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Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

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Ipsos MORI hosted the successful fringe event Beyond the Bubble at the 2014 Conservative Party conference. The event explored how the political parties are doing in our polls, using our long-term trend data, as well as new findings from our monthly Political Monitor and Issues Index.

On the panel were journalist Benedict Brogan, The Telegraph’s Peter Oborne, Chloe Smith MP and think tank Reform’s Andrew Haldenby. Head of Political Research Gideon Skinner presented the Ipsos MORI view. Ben Page chaired the event.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

  1. 1. Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI
  2. 2. The battle to 2015
  3. 3. or “The war of the weak” Joe Murphy, Evening Standard
  4. 4. 1) Weaknesses in the vote
  5. 5. Even in 2010, nine in ten voted for one of the three main parties – now it’s just three in four
  6. 6. 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 33% 7% 34% 15% 2005 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 2010 General Election Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Watch the share – not the lead! How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Lab 2012 average: 41% Lab 2014 average: 35%
  7. 7. 7 70% 13% 3% 2% 12% 2014 Labour vote 2010 Labour 2010 LibDem 2010 Con 2010 UKIP 2010 Other 2010 DNV/too young/etc Labour relying on LibDem switchers, but hardly any Tories Base: 1,300 Labour supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  8. 8. 8 Share of governing party Base: c. 500-1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from new government taking power Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone. Data collected prior to Nov 2002 is based on all expressing an intention to vote, data from Nov 1992 is based on all certain to vote How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? In the past we have seen an electoral cycle effect…. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1987 GE Conservatives: 1979-1997 (6 mth moving average) 1983 GE 1992 GE
  9. 9. 9 Base: c.1,000-3,000 British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 17th September 2014 Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, Populus, ComRes, BMRB, YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Angus Reid, Ashcroft Conservative vote share EOI % +/- But so far the Conservative vote share isn’t moving much either “How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?” “Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next twelve months?” -30 -15 0 15 30 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 +3 32% -3 Proximity to 32% Number of polls % of polls +/-3ppt 599/655 91% +/-2ppt 517/655 79% +/-1ppt 344/655 53%
  10. 10. 10 The system makes it harder for you In 2005, Tony Blair won 36% of the vote and an overall majority of 64 seats In 2010, David Cameron won 37% of the vote and was 20 seats short of a majority If the Conservatives and Labour each had 33.4% of the vote, Labour would win 307 seats and the Conservatives would win 254 seats Labour can win an overall majority with a lead of 2.8 percentage points, the Conservatives need an 11.1 point lead
  11. 11. 11 But that’s not the only reason –support concentrated in the South 38% 23% 16% 16% 7%
  12. 12. 12 The north is very red 28% 45% 10% 13% 4%
  13. 13. 13 Not a “women problem”, but a young women problem Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base Aggregated voting intention of 3,626 British adults 18+ Jan- July 2014 “How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”* *All certain to vote 21 27 36 27 30 36 45 43 34 32 34 31 11 11 11 11 10 8 5 7 12 14 14 18 18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+ Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP Men Women
  14. 14. 14 12% 12% 34% 23% 4% 16% 2014 UKIP vote 2010 Labour 2010 LibDem 2010 Con 2010 UKIP 2010 Other 2010 DNV/too young/etc And the rise of UKIP is making it even harder Base: 441 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  15. 15. 15 UKIP is touching a nerve – will people still see it as a wasted vote? On balance do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 26% 36% 8% 27% 14% 6% 6% 6% 8% 10% 20% 12% 26% 21% 63% 4% 3% 3% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know 34% 51% 14% 75% UKIP is highlighting important issues which other parties aren't taking seriously enough A vote for UKIP in a General election is a wasted vote I would like my local MP to leave his/her party and join UKIP 50% 41% 53% 36% Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 Down from 57% in May
  16. 16. 2) No party owns all the issues
  17. 17. 17 The dilemma: how to cover all the bases? Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?* Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 10% 11% 12% 13% 23% 29% 30% 31% Housing Crime and ASB/ law and order Pensions Defence Care for older/disabled Taxation Unemployment Europe/ EU Foreign policy/affairs Benefits Education/ schools Healthcare/ NHS Asylum and immigration Economy Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 *Showing only answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results
  18. 18. 18 You are increasing your lead on the economy Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 20% 3% 45% 2% 55% among those who think it’s important
  19. 19. 19 UKIP is making the running on immigration Which party do you think has the best policies on asylum/ immigration the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 18% 9% 19% 20% 40% among those who think it’s important
  20. 20. 20 While the NHS is Labour’s strongest card Which party do you think has the best policies on healthcare the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 39% 4% 21% 1% 45% among those who think it’s important
  21. 21. 21 And people in marginals ….. Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Economy/Economic situation Race/Immigration Unemployment NHS/Hospitals Crime/Law & order Education/Schools Pensions/Benefits Inflation/Prices Poverty/Inequality Housing Defence/Foreign Safe Lab seats Marginal seats Safe Con seats
  22. 22. 22 And people in marginals sit in the middle on these issues too Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Economy/Economic situation Race/Immigration Unemployment NHS/Hospitals Crime/Law & order Education/Schools Pensions/Benefits Inflation/Prices Poverty/Inequality Housing Defence/Foreign Safe Lab seats Marginal seats Safe Con seats
  23. 23. 3) Two parties, two image problems
  24. 24. 24 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Labour the most liked party, but Cameron most liked leader Miliband & the Labour Party Cameron & the Conservative Party % % Total like him 31 48 Total do not like him 63 49 Total like his party 50 42 Total do not like his party 44 55 Which of these statements come closest to your view of David Cameron/ Ed Miliband and the Conservative/ Labour party? Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
  25. 25. 25 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low... How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? CAMERON (2005-2010) BLAIR (1994-1997) MILIBAND (2010-2014) HOWARD (2003-2005) Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone Net satisfaction
  26. 26. 26 While Cameron still has the lead on key Prime Ministerial qualities I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… 67% 55% 55% 53% 43% 48% 43% 39% 46% 30% 43% 22% 36% 53% 32% 20% 55% 20% 26% 17% 26% 42% 45% 26% 39% 31% 58% 19% 24% 39% 52% 67% A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Miliband Cameron Clegg Has got a lot of personality Has a clear vision for Britain Farage Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th-9th September 2014 Split sample for Nick Clegg (496) and Nigel Farage (514)
  27. 27. 27 But the party still seen as out of touch – and divided 43% 35% 23% 61% 51% 40% 48% 46% 23% 52% 48% 27% 47% 41% 31% 48% 43% 14% 39% 32% 13% 56% 18% 20% 51% 39% 12% 38% 28% 24% 36% 16% 24% 39% 80% 64% Looks after interests of people like me Out of date Fit to govern Good team of leaders Understands problems facing Britain Different to other parties Labour Conservative LibDem Extreme Keeps its promises UKIP Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Divided I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014. Split sample question for UKIP (514) and the Liberal Democrats (496)
  28. 28. So what does that tell us for 2015?
  29. 29. 29 The most unpredictable election in living memory? What are the precedents? –The last time a government increased its vote share after more than two years in office - 1955 –(It has only happened twice since 1900) –The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931 –Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832 –In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had a narrow poll lead one year out, the other party won.
  30. 30. 30 Who do you want to be? Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead in ratings 2015 ? Opposition Government
  31. 31. 31 Only two previous occasions when opposition has led in vote but PM been ahead in ratings Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead in ratings 2015 ? Opposition Government 2010 None Opposition Opposition 2005 Government Government Opposition 2001 Government Government Opposition 1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition 1987 Government Opposition Opposition 1983 Government Government Government
  32. 32. 32 Who do you want to be – Conservatives 1992 or Labour 1979? Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead in ratings 2015 ? Opposition Government 2010 None Opposition Opposition 2005 Government Government Opposition 2001 Government Government Opposition 1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition 1992 Government Opposition Government 1987 Government Opposition Opposition 1983 Government Government Government 1979 Opposition Opposition Government
  33. 33. 33 Thank you Gideon.skinner@ipsos.com | +4400 May 2014 © Ipsos MORI gideon.skinner@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3000

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