Presented by Mark Howden at the ISPC Science Forum 2016, Addis Ababa, 12-14 April 2016

1. Challenges
ahead as a
result of climate
change: what
works and how
has the
challenge
changed?
Mark Howden
ANU Climate Change Institute
Addis Ababa, 12-14 April 2016

2. ANU CCI / ANU ECI Porter et al. 2014
Impacts of climate change on major crop yield
increasingly understood
• High level of variation and uncertainty
• Limited range of adaptations assessed
• Issues not included (e.g. pests and diseases, climate
variability), timescales problematic

3. ANU CCI / ANU ECI Porter et al. 2014
Yield variability likely to increase

4. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• livestock
• minor and ‘orphan’ crops
• nutrition and quality aspects
• value chains
• social norms and institutional arrangements
• less is known of the stability dimension of food
security than availability and access
• these gaps often align with issues most
important to poor people and to less-developed
regions
• the likelihood of rapidly closing these gaps
seems low
Limitations and gaps

5. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
From research to an operational system
Lacey et al. 2014, Howden et al. 2013

6. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• the consequence of not matching genetics,
management or strategy to the climate is either
underperformance and/or increasing risk
• often single, simple, technical and short-term
adaptations to existing systems with little
attention to the more complex, compound, highly
contextual, strategic, tacit, socially and
institutionally-mediated changes that often
characterise real-world change processes
• Link to mitigation and other dimensions of
change
Adaptation: a ‘no-brainer’ often not well-covered

7. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• Subtle pressures to focus on existing systems
only may result in maladaptation
– and in missed opportunities
• Need to consider more systemic and
transformational adaptations
– increasingly so as changes continue
Incremental Systemic
Transformational
Howden et al. (2010), Rickards and Howden (2012), Vermuelen et al. (2013), Ripphe et al. (2016)
Comprehensiveness: More than incremental

8. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• Relative advantage
• Compatibility
• Complexity or simplicity
• Trialability
• Observability
• All challenging if framed as only for future risk
• Therefore need to focus on existing systems and
managing climate variability and trends and
integrating with other issues
• Address path-dependency
Rogers (1962)
Designing better adoption paths

9. ANU CCI / ANU ECIHowden et al. 2004, Crimp et al. 2016
Ignore 100-year Decadal -
Adaptive
Mean gross margin (Wagga) $119/ha +$8/ha +$17/ha
Mean gross margin (Emerald) $34/ha -$5/ha +$18/ha
50s
60s
70s
80s
00s
Adapting to trends in frost risk is profitable

10. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
2007 2009 2011 2012
 no cultivation, no-
till and stubble
retention
 guidance systems
 press wheels for
water harvesting
 inter-row sowing
 opportunity
cropping
 less canola and
pulses
 hay
 soil testing for N
and water
 sowing by the
calendar not on
moisture (dry
sowing)
 containment
areas for
livestock
 low P rates and
N only just in
time
 postpone
machinery
purchases
 no burning of
stubbles
 shorter season
and heat
tolerant
varieties
 variable sowing
rate
 improve sheep
production
 canola only on
soil moisture
 bought and
leased more
light (sandy)
country
 concentrate on
marketing
(futures and
foreign
exchange rates)
 decrease debt
 off-farm income
 reduce costs
 improve harvest
efficiency
 simplify all
operations
 larger
paddocks –
easier
management
 improve
labour
efficiency
 improve
financial
management
 requirement
for more
information
and
knowledge
Crimp et al. 2012
The climate adaptation journey

11. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
A. Incremental
adaptor
B. Transformational adaptor
Social norms and social learning is important
Dowd et al. (2014) reflecting Rogers (1962), Becker (1970), Granovetter (1973)

12. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
A. Incremental
adaptor
B. Transformational
adaptor
Dowd et al. (2014)
Information networks

13. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
FUTURE IMPACTS?
CURRENT
IMPACTS Sudden
demand
for
alternative
product
stream
Less
predictabl
e farming
conditions
Road
closures
and
disruption
s
Increased
energy
costs
Increased
demand
for low-
carbon
products
Increased
fuel costs
Non-viable
farming
regions
Worker
heat
stress
Increased
pressures
for low-
carbon
New
varieties;
variation in
quality
Lim Camacho et al. 2014
• Climate issues integrated with other issues/opportunities
Look at food systems and value chains

14. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• potential conflicts of interest (e.g. disciplinary bias,
researchers advocating their own research, preferencing
career metrics over value to decision-makers)
• mechanical adherence to quantitative modelling and focus
on the explicit rather than the tacit
• mis-representation of research results as uncontroversial
inputs into the operational decision-making of end-users
• lack of unbiased and comprehensive communication of
the diverse options and the benefits/risks associated with
them
• lack of awareness of the very different relationship a
researcher and a decision-maker have to the adaptation
decision itself in relation to risk and responsibility
• lack of clarity between research and operational aspects
Ethics in research
Lacey et al. 2015

15. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
Summary: real, robust, options, talk

16. Thankyou
Prof Mark Howden
ANU Climate Change Institute
mark.howden@anu.edu.au
+61 2 6125 7266
Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II