Possible futures for the internet: Sander Steffann, IPv6 specialist, co-chair, RIPE Address Policy Working group
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Possible futures for the internet: Sander Steffann, IPv6 specialist, co-chair, RIPE Address Policy Working group
1. Possible futures
Possible futures for the internet
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011
torsdag 26. mai 2011
2. Where are we now?
• The internet is using IPv4
• But... no more IPv4 addresses
– Global pool (IANA) is empty
– European pool (RIPE NCC) will be empty soon
– Internet providers will run out
– Enterprises can not get any IPv4 addresses
• The internet can not continue to grow
• At least not in the way we are used to...
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 2
torsdag 26. mai 2011
3. The original plan
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 3
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4. !"#$%&'($!)*+,-./+$&0*+$$1$2345$
Now looking like...
IPv4 Pool Size
Size of the Internet
IPv6 Transition – Dual Stack
IPv6 Deployment
12 months!
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Date
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 4
torsdag 26. mai 2011
5. Possibility one
• We continue as we do today
– IPv4 is used for all communication
– Almost no IPv6 deployment
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 5
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6. Possibility one - what will happen?
• As long as there is demand growth will be forced
• Users now usually get one IPv4 address
– Their router is fully connected to the internet
– The PC’s are not, but can work through the router
– The user has control over the router
• But there will not be enough IPv4 addresses to
continue to give every user his/her own
address...
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 6
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7. Possibility one - what will happen?
• As long as there is demand growth will be forced
• Users will have to share an IPv4 address
– Their router is no longer fully connected to the internet
– The ISP can only offer partial service
– The user has no control anymore
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8. Possibility one - the consequences
• Is this a bad thing? Yes!
– Performance will degrade
– More complex » more failures
– Privacy issues
– IPv4 address ≠ one user/customer
– Lawful intercept will be difficult
– Finding abusers will be next to impossible
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 8
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9. Possibility one - the consequences
• What will still work?
– Browsing websites, but slower
– Sending and retrieving e-mail
• What won’t work?
– Voice over IP / Skype
– Running your own server (web, e-mail, etc)
– Peer-to-peer connections (sharing, gaming, talking, ...)
– Innovation, new applications, ...
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 9
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10. Possibility two
• Websites and other servers continue to use IPv4
– Not so many addresses needed for servers
• Users get IPv6 connections
– Still need IPv4 to reach websites and other servers...
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 10
torsdag 26. mai 2011
11. Possibility two - what will happen?
• Users still need IPv4 to reach servers
– Users will have to share an IPv4 address
• Users will also get an IPv6 connection
– IPv6 can be used to communicate with others that
also have IPv6
– Plenty of addresses to use without limitation
– This will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 11
torsdag 26. mai 2011
12. Possibility two - the consequences
• Is this a bad thing? Yes! (but a bit less bad)
– IPv4 services will still have the same problems:
– Performance will degrade, more complex » more
failures, privacy issues, lawful intercept will be
difficult, finding abusers will be next to impossible
– IPv6 provides a way to do more:
– Voiceover IP / Skype, running your own server,
peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new
applications, ...
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 12
torsdag 26. mai 2011
13. Possibility three
• Most websites and other servers become
available over IPv6
– Their IPv4 connection also remains
• Users get IPv6 connections
– Still need IPv4 to reach the websites and servers that
are late with IPv6 deployment...
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 13
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14. Possibility three - what will happen?
• Users still need IPv4 to reach a few servers
– Users will have to share an IPv4 address
– The majority of traffic won’t need this though
• Users will also get an IPv6 connection
– IPv6 can be used to access most websites / servers
– IPv6 can be used to communicate with others that
also have IPv6
– Plenty of addresses to use without limitation
– This will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 14
torsdag 26. mai 2011
15. Possibility three - the consequences
• This is where we need to go!
– Services are available over IPv6
– No need for performance degrading, complex and
difficult techniques (for most services)
– IPv6 provides a way to do more:
– Voiceover IP / Skype, running your own server,
peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new
applications, ...
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 15
torsdag 26. mai 2011
16. Conclusion
• We need IPv6
– for websites and other services
– for users
• IPv4 will still remain in many places
– Not everyone will get an IPv6 connection soon
– Not all services will be available over IPv6 soon
– This
is acceptable, as long as the most-used
websites and services are available over IPv6
– Survival of the fittest
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torsdag 26. mai 2011
17. Remaining problems excuses
• Equipment and/or software not available
– Solutions exist!
– Buy from a vendor that provides what is needed
• Enabling IPv6 will cause problems for users
– Might be true, but for a small percentage (≤ 0,03%)
– World IPv6 Day (June 8th 2011)
• IPv6 is not needed yet
– If everybody waits we will end up with possibility one!
– IPv6 is needed
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18. What to do?
• Website owners and hosters:
– Make the site available over IPv6
– Not ipv6.somedomain.no
but www.somedomain.no
– Make sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 18
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19. What to do?
• Access providers:
– Provide IPv6 access to your users
– Provide or advise about IPv6 capable routers
– Give them a decent amount of addresses
– Enough for multiple networks
– Not just one network (/64)
– And certainly not just one device! (/128)
– Make sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 19
torsdag 26. mai 2011
20. What to do?
• Organisations / enterprises:
– Talk to your hosting provider about your websites etc.
– Talk to your access provider about your offices
– Talk to your hardware and software vendors
– Teach your staff to support IPv6 at the same level that
they support IPv4
– Work on IPv6 deployment in your organisation
Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011 20
torsdag 26. mai 2011