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Possible futures
                                Possible futures for the internet




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Where are we now?
         •    The internet is using IPv4
         •    But... no more IPv4 addresses
                 – Global       pool (IANA) is empty
                 – European        pool (RIPE NCC) will be empty soon
                       – Internet   providers will run out
                       – Enterprises   can not get any IPv4 addresses
         •    The internet can not continue to grow
         •    At least not in the way we are used to...


 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                           2
torsdag 26. mai 2011
The original plan




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011   3
torsdag 26. mai 2011
!"#$%&'($!)*+,-./+$&0*+$$1$2345$
         Now looking like...

                                              IPv4 Pool Size


                          Size of the Internet



                                 IPv6 Transition – Dual Stack


                                              IPv6 Deployment
                                                                              12 months!
                       2004            2006             2008           2010       2012
                                                                Date


 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                              4
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility one
         •    We continue as we do today
                 – IPv4   is used for all communication
                 – Almost       no IPv6 deployment




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                             5
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility one - what will happen?
         •    As long as there is demand growth will be forced
         •    Users now usually get one IPv4 address
                 – Their   router is fully connected to the internet
                 – The   PC’s are not, but can work through the router
                 – The   user has control over the router
         •    But there will not be enough IPv4 addresses to
              continue to give every user his/her own
              address...


 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                            6
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility one - what will happen?
         •    As long as there is demand growth will be forced
         •    Users will have to share an IPv4 address
                 – Their   router is no longer fully connected to the internet
                 – The   ISP can only offer partial service
                 – The   user has no control anymore




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                    7
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility one - the consequences
         •    Is this a bad thing? Yes!
                 – Performance       will degrade
                 – More    complex » more failures
                 – Privacy      issues


                 – IPv4   address ≠ one user/customer
                       – Lawful   intercept will be difficult
                       – Finding   abusers will be next to impossible



 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                           8
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility one - the consequences
         •    What will still work?
                 – Browsing      websites, but slower
                 – Sending      and retrieving e-mail


         •    What won’t work?
                 – Voice   over IP / Skype
                 – Running      your own server (web, e-mail, etc)
                 – Peer-to-peer     connections (sharing, gaming, talking, ...)
                 – Innovation,    new applications, ...

 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                     9
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility two
         •    Websites and other servers continue to use IPv4
                 – Not     so many addresses needed for servers
         •    Users get IPv6 connections
                 – Still   need IPv4 to reach websites and other servers...




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                 10
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility two - what will happen?
         •    Users still need IPv4 to reach servers
                 – Users     will have to share an IPv4 address
         •    Users will also get an IPv6 connection
                 – IPv6     can be used to communicate with others that
                       also have IPv6
                 – Plenty    of addresses to use without limitation
                 – This    will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                      11
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility two - the consequences
         •    Is this a bad thing? Yes! (but a bit less bad)
                 – IPv4   services will still have the same problems:
                       – Performance   will degrade, more complex » more
                        failures, privacy issues, lawful intercept will be
                        difficult, finding abusers will be next to impossible
                 – IPv6   provides a way to do more:
                       – Voiceover IP / Skype, running your own server,
                        peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new
                        applications, ...


 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                 12
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility three
         •    Most websites and other servers become
              available over IPv6
                 – Their    IPv4 connection also remains
         •    Users get IPv6 connections
                 – Still    need IPv4 to reach the websites and servers that
                       are late with IPv6 deployment...




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                  13
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility three - what will happen?
         •    Users still need IPv4 to reach a few servers
                 – Users     will have to share an IPv4 address
                 – The     majority of traffic won’t need this though
         •    Users will also get an IPv6 connection
                 – IPv6    can be used to access most websites / servers
                 – IPv6     can be used to communicate with others that
                       also have IPv6
                 – Plenty    of addresses to use without limitation
                 – This    will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6

 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                      14
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Possibility three - the consequences
         •    This is where we need to go!
                 – Services      are available over IPv6
                       – No need for performance degrading, complex and
                        difficult techniques (for most services)
                 – IPv6   provides a way to do more:
                       – Voiceover IP / Skype, running your own server,
                        peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new
                        applications, ...




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                             15
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Conclusion
         •    We need IPv6
                 – for   websites and other services
                 – for   users
         •    IPv4 will still remain in many places
                 – Not    everyone will get an IPv6 connection soon
                 – Not    all services will be available over IPv6 soon
                       – This
                            is acceptable, as long as the most-used
                         websites and services are available over IPv6
                       – Survival   of the fittest

 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                             16
torsdag 26. mai 2011
Remaining problems excuses
         •    Equipment and/or software not available
                 – Solutions    exist!
                 – Buy    from a vendor that provides what is needed
         •    Enabling IPv6 will cause problems for users
                 – Might    be true, but for a small percentage (≤ 0,03%)
                 – World    IPv6 Day (June 8th 2011)
         •    IPv6 is not needed yet
                 – If   everybody waits we will end up with possibility one!
                 – IPv6    is needed

 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                  17
torsdag 26. mai 2011
What to do?
         •    Website owners and hosters:
                 – Make     the site available over IPv6
                 – Not     ipv6.somedomain.no
                       but www.somedomain.no
                 – Make     sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                              18
torsdag 26. mai 2011
What to do?
         •    Access providers:
                 – Provide      IPv6 access to your users
                 – Provide      or advise about IPv6 capable routers
                 – Give   them a decent amount of addresses
                       – Enough     for multiple networks
                       – Not    just one network (/64)
                       – And    certainly not just one device! (/128)
                 – Make    sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support



 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                             19
torsdag 26. mai 2011
What to do?
         •    Organisations / enterprises:
                 – Talk    to your hosting provider about your websites etc.
                 – Talk    to your access provider about your offices
                 – Talk    to your hardware and software vendors
                 – Teach     your staff to support IPv6 at the same level that
                       they support IPv4
                 – Work      on IPv6 deployment in your organisation




 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011                                                    20
torsdag 26. mai 2011

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  • 1. Possible futures Possible futures for the internet Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 2. Where are we now? • The internet is using IPv4 • But... no more IPv4 addresses – Global pool (IANA) is empty – European pool (RIPE NCC) will be empty soon – Internet providers will run out – Enterprises can not get any IPv4 addresses • The internet can not continue to grow • At least not in the way we are used to... Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 2 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 3. The original plan Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 3 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 4. !"#$%&'($!)*+,-./+$&0*+$$1$2345$ Now looking like... IPv4 Pool Size Size of the Internet IPv6 Transition – Dual Stack IPv6 Deployment 12 months! 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Date Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 4 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 5. Possibility one • We continue as we do today – IPv4 is used for all communication – Almost no IPv6 deployment Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 5 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 6. Possibility one - what will happen? • As long as there is demand growth will be forced • Users now usually get one IPv4 address – Their router is fully connected to the internet – The PC’s are not, but can work through the router – The user has control over the router • But there will not be enough IPv4 addresses to continue to give every user his/her own address... Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 6 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 7. Possibility one - what will happen? • As long as there is demand growth will be forced • Users will have to share an IPv4 address – Their router is no longer fully connected to the internet – The ISP can only offer partial service – The user has no control anymore Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 7 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 8. Possibility one - the consequences • Is this a bad thing? Yes! – Performance will degrade – More complex » more failures – Privacy issues – IPv4 address ≠ one user/customer – Lawful intercept will be difficult – Finding abusers will be next to impossible Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 8 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 9. Possibility one - the consequences • What will still work? – Browsing websites, but slower – Sending and retrieving e-mail • What won’t work? – Voice over IP / Skype – Running your own server (web, e-mail, etc) – Peer-to-peer connections (sharing, gaming, talking, ...) – Innovation, new applications, ... Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 9 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 10. Possibility two • Websites and other servers continue to use IPv4 – Not so many addresses needed for servers • Users get IPv6 connections – Still need IPv4 to reach websites and other servers... Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 10 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 11. Possibility two - what will happen? • Users still need IPv4 to reach servers – Users will have to share an IPv4 address • Users will also get an IPv6 connection – IPv6 can be used to communicate with others that also have IPv6 – Plenty of addresses to use without limitation – This will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 11 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 12. Possibility two - the consequences • Is this a bad thing? Yes! (but a bit less bad) – IPv4 services will still have the same problems: – Performance will degrade, more complex » more failures, privacy issues, lawful intercept will be difficult, finding abusers will be next to impossible – IPv6 provides a way to do more: – Voiceover IP / Skype, running your own server, peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new applications, ... Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 12 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 13. Possibility three • Most websites and other servers become available over IPv6 – Their IPv4 connection also remains • Users get IPv6 connections – Still need IPv4 to reach the websites and servers that are late with IPv6 deployment... Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 13 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 14. Possibility three - what will happen? • Users still need IPv4 to reach a few servers – Users will have to share an IPv4 address – The majority of traffic won’t need this though • Users will also get an IPv6 connection – IPv6 can be used to access most websites / servers – IPv6 can be used to communicate with others that also have IPv6 – Plenty of addresses to use without limitation – This will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6 Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 14 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 15. Possibility three - the consequences • This is where we need to go! – Services are available over IPv6 – No need for performance degrading, complex and difficult techniques (for most services) – IPv6 provides a way to do more: – Voiceover IP / Skype, running your own server, peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new applications, ... Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 15 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 16. Conclusion • We need IPv6 – for websites and other services – for users • IPv4 will still remain in many places – Not everyone will get an IPv6 connection soon – Not all services will be available over IPv6 soon – This is acceptable, as long as the most-used websites and services are available over IPv6 – Survival of the fittest Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 16 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 17. Remaining problems excuses • Equipment and/or software not available – Solutions exist! – Buy from a vendor that provides what is needed • Enabling IPv6 will cause problems for users – Might be true, but for a small percentage (≤ 0,03%) – World IPv6 Day (June 8th 2011) • IPv6 is not needed yet – If everybody waits we will end up with possibility one! – IPv6 is needed Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 17 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 18. What to do? • Website owners and hosters: – Make the site available over IPv6 – Not ipv6.somedomain.no but www.somedomain.no – Make sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 18 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 19. What to do? • Access providers: – Provide IPv6 access to your users – Provide or advise about IPv6 capable routers – Give them a decent amount of addresses – Enough for multiple networks – Not just one network (/64) – And certainly not just one device! (/128) – Make sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 19 torsdag 26. mai 2011
  • 20. What to do? • Organisations / enterprises: – Talk to your hosting provider about your websites etc. – Talk to your access provider about your offices – Talk to your hardware and software vendors – Teach your staff to support IPv6 at the same level that they support IPv4 – Work on IPv6 deployment in your organisation Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 20 torsdag 26. mai 2011