 -28 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
  15. 15. 15 62% 51% 46% 76% 51% 56% 45% 41% 51% 64% 30% 32% 23% 32% 37% 49% 47% 25% 41% 49% 39% 54% Capable leader Good in a crisis Sound judgement Patriotic Understands the problems facing Britain Has a clear vision for Britain More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Understands the problems facing Britain Out of touch with ordinary people More honest than most politicians A different type of politics? Jeremy Corbyn is seen as being more honest than most politicians and less out of touch….. 15I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY CORBYN? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th– 22nd September 2015. CORBYN CAMERON
  16. 16. 16 43% 14% 36% 63% 24% 28% 40% 43% 52% 39% 75% 36% 55% 60% 26% 27% 35% 43% 51% 62% 61% Divided Extreme Out of date Will promise anything to win votes Keeps its promises Has a good team of leaders Fit to govern Looks after the interests of people like me Understands the problems facing Britain Different to the other parties Concerned about people in real need in Britain And leading a party concerned about those in real need – but also as more divided and more extreme 16I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor SEPTEMBER 2015 APRIL 2015 Base: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd September 2015.
  17. 17. The Speech SOME INSTANT REACTION
  18. 18. 18 How did Jeremy do? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Thousands JEREMY CORBYN ADDRESSES 2015 LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCE – TWITTER’S VERDICT Source: Ipsos MORI live analysis Ed Miliband – Labour Party Conference 2014 Autumn Statement 2014 EU Debate 2014 Total Tweet Volume 24 78 76 22 Boo (%) Cheer (%) Ed Miliband – Labour Party Conference 2014 Jeremy Corbyn – Labour Party Conference 2015 Base: 41,146 Tweets up until 15:25, Boo/Cheer classification based on 18,779 Tweets 41k
  19. 19. 19 Twitter likes Twitter best – preaching to the converted? JEREMY CORBYN’S SPEECH – TWITTER’S FIRST VERDICT Source: Ipsos MORI live analysis CHEER BOO 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 14:25 14:30 14:35 14:40 14:45 14:50 14:55 15:00 15:05 15:10 15:15 15:20 15:25 Total tweets: 18,779 Refers to 59% mandate Opposition to Trade Union Bill Labour will oppose austerity Opposition to Trident “In the future social media will be increasingly important” Maya Angelou quote Ben Okri quote Labour committed to rail renationalisation Scotland – “I know you feel we lost our way. I agree with you” Speech end – Keir Hardie quote Equality of esteem for mental health Totaltweets Base: 41,146 Tweets up until 15:25, Boo/Cheer classification based on 18,779 Tweets
  20. 20. 20 A group of ex-Labour voters in Croydon liked his authenticity and difference 20 I liked the way he acknowledged his coverage in the tabloids about the asteroid. You wouldn’t get Cameron making jokes about being a pig shagger. He is one of us. To get to where he is he had to go through a lot. It’s like a new manager coming into work when they started in the post room - better that than a graduate trainee. He’s believable, he’s passionate – it’s the way he was talking about it. He wants to see change. These are his values, what he stands for – listening to people, letting everyone have their own opinion and debating it.
  21. 21. 21 But in the end, it wasn’t strong enough to change their minds on the issues that matter to them, although still early days 21 A social Europe? What is that? Is that the EU? A lot of this went over my head. If they want people to vote, then they need to make it clear what they are talking about. He mentioned everything….he can’t make a difference to everything. He should’ve just picked a few issues What about immigration? This is an issue that’s happening now – we see it every day in the news – it matters!
  22. 22. 22 Reconnecting with Labour’s roots only half the story – lost voters wanted their aspirations spoken to too 22DESIRE FOR CHANGE – A RETURN TO LABOUR’S ‘ROOTS’… BUT SOME ALSO MENTIONED THE NEED TO MIX WTH ASPIRATIONAL MESSAGES “They need a strong leader, to refocus on the same sort of pro-business, aspirational views – but with fairness – that got Blair in” “That’s what Labour used to be for: a fairer distribution of money in the country” “I was brought up working class…and even stuck by them through the Blair years, but I could’ve throttled them this time”
  23. 23. Thank you Q&A

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