Presented by Michael Kidoido at the Uganda Smallholder Pigs Value Chain Impact Pathways Workshop, Kampala, Uganda, 27-28 June 2013

1. Validating the Uganda Pig Value Chain Impact
Pathway(s)
Michael Kidoido
Uganda Smallholder Pigs Value Chain Impact
Pathways Workshop
Kampala, Uganda, 27-28 June 2013

2. Background
• The Livestock and Fish CG Research Program is
implemented by a 4 CG center partnership:
 ILRI, CIAT, ICARDA, and WorldFish
• It works in 9 well selected value chains worldwide:
 Pig (Uganda and Vietnam), dairy (Tanzania and India)
and dual purpose cattle (Nicaragua), small ruminants
(Ethiopia and Mali), and fish (Egypt and Bangladesh)
• Program’s approach:
 Delivering impact through improving value chain
performance
 Creating International Public Goods (IPGs)-
internationally accessible knowledge

3. • However the program is:
 Complicated (multi-level and multi-site)
 Complex (emergent outcomes)
• Therefore:
Not easy to predict whether the planned
interventions will deliver the benefits as
predicted.
Not sure whether value chain actors will put to
use the interventions to improve themselves.
• Thus constructing well validated impact will
improve program’s probability of achieving
impact.

4. • Are result chains that represent the various steps that
lead to having impact at scale, through successive stages
of outcomes, as a result of adoption and use of outputs
by different actor types at different stages
• IPs can be represented by narratives or flow diagrams
• But most frequently as graphics.
Development
Outcomes Impact
Research
Outputs
Research
Outcomes
Impact Pathways (IPs)

5. Why develop Impact Pathways?
• To demonstrate program rationale
• To guide program planning
• To provide a foundation for program
Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning
(ME&L)
• To provide impact hypotheses for ex-
post Impact Assessment (IA)

6. • Research information, new technologies and
practices
• New approaches for putting research into action
 Capacity development
 Professional development courses
 On the job trainings and activities
• Engagement events and networks
 Communication campaigns
 Innovative platforms
Research outputs
Could be information and understanding

7. • Also include research outcomes
 Change in knowledge, awareness and skills
 Change in capacity of beneficiaries and intermediaries
Capacity change outcomes
Behavioral change outcomes
• Change in actual practices of beneficiaries and “next users”
 Land use planners using GIS maps
 Smallholders adopt improved crop varieties
 NARES approach to soil management adapted to local conditions

8. • New policies and policy instruments
• New or better functioning institutions
(formal or informal)
 Functional seed distribution system
 Increased value chain productivity
 Policies for improved use of natural resources
adopted
Enabling environment outcomes

9. • Increase productivity for beneficiaries
• Improved distribution of opportunities, income,
food security and nutrition benefits to the target
group
• Reduced degradation of natural resources
• Examples:
 Increased income for smallholder farmers from
adopting improved varieties
 Increased consumption of biofortified foods
 Reduced loss of biodiversity and genetic resources
Direct benefits outcomes

10. • Enhanced livelihoods in target domain across
the program
 Increased food security
 Reduced rural poverty
 Reduced under nutrition
 Enhanced sustainability of natural
resources in target domain across
program
Program impacts

11. Generic program Impact Pathway(s)

12. Livestock and Fish program Intermediate
Development outcomes (IDOs)
 Program’s direct benefits and enabling environment
outcomes
 IDOs articulate in a concise way with simple language what
our program aims to deliver during it’s lifetime
 IDO’s help inform and design our research-for-development
agenda
 IDOs help build our ‘Results Strategy Framework’ and capture
where our impact pathways are expected to take us to
 IDOs provide a framework for holding us accountable on our
hypotheses and our promises to deliver at scale
 IDOs will be used to measure our performance, successes and
failures (and thus help us reflect and learn as we progress)

13. 1. Increased livestock and fish productivity in small-
scale production systems for the target
commodities.
2. Increased quantity and improved quality of the
target commodity supplied from the target
small-scale production and marketing systems.
3. Increased employment and income for low-
income actors in the target value chains, with an
increased share of employment for and income
controlled by low-income women.

14. 4. Increased consumption of the target commodity
responsible for filling a larger share of the nutrient gap
for the poor, particularly for nutritionally vulnerable
populations (women of reproductive age and young
children).
5. Lower environment impacts per unit of commodity
produced in the target value chains.
6. Policies (including investments) support the
development of small-scale production and marketing
systems, and seek to increase the participation of
women within these value chains.

15. Theory of change (TOC)
• Explicit identification of the ways by which change is expected to occur from
output to outcome and impact.
• The TOC questions the assumptions about causality underlying the relationships
between outputs, outcomes and impact.
Development
Outcomes Impact
Research
Outputs
Research
Outcomes
Description of causal
mechanism, with
evidence
Description of causal
mechanism, with
evidence
Description of causal
mechanism, with
evidence

16. Set of Assumptions for the value chain IP
• Addressing whole value chain will improve relevance,
uptake and effectiveness of innovations.
• Focus and targeting will increase efficiency and the
probability of achieving proof at scale.
• Implementation of demand-driven innovations in the
right value chains with the right partners will accelerate
the program’s progress towards achieving outcomes and
impact.
• A significant number of pre-commercial smallholders can
become market-oriented and intensify production
sustainably.

17. • Pro-poor value chains can compete and generate
sufficient incentives to promote investment in
intensification.
• The poor rely on animal-source food produced locally
by smallholders and from less formal marketing
channels.
• The poor will consume more ASF if availability, access
and affordability of products improve from those
systems.
• Increased and equitable consumption of ASF will
improve nutrition and health.
Cont.…….Assumptions

18. • Focusing on a few value chains might limit geographical
spread of research benefits.
• Social inequalities bar women and other marginalized
groups from taking up innovations, limiting achievement
of outcomes at scale.
• High transaction costs of managing a complex network of
partnerships.
• Program approaches may not attract investment for
research and development.
• Partners may not be willing or have the interest to take up
program interventions
• Income and gender inequalities are exacerbated due to
program implementation.
Set of risks for the value chain IP

19. Program M&E/IA next steps
• Finalize ToC/IP at program and value chain/country
levels
– develop IP narratives from value chain IP
workshops
• Develop program and project specific M&E/IA
frameworks on the basis of well defined value chains
Impact Pathways
• Support ongoing evaluations to keep validating the
Theory of change

20. Objectives of the workshop
 Communicate and validate the program’s intervention
logic in the development of the fish value chain, clearly
identifying the roles of different actors in the value
chain.
 Question and clarify the program’s potential for
achieving impact on the intended beneficiaries and
map out the key risks and assumptions of the program.
 Begin to lay the building blocks for designing a
framework for subsequent monitoring, evaluating and
learning of the program.

21. CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. The CGIAR Research
Program on Livestock and Fish aims to increase the productivity of small-scale livestock and fish systems in sustainable
ways, making meat, milk and fish more available and affordable across the developing world.
CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish
livestockfish.cgiar.org