Presentation by Tony Magee, ATOC Passenger Demand Forecasting Scheme Manager

1. Rail Passenger Demand Forecasting A View from the Industry Tony Magee Passenger Demand Forecasting Scheme Manager Presented to: ITS Masters Students November 2014

2. Passenger Demand Since the Beginning
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The Passenger Railway since the beginning - Passenger Miles and Journeys
Passenger miles, millions (LHS)
Passenger journeys, millions (RHS)

3. ITS November 2014
What is the GB Rail Industry?
Who are ATOC and the PDFC?
The origins of the PDFH
What the PDFH has helped to achieve so far

4. ITS November 2014
Some examples of where PDFH was used
Comparing PDFH and TP approaches
Some areas to be improved on
Some more nice charts and a picture!

5. Franchised Passenger
Freight
Operators and Owning Groups

6. The Rail Industry Structure
Freight
Passenger
Specifiers
Regulator
Operators
Suppliers
National Safety & Standards Body
System Authority?
(ROSCOs)
OEMs
Customer
Consultancies
Overhaulers

7. Passenger
Freight
Who is a part of the ATOC?

8. What is ATOC?
•ATOC is a trade organisation
•ATOC's mission is to work for passenger rail operators in serving customers and supporting a prosperous railway
•ATOC incorporates:
•Rail Settlement Plan (Ticketing)
•National Rail Enquiries (Customer Information)
•Commercial Activities (Including the PDF Scheme)
•Rail Staff Travel

9. The Passenger Demand Forecasting Scheme
•The PDF Scheme is a part of ATOC with its own full time Manager and Governing body:
•The PDF Scheme Manager
•Passenger Demand Forecasting Executive (PDFE)
•Passenger Demand Forecasting Council (PDFC)

10. Who are a part of the Passenger Demand Forecasting Council (PDFC)?
It is similar to a club with a fee paying membership: Full Members
•All the Train Operating Companies (TOCs)
•The Department for Transport (Rail Executive)
•Transport Scotland & the Welsh Government (Devolved)
• The Office of Rail Regulation (ORR)
•Transport for London (TfL)
•Passenger Transport Executive Group (PTEG)
•Associate Members
•Industry Consultants, the larger orgs but also the smaller
•The proportion of overseas Associates is growing

11. The interest shared by the Membership
Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH)
•The PDFH is unique in the world
•The envy of other national railway planning organisations
•The above also applies to our LENNON ticket sales data

12. The interest shared by the Membership
•Screen shot of the web-based version first page

13. The Origins of the PDFH

14. The Origins of the PDFH
•PDFH came about in June 1986 (Bitish Rail [BR] Policy Unit)
•Replaced British Rail Passenger Forecasts (June 1982)
•The central aim was to provide a consistent and solid basis for investment appraisal
•Also pricing and service planning across BR
•Supporting well founded investment proposals at Dept for Transport
•Contained 55 references and similar to current structure

15. The Origins of the PDFH
“The Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook is intended to assist managers who are making decisions about investment and service planning. It attempts to bring together all the sources of evidence on the responsiveness of passenger demand for rail travel to changes in a large number of attributes.
In doing this, the Handbook provides the best estimates, at this point in time, of the influence of these attributes. It does not provide a once and for all answer. It is expected that as research continues, modification will become necessary”

16. The history the PDFH
•Was first intended as an evidence base (with updates)
•First Edition June 1986 (Policy Unit - John Segal)
•Second Edition June 1989 (Policy Unit - Dave Shilton)
•Third Edition April 1997 (PDFSS - Mike Lampkin/Rail Operational Research)
•National Passenger Demand Forecasting Framework 1999 (ATOC/Railtrack- D. Shilton/SDG)
•Fourth Edition 2002 (PDFC – C. Nash/ITS Leeds)
•Fifth Edition 2009 (PDFC – J. Segal/MVA)
•Version 5.1. 2013 (PDFC - J. Segal/MVA & M. Wardman)
•Version 6.0? – To Follow

17. What PDFH has achieved so far
The PDFS/PDFC demand forum has:
•Proactively supported research, ultimately responsive to outside evidence
•Exploited large amounts of ticket sales data for analytical purposes
•Helped pioneer the use of SP in transport planning in UK
•Now 278 references in PDFH Section E
•Transparent and easy to apply and update method
•No “black boxes” in PDFH
•All studies involve a panel of experts from industry

18. What PDFH has achieved so far
•UK prices elasticities
•167 studies and 1633 elasticities
• Rail ticket sales: 66 (40%) studies and 931 (57%) elasticities
•UK time elasticities
•377 time elasticities from 69 studies
•Rail ticket sales: 44 (64%) studies and 263 (70%) elasticities
•UK valuations of time related attributes
•1619 valuations from 203 studies
•303 (19%) from 56 (28%) studies commissioned by Railway Industry

19. Some examples of where PDFH was used
•DfT and TS - NMF, RIFF, HLOS and franchise bids
•Incorporated into DfT WebTAG guidance
•Underpins EDGE (DfT exogenous forecasting model)
•Bidders for franchises
•TOCs for investment/service enhancements/pricing
•Network Rail in RUSs and in investment appraisal
•Local Authorities for investment appraisal
•Competition Commission
•ORR and Network Rail use it for performance regime calcs
•It provides the elasticities in MOIRA and other rail models
•To improve High Speed Rail mode choice models!

20. PDFH
•GJT and fare elasticities
•Connection time = Train Time and large interchange penalty
•Large income elasticities
•Elasticities applied to existing demand (incremental)
•Transparent properties and easily updated
Transport Planning
•Generalised Cost/Time
•Double weight connection time and low interchange penalty
•Lower income elasticities
•Significant data requirements and model parameters
•Properties of models not always readily transparent or easily updated
Comparing the PDFH and TP approaches

21. Some areas to be improved on:
•Ticket Sales Data
•NPAAS 1972-1985 (the largest data base outside the Pentagon)
•LENNON – 1 year by date; 2 years by week; 5 years of four- weekly data; 10 years by annual
•Ticket Sales Data in Travelcard areas
•No archiving/pooling of data used in many studies
•Historic data on competition
•Historic and detailed data on reliability and crowding

22. Some areas to be improved on:
•Too many studies not had the resources to “bottom the issue”
•Dynamic behavioural adjustments (although we have tried)
•Not exploited outside/matching funding opportunities enough
•Short term/parochial focus at times
•Separate world to disaggregate modelling
•Not exploited Census, NTS, GIS, ‘Before and After’ monitoring much yet
•Catchment area analysis - People don’t travel station-to- station but O to D
•Fresh blood and ideas

23. Some research areas to be explored further
•Better understanding of ticket competition (is volume being achieved but at the expense of revenue losses)?
•How will new technology impact on rail demand?
•To understand better how the elasticities central to PDFH vary:
•with the competitive situation;
•with levels that they take;
•importantly, with the levels other variables take;
•between the short- and the long-run (how long is the L-R?)
•Bridge the Gap with other modelling approaches
•Exploit different and new data sources to fill gaps and enhance understanding

24. Please bring on the charts and the picture!

25. Perception of the Railway Industry
Three train signallers 'hold key to rail chaos'
The Great Christmas Travel Getaway is hit as floods, signal failures and animals on rail tracks cause chaos for holidaying Britons
Talk about cattle class! COW on the tracks brings rush hour train services to a standstill for two hours
Public perception of the rail industry

26. Punctuality

27. Overall satisfaction Vs Punctuality (PPM)
Satisfaction vs Punctuality

28. Passenger satisfaction – Punctuality & Reliability
Satisfaction – Punctuality & Reliability

29. Passenger Journeys
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1960/61 65/66 70/71 75/76 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 2010/11
Passenger journeys per year (m)
Journeys Since 1960

30. The result - services are busier than ever before

31. Why Rail?
•A career in rail will offer opportunities to:
–Be involved in massive investment programmes
–Rise through the ranks quickly
–Develop and deploy leading edge solutions
–Earn good pay and benefits
–Get responsibility very early in career
–Be involved in a huge breadth of activity – can follow your interests within one industry
–Opportunities for technical specialism or business management
–Work is often fun – rail has a sense of identity, humour and purpose