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International Bandwidth and Pricing Trends in Sub-Sahara Africa
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International Internet Bandwidth
and Pricing Trends in Africa
Patrick Christian
August 22, 2017
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The Global Picture
Inter-Regional Internet Bandwidth, 2017
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Global Growth Stable
International Internet Bandwidth Global Growth
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Content Provider Capacity Growing
Used International Capacity by Source 2002-2016
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Content Provider Traffic
Share of Used Bandwidth by Category for Major Routes, YE 2016
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10G Wave Prices Dropping Fast
Median 10 Gbps Wavelength Price Trends on Major Intl Routes
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IP Transit Prices Continue to Drop
Median 10 GigE IP Transit Prices in Major Global Cities
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Global IP Transit &Wave Prices
Weighted Median 10 Gbps IP Transit & Wavelength Q2 2017
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Submarine Capacity
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2017
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Proposed
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Africa is the Fastest Growing Region
International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region, 2012-2016
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Capacity Growth in Africa
International Internet Bandwidth Growth - Africa
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Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Int’l Internet Bandwidth Growth – Sub-Saharan Africa
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Connected to Europe
Major International Internet Routes in Africa, 2017
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Europe Hub Not Just for Africa
Regional Capacity Connected to the U.S. & Canada, 2006-2015
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Intra-Africa Connectivity Growth
Share of Africa Int’l Internet Bandwidth by Region, 2013-2017
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Intra-African Routes
Major International Internet Routes within Africa, 2017
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Transit and Transport Pricing
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Transport Prices STM-4
Median STM-4 Monthly Lease Prices in Africa, Q2 2017
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Median Prices 10 Gbps Waves
Johannesburg-London Q2 2014 – Q2 2017
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Regional Transit Prices
Median STM-1 IP Transit Prices in Africa, Q2 2017
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Data Centers
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Carriers Exchanging Traffic
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Colocation Floor Space
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Linking Content and Applications
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Major Content Provider Data Center Locations, 2017
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Cloud Data Centers & Direct Connects
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Outlook - Some Numbers
• 44% vs 30% - Africa vs Global - Int’l Internet bw
• 417m to 541m - 3G subs – 2016 - 2021
• 37m to 201m LTE subs – 2016 - 2021
• 51% vs 25% - peering vs transit growth
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Merci!
Patrick Christian
pchristian@telegeography.com
Notas do Editor
2013 Latam-US became highest capacity regional route over Europe-US (Latam transit to US/content) and private networks dampening trans-atl growth.
Top routes in terms of capacity – US-Europe, (number one still london-ny but now Latam-US next 2 Miami-Rio & Sao Paolo
Latam-US big bcs only inter regional route
Latam similar to Africa – 80% of international capacity is connected to US
Intra in Latam grew 70% to 18% of capacity
Annual growth used to be low 40s (doubling every 2 years) last 4 years in low 30s.
Due to: Private networks – CDNs and cloud service providers, changing traffic patterns, localizing traffic.
Trans-atlantic & trans-pacific used capacity now majority private network, dampening intl internet growth
Internet capacity has 5 year CAGR at 31%
Content provider capacity 76%
Total international capacity at 45%
Main East-West routes 50-75% content provider traffic (US-Europe-Asia)
North-South routes 5-20% content provider traffic (US-Latam, Eur-Africa)
Trans-Atlantic majority content 70%
Trans-Pacific over 50%
Euro-Africa almost 10%
Each line represents the median monthly lease price for an unprotected 10 Gbps wavelength on the listed route. Prices are in USD and exclude local access and installation fees.
Each column represents the weighted median monthly price per Mbps in the listed city. The line represents the decline of the median price calculated as a three year compound annual growth rate. Prices are in USD and exclude local access and installation fees. 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10 GigE) = 10,000 Mbps.
While 10 GigE is the predominant unit of wholesale IP transit transactions in many regions, high capacity sales have just started to emerge in Africa. Sales are limited to major markets such as South Africa and Kenya, where median 10 GigE port prices were $24 per Mbps in Q2 2016. now $9 with market price as low as $5
Notes: Each line represents the weighted median monthly lease price for an unprotected 10 Gbps wavelength on an individual route. Each circle represents the weighted median monthly price per Mbps for a 10 GigE IP transit port in the listed city. Routes and cities are shaded corresponding to price, from least expensive in blue to most expensive in red. Prices are in USD and exclude local access and installation fees. 10 Gbps & 10 GigE = 10,000 Mbps.
Before 2009 only 16 countries with sub cable landings
YE 2016 33 countries
Guinea Bissau, Eritrea, Western Sahara only countries w/o landings, plans for GB for next year
Annual Growth 53% almost 6Tbps
Annual Growth 69%
Only intra-African above 50Gbps SA – Zimbabwe 2016
2017 – COUNTRY-TO-COUNTRY routes (aggregate the city-to-city routes)
North Africa continues to climb, 98% to Europe
Intra-Africa – 9% to 15%
Africa 2013-2017 CAGR 106%??
Europe 46%
>1Gbps
New growing hub CdI, Djibouti
Algeria & Tunisia all to Europe
Colo floor space proxy for location of exchanged traffic (check legend)
Will update to reflect 2018 with Azure in S Africa
Africa vs Global intl internet bw growth year? CAGR 2017-2023
3G – 34% to 40% pop penetration 2017 vs 2021
LTE – 3% to 16% pop pen 2017 vs 2021
Peering vs Transit cagr 2017-2023 Africa CAGR