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29 July 2014
1QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Shobhit Khare (Shobhit.Khare@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
CMP: INR354 TP: INR465 Buy25,991 7,749
Bloomberg BHARTI IN
Equity Shares (m) 3,997.4
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 1,416.5/23.6
52-Week Range (INR) 374/279
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 3/-10/-27
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales 947.4 1,037.5 1,124.9
EBITDA 322.1 364.0 394.5
Adj. Net
fi
51.6 70.1 91.1
Adj. EPS
( )
12.9 17.5 22.8
Adj. EPS Gr.
(%)
83.9 36.0 30.0
BV/Sh (INR) 176.9 192.8 213.5
RoE (%) 7.7 9.5 11.2
RoCE (%) 5.9 6.7 7.7
D. payout (%) 10 10 10
Valuations
P/E (x) 27.4 20.2 15.5
P/BV (x) 2.0 1.8 1.7
EV/EBITDA
( )
6.5 5.6 4.7
 1QFY15 revenue/EBITDA above estimates; continued strong growth in PAT:
BHARTI’s 1QFY15 EBITDA grew 18% YoY and 5.7% QoQ to INR 77.2b (est
INR74.6b) driven by strong performance in India mobile business. Consolidated
revenue grew 13.3% YoY and 3.3% QoQ to INR 229.6b (vs est INR224.9b),
boosted by India mobile, Telemedia and DTH segments but dragged down by
Africa business. Proforma PAT increased 97% YoY and 13.8% QoQ to INR13.6b.
Reported PAT of INR11.1b included INR2.5b exceptional loss due to various
disputes. PAT performance was strong despite INR3b forex loss.
 Continued robust recovery in India mobile: India mobile revenue grew 9.9% YoY
and 5.5% QoQ to INR127.5b. EBITDA grew 25% YoY and 11.7% QoQ to INR47.1b
(vs est of INR44b). Mobile traffic grew 2.3% QoQ (vs est of 1.5%); mobile RPM
increased 3.5% QoQ to 46.5p (vs est of 45.6p). Data revenue contribution
increased to 12.4% (up 90bp QoQ) on 17% QoQ traffic growth.
 Africa performance remains muted: Africa EBIDTA declined 2.3% QoQ to
USD283m (vs est USD286m). Revenue grew 1.6% QoQ (primarily RPM led),
impacted by 1.4% revenue-weighted currency depreciation. Subscriber base
declined QoQ due to promotional bans in Nigeria and KYC changes in Uganda.
 Net debt down INR28b QoQ to INR577b: Net debt declined 4.6% QoQ to
INR577b on strong free cash generation. 1QFY15 capex stood at INR39.9b.
 Change in segment reporting: BHARTI has made changes to the segment
reporting structure. India & South Asia will include 1) Bangladesh and Srilanka
operations and 2) Acquisition debt/associated finance cost of Africa business.
 Upgrading EBITDA by 4%; TP by 14%; maintain Buy: We are upgrading our
EBITDA estimates by ~4%. We expect 14% consolidated EBITDA CAGR over FY14-
16E. The stock trades at proportionate EV/EBITDA of 6.5x FY15E and 5.6x FY16E.
Maintain Buy with a revised target price of INR465 (INR410 earlier) based on
6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA for India business (ex towers), 5x EV/EBITDA for Africa, and
15% discount vs fair value for Bharti Infratel (recently upgraded).
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
29 July 2014 2
Bharti Airtel
India & South Asia EBITDA up 9% QoQ
 India revenue grew 12% YoY and 5.7% QoQ to INR162b (v/s our estimate of
INR156.8b).
 EBITDA grew 22% YoY and 9.1% QoQ to INR60.2b (v/s our estimate of INR57.2b).
 EBITDA margin improved 300bp YoY and 120bp QoQ to 37.2% (v/s our estimate
of 36.5%), led by margin expansion in India mobile.
India Mobile: EBITDA up 12% QoQ driven by strong all round performance
 Mobile revenue increased 9.9% YoY and 5.5% QoQ to INR127.5b (est of
INR124.7b).
 Mobile EBITDA grew 25.1% YoY and 11.7% QoQ to INR47.1b (est of INR44b).
 EBITDA margin improved ~450bp YoY and ~200bp QoQ to 36.9%.
 RPM increased 5.7% YoY and 3.5% QoQ to 46.5p vs our est of 45.6p.
 Mobile traffic grew 4.8% YoY and 2.3% QoQ to 271b minutes, above our
estimate of 269b minutes.
 Data continued to grow strongly with traffic growth of 17% QoQ and data
revenue growth of 14% QoQ. Data contribution increased to 12.4% of revenue
in 1QFY15 from 11.5% in 4QFY14.
 MOU per subscriber declined marginally QoQ to 435 minutes (vs est of 432
minutes).
 Mobile ARPU increased 3.1% QoQ to INR202 (vs est of INR197).
 Blended monthly churn increased marginally QoQ to 2.7%.
Africa: Performance remains muted
 Africa revenue increased 1.6% QoQ to USD1,164m (v/s est of USD1,162m).
 EBITDA declined 2.3% QoQ to USD283m implying EBITDA margin of 24.3% vs our
estimate of 24.6%.
 Net loss increased 31% QoQ to ~USD137m (v/s our estimate of USD142m net
loss).
 Total minutes increased 0.4% QoQ to 28.3b; RPM increased 1.8% QoQ.
 Subscriber base declined marginally to 69.1m, impacted by regulatory issues in
Nigeria and Uganda.
Net debt at INR577b; strong momentum in 3G site additions
 Bharti’s net debt declined 4.6% QoQ to INR577b led by strong free cash flow
during the quarter. Reported debt does not yet include INR129b spectrum
related payments. Net debt/ annualized EBITDA remains comfortable at 1.9x
 1QFY15 consolidated capex was ~INR40b implying capex/sales of 17%.
 While 2G site additions declined QoQ at ~1,100, 3G sites additions remained
strong at ~3,300.
29 July 2014 3
Bharti Airtel
Story in Charts
India mobile KPIs
190
183
187
189
185
177
185
193
200
192
195
196
202
445
423
419
431
433
417
435
455
455
437
434
437
435
42.8 43.2 44.6
43.8
42.7
42.6
42.6 42.4 44.0 44.0
44.8 44.9
46.5
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
Mobile ARPU (INR) Mobile MOU (mins) Mobile RPM (p)
Source: Company, MOSL
Bharti India: YoY mobile traffic growth (%)
16
14
10
9
8 8
10 10
8 7
6
5 5
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
Source: Company, MOSL
Bharti India: Mobile traffic and RPM trend
-20 -18 -24
-21 -17 -17 -17 -17 -1 -3
5 7
5
3
1.87
1.54 1.17
0.93
0.77
0.64
0.53
0.44 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.50 0.52
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
YoY RPM (%) Mobile RPM (INR)
Source: Company, MOSL
Bharti India: Mobile data traffic
13
16
20
24
27
34
39
47
56
26%
25%
21%
14%
23%
16%
20% 19%
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
Data traffic (b MB) QoQgrowth (%)
Source: Company, MOSL
Bharti India: Data revenue contribution and ARMB (p)
35
32
29
29
31
30
30
28
28
4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 9% 10% 11% 12%
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
Data revenue per MB (p) Data revenue (% of wireless)
Source: Company, MOSL
  Bharti Airtel
Bharti India: Mobile churn rate per month (%)  
Source: Company, MOSL 
Bharti vs Idea: QoQ India mobile traffic growth (%) 
Source: Company, MOSL 
 
India mobile revenue and EBITDA margin 
Source: Company, MOSL 
Africa revenue and EBITDA margin 
Source: Company, MOSL 
 
Bharti: Mobile cell site base and quarterly additions 
Source: Company, MOSL
Consolidated net debt and net debt/EBITDA 
Source: Company, MOSL
 
Bharti Airtel: SOTP 
   FY16 EBITDA  (INR B)  Ownership 
Proportionate  
EBITDA (INR b) 
EV/EBITDA 
Fair value 
(INR b) 
Value/Sh 
India business (excl. towers)  259  100%  259  6.5  1,680  420 
Tower business (15% discount to fair value)     79%        382  96 
Africa business  75  90%  68  5.0  339  85 
Less FY16 net debt              549  137 
Total Value              1,470  465 
Shares o/s (b)  4.00                
CMP                 354 
Upside (%)                 31 
Source: Company, MOSL
 
 
6.4
7.2
7.9
8.8 8.8 8.5
5.9
3.2 3.2 3.2
2.7 2.4 2.7
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
5
‐2 1
5
4
‐2
3
5
2 ‐3 1 4
2
7
‐2
7
9
5
‐4
5
8
3
‐6
4
9
5
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
Bharti ‐ QoQ growth
 
98.4
97.8
101.8
105.1
104.6
108.9
107.0
110.2
116.0
113.5
116.4
120.8
127.5
34.2%33.7%33.8%34.0%
29.9%30.7%
29.2%
30.6%
32.4%33.5%34.1%34.9%
36.9%
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
India mobile revenue (INR b) EBITDA margin (%)
979
1030
1057
1071
1066
1097
1133
1120
1062
1119
1165
1145
1164
25.2%
26.2%26.7%
27.8%
25.8%
27.1%
26.5%
25.4%
26.7%
26.9%
25.8%25.3%
24.3%
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
Africa mobile revenue (USD m) EBITDA margin (%)
 
117
118
119
121
126
129
131
134
135
135
137
139
140
0.9 0.9
1.0 1.9
5.1
3.4
2.0 2.3
1.0
0.7
1.7
1.7
1.1
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
Cellsites ('000)  Sites added ('000) 
601
645
678
651
656
612
585
586
593
620
582
611
576
2.63 2.77 2.84 2.61 2.99 2.58 2.53 2.42 2.26 2.27 2.05 2.09 1.87
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY14
Net Debt (INR b) Net Debt/EBITDA (x)
29 July 2014 4
29 July 2014 5
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Airtel - Consolidated Segment wise Summary as per IFRS (INR m)
1QFY14 4QFY14# 1QFY15# YoY% QoQ% 1QFY15E v/s Est (%)
Revenue
Mobile 116,013 120,835 127,525 9.9 5.5 124,706 2.3
Telemedia 9,484 10,242 10,705 12.9 4.5 10,362 3.3
Enterprise 14,036 16,305 16,111 14.8 -1.2 16,794 -4.1
Passive Infrastructure 12,832 13,061 13,328 3.9 2.0 13,583 -1.9
Others (incl South Asia) 9,439 10,738 11,065 17.2 3.0 10,611 4.3
Africa 59,475 70,623 69,685 17.2 -1.3 74,067 -5.9
Eliminations -18,639 -19,611 -18,803 0.9 -4.1 -20,894
Consolidated Revenue 202,639 222,193 229,616 13.3 3.3 224,878 2.1
EBITDA
Mobile 37,633 42,147 47,061 25.1 11.7 43,964 7.0
Telemedia 3,764 3,816 3,947 4.8 3.4 3,872 1.9
Enterprise 2,765 3,661 3,223 16.6 -12.0 3,660 -11.9
Passive Infrastructure 5,745 6,340 6,073 5.7 -4.2 6,527 -7.0
Others (incl South Asia) 635 730 1,244 95.9 70.4 1,244 0.0
Africa 15,867 17,816 16,958 6.9 -4.8 17,535 -3.3
Eliminations -960 -1,474 -1,306 36.0 -11.4 -1,292
Consolidated EBITDA 65,449 73,066 77,200 18.0 5.7 74,616 3.5
EBITDA margin (%)
Mobile 32.4 34.9 36.9 446bps 202bps 35.3 165bps
Telemedia 39.7 37.3 36.9 -282bps -39bps 37.4 -50bps
Enterprise 19.7 22.5 20.0 31bps -245bps 21.8 -179bps
Passive Infrastructure 44.8 48.5 45.6 79bps -298bps 48.1 -249bps
International 26.7 25.2 24.3 -234bps -89bps 23.7 66bps
Consolidated EBITDA margin 32.3 32.9 33.6 132bps 74bps 33.2 44bps
Depreciation and amortization 38,470 39,444 40,365 4.9 2.3 40,462 -0.2
Operating income 26,979 33,622 36,835 36.5 9.6 34,154 7.8
Share of JV/Associate 3,075 1,673 1,578 -48.7 -5.7 1,406 12.3
Net finance cost 11,676 9,911 9,565 -18.1 -3.5 9,431 1.4
Proforma Profit Before Taxes 18,378 25,384 28,848 57.0 13.6 26,128 10.4
Proforma Tax 9,685 13,306 14,629 51.1 9.9 12,844 13.9
Effective Tax Rate (%) 52.7 52.4 50.7 -199bps -171bps 49.2 2bps
Proforma Profit After Tax 8,693 12,078 14,219 63.6 17.7 13,284 7.0
Proforma Minority Interest 1,804 128 617 -65.8 382.0 721 -14.4
Proforma Net Profit 6,889 11,950 13,601 97.4 13.8 12,563 8.3
#4QFY14/1QFY15 numbers adjusted for exceptional expense of INR1569m/INR1820m and associated tax impact
Source: Company, MOSL
India Mobile: Operating Metrics
India - Wireless KPIs 1QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 YoY% QoQ% 1QFY15E v/s Est (%)
Wireless traffic (b min) 258 265 271 4.8 2.3 269 0.8
RPM (p) 44.0 44.9 46.5 5.7 3.5 45.6 2.1
Subscribers (m) 191 206 209 9.7 1.9 209 0.1
ARPU (INR) 200 196 202 1.1 3.1 197 2.8
MOU (min) 455 437 435 -4.3 -0.4 432 0.8
Monthly churn (%) 3.2 2.4 2.7 -51bps 28bps
Voice RPM (p) 36.6 37.2 38.1 4.1 2.5
Non-voice revenue contribution 16.9 17.4 18.2 131bps 80bps
Data revenue contribution 8.2 11.5 12.4 422bps 92bps
Source: Company, MOSL
29 July 2014 6
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Africa: Quarterly Performance (USDm)
1QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 YoY% QoQ% 1QFY15E v/s Est (%)
Revenue 1,062 1,145 1,164 9.6 1.6 1,162 -1.5
EBITDA 283 290 283 0.0 -2.3 286 1.5
EBITDA margin (%) 26.7 25.3 24.3 -233bps -98bps 24.6 75bps
Depreciation and amortization 219 226 236 8.0 4.6 230 -1.9
EBIT 64 64 47 -27.4 -26.9 55 15.9
Net finance cost 59 122 124 108.7 1.3 139 -12.1
Profit Before Taxes 5 -58 -77 -1647.5 32.1 -84 -30.4
Total Tax 68 68 80 16.4 17.5 70 -2.9
Profit After Tax (before minorities) -63 -127 -157 147.4 23.3 -155 -17.8
Minority Interest -11 -23 -20 75.9 -12.0 -13 81.3
Net Profit -52 -105 -137 162.9 31.0 -142 -26.6
Bharti Africa: KPIs
Mobile Subs (m) 64.2 69.4 69.1 7.6 -0.5 71.5 -2.9
Mobile ARPU (USD/month) 5.5 5.5 5.6 2.3 1.9 5.5 0.1
Total Minutes of Use (b mins) 26.0 28.2 28.3 8.8 0.4 28.9 -2.5
Minutes of Use/Sub/Month 134 136 136 1.6 0.0 137 -0.4
Effective Mobile RPM (US Cents) 4.1 4.0 4.1 0.7 1.8 4.0 0.5
Source: Company, MOSL
Summary of estimate change
FY15E FY16E FY17E
Revenue (INR b)
Old 930 1018 1096
New 947 1037 1125
Change (%) 1.9 1.9 2.6
EBITDA (INR b)
Old 310 351 380
New 322 364 395
Change (%) 3.8 3.8 3.8
EBITDA margin (%)
Old 33.4 34.5 34.7
New 34.0 35.1 35.1
Change (bp) 62bps 61bps 40bps
Depreciation (INR b)
Old 169 188 201
New 169 190 202
Change (%) 0 1 1
Net finance cost (INR b)
Old 40 41 34
New 44 46 35
Change (%) 9 10 4
Tax rate (%)
Old 49 47 45
New 53 47 43
Change (bp) 332bps -62bps -161bps
Net Profit (INR b)
Old 51 64 81
New 52 70 91
Change (%) 0.3 9.8 12.6
EPS (INR)
Old 12.9 16.0 20.3
New 12.9 17.5 22.8
Change (%) 0.3 9.8 12.6
Source: Company, MOSL
29 July 2014 7
Bharti Airtel
Key assumptions and value drivers
Mobile segment FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Mobile - India
Subs (m) 128 162 181 188 206 218 229 237
YoY (%) 36 27 12 4 9 6 5 4
Average subs (m) 111 145 172 185 197 212 224 233
YoY (%) 42 31 19 8 7 8 5 4
Netadds per month (m) 2.8 2.9 1.6 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7
YoY (%) 6 3 -45 -64 150 -26 -20 -16
Total mobile traffic (b min) 610 792 889 968 1,030 1,090 1,149 1,198
YoY (%) 28 30 12 9 6 6 5 4
ARPU (INR/month) 243 201 188 185 194 204 214 221
YoY (%) -25 -17 -6 -1 5 5 5 3
MOU 459 455 431 436 436 428 428 428
YoY (%) -10 -1 -5 1 0 -2 0 0
Mobile RPM (INR) 0.53 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.50 0.52
YoY (%) -17 -17 -1 -3 5 7 5 3
Mobile EBITDA margin (%) 38.7 34.7 33.9 30.1 33.8 37.0 38.8 38.1
Mobile Capex (INR b) 34 59 32 57 42 62 62 61
Mobile Capex/sales (%) 10 16 8 13 9 12 11 10
Mobile - Africa
Subs (m) 44 53 64 69 73 81 91
YoY (%) 5 20 20 9 5 12 12
Netadds per month (m) 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.8
ARPU (USD/month) 7.3 7.1 6.3 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4
YoY (%) -2 -11 -11 0 -2 -2
Capex (USD b) 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
Capex/Sales (%) 24 37 16 14 15 15 15
EBITDA margin (%) 25 27 26 26 25 25 26
Source: Company, MOSL
29 July 2014 8
Bharti Airtel
Business mix
Revenue (INR b) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Mobile 331 363 403 431 467 526 581 626
Telemedia 34 36 37 36 39 44 50 54
Enterprise 45 41 45 53 63 67 72 77
Passive Infrastructure 71 86 95 50 51 57 65 73
Others (incl South Asia) 6 10 16 32 41 46 52 57
Africa 0 131 198 240 273 287 304 333
Total revenue 487 667 794 842 934 1026 1124 1219
Eliminations and others -68 -72 -80 -73 -77 -78 -87 -94
Consolidated revenue 418 595 715 769 857 947 1037 1125
YoY% 13 42 20 8 11 10 10 8
EBITDA (INR b)
Mobile 128 126 137 130 158 195 225 239
Telemedia 15 16 16 15 15 16 18 19
Enterprise 13 10 8 9 14 14 16 16
Passive Infrastructure 25 32 36 23 23 26 30 34
Others (incl South Asia) -10 -10 -9 -2 2 5 6 7
Africa 0 29 53 63 71 71 75 86
Total EBITDA 170 202 240 236 282 327 370 401
Eliminations and others -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -5 -6 -7
Consolidated EBITDA 168 200 237 233 278 322 364 395
YoY% 11 19 19 -2 19 16 13 8
Capex (INR b)
Mobile 34 59 32 57 42 62 62 61
Telemedia 10 8 8 3 4 3 3 4
Enterprise 12 4 2 1 1 1 1 1
Others (incl South Asia) 16 14 9 11 13 21 13 13
Passive infrastructure 12 23 14 11 8 10 11 12
Africa 0 36 76 39 38 42 46 50
Consolidated capex 83 143 140 122 106 139 136 141
YoY% -41 71 -2 -13 -13 31 -3 4
Capex/Sales (%) 20 24 20 16 12 15 13 12
Source: Company, MOSL
29 July 2014 9
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Airtel: an investment profile
Company description
Bharti Airtel is an integrated telecom operator with
presence in wireless, fixed-line and broadband, long
distance, enterprise, and passive infrastructure services
across India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Africa. Bharti is
the largest Indian wireless operator with revenue
market share of ~31% and population coverage of 86%.
Bharti is the third largest wireless company globally by
subscribers.
Key investment arguments
 Bharti continues to maintain its wireless leadership
in India with a wireless subscriber share of ~21%
and adjusted revenue share of ~31%.
 Bharti is well positioned to capture rural growth by
leveraging its deep coverage and favorable
frequency allocation.
 Bharti has the highest investment in data spectrum
among Indian telecom operators
Key investment risks
 Overbidding in upcoming spectrum auctions
 Potential market disruption from entry of a well-
funded operator like Reliance Industries into the
Indian telecom market
 High forex risk given exposure to significant USD
denominated debt
Recent developments
 Bharti Airtel/subsidiaries have entered into
agreements for the divestment of over 3,100 telecom
towers in four countries across Africa operations to
Helios Towers Africa/subsidiaries (HTA). Bharti’s
subsidiaries will have access to a dedicated portion of
the towers from HTA under long term lease
contracts.
Valuation & View
 We are upgrading our EBITDA estimates by ~4%. We
expect 14% consolidated EBITDA CAGR over FY14-
16E. The stock trades at proportionate EV/EBITDA of
6.5x FY15E and 5.6x FY16E. Maintain Buy with a
revised target price of INR465 (INR410 earlier) based
on 6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA for India business (ex
towers), 5x EV/EBITDA for Africa, and 15% discount
vs fair value for Bharti Infratel (recently upgraded).
Comparative valuations
Bharti
Airtel
Idea RCOM
P/E (x) FY15E 27.4 16.7 30.4
FY16E 20.2 18.2 11.8
EV/EBITDA (x) FY15E 6.5 6.4 7.3
FY16E 5.6 6.7 5.9
EV/Sales (x) FY15E 2.1 2.2 2.7
FY16E 1.9 2.3 2.2
P/BV (x) FY15E 2.0 2.3 0.9
FY16E 1.8 2.1 0.9
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
MOSL
Forecast
Consensus
Forecast
Variation
(%)
FY15 12.9 13.2 -2.3
FY16 17.5 16.7 5.0
Target price and recommendation
Current
Price (INR)
Target
Price (INR)
Upside
(%)
Reco
354 410 15.8 Buy
Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-14 Mar-14 Jun-13
Promoter 65.4 65.3 65.2
DII 7.2 7.8 8.2
FII 17.7 16.4 16.2
Others 9.7 10.5 10.4
Stock performance (1-year)
29 July 2014 10
Bharti Airtel
Financials and valuation
29 July 2014 11
Bharti Airtel
N O T E S
29 July 2014 12
Bharti Airtel
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Disclosure of Interest Statement BHARTI AIRTEL LTD
Analyst ownership of the stock No
Analyst Certification
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Bharti Airtel 1QFY15 revenue above estimates; buy

  • 1. 29 July 2014 1QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Telecom Bharti Airtel Shobhit Khare (Shobhit.Khare@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428 BSE SENSEX S&P CNX CMP: INR354 TP: INR465 Buy25,991 7,749 Bloomberg BHARTI IN Equity Shares (m) 3,997.4 M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 1,416.5/23.6 52-Week Range (INR) 374/279 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 3/-10/-27 Financials & Valuation (INR Billion) Y/E Mar 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Sales 947.4 1,037.5 1,124.9 EBITDA 322.1 364.0 394.5 Adj. Net fi 51.6 70.1 91.1 Adj. EPS ( ) 12.9 17.5 22.8 Adj. EPS Gr. (%) 83.9 36.0 30.0 BV/Sh (INR) 176.9 192.8 213.5 RoE (%) 7.7 9.5 11.2 RoCE (%) 5.9 6.7 7.7 D. payout (%) 10 10 10 Valuations P/E (x) 27.4 20.2 15.5 P/BV (x) 2.0 1.8 1.7 EV/EBITDA ( ) 6.5 5.6 4.7  1QFY15 revenue/EBITDA above estimates; continued strong growth in PAT: BHARTI’s 1QFY15 EBITDA grew 18% YoY and 5.7% QoQ to INR 77.2b (est INR74.6b) driven by strong performance in India mobile business. Consolidated revenue grew 13.3% YoY and 3.3% QoQ to INR 229.6b (vs est INR224.9b), boosted by India mobile, Telemedia and DTH segments but dragged down by Africa business. Proforma PAT increased 97% YoY and 13.8% QoQ to INR13.6b. Reported PAT of INR11.1b included INR2.5b exceptional loss due to various disputes. PAT performance was strong despite INR3b forex loss.  Continued robust recovery in India mobile: India mobile revenue grew 9.9% YoY and 5.5% QoQ to INR127.5b. EBITDA grew 25% YoY and 11.7% QoQ to INR47.1b (vs est of INR44b). Mobile traffic grew 2.3% QoQ (vs est of 1.5%); mobile RPM increased 3.5% QoQ to 46.5p (vs est of 45.6p). Data revenue contribution increased to 12.4% (up 90bp QoQ) on 17% QoQ traffic growth.  Africa performance remains muted: Africa EBIDTA declined 2.3% QoQ to USD283m (vs est USD286m). Revenue grew 1.6% QoQ (primarily RPM led), impacted by 1.4% revenue-weighted currency depreciation. Subscriber base declined QoQ due to promotional bans in Nigeria and KYC changes in Uganda.  Net debt down INR28b QoQ to INR577b: Net debt declined 4.6% QoQ to INR577b on strong free cash generation. 1QFY15 capex stood at INR39.9b.  Change in segment reporting: BHARTI has made changes to the segment reporting structure. India & South Asia will include 1) Bangladesh and Srilanka operations and 2) Acquisition debt/associated finance cost of Africa business.  Upgrading EBITDA by 4%; TP by 14%; maintain Buy: We are upgrading our EBITDA estimates by ~4%. We expect 14% consolidated EBITDA CAGR over FY14- 16E. The stock trades at proportionate EV/EBITDA of 6.5x FY15E and 5.6x FY16E. Maintain Buy with a revised target price of INR465 (INR410 earlier) based on 6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA for India business (ex towers), 5x EV/EBITDA for Africa, and 15% discount vs fair value for Bharti Infratel (recently upgraded). Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
  • 2. 29 July 2014 2 Bharti Airtel India & South Asia EBITDA up 9% QoQ  India revenue grew 12% YoY and 5.7% QoQ to INR162b (v/s our estimate of INR156.8b).  EBITDA grew 22% YoY and 9.1% QoQ to INR60.2b (v/s our estimate of INR57.2b).  EBITDA margin improved 300bp YoY and 120bp QoQ to 37.2% (v/s our estimate of 36.5%), led by margin expansion in India mobile. India Mobile: EBITDA up 12% QoQ driven by strong all round performance  Mobile revenue increased 9.9% YoY and 5.5% QoQ to INR127.5b (est of INR124.7b).  Mobile EBITDA grew 25.1% YoY and 11.7% QoQ to INR47.1b (est of INR44b).  EBITDA margin improved ~450bp YoY and ~200bp QoQ to 36.9%.  RPM increased 5.7% YoY and 3.5% QoQ to 46.5p vs our est of 45.6p.  Mobile traffic grew 4.8% YoY and 2.3% QoQ to 271b minutes, above our estimate of 269b minutes.  Data continued to grow strongly with traffic growth of 17% QoQ and data revenue growth of 14% QoQ. Data contribution increased to 12.4% of revenue in 1QFY15 from 11.5% in 4QFY14.  MOU per subscriber declined marginally QoQ to 435 minutes (vs est of 432 minutes).  Mobile ARPU increased 3.1% QoQ to INR202 (vs est of INR197).  Blended monthly churn increased marginally QoQ to 2.7%. Africa: Performance remains muted  Africa revenue increased 1.6% QoQ to USD1,164m (v/s est of USD1,162m).  EBITDA declined 2.3% QoQ to USD283m implying EBITDA margin of 24.3% vs our estimate of 24.6%.  Net loss increased 31% QoQ to ~USD137m (v/s our estimate of USD142m net loss).  Total minutes increased 0.4% QoQ to 28.3b; RPM increased 1.8% QoQ.  Subscriber base declined marginally to 69.1m, impacted by regulatory issues in Nigeria and Uganda. Net debt at INR577b; strong momentum in 3G site additions  Bharti’s net debt declined 4.6% QoQ to INR577b led by strong free cash flow during the quarter. Reported debt does not yet include INR129b spectrum related payments. Net debt/ annualized EBITDA remains comfortable at 1.9x  1QFY15 consolidated capex was ~INR40b implying capex/sales of 17%.  While 2G site additions declined QoQ at ~1,100, 3G sites additions remained strong at ~3,300.
  • 3. 29 July 2014 3 Bharti Airtel Story in Charts India mobile KPIs 190 183 187 189 185 177 185 193 200 192 195 196 202 445 423 419 431 433 417 435 455 455 437 434 437 435 42.8 43.2 44.6 43.8 42.7 42.6 42.6 42.4 44.0 44.0 44.8 44.9 46.5 40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 Mobile ARPU (INR) Mobile MOU (mins) Mobile RPM (p) Source: Company, MOSL Bharti India: YoY mobile traffic growth (%) 16 14 10 9 8 8 10 10 8 7 6 5 5 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 Source: Company, MOSL Bharti India: Mobile traffic and RPM trend -20 -18 -24 -21 -17 -17 -17 -17 -1 -3 5 7 5 3 1.87 1.54 1.17 0.93 0.77 0.64 0.53 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.50 0.52 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E YoY RPM (%) Mobile RPM (INR) Source: Company, MOSL Bharti India: Mobile data traffic 13 16 20 24 27 34 39 47 56 26% 25% 21% 14% 23% 16% 20% 19% 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 Data traffic (b MB) QoQgrowth (%) Source: Company, MOSL Bharti India: Data revenue contribution and ARMB (p) 35 32 29 29 31 30 30 28 28 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 9% 10% 11% 12% 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 Data revenue per MB (p) Data revenue (% of wireless) Source: Company, MOSL
  • 4.   Bharti Airtel Bharti India: Mobile churn rate per month (%)   Source: Company, MOSL  Bharti vs Idea: QoQ India mobile traffic growth (%)  Source: Company, MOSL    India mobile revenue and EBITDA margin  Source: Company, MOSL  Africa revenue and EBITDA margin  Source: Company, MOSL    Bharti: Mobile cell site base and quarterly additions  Source: Company, MOSL Consolidated net debt and net debt/EBITDA  Source: Company, MOSL   Bharti Airtel: SOTP     FY16 EBITDA  (INR B)  Ownership  Proportionate   EBITDA (INR b)  EV/EBITDA  Fair value  (INR b)  Value/Sh  India business (excl. towers)  259  100%  259  6.5  1,680  420  Tower business (15% discount to fair value)     79%        382  96  Africa business  75  90%  68  5.0  339  85  Less FY16 net debt              549  137  Total Value              1,470  465  Shares o/s (b)  4.00                 CMP                 354  Upside (%)                 31  Source: Company, MOSL     6.4 7.2 7.9 8.8 8.8 8.5 5.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.7 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 5 ‐2 1 5 4 ‐2 3 5 2 ‐3 1 4 2 7 ‐2 7 9 5 ‐4 5 8 3 ‐6 4 9 5 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 Bharti ‐ QoQ growth   98.4 97.8 101.8 105.1 104.6 108.9 107.0 110.2 116.0 113.5 116.4 120.8 127.5 34.2%33.7%33.8%34.0% 29.9%30.7% 29.2% 30.6% 32.4%33.5%34.1%34.9% 36.9% 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 India mobile revenue (INR b) EBITDA margin (%) 979 1030 1057 1071 1066 1097 1133 1120 1062 1119 1165 1145 1164 25.2% 26.2%26.7% 27.8% 25.8% 27.1% 26.5% 25.4% 26.7% 26.9% 25.8%25.3% 24.3% 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 Africa mobile revenue (USD m) EBITDA margin (%)   117 118 119 121 126 129 131 134 135 135 137 139 140 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.9 5.1 3.4 2.0 2.3 1.0 0.7 1.7 1.7 1.1 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 Cellsites ('000)  Sites added ('000)  601 645 678 651 656 612 585 586 593 620 582 611 576 2.63 2.77 2.84 2.61 2.99 2.58 2.53 2.42 2.26 2.27 2.05 2.09 1.87 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY14 Net Debt (INR b) Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 29 July 2014 4
  • 5. 29 July 2014 5 Bharti Airtel Bharti Airtel - Consolidated Segment wise Summary as per IFRS (INR m) 1QFY14 4QFY14# 1QFY15# YoY% QoQ% 1QFY15E v/s Est (%) Revenue Mobile 116,013 120,835 127,525 9.9 5.5 124,706 2.3 Telemedia 9,484 10,242 10,705 12.9 4.5 10,362 3.3 Enterprise 14,036 16,305 16,111 14.8 -1.2 16,794 -4.1 Passive Infrastructure 12,832 13,061 13,328 3.9 2.0 13,583 -1.9 Others (incl South Asia) 9,439 10,738 11,065 17.2 3.0 10,611 4.3 Africa 59,475 70,623 69,685 17.2 -1.3 74,067 -5.9 Eliminations -18,639 -19,611 -18,803 0.9 -4.1 -20,894 Consolidated Revenue 202,639 222,193 229,616 13.3 3.3 224,878 2.1 EBITDA Mobile 37,633 42,147 47,061 25.1 11.7 43,964 7.0 Telemedia 3,764 3,816 3,947 4.8 3.4 3,872 1.9 Enterprise 2,765 3,661 3,223 16.6 -12.0 3,660 -11.9 Passive Infrastructure 5,745 6,340 6,073 5.7 -4.2 6,527 -7.0 Others (incl South Asia) 635 730 1,244 95.9 70.4 1,244 0.0 Africa 15,867 17,816 16,958 6.9 -4.8 17,535 -3.3 Eliminations -960 -1,474 -1,306 36.0 -11.4 -1,292 Consolidated EBITDA 65,449 73,066 77,200 18.0 5.7 74,616 3.5 EBITDA margin (%) Mobile 32.4 34.9 36.9 446bps 202bps 35.3 165bps Telemedia 39.7 37.3 36.9 -282bps -39bps 37.4 -50bps Enterprise 19.7 22.5 20.0 31bps -245bps 21.8 -179bps Passive Infrastructure 44.8 48.5 45.6 79bps -298bps 48.1 -249bps International 26.7 25.2 24.3 -234bps -89bps 23.7 66bps Consolidated EBITDA margin 32.3 32.9 33.6 132bps 74bps 33.2 44bps Depreciation and amortization 38,470 39,444 40,365 4.9 2.3 40,462 -0.2 Operating income 26,979 33,622 36,835 36.5 9.6 34,154 7.8 Share of JV/Associate 3,075 1,673 1,578 -48.7 -5.7 1,406 12.3 Net finance cost 11,676 9,911 9,565 -18.1 -3.5 9,431 1.4 Proforma Profit Before Taxes 18,378 25,384 28,848 57.0 13.6 26,128 10.4 Proforma Tax 9,685 13,306 14,629 51.1 9.9 12,844 13.9 Effective Tax Rate (%) 52.7 52.4 50.7 -199bps -171bps 49.2 2bps Proforma Profit After Tax 8,693 12,078 14,219 63.6 17.7 13,284 7.0 Proforma Minority Interest 1,804 128 617 -65.8 382.0 721 -14.4 Proforma Net Profit 6,889 11,950 13,601 97.4 13.8 12,563 8.3 #4QFY14/1QFY15 numbers adjusted for exceptional expense of INR1569m/INR1820m and associated tax impact Source: Company, MOSL India Mobile: Operating Metrics India - Wireless KPIs 1QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 YoY% QoQ% 1QFY15E v/s Est (%) Wireless traffic (b min) 258 265 271 4.8 2.3 269 0.8 RPM (p) 44.0 44.9 46.5 5.7 3.5 45.6 2.1 Subscribers (m) 191 206 209 9.7 1.9 209 0.1 ARPU (INR) 200 196 202 1.1 3.1 197 2.8 MOU (min) 455 437 435 -4.3 -0.4 432 0.8 Monthly churn (%) 3.2 2.4 2.7 -51bps 28bps Voice RPM (p) 36.6 37.2 38.1 4.1 2.5 Non-voice revenue contribution 16.9 17.4 18.2 131bps 80bps Data revenue contribution 8.2 11.5 12.4 422bps 92bps Source: Company, MOSL
  • 6. 29 July 2014 6 Bharti Airtel Bharti Africa: Quarterly Performance (USDm) 1QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 YoY% QoQ% 1QFY15E v/s Est (%) Revenue 1,062 1,145 1,164 9.6 1.6 1,162 -1.5 EBITDA 283 290 283 0.0 -2.3 286 1.5 EBITDA margin (%) 26.7 25.3 24.3 -233bps -98bps 24.6 75bps Depreciation and amortization 219 226 236 8.0 4.6 230 -1.9 EBIT 64 64 47 -27.4 -26.9 55 15.9 Net finance cost 59 122 124 108.7 1.3 139 -12.1 Profit Before Taxes 5 -58 -77 -1647.5 32.1 -84 -30.4 Total Tax 68 68 80 16.4 17.5 70 -2.9 Profit After Tax (before minorities) -63 -127 -157 147.4 23.3 -155 -17.8 Minority Interest -11 -23 -20 75.9 -12.0 -13 81.3 Net Profit -52 -105 -137 162.9 31.0 -142 -26.6 Bharti Africa: KPIs Mobile Subs (m) 64.2 69.4 69.1 7.6 -0.5 71.5 -2.9 Mobile ARPU (USD/month) 5.5 5.5 5.6 2.3 1.9 5.5 0.1 Total Minutes of Use (b mins) 26.0 28.2 28.3 8.8 0.4 28.9 -2.5 Minutes of Use/Sub/Month 134 136 136 1.6 0.0 137 -0.4 Effective Mobile RPM (US Cents) 4.1 4.0 4.1 0.7 1.8 4.0 0.5 Source: Company, MOSL Summary of estimate change FY15E FY16E FY17E Revenue (INR b) Old 930 1018 1096 New 947 1037 1125 Change (%) 1.9 1.9 2.6 EBITDA (INR b) Old 310 351 380 New 322 364 395 Change (%) 3.8 3.8 3.8 EBITDA margin (%) Old 33.4 34.5 34.7 New 34.0 35.1 35.1 Change (bp) 62bps 61bps 40bps Depreciation (INR b) Old 169 188 201 New 169 190 202 Change (%) 0 1 1 Net finance cost (INR b) Old 40 41 34 New 44 46 35 Change (%) 9 10 4 Tax rate (%) Old 49 47 45 New 53 47 43 Change (bp) 332bps -62bps -161bps Net Profit (INR b) Old 51 64 81 New 52 70 91 Change (%) 0.3 9.8 12.6 EPS (INR) Old 12.9 16.0 20.3 New 12.9 17.5 22.8 Change (%) 0.3 9.8 12.6 Source: Company, MOSL
  • 7. 29 July 2014 7 Bharti Airtel Key assumptions and value drivers Mobile segment FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Mobile - India Subs (m) 128 162 181 188 206 218 229 237 YoY (%) 36 27 12 4 9 6 5 4 Average subs (m) 111 145 172 185 197 212 224 233 YoY (%) 42 31 19 8 7 8 5 4 Netadds per month (m) 2.8 2.9 1.6 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 YoY (%) 6 3 -45 -64 150 -26 -20 -16 Total mobile traffic (b min) 610 792 889 968 1,030 1,090 1,149 1,198 YoY (%) 28 30 12 9 6 6 5 4 ARPU (INR/month) 243 201 188 185 194 204 214 221 YoY (%) -25 -17 -6 -1 5 5 5 3 MOU 459 455 431 436 436 428 428 428 YoY (%) -10 -1 -5 1 0 -2 0 0 Mobile RPM (INR) 0.53 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.50 0.52 YoY (%) -17 -17 -1 -3 5 7 5 3 Mobile EBITDA margin (%) 38.7 34.7 33.9 30.1 33.8 37.0 38.8 38.1 Mobile Capex (INR b) 34 59 32 57 42 62 62 61 Mobile Capex/sales (%) 10 16 8 13 9 12 11 10 Mobile - Africa Subs (m) 44 53 64 69 73 81 91 YoY (%) 5 20 20 9 5 12 12 Netadds per month (m) 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.8 ARPU (USD/month) 7.3 7.1 6.3 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 YoY (%) -2 -11 -11 0 -2 -2 Capex (USD b) 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 Capex/Sales (%) 24 37 16 14 15 15 15 EBITDA margin (%) 25 27 26 26 25 25 26 Source: Company, MOSL
  • 8. 29 July 2014 8 Bharti Airtel Business mix Revenue (INR b) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Mobile 331 363 403 431 467 526 581 626 Telemedia 34 36 37 36 39 44 50 54 Enterprise 45 41 45 53 63 67 72 77 Passive Infrastructure 71 86 95 50 51 57 65 73 Others (incl South Asia) 6 10 16 32 41 46 52 57 Africa 0 131 198 240 273 287 304 333 Total revenue 487 667 794 842 934 1026 1124 1219 Eliminations and others -68 -72 -80 -73 -77 -78 -87 -94 Consolidated revenue 418 595 715 769 857 947 1037 1125 YoY% 13 42 20 8 11 10 10 8 EBITDA (INR b) Mobile 128 126 137 130 158 195 225 239 Telemedia 15 16 16 15 15 16 18 19 Enterprise 13 10 8 9 14 14 16 16 Passive Infrastructure 25 32 36 23 23 26 30 34 Others (incl South Asia) -10 -10 -9 -2 2 5 6 7 Africa 0 29 53 63 71 71 75 86 Total EBITDA 170 202 240 236 282 327 370 401 Eliminations and others -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -5 -6 -7 Consolidated EBITDA 168 200 237 233 278 322 364 395 YoY% 11 19 19 -2 19 16 13 8 Capex (INR b) Mobile 34 59 32 57 42 62 62 61 Telemedia 10 8 8 3 4 3 3 4 Enterprise 12 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 Others (incl South Asia) 16 14 9 11 13 21 13 13 Passive infrastructure 12 23 14 11 8 10 11 12 Africa 0 36 76 39 38 42 46 50 Consolidated capex 83 143 140 122 106 139 136 141 YoY% -41 71 -2 -13 -13 31 -3 4 Capex/Sales (%) 20 24 20 16 12 15 13 12 Source: Company, MOSL
  • 9. 29 July 2014 9 Bharti Airtel Bharti Airtel: an investment profile Company description Bharti Airtel is an integrated telecom operator with presence in wireless, fixed-line and broadband, long distance, enterprise, and passive infrastructure services across India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Africa. Bharti is the largest Indian wireless operator with revenue market share of ~31% and population coverage of 86%. Bharti is the third largest wireless company globally by subscribers. Key investment arguments  Bharti continues to maintain its wireless leadership in India with a wireless subscriber share of ~21% and adjusted revenue share of ~31%.  Bharti is well positioned to capture rural growth by leveraging its deep coverage and favorable frequency allocation.  Bharti has the highest investment in data spectrum among Indian telecom operators Key investment risks  Overbidding in upcoming spectrum auctions  Potential market disruption from entry of a well- funded operator like Reliance Industries into the Indian telecom market  High forex risk given exposure to significant USD denominated debt Recent developments  Bharti Airtel/subsidiaries have entered into agreements for the divestment of over 3,100 telecom towers in four countries across Africa operations to Helios Towers Africa/subsidiaries (HTA). Bharti’s subsidiaries will have access to a dedicated portion of the towers from HTA under long term lease contracts. Valuation & View  We are upgrading our EBITDA estimates by ~4%. We expect 14% consolidated EBITDA CAGR over FY14- 16E. The stock trades at proportionate EV/EBITDA of 6.5x FY15E and 5.6x FY16E. Maintain Buy with a revised target price of INR465 (INR410 earlier) based on 6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA for India business (ex towers), 5x EV/EBITDA for Africa, and 15% discount vs fair value for Bharti Infratel (recently upgraded). Comparative valuations Bharti Airtel Idea RCOM P/E (x) FY15E 27.4 16.7 30.4 FY16E 20.2 18.2 11.8 EV/EBITDA (x) FY15E 6.5 6.4 7.3 FY16E 5.6 6.7 5.9 EV/Sales (x) FY15E 2.1 2.2 2.7 FY16E 1.9 2.3 2.2 P/BV (x) FY15E 2.0 2.3 0.9 FY16E 1.8 2.1 0.9 EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR) MOSL Forecast Consensus Forecast Variation (%) FY15 12.9 13.2 -2.3 FY16 17.5 16.7 5.0 Target price and recommendation Current Price (INR) Target Price (INR) Upside (%) Reco 354 410 15.8 Buy Shareholding pattern (%) Jun-14 Mar-14 Jun-13 Promoter 65.4 65.3 65.2 DII 7.2 7.8 8.2 FII 17.7 16.4 16.2 Others 9.7 10.5 10.4 Stock performance (1-year)
  • 10. 29 July 2014 10 Bharti Airtel Financials and valuation
  • 11. 29 July 2014 11 Bharti Airtel N O T E S
  • 12. 29 July 2014 12 Bharti Airtel Disclosures This research report has been prepared by MOSt to provide information about the company(ies) and sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies). This report is for personal information of the select recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your general information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. This report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. 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