Konzervatívny inštitút M. R. Štefánika organizoval ďalšiu z cyklu prednášok Conservative Economic Quarterly Lecture Series /CEQLS/.

1. Hidden Motives are Everywhere
Robin Hanson
George Mason University

2. Talk based on book,
Oxford University Press
out January 2, 2018,
coauthor Kevin Simler
See also my
prior book,
also O.U.P.,
June 2016
paperback
June 2018

3. Conflict: Psych vs. Policy Analysis
• Psych section, editor, referees, reviewers
•WSJ: “I can’t say that the book covers new
ground, but it is a smart synthesis and
offers several original metaphors.”
•Book’s original feature: apply psych to policy
•Claim: policy analysists making a big mistake
•But policy analysts, social scientists not engage

4. The Big Puzzle
Physics, Engineering, & Software:
•World eager to find better designs, pays $$
•Hard to find even modest gains
Social Science and Policy:
•Easier to find big gains, test them, yet:
•World shows little interest in new designs
Our Explanation: Hidden Motives

5. ”Hidden” Motives in Animals

6. “I wanted to get a Coke”

8. Life Areas w/ Hidden Motives
1. Laughter
2. Body Language
3. Conversation
4. Consumption
5. Art
6. Charity
7. Education
8. Medicine
9. Religion
10. Politics

9. 1. Laughter
•Standard Motive:
Incongruous, superior,
benign violation, …?
•Puzzles:
•<20% of laughter responds to “joke”
•Laugh 30x less often when alone
•Speakers laugh 50% more than listeners
•“Don’t drop soap in prison shower”
•Hidden Motive: “Still playing” signal

10. The General Pattern
•Standard Motive: Usual story why we do X
•Especially what said in public, by leaders.
•Puzzles: Patterns of behavior not fit this well
•Hidden Motive: Better fits puzzling patterns
•Meta-puzzle: why not know/admit motive?
•Real motive may violate norms, need a cover

11. Caveats
1. Discuss of each area must be brief
2. Focus on far causes, not conscious plans
3. Many motive/functions in most areas
4. We vary across areas in awareness
5. Expect convince you of ~70% of claims
Plausible: “Hidden motives widespread”

12. 2. Body Language
•Standard Motive:
Physical comfort
•Puzzles:
•Much school on words, none on this
•As talk/walk, negotiate relative status
Via space, rhythm, pauses, posture, interrupt,
hesitation, look direct v glance, swagger
•Actors must learn this to seem realistic
•Hidden Motive: Status Moves, Flirting

13. 3. Conversation
•Standard Motive:
Trade useful info
•Puzzles:
•Don’t track talk debts
•More eager to talk than listen
•Continuous drift of “relevant” topics
•Talk lots on unimportant trivia
•Hidden Motive: Show off mental backpack
•Similar To: News media & academia

14. 4. Consumption
•Standard Motive:
Get useful stuff
•Puzzles:
•We care lots re how stuff makes us look
•Many ads not distinguish product
•Luxury advertised to all, Super Bowl premium
•Prius designed to look especially different
•Hidden Motive: Show off wealth, identity

15. 5. Art
•Standard Motive:
Induce experience
•Puzzles:
•We prefer impractical art
•Fashions, path dependence
•We care about extrinsic features:
originality, techniques, material expense, # artists
•Hidden Motive: Show ability, acumen,
connections

16. 6. Charity
•Standard Motive:
Help
•Puzzles:
•Attend little to effectiveness, prefer variety
•Prefer to help identifiable people nearby
•Give more if seen, others ask, or think mate
•Little marginal charity, or giving to far future
•Hidden Motive: Show sympathetic feelings

17. 7. Education
•Standard Motive:
Learn the material
•Puzzles:
•Learn for free, if skip degree
•Forget most of what “learn”, rest is little used
•Jobs pay 3x more for last year of HS, college
•Paid more for irrelevant majors
•Little interest in many ways to learn faster
•Hidden Motive: Show smart, dutiful, conform.
Habituate to work. Network, indoctrinate.
See Bryan Caplan, The Case Against Education, 2018.

18. 8. Medicine
•Standard Motive:
Get healthy
•Puzzles:
•Not healthier if get more via region, random
•Low interest in big health inputs
•Low interest in private info, vs. shared info
•Spend more if neighbors do
•Eager for shared provision, regulation
•Hidden Motive: Show care; “kiss boo-boo”

19. 9. Religion
•Standard Motive:
Belief in spirits
•Puzzles:
•Beliefs not key to most religions in history
•Sacrifices of $, time, health, fertility
•Religious more $, health, happy, marry, etc.
•Sermons, moralizing gods, arbitrary rules
•Hidden Motive: Bond communities

20. 10. Politics
•Standard Motive:
Better policy
•Puzzles:
•Poorly informed, strong emotions, gullible
•Prefer associates who share views
•Low sensitivity to vote decisiveness
•Prefer group interests, position taking
•Disdain compromise, 1-dimensional spectrum
•Hidden Motive: Show apparatchik-like loyalty

21. Meta-Puzzle:
Why Not Admit/Know Motives?
•Primates need big brains for big group politics
•Human language & weapons allow NORMS, often
tied to motives
• Share food/protection, decide together, punish violators
• NO: violence, orders, bragging, subgroup coalitions
•But if enforce norms well, not need big brains
•Yet our brains biggest: says is much norm evasion
•Real motives may violate norm, ignorance hides

22. The Real Policy Design Problem
Fake Problem: Give people more of
what they say they want (given hidden
info & action)
Real Problem: Help people appear to
want what they say they want, while
actually giving them more of what they
actually want.

23. Who/When Should Know?
•NOT if in situation evolution envisioned,
when embrace evolution’s goals
•Unusual jobs: managers, sales
•Nerdy, need conscious study of social
world
•Policy analysts who suggest reforms

24. Life Areas w/ Hidden Motives
1. Laughter
2. Body Language
3. Conversation
4. Consumption
5. Art
6. Charity
7. Education
8. Medicine
9. Religion
10. Politics

25. More Areas w/ Hidden Motives?
11. Meetings
12. Managers
13. Vacations
14. Legal trials
15. Parties
16. Alcohol
17. Investment
18. Marriage
19. Parenting
20. Consulting