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Ippai energy security presentation chietgj bajpaee
1. IPPAI
Asia Energy Security Summit 2012
Energy-maritime security nexus:
Threats facing Asia’s maritime domain
Chietigj Bajpaee
King’s College London/
Vivekananda International Foundation
February 29, 2012
2. Key points
Maritime security integral part of energy security
domain
Non-state security threats represent prevalent
threat to the maritime domain in Asia but lasting
threat will emanate from traditional, state-to-state
rivalries
Sustainable solution contingent upon developing
an integrated, holistic and cooperative regional
approach to regional maritime security concerns
4. Strategic importance of maritime domain
Vulnerability of chokepoints:
Over half of the world’s annual merchant traffic
by tonnage passes through the Malacca, Sunda
and Lombok Straits
15 million bpd of oil and petroleum products
transit the Strait of Malacca, accounting for half
of world’s oil exports
Asian dependence on maritime trade
routes:
80% of China’s oil imports transit the South
China Sea and Indian Ocean
Almost 90% of India's oil imports come via
maritime trade routes
Asia meets three-quarters of its oil demand
through imports, which is expected to increase
to 90% by 2030
Sea as resource
South China Sea holds an estimated seven
billion barrels of oil and 900 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas
5. Non-state threats receding in
South/ Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Political stability in Indonesia
Peace in Aceh
Regional cooperation – Malacca Straits Patrols
South Asia
LTTE defeat removes most potent maritime
terrorist threat
Reduced piracy threat in Bay of Bengal/ primarily
armed robbery
6. Non-state threats persist in
Indian Ocean
Number of successful attacks down
Coordinated approach between regional
multilateral joint command operations
EU-led Operation Atalanta
NATO-led Operation Ocean Shield
US-led Combined Taskforce-151
Ship protection measures
Private security companies
Prosecuting captured pirates in regional
states with functional judicial systems
Piracy threat mutating
Attacking softer/ onshore targets
Increasing ransom demands
Using captured merchant vessels as
pirate ‘mother ships’ to broaden range of
attacks – ‘balloon effect’
Piracy-terrorist nexus?
7. Sustainable solution to non-state
security threats
Collaboration and coordination between
local, regional and international
stakeholders
Developing rules of engagement for
armed guards defending commercial
vessels
Combating root causes of piracy onshore
Poverty and environmental
degradation from commercial
overfishing
Ungoverned spaces arising from
absence of a stable functioning
government in Somalia
Strengthening Puntland police force
in north-eastern Somalia
Clear demarcation of Somali EEZ
8. Inter-state threats re-emerging
Growing strategic importance of the maritime
domain as economic lifeline to the region
Renewed claims to disputed maritime territory
fuelled by
Protecting freedom of navigation
Accessing offshore energy resources
Power projection ambitions
Defending sovereignty and territorial
integrity
Growing military capabilities
Growing inter-linkages between local,
regional and global levels of security
9. Continental vs. maritime disputes/
state vs. non-state actors
Sovereignty in the maritime domain is more fluid or fungible
Players in the maritime domain more diverse, creating multiple levels of
interaction/ misunderstanding
E.g. Destabilizing role of fishing communities
10. Maritime boundary disputes between major powers
• Takeshima/ Dokdo (Japan vs. South Korea)
• Senkaku/ Daiyutai (Japan vs. China)
• Paracel (China vs. Vietnam)
• Spratly (China vs. Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei)
• Northern Limit Line (North vs. South Korea)
• Southern Kurils/ Northern Territories (Russia vs. Japan)
11. Role of external actors
• Adoption of more coordinated regional approach (Vietnam, Philippines, Japan)
• Growing engagement with extra-territorial powers (US, Russia, India)
• A shift from de facto to de jure recognition of sovereignty over disputed territories
would signal clear grounds for escalation of tensions
12. Road to cooperation
Areas of mutual interest in the maritime domain
Maintaining freedom of navigation along SLOCs
Joint exploration of offshore oil and gas resources
Combatting non-traditional security threats, including maritime piracy,
terrorism and arms, narcotics and human trafficking
Overcoming regional trust deficit through
Addressing root causes of regional rivalries, including historical, cultural
and power considerations
Moving away from informal codes of conduct toward institutionalized
mechanisms
Multilateral solution and more open regionalism that takes account of the
views of extra-territorial, non-claimant stakeholders
13. Conclusion
• Over short-term inter-state maritime rivalries unlikely to manifest in the form
of armed conflict between the region’s major powers.
• No major regional power is in a position to exercise unilateral maritime
dominance over the Asia-Pacific while the United States remains the
region’s predominant military power and maritime hegemon
• As most countries remain focussed on internal growth, development and
the consolidation of political power, any rivalry is likely to manifest itself
in the realm of rhetoric, economics, military modernisation and a
competition for allies
• But climate of mistrust pervades the region amid persistence of underlying
inter-state rivalries
• State and non-state security threats in the maritime domain maintain a
symbiotic relationship
• Need to follow Malacca Straits Patrols model
• Functional cooperation built upon pre-existing confidence-building
mechanisms (e.g. ASEAN)
• Multilateral, inclusive and multi-level model of confidence building