Presentation of Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna, Director of the Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre
It describe the main findings of an Integrated Assessment developed under UNEP and WMO on tropospheric ozone and black carbon. This has been put together by key experts around the globe, with Drew Shindell of NASA-GISS as the Chair of the Assessment and which has been coordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute. Tropospheric ozone is ozone which is formed in the lower atmosphere – different from Stratospheric ozone layer. This ozone is not emitted but created in the atmosphere from emitted precursors, of which methane and carbon monoxide are important ones. Black carbon is emitted as particles of carbon – essentially the main compnent of soot. These substances warm the atmosphere and act as air pollutants and there has been a lot of interest recently in the potential for reducing climate warming by addressing these substances.
Multiple Benefits of SLCP Mitigation in Alpine and Polar Regions
1. Multiple Benefits of SLCP
Mitigation in Alpine and Polar
Regions
Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna
Director, Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre
johan.kuylenstiernaUK@sei-international .org
2. UNEP/WMO Integrated
Assessment of Black
Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone
Johan Kuylenstierna, Stockholm
Environment Institute, SEI, Scientific
Coordinator and lead author
Drew Shindell, NASA-GISS, Chair;
Vice-Chairs: Frank Raes, Joint
Research Centre, EC; V. Ramanathan,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography;
Kim Oanh, AIT; Luis Cifuentes,
Catholic University of Chile
Coordinating lead authors: David
Streets, Argonne National Laboratory;
David Fowler, CEH; Lisa Emberson,
SEI; Martin Williams, Kings College
London
50 Contributors, over 100 reviewers
UNEP/WMO Coordinators: Volodymyr
Demkine, UNEP / Liisa Jalkanen, WMO
3. Near-term Climate and
Clean Air Benefits:
Actions for Controlling
Short-Lived Climate
Forcers
Lead authors: Johan Kuylenstierna (SEI);
Cristina Zucca (UNEP); Marcus Amann
(IIASA); Beatriz Cardenas (INE, Mexico);
Bradnee Chambers (UNEP); Zbigniew
Klimont (IIASA); Kevin Hicks (SEI);
Richard Mills (IUAPPA); Luisa Molina
(MIT); Frank Murray (Murdoch University);
Pam Pearson (ICCI); Surya Sethi (UoS);
Drew Shindell (NASA-GISS); Youba
Sokona (ACPC); Sara Terry (US EPA);
Harry Vallack (SEI); Rita van Dingenen
(EU JRC); Martin Williams (Kings
College); Eric Zusman (IGES)
Editorial assisstance from Joseph Alcamo
(UNEP) and Svante Bodin (Swedish
Ministry of Environment)
49 external reviewers
4. Climate and Clean Air Coalition to reduce
Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
There is a lot of scientific and political interest – Why?
5. What are short-lived climate pollutants?
Short-lived climate pollutants: Cause global
warming & relatively short-lived in the
atmosphere.
Black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone
Multiple benefits of reducing short-lived climate
pollutants:
• Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops
• Slow down near-term global warming, reduce
regional impacts of climate change
Also some HFCs
7. Air pollution: unfinished business on the
sustainable development agenda
Outdoor air pollution
“Some progress” : Despite some
progress, outdoor air pollution continues
Progress towards global
to have serious impacts on the
environmental goals
environment & human health.
(UNEP GEO-5)
About 1.2 (3.7?) million premature deaths each year due to
outside air pollution.
Indoor air pollution
“little or no progress”
“Indoor air pollution from particulate matter continues to have major
health impacts, particularly on women and children.”
• about3 billion people cook and heat using open fires and leaky
stoves burning biomass and coal
• Around 2 million people die each year prematurely from illness
attributable to indoor air pollution
Source: WHO statistics
8. Ground level
ozone
increasing over
wide areas
Due to methane
and other
precursors
Reducing ground level
ozone:
• protects public health
• reduces ozone damage
to crops
Source: UNEP GEO-5, HTAP
9. Impact of the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields
Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan
Clean air
Air with
ambient
ozone
10. A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce
emissions and achieve multiple benefits
IIASA ranked mitigation measures by the net climate impact (using GWP) of
their emission changes (considering CO, CH4, BC, OC, SO2, NOX, NMVOCs,
and CO2), picked the top measures – about 90% of warming benefit
Black carbon measures
• addressing emissions from incomplete
combustion
- BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCs
Methane measures
• reducing methane emissions
No technical breakthroughs
These measures already implemented in many countries
Cost-effective
11. The measures aiming at reducing methane emissions
Intermittent aeration -paddy Recovery from wastewater Recovery from oil and gas
Recovery from landfill Recovery from livestock manure / feed
Coal mine methane capture Reducing pipeline leakage
12. The measures aiming to reduce black carbon
emissions
Improved biomass stoves Modern coke ovens Remove big smokers / DPF
Cooking with clean fuel
Improved brick kilns
Pellet biomass heating stoves
Coal briquettes replacing coal Reduce agricultural burning Reduce flaring
13. Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005
9 BC measures
reduce
̴80% of BC
Reference: CH4 increases
7 CH4 measures reduce
̴ 25% of CH4 (2005); or
̴ 40% relative to 2030
BC measures
reduce
CO
14. Premature mortality avoided (1000s of deaths) 2.4 million avoided premature deaths - from outdoor PM
S, W & C
Asia
1.15
million
deaths/yr
Africa
200
thousand
deaths/yr
19. Estimated historic contributions to Arctic warming from
CO2 and from SLCFs. Reflective aerosols produced a
substantial cooling effect (based on data in Quinn et al.,
2008).
20. Global and regional temperature changes relative to
2009 projected under the reference scenario for
different global regions
• Largest projected increases in Arctic
21. Result for Global Temperature Change:
CO2 and SLCF measures are complementary strategies
Source: UNEP/WMO (2011). Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone. UNEP, Nairobi
22. The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
23. The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
24. Near-term framing
National action against air pollution
can slow down global warming
Slowing down near term global warming. How much?
16 measures reduce global warming up to 2040 ≈ 0.4/0.5oC relative to baseline
almost halving of temperature rise; 0.7oC reduction in Arctic
Glacier lake
Why slow down near term global warming? outburst floods
• Bursting glacier lakes;
• increasing heat waves
• Melting arctic land ice, ice caps, sea level rise
Also reduce regional climate change impacts
Glacier melting; arctic ice melting; precipitation patterns
Cannot replace CO2 reductions
Need both –
1. Reducing short-lived climate forcers: slow down near-term global warming
2. CO2 reductions for long term climate protection
25. Time series estimates of glacier mass balance in
different regions of the world (from Kaser et al., 2006).
Panel a. shows mass balance normalized to the glacierized area in
each region (specific mass balance), a measure of the relative
response of each region, while Panel b. shows change in total mass
balance, reported in millimetres of sea-level equivalent (SLE)
26. Global and Regional Temperature Change Relative to the
Reference Scenario (hybrid modelling of GISS, ECHAM
informed by the literature)
Methane measures:
Relatively uniform benefits,
low uncertainty
BC measures:
Larger benefits in North, greater
uncertainty for temperature (large
regional precipitation & glacial melting
benefits)
Reduced Arctic warming by 0.7oC by
2040 compared to the reference
Scenario, with measures taken
2010---2030. Mitigating ~2/3 of
projected 1.2oC warming
27. Global and Regional Temperature Change Relative to the
Reference Scenario (modelling using of GISS)
Global and regional temperature changes due to widespread use of pellet
stoves and boilers in industrialized countries and coal briquettes in the
residential sector in China.
28. Annual average surface temperature change (ºC) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the biggest temperature benefit occurs
29. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
30. Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of
Rainfall Patterns
Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference
case in the two models.
• Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to the
atmosphere occurs
• This drives regional weather pattern changes
31. How much does it cost?
Costs of implementing 16 measures
50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:
Low cost or no-cost Recovery of methane, better fuel
efficiency
Black carbon measures
• Improved stoves
• Upgraded brick kilns
Methane measures
• Recovery from fossil fuel production
(coal mines; gas distribution)
• Waste / landfill management
32. Conclusions
• Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries
reducing emissions will benefit from improved health (avoid 2.4
million deaths), crop yields (avoid > 30 million tonnes loss) etc
• 16 identified measures, implemented by 2030, would reduce
global warming by 0.5oC (0.2-0.7oC) in 2050 – half the
warming projected by the Reference Scenario
• Near-term measures would improve the chance of not
exceeding 2oC target, but only if CO2 is also addressed,
starting now (complementary strategies; not alternatives)
• Substantial regional climate benefits: e.g. in the Arctic reduce
warming by 0.7 oC (range 0.2-1.3oC by 2040), for Himalayas
and South Asian monsoon
• The identified measures are all currently in use in different
regions around the world; much wider and more rapid
implementation is required to achieve the full benefits
• Many measures achieve cost savings over time.
33. ‘An Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone’
http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/BlackCarbon_SDM.pdf
Near-term Climate and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for
Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers
http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/SLCF/
34. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
35. How much does it cost?
Costs of implementing 16 measures
GROUP 1: Cost Savings or Low Cost
e.g.
- Recovery and utilization of vented gas during oil production
- Replacement of traditional brick kilns with more efficient kilns
GROUP 2: Moderate Cost,
e.g. Coal mines: oxidation of ventilation methane
GROUP 3: High Cost,
e.g. Applying Euro VI/6 standards to vehicles
36. Actions on the National, Regional and Global Scales
Why national action?
• Most health benefits close to emission sources;
local sustainable development; unique mix of
emission sources
• Fast action on obvious emission sources, National Action
Plans
Why regional action?
• Reduce regional-scale pollution, e.g. black carbon transported long
distances to Himalayas, Arctic
• Integrate abatement of black carbon and methane into existing or new
regional air pollution agreements
Why global action?
• Support and catalyze national and regional action – awareness raising,
financing, technical assistance
• Control international emission sources Work within existing treaties: e.g.
Reduce black carbon emissions through MARPOL?
37. Actions on the National, Regional and Global Scales
Why national action?
• Most health benefits close to emission sources; local
sustainable development.
• Fast action on obvious emission sources, National Action Plans
Why regional action?
• Reduce regional-scale pollution, e.g. black carbon
transported long distances to Himalayas, Arctic
• Integrate abatement of black carbon and methane into
existing or new regional air pollution agreements
Why global action?
• Control international emission sources Work within existing treaties: e.g. Reduce
black carbon emissions through MARPOL?
• Support and catalyze national and regional action – awareness raising, financing,
technical assistance Climate and Clean Air Coalition
38. Political action now: the Coalition
Coalition for Climate and Clean Air
February, 2012: 6 countries + UNEP
End 2012: + 10 countries + other
partners ?
Action on Reducing Short-Lived
Climate Pollutants
• Awareness raising
• National action plans
• Black carbon from vehicles, brick kilns
• Methane from landfills, oil & gas
production
• HFCs from refrigeration & air
conditioning
39. Conclusions
Urgent questions about SLCPs require scientists and other experts to
work on two tracks:
3. Quick response Costs and benefits of emission reduction
measures science-basis for priority actions
4. Focused medium-term research Reduce uncertainties
Acting on SLCPs an important opportunity
Convergence of interests, new impulse to ...
Link solutions to climate change, air pollution and development
1. Reduce 2nd most important greenhouse gas – methane
2. Address major public health danger & important air pollutant –
particulate matter – a priority for sustainable development
40. Further thoughts
Coalition needs to achieve some rapid successes –
showing progress over the next year
To encourage further participation from Asia, Africa
and Latin America, highlight multiple benefits of
SLCP mitigation – allow countries to find key issues
they want to address in the SLCP agenda.
Link SLCP mitigation to on-going activities in
different countries – e.g. national development
plans in sectors such as waste management,
energy access
Needs to understand barriers and solutions to
implement different measures – informed by past
experience and case studies
Better characterised costs and wider societal
benefits of health improvement and infrastructure
development need to be made accessible
41. Observed (left) and modelled (right) surface BC
concentrations (ng/m3) (Koch et al., 2009a).
• showing rather sparse measurements but reasonable Source: Koch et
correlation between model and measurement al., 2009a
42. Black carbon and ozone concentrations (daily averages)
measured from March 2006 to February 2008 at the GAW-
WMO Global station "Nepal Climate Observatory - Pyramid"
at 5 097 m above mean sea level near Mt. Everest
550 ng m-3
showing values comparable with polluted Source: Bonasoni et al.,
areas during several pre-monsoon day 2010
43. Impact of the Measures on Health and
Crop yields
• Models give PM2.5 and ozone concentrations for health and crop
yield impact assessment
• Concentration-response relationships from literature used to
evaluate global impacts
Exposure of wheat to ozone
in Pakistan
Clean air
Air with
ambient
ozone
44. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
45. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
46. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
47. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
48. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
49. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
50. Warming in different latitude bands due to O3 and
aerosols only following the reference scenario for
emission projections from 2010 to 2030 and then
assuming constant emissions at 2030 levels thereafter
• Largest projected increases in Arctic
51. stratosphere
Tropospheric Ozone
stratospheric O3
8 – 15 km
chemical production chemical destruction
troposphere
CH4 CO VOCs NO O3
deposition
ls
bi ing
m ks
ss s
ga ttle
fo uel
ue
ea
in
il f
ca
of
sl
Notas do Editor
I will describe the main findings of an Integrated Assessment developed under UNEP and WMO on tropospheric ozone and black carbon. This has been put together by key experts around the globe, with Drew Shindell of NASA-GISS as the Chair of the Assessment and which has been coordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute. Tropospheric ozone is ozone which is formed in the lower atmosphere – different from Stratospheric ozone layer. This ozone is not emitted but created in the atmosphere from emitted precursors, of which methane and carbon monoxide are important ones. Black carbon is emitted as particles of carbon – essentially the main compnent of soot. These substances warm the atmosphere and act as air pollutants and there has been a lot of interest recently in the potential for reducing climate warming by addressing these substances.
I will describe the main findings of an Integrated Assessment developed under UNEP and WMO on tropospheric ozone and black carbon. This has been put together by key experts around the globe, with Drew Shindell of NASA-GISS as the Chair of the Assessment and which has been coordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute. Tropospheric ozone is ozone which is formed in the lower atmosphere – different from Stratospheric ozone layer. This ozone is not emitted but created in the atmosphere from emitted precursors, of which methane and carbon monoxide are important ones. Black carbon is emitted as particles of carbon – essentially the main compnent of soot. These substances warm the atmosphere and act as air pollutants and there has been a lot of interest recently in the potential for reducing climate warming by addressing these substances.
How much?
What is payoff of reducing these substances? Indoor air pollution [Assist] developing countries in providing affordable energy to rural communities, particularly to reduce dependence on traditional fuel sources for cooking and heating, which affect the health of women and children Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, para. 56(d) Outdoor air pollution Enhance cooperation at the international, regional and national levels to reduce air pollution, including transboundary air pollution [and] acid deposition… Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, para. 39 Start with bad news AP destroying the health of millions, esp. in developing countries. Europe: Euro 38-105 B/ yr in late 2000s Supporting the Millennium Development Goals (WHO Indoor Air Pollution fact sheet, Sept. 2011) Tackling indoor air pollution will help achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), in particular MDG 4 (reduce child mortality) and MDG 5 (improve maternal health). It will also contribute to gender equality (MDG 3) as well as freeing women's time for income generation that helps eradicate extreme poverty and hunger (MDG 1). Finally, clean household energy can help ensure environmental sustainability (MDG 7). WHO reports annually on the proportion of the population using solid fuels for cooking as a key indicator for assessing progress in health and development. Cook stove-smoke-image-South Asia: http://c96267.r67.cf3.rackcdn.com/stove_kirk_smith.jpg
HTAP (2010). Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution, 2010. Part A: Ozone and Particulate Matter. Air Pollution Studies No. 17. (eds. Dentener, F., Keating T. and Akimoto, H. Prepared by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) acting within the framework of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). United Nations, New York and Geneva 4 crops maize, wheat, soybeans, rice Total 13 MT
Ozone impacts health and crop yields (c.f. The impact on wheat in Pakistan – biggest pollutaqnt impacts on crop yields and ecosystem) PM is affected by BC measures – big impact on health crop yield benefits come from ozone concentration reductions
Elaborated by M. Amann Image of cook stove: UNEP Cook Stove Initiative 21 September 2010 – A United Nations-backed intervention involving cook stoves holds the promise of saving lives, uplifting health, improving regional environments, reducing deforestation, empowering local entrepreneurs, speeding development, and helping to stem global climate change.The United Nations Environment Programme ( UNEP ) has joined international efforts to dramatically boost the efficiency of some 3 billion cook stoves across Africa, Asia and Latin America, with the aim to protect women’s health and provide significant environmental benefits. The Global Alliance for Clean Cook Stoves was launched today on the margins of the General Assembly summit to review progress on the global anti-poverty targets known as the Millennium Development Goals ( MDGs ). Part of the Clinton Global Initiative spearheaded by the UN Foundation , the Global Alliance aims to cut the estimated 1.6 million to 1.8 million premature deaths linked with indoor emissions from inefficient cook stoves. From Climate Avenue Website: Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery (ECBM): Carbon dioxide is injected in to un-mined coal seams to displace methane; injection enables methane recovery and carbon dioxide sequestration. The factors still limiting the implementation of ECBM are economical, technological and limited understanding of fundamental issues related to ECBM. Photo: Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery CBM has advantages over the CMM method of extracting methane: CBM facilitates extraction of gas from coal seams prior to mining the coal, thus reducing the potential danger of explosion caused by methane when carrying out traditional mining methods Its methane quality allows the extracted methane to be fed directly into the gas distribution network. This is to be contrasted with CMM/AMM which normally has a higher carbon dioxide mix and as such is not suitable for direct introduction.
This shows the Integrated result of applying all measures to sectors – for temperature health and crop yields The first graph shows the temperature result – all measures result in about half a degree reduction in warming, of which about half is due to mehtane measures and half to black carbon measures, and the uncertainty is greater for BC measures. The result for helth shows that the largest beenfit is from PM2.5 reduction assocated with the BC measures and this is about 2.5 million avoided premature deaths annnually across the globe. For crop yields the both BC and methaqne measures contfribute to the reduction i n ozone precursors leading to reduced losses in yield from wheat, rice, maize and soybean globally in the order of 50 million tonnes annually
This shows the Integrated result of applying all measures to sectors – for temperature health and crop yields The first graph shows the temperature result – all measures result in about half a degree reduction in warming, of which about half is due to mehtane measures and half to black carbon measures, and the uncertainty is greater for BC measures. The result for helth shows that the largest beenfit is from PM2.5 reduction assocated with the BC measures and this is about 2.5 million avoided premature deaths annnually across the globe. For crop yields the both BC and methaqne measures contfribute to the reduction i n ozone precursors leading to reduced losses in yield from wheat, rice, maize and soybean globally in the order of 50 million tonnes annually
Impact on global warming shown in this graph. The assessment calculated a reference scenario – extrapolating current trends – consistent with IPCC – if we carry on emitting according to current trends in energy use and technology then the world is heading for an increase in ptemperature that exceeds 2oC some time towards the middle of this century. If we manage to reduce CO2 emissions consistent with a 450ppm scenario as developed by IEA, which is fairly ambitious then the tmerature increase slows, but only in the long-term as it takes some time for the CO2 decreases to affect global temperature, and there is a good chance that 2oC will be exceeded. If we implement fully the Methane and BC measures identified in the assessment, starting now and implemented by 2030, the rate of temperature increase reduces in the first half of this century, leading to a 0.5oC reduction in warming, about half of the warming projected by the reference scenario for 2050. But without any reduction in CO2, then the temperature increases in parallel to the reference scenario due to the influence of CO and exceeds the 2oC target in the latter half of the century, but a couple of decades later than the reference case. However, a combination of the near-term measures on methane and BC in combination with the ambitious CO2 emission reductions slow the rate of warming in the near term and reduces the long term wamring and there is an increased chance of avoiding crossing the 2oC target during this century
Impact on global warming shown in this graph. The assessment calculated a reference scenario – extrapolating current trends – consistent with IPCC – if we carry on emitting according to current trends in energy use and technology then the world is heading for an increase in ptemperature that exceeds 2oC some time towards the middle of this century. If we manage to reduce CO2 emissions consistent with a 450ppm scenario as developed by IEA, which is fairly ambitious then the tmerature increase slows, but only in the long-term as it takes some time for the CO2 decreases to affect global temperature, and there is a good chance that 2oC will be exceeded. If we implement fully the Methane and BC measures identified in the assessment, starting now and implemented by 2030, the rate of temperature increase reduces in the first half of this century, leading to a 0.5oC reduction in warming, about half of the warming projected by the reference scenario for 2050. But without any reduction in CO2, then the temperature increases in parallel to the reference scenario due to the influence of CO and exceeds the 2oC target in the latter half of the century, but a couple of decades later than the reference case. However, a combination of the near-term measures on methane and BC in combination with the ambitious CO2 emission reductions slow the rate of warming in the near term and reduces the long term wamring and there is an increased chance of avoiding crossing the 2oC target during this century
The potential for glacial lakes to cause devastation became reality in Bhutan on the 7th October 1994 when Luggye Tsho, one of the lakes in the Lunana region, burst through its left lateral moraine (see Fig. 8–10). The ensuing Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), which contained an estimated 18 million cubic meters of water, debris and trees, swept downstream, killed 21 people, and travelled over 204 km before crossing the border into India and finally dissipating.
Now if we look more closely into the effect of the different measures, we can say that the methane measures have similar impacts on warming in different world regions and the uncertainty is failry low as there is a lot of knowledge concerning the effects of methane in the atmosphere. However the assessment has shown that methane is more important for ozone formation than was previously understood, which makes it even more effective at reducing warming. However, when the BC measures are added, it can be seen that there is a greater regional difference in the effect on warming – greater benefits in the North – and in the Arctic where the reduction in warming is greater than the global average – 0.7 oC reduction or about 2/3 of the warming projected for this region. This is clearly important given the rate of melting that is already being seen in the Arctic and whilst the measures would not halt increased warming, they could reduce it significantly and this could help avoid dangerous changes in that region. Not only the impacts of BC in the atmosphere, but also the impacts of depositon of BC on snow and ice is important as the derkaning of the snow and ice leads to increased melting rates. This is also important for other glacial areas such as Himalayas. There are also other regional impacts on climate not captured by looking at global temperature changes. These include changes in rainfall distribution – e.g. Affecting S Asian monsoon, and reducing BC would shift rainfall patterns back to a more pre-industrial distribution. Black carbon measures are also associated with a greater uncertainty in comparison to methane measures.
Now if we look more closely into the effect of the different measures, we can say that the methane measures have similar impacts on warming in different world regions and the uncertainty is failry low as there is a lot of knowledge concerning the effects of methane in the atmosphere. However the assessment has shown that methane is more important for ozone formation than was previously understood, which makes it even more effective at reducing warming. However, when the BC measures are added, it can be seen that there is a greater regional difference in the effect on warming – greater benefits in the North – and in the Arctic where the reduction in warming is greater than the global average – 0.7 oC reduction or about 2/3 of the warming projected for this region. This is clearly important given the rate of melting that is already being seen in the Arctic and whilst the measures would not halt increased warming, they could reduce it significantly and this could help avoid dangerous changes in that region. Not only the impacts of BC in the atmosphere, but also the impacts of depositon of BC on snow and ice is important as the derkaning of the snow and ice leads to increased melting rates. This is also important for other glacial areas such as Himalayas. There are also other regional impacts on climate not captured by looking at global temperature changes. These include changes in rainfall distribution – e.g. Affecting S Asian monsoon, and reducing BC would shift rainfall patterns back to a more pre-industrial distribution. Black carbon measures are also associated with a greater uncertainty in comparison to methane measures.
Image of cook stove: UNEP Cook Stove Initiative 21 September 2010 – A United Nations-backed intervention involving cook stoves holds the promise of saving lives, uplifting health, improving regional environments, reducing deforestation, empowering local entrepreneurs, speeding development, and helping to stem global climate change.The United Nations Environment Programme ( UNEP ) has joined international efforts to dramatically boost the efficiency of some 3 billion cook stoves across Africa, Asia and Latin America, with the aim to protect women’s health and provide significant environmental benefits. The Global Alliance for Clean Cook Stoves was launched today on the margins of the General Assembly summit to review progress on the global anti-poverty targets known as the Millennium Development Goals ( MDGs ). Part of the Clinton Global Initiative spearheaded by the UN Foundation , the Global Alliance aims to cut the estimated 1.6 million to 1.8 million premature deaths linked with indoor emissions from inefficient cook stoves. From Climate Avenue Website: Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery (ECBM): Carbon dioxide is injected in to un-mined coal seams to displace methane; injection enables methane recovery and carbon dioxide sequestration. The factors still limiting the implementation of ECBM are economical, technological and limited understanding of fundamental issues related to ECBM. Photo: Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery CBM has advantages over the CMM method of extracting methane: CBM facilitates extraction of gas from coal seams prior to mining the coal, thus reducing the potential danger of explosion caused by methane when carrying out traditional mining methods Its methane quality allows the extracted methane to be fed directly into the gas distribution network. This is to be contrasted with CMM/AMM which normally has a higher carbon dioxide mix and as such is not suitable for direct introduction.
Point out main findings up front
CH4 transboundary
Figure 3.12 Modelled global changes in surface O 3 concentrations between pre-industrial times and the present day. Multimodel mean surface layer annual mean ozone (ppb), for pre-industrial (PI) times (top left) and present- day (PD) (top right). The modelled increase in O 3 (PD-PI) (lower left) and the percentage of annual mean O 3 attributable to anthropogenic sources (lower right). Source??
But worth it; opportunity for … Make the best of this opportunity
But worth it; opportunity for … Make the best of this opportunity
Ozone impacts health and crop yields (c.f. The impact on wheat in Pakistan – biggest pollutaqnt impacts on crop yields and ecosystem) PM is affected by BC measures – big impact on health crop yield benefits come from ozone concentration reductions