Guest presentation by Dr Michele Dix, Managing Director of Crossrail 2 (crossrail2.co.uk). Presented at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, Feb. 2016. [Copyright TfL, reproduced here with permission].

1. Planning for the Future – Crossrail 2
Leeds University – 17 February 2016
Michele Dix, Managing Director

2. TfL’s purpose
• Meet the rising expectations of
our customers and users
• Plan ahead to meet the
challenges of a growing
population
• Unlock economic
development and growth
Keep London working
and growing and make
life in London better

3. What we do
Number of journeys made in London in 2013/14
2.4 bn
Buses
1.5 m
Dial-a-ride
Rivers
8.6 m
Santander cycles
8.2 m
Emirates Air Line
DLR
101.6
m
205.3 m
London Overground
135.7
m
Tramlink
31.2
m
1.26 bn
London Underground
Cycling
Taxi and PHV
147.5
m
3.65 bn
Roads (minus
Taxi/PHV)
1.4 m
More than 30 million journeys every
day
Public transport mode share for London
has increased by 10.6% since 2000
We are delivering one of the world's
largest
investment programmes
We manage 580km of London's busiest roads
and all
6,200 traffic signals
We regulate taxis and private hire
trade
£200bn of freight is moved on London's
roads every year
We operate the Congestion Charging and
Low Emission Zone

4. The Role of Mayoral Strategies
Democratic accountability and transparency

5. The Mayor's Transport Strategy – 2010 Objectives

6. Sources of funding – 2015/16
Total income £11bn
42% 17% 8% 6% 20% 7%
Fares Grant Crossrail grant Commercial and
Congestion
Charge
Cash
and
borrowing
Business
Rate
Retention

7. Where the money is spent – 2015/16
All income is spent on running and improving transport
services. Because of this, there is no 'retained profit'.
Investmen
t
Running the
network
£11b
n
34
%
66
%

8. London is growing

9. Ensuring population growth is productive growth
London is already one of the most densely inhabited and productive world
cities and therefore vital to the UK economy – its growth will be
accommodated by further increasing the density of new development.
1.6m
New
Londoners
0.6
m
New jobs
Population Employment

10. Billions more trips on public transport and roads
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2029 2030
million
residents
billion
trips
11bn annual trips in
2030
London's population: 10m in
2030

11. Opportunities across London
Opportunity
AreaArea for Intensification

12. Transport investment
We are delivering one of the largest and most complex programmes of
transport capital investment in the world
£4bn Roads Modernisation Programme
Europe’s largest infrastructure project, Crossrail
Tube and Rail Modernisation Programme
£900m Cycling Vision

13. Five major schemes: to
enable growth, movement
and rejuvenate public space
A total of 169 smaller
schemes to improve our
roads
12 key junction
improvements addressing
safety
Signal modernisation:
dynamic control cuts
delays by 12% at junctions
Modernisation and
maintenance of 1,800
bridges and 12 tunnels,
9,000,000m2 of
carriageway, 1,000+ miles
of footways and cycle
lanes
Our Capital Programme – optimising

14. Example: Old Street £17m investment
£26.5m user benefits
£32.6m local property value increase
(estimated benefits due to improved urban
realm in addition to positive standard
cost-benefit analysis)
Investing in the urban realm

15. Our plan will deliver a 5% bus network
capacity increase
89% of London’s business leaders
think there should be funding to
keep bus fares affordable across
London
Sustaining the bus network

16. Health impacts of poor air quality will become more challenging as
London grows and becomes increasingly dense.
We have already taken a number of steps in recent years to reduce transport-related
emissions, including:
Lo
London-wide Low Emission Zone
Ultra Low Emission Zone
Congestion Charge
Taxi age limits
Cleaner buses
Ultra Low Emission Vehicle Infrastructure
Sustainable Transport
Mayor’s Air Quality Fund
Air quality – action for health

17. • Today 25% of our Tube stations are step-
free from street to platform
• By 2024 56% of all our stations will be
step-free
• All our buses and the DLR are accessible
• Our investment includes accessibility
features as standard in new rolling stock,
buses, station upgrades, roads schemes
and urban realm improvements that will
support more independent travel by
disabled people
Accessibility – access to opportunities

18. • New walk-through, higher-capacity
trains on the District line
• 36 trains per hour on the Victoria, Jubilee &
• Northern lines
• Major station transformations at
Tottenham Court Road , Bond
Street, Victoria, Bank, Holborn &
Camden
• The Northern line Extension
• Signalling modernisation for
faster, more frequent trains on
the District, Circle, Metropolitan
&Hammersmith & City lines
Desk fans used to cool Earl's Court signalling equipment,
2015
Nearly all (99%) London business leaders
think the Tube modernisations should be a
priority
Our Capital Programme – Tube
modernisation

19. Once completed it will
deliver:
• 60 per cent increase
in capacity on the line
• Around 100 new
trains
• At least 33 trains per
hour
Our Capital Programme – Piccadilly line upgrade

20. Improvements are being
delivered now but new
investment and trains will
come post 2025
Bakerloo and Central line investment

21. 50% of Night Bus users are going to or from work
Night Bus use has increased 170% since 2000
£360m boost to the economy
At least 2,000 new jobs
Night Tube – transforming the night-time economy

22. Improving existing networks is essential but new
links are also needed
198
1
199
9
198
7
201
9
Transport links at Canary Wharf
New road
links Buses
DLR
Jubilee
Crossrail

23. Only integrated plans can unlock growth
Example OpportunityAreas
Vauxhall Nine Elms – 24,000 new jobs, 16,000
new homes
• Roads improvements
• Reconfiguring bus routes
• Station capacity upgrade
• New Tube Extension
Barking Riverside – 10,800 new homes
• High-quality new bus service
• Road investment
• New rail extension

24. Future infrastructure projects
• The next big infrastructure projects to drive continued economic growth in
London and across the UK are schemes with the potential to unlock new homes
and jobs in areas of London with major development capacity
• Crossrail 2 is an immediate priority
East London river
crossings
Tram
extensions
Bakerloo line
extension
Road
tunnels

25. 25
Crossrail 2 – what role does it play
• A brand new railway line, serving
London and the wider South East.
• Over 70km of tunnel would connect
the existing National Rail networks in
Surrey and Hertfordshire, through
central London. 51 stations served
directly by Crossrail 2 services
• High frequency: trains up to every
120 seconds (30 trains per hour) in
central core
• Provides additional rail capacity for
270,000 people to travel into central
London during the peak period
• Construction could start in 2020, with
the scheme open around 2030
• Joint TfL/Network Rail project

26. Year Output Outcome
1944 GLP Concept of a cross London tunnelled rail service
introduced.
1974 London Rail
Study
Chelsea-Hackney Underground line identified as possible
scheme to serve future demand
1989 Central London
Rail Study
Continued support for Chelsea-Hackney line as part of
wider need for additional rail capacity
1991 Safeguarding Chelsea-Hackney line adopted and directions issued
2000 London East-
West study
Recommended further study to look into feasibility of
Chelsea-Hackney to be delivered post-Crossrail
2002-
2008
Continued
investigation
Ongoing engineering feasibility, planning and
optioneering work on Chelsea-Hackney line.
2008 Crossrail Royal
Assent
Crossrail Bill becomes a Parliamentary Act
2008 Safeguarding
refresh
Safeguarding directions for Chelsea-Hackney line
updated
2009 DfT requests
Mayor &TfL
review scheme
TfL to review case for scheme, identifying new options in
light of emerging London transport (MTS) and land-use
(London Plan) policy, and to refresh safeguarding
2010 /
2011
TfL and NR
policy support
MTS supports new rail capacity in SW-NE corridor. NR
emphasise in South East RUS crowding on SWML and
WAML could be reduced by Crossrail 2
Crossrail 2 – A potted history
26

27. Crossrail 2: Route options long list
Tottenham Court Road
Angel
Charing
Cross
Piccadilly Circus
Victoria
Vauxhall
King’s
Cross
Euston
King’s Road
Essex
Road
Stoke
Newington
Dalston
Junction Hackney
Central-Downs
Finsbury Park
Alexandra Palace
Seven
Sisters
Clapham
Junction
City
Thameslink
Moorgate-Liverpool Street
Cambridge Heath
Balham Streatham Hill
Clapham North
Streatham
Norbury
Crystal Palace
Beckhenham Junction
Tooting
Broadway
Earlsfield
Mitcham
Town Centre
Harringay
Wandsworth
Central
Parsons Green
East Putney
Mitcham
Junction
Norwood Junction
Thornton
Heath Pond
West
Croydon
East Croydon
Waddon
Wimbledon
Sutton
Epsom Downs
Wallington
Motspur
Park
Raynes Park
Surbiton
Roehampton
Epsom
Chessington
South
Wimbledon Park
Kingston
Shepperton Teddington
Hampton Court
Woking
Walton-on-Thames
Weybridge
Wood
Green
Stevenage
Hertford North
Enfield Chase
Tottenham
Hale
Enfield
Town
Edmonton
Green
Cheshunt
Hertford East
Broxbourne
Chingford
Walthamstow
Central
Homerton
Leytonstone
Stratford
South Woodford
Woodford
Loughton
Epping
Barking
Dagenham Dock
Pitsea
Tilbury
Grays
2008 Safeguarded route
Route option in existingrail corridor
Route option in new rail corridor
Some stations omitted for clarity
Clapton
Hornsey
Hoxton
Colliers
Wood

28. Crossrail 2: Route options short-listing
Long-list assessment
Optimise
New shortlist
Metro Option
Regional Option
Safeguarded route (2008)
Safeguarded
Option

29. It will help address the UK’s productivity
• The UK produces significantly less
per hour worked than our main
economic rivals. If we do not
address this, national economic
growth could stall and
improvements to living standards
could be held back
• Cities offer a solution to this
productivity challenge because they
cluster activity together, improving
efficiency
• To do this and grow the economy, cities need access to a large
workforce

30. It will help address the transport challenge
• Despite the major investment
programme underway, growth is
putting pressure on the transport
network and could stall long-term
economic growth
• Demand for National Rail services into
Waterloo is set to increase by 40 per
cent between today and 2043, and by a
similar level across the Tube network
• Severe crowding on the London and South East rail network could
double by 2041
• Problem particularly severe in the morning peak

31. It will help address the housing challenge
• London Plan seeks to meet a need of 49,000 new homes / year but up to 63,000 pa
necessary to address backlog.
• GLA SHLAA identifies sufficient land up to 2025 but shortfall thereafter (land for
additional 500,000 homes needs to be identified)
• ONS projections identify need for ~57,000 additional houses in non-London CR2
Borough’s up to 2037.
• ONS projections identify need for ~1.5m new houses to be delivered in London and
CR2 counties up to 2037
• Cumulative impact will require fundamental review of how cross boundary growth is
planned for – supported by cross-border infrastructure schemes
Cumulative London
Plan housing targets
versus identified
capacity

32. It will help address the housing challenge
• Too few homes are being built across the South East and future growth is threatened by a
housing shortage
• Part of the solution to building more homes is improving transport links to under-developed
areas to make sites more attractive to developers
Housing development in Woolwich,
unlocked by Crossrail

33. Crossrail 2 seeks to address these challenges
and secure long-term economic growth
REGION-WIDE
• Supporting new jobs
• Improving journeys to, from
& across the transport network
• Maintain and enhance
environmental quality
• Accommodate housing growth
THE NORTH EAST
• Maximising housing growth
and regeneration in
opportunity areas like Upper
Lea Valley and beyond
CENTRAL LONDON
• Intensify and grow London’s Central
Activities Zone (CAZ) by increasing
employment density
• Reduce levels of congestion and
crowding on travel services
• Ensure adequate connectivity
between HS2 and surrounding region
THE SOUTH WEST
• Reduce levels of congestion
on key services and at key
stations, particularly on
South West Mainline

34. Enables the development of up
to 200,000 new homes
Supports up to 200,000 new jobs
in London and the wider South
East
Supports 60,000+ construction
sector and supply chain jobs
across the UK
Crossrail 2 - Economic benefits
• Analysis by KPMG shows that it could add
up to £102bn to the UK’s GVA, providing
new tax revenues that would payback the
Government’s investment
• Could generate housing land value
uplift (HVU) of £15bn

35. Economic benefits
Crossrail 2’s supply chain
would stretch around the
UK
Support 60,000 jobs around
the country
SMEs could benefit from
more than £5bn spend
Would support hundreds of
apprenticeships

36. The UK has a productivity gap. Increased productivity
occurs with increased employment densities
Source: Volterra
Source: Office of National Statistics
(ONS)
Productivity vs Employment
Density.
UK Cities, 2008-2012
The UK’s Productivity compared to G7
countries (GDP per hour worked)

37. Applying the principles of ‘TIEP’ shows that the Regional
Scheme could deliver up to £102bn of net national GVA
benefits.
- Land Use Transport Interaction (LUTI) modelling supports this
conclusion
Summary net national present value GVA scenarios
(£bn, 2011 prices, discounted to 2015)
Source: National GVA Impacts, KPMG, 2015

38. • Transform travel across London and the wider South East, providing
direct train services to destinations across the region
• Provides new rail capacity for 270,000 people to access central
London during peak periods, helping relieve crowding and congestion
on the transport network
Crossrail 2 – Transport benefits
• Significantly improve step-free
access across the rail network
• Significant journey time benefits for
a wide range of journeys

39. Transport benefits
Crossrail 2 would transform
travel across London and
the wider South East,
providing direct train
services to destinations
across the region. This
would benefit places from
Southampton to the Wash

40. The Crossrail 2 Growth Commission
Crossrail 2 is not just about building a
railway.
The work of the Growth Commission is to:
• Identify the ambitions of local
authorities and key stakeholders along
the route
• Ensure that these ambitions are
aligned with the design of the railway
(eg. station entrances and exits facing
the right way !)
• Understand local infrastructure needs
which could help unlock additional
Crossrail 2 related development
• Identify potential partnership and
delivery arrangements
• Advise on implications of growth
ambitions on London Plan revisions
• Report in Spring 2016

41. Of the Crossrail 2 regional scheme’s £28.7bn cost, a
contribution of at least half from local sources remains
feasible
Source: Crossrail 2 Financial Review, PWC, 2015
11.6%
20.3%
16.9%
6.3% 1.4% 56.5% 12.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Operating
surplus
Business Rates
Supplement
Mayoral CIL Resale of Land
and Property
Council Tax
Precept
Total London
Contribution
National Rail
Abstraction
%oftotalfundingrequirement
Sources of Funding for Crossrail 2
(as % of total funding requirement)
Assumes
RPI+0 to
2020 then
RPI+0.5
Assume 50%
real terms
recovery of
L&P cost
Based on P80
cost (circa 47%
contingency)
Further
work
needed
Assumes
doubled rate
and
increased
housebuildin
g

42. Further funding options
Potential incremental Stamp Duty
receipts to exchequer of circa £20bn,
including circa £5bn on additional
homes unlocked (remainder on existing
stock).
Devolution of business rates recently
announced offers potential to capture
growth
Options considered in PWC’s initial
work but not progressed include:
• Employment tax
• Hotel bed levy
• Greenfield development
• Fares increases

43. 12%
20%
17%
6% 1%
56%
84%
156%
212%
13%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Operating
surplus
Business Rates
Supplement
Mayoral CIL Resale of Land
and Property
Council Tax
Precept
Total (existing
mechanisms)
Lower bound
exchequer
impact
Upper bound
exchequer
impact
Total (incl
exchequer
impact)
National Rail
Abstraction
%oftotalfundingrequirement
Sources of Funding for Crossrail 2
(as % of total funding requirement)
By integrating the strategic and financial cases,
the scheme more than covers its costs
Direct London
contribution
Indirect London
contribution

44. A programme for delivery: challenging but
achievable – provided there is a clear
commitment and funding to develop the scheme
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
5-6 Year Development Phase 10-12 Year Delivery Phase Operations
Key milestones:
•Public consultation – Autumn 2015
•National Infrastructure Commission – March 2016
•Submit powers application – 2017/18
•Start construction – 2020/21
•First Crossrail 2 service – 2030/31