Global health and sustainable food security: Why the livestock sectors of developing countries matter
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Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Global Animal Health Conference on Developing Global Animal Health Products to Support Food Security and Sustainability, Arlington, Virginia, 17−18 October 2013
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Global health and sustainable food security: Why the livestock sectors of developing countries matter
- 1. Global health and sustainable food security Why the livestock sectors of developing countries matter Global Animal Health Conference Developing global animal health products to support food security and sustainability Arlington, Virginia, 17-18 October 2013 Jimmy Smith, Director General, ILRI
- 2. Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in the following slides are those of the individual presenter and should not be attributed to Drug Information Association, Inc. (‘DIA’), its directors, officers, employees, volunteers, members, chapters, councils, Special Interest Area Communities or affiliates, or any organization with which the presenter is employed or affiliated. These slides are the intellectual property of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). They are licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoncommercialShare Alike 3.0 Unported Licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
- 3. Key messages 1 2 GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY Smallholder livestock systems contribute now and in the future GLOBAL LIVESTOCK MARKETS Demand for livestock in developing countries is rising fast 3 4 GLOBAL ANIMAL HEALTH Global food security depends on better animal health GLOBAL ANIMAL HEALTH MARKETS Animal health markets are big markets in developing countries
- 5. Food security and sustainability How will the world feed itself sustainably by the time the population stabilizes about 2050? • 60% more food than is produced now will be needed • 75% of this must come from productivity − not land − increases • The higher production must be achieved while reducing poverty and addressing environmental, social and health concerns • This greater production will have to be achieved in the face of temperatures 2−4 degrees warmer than today’s
- 6. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today hungry people vulnerable to food insecurity inadequate diets overconsumers balanced diets Malnutrition is costly. FAO estimates the costs of malnutrition to be as high as US$3.5 trillion a year
- 7. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries outpace that of developed countries 300 Million metric tonnes 250 200 150 developing developed 100 50 0 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 FAO 2006
- 8. Global food production: From where? Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supply the large proportion of livestock products Herrero et al. 2009
- 9. Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive East African dairy • 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd • Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers • Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers have same levels of efficiency and profits Vietnam pig industry • 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs than those with more than 4 sows • Industrial pig production could grow to meet no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
- 11. 4 out of 5 of the highest value global commodities are livestock FAOSTAT 2013
- 12. Percentage increase in demand for livestock products 120 2000 to 2040 100 80 Meat Milk Eggs 60 40 20 0 Developing Countries Developed Countries Far higher growth in demand will occur in developing countries IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results
- 13. Global trade of livestock products (million tonnes, milk excluded) 14 12 10 8 1967 2007 6 4 2 0 pig meat beef eggs poultry meat sheep and goat meat Adapted from FAO 2012
- 14. Global trade of livestock products (million tonnes, milk included) 100 90 80 70 60 50 1967 2007 40 30 20 10 0 pig meat beef eggs milk poultry sheep meat and goat meat Adapted from FAO 2012
- 16. Smallholders can commercialize Smallholders can continue to most provide livestock products in most developing countries only if the following animal health problems are addressed: • Poor market access − Reduce food safety problems that reduce market participation by smallholders • Low productivity − Reduce endemic animal diseases that lower productivity • Zoonotic diseases − Lower zoonotic disease transmissions that threaten small-scale livestock producers in poor countries as well as human health in all countries
- 17. Food safety in developing countries • Most milk, meat and eggs are sold in informal markets • We need to manage the risks (of illness) while retaining the benefits (to livelihoods, food/nutrition security) of informally sold livestock foods • Perceptions can be misleading: e.g., handling cattle or drinking milk is as risky as eating vegetables Percent of milk marketed in informal markets Country Percent Kenya 86 Tanzania 95 Uganda 90 Rwanda 90 Ethiopia 95 Malawi 95 Zambia 90
- 18. Food safety in developing countries • Gender issues are important issues in food safety • Health advice is most useful when it is context-specific, based on evidence, and developed in and with local communities • Social incentives (‘good parents do x . . .’) and risk- rather than rule-based approaches work best • Relatively simple and cheap interventions can lead to substantial improvements in food safety
- 19. Innovations, incentives and institutions for managing food-borne diseases • Develop and test technologies • Train, brand and certify informal actors • Development local capacity Novel lateral flow assays for cysticercosis Women butchers sell safer meat than men
- 20. Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal health, persist between rich and poor countries Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk Steinfeld et al. 2006
- 21. Annual losses from selected diseases – Africa and South Asia 8 7 Billion $ lost yearly 6 Africa South Asia 5 4 South Asia 3 Africa 2 1 0 Estimates from BMGF
- 22. Animal disease is a key constraint in Africa • Animal disease is a key constraint: Remove it and animal productivity increases greatly • As livestock systems intensify in developing countries, diseases may increase Annual mortality of African livestock (About half due to preventable or curable diseases) Young Adult Cattle 22% 6% Shoat 28% 11% Poultry 70% 30% Otte & Chilonda, IAEA
- 23. A deadly dozen zoonotic diseases each year kill 2.2 million people and sicken 2.4 billion Annual deaths from all zoonoses Annual deaths from single-agent zoonoses 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Almost all losses are in developing countries
- 24. Greatest burden of zoonoses falls on one billion poor livestock keepers Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
- 25. Emerging zoonotic disease events, 1940−2012 Map by IOZ, published in an ILRI report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
- 26. Costs of emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks (US$ billion) Period Cost (conservative estimates) 1998−2009 38.7 2002−2004 41.5 1998−2009 80.2 6 outbreaks excluding SARS − Nipah virus (Malaysia) − West Nile fever (USA) − HPAI (Asia, Europe) − BSE (US) − Rift Valley fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia) − BSE (UK) costs 1997−09 only SARS Total over 12 years Giving an annual average of US$6.7 billion World Bank 2012
- 27. African swine fever threatens US$150-billion global pig industry 2007 199 8
- 28. Global Animal Health Markets
- 29. Animal health markets in developing countries: Significant and growing • Global animal health = multi-billion-dollar industry • Global human health market = $1,000 billion • Global animal health market (livestock + pet + other) = $20 billion • Global livestock health market = $13 billion • Africa and South Asia = $0.5 billion • Market shares = drugs 63%, vaccines 25%, feeds 15% • Africa = +15.7% year-on-year growth (2nd after Latin America)
- 30. Animal health markets: Where is the demand? 15 countries make up more than 85% of the global animal health market: • Europe: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK • Asia: Japan, China, India, Korea • Americas: Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico • Oceania: Australia Developing and emerging countries are increasingly important
- 31. Animal health markets: India • 500 million livestock, 1 billion poultry • Livestock sector is 2nd-largest contributor to GDP (6%) • World’s biggest dairy producer • Animal health market annual growth over 8% • Worth $370 million in 2008: 52% cattle, 38% poultry
- 32. Animal health markets: Opportunities in developing countries • Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g., drugs in smaller packages) • Delivery systems for small farms • Surveillance for drug resistance • ‘One Health’ approaches and ‘Rational Drug Use’ for both people and animals • ‘Game-changing products’: e.g., vaccines for Newcastle disease and East Coast fever • Quality assurance for veterinary medicines
- 33. Key messages 1 2 GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY Smallholder livestock systems contribute now and in the future GLOBAL LIVESTOCK MARKETS Demand for livestock in developing countries is rising fast 3 4 GLOBAL ANIMAL HEALTH Global food security depends on better animal health GLOBAL ANIMAL HEALTH MARKETS Animal health markets are big markets in developing countries
- 34. Last words The risks of ignoring pressing animal health issues in the developing world are huge: − Lost livelihoods and food in developing countries − Reduced global food security − Impaired human health in all countries The opportunities for improving animal health in developing countries are just as big: − A significant and rapidly growing market achieved with appropriate approaches
- 35. Better lives through livestock ilri.org The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
Notas do Editor
- Following key messages, end with a ‘summing up’ statement FOOD SECURITYAnimal health in the developing world is key to global and sustainablefood securityThe wealth of the world’s poor is largely locked up in their farm animal stockGROWING MARKETSThe livestock sectors of developing countries are evolving rapidly and present a huge and ever-growing marketThe risks of ignoring livestock health in the developing world --- for all of us --- could be hugeDISEASE AND FARMSWe should tackle diseases where they begin --- many begin on the farmMore than half of all human diseases are transmitted to people from farm and other animalsDOUBLE BOTTOM LINEWork in animal health helps us maintain the ‘engine’ of food production --- the world’s smallholder farmers and herders ---while also helping us prevent a global health disaster --- in the form of epidemics of infectious diseases transmitted from animals, such as TB, AIDS, SARS and bird flu.BOTTOM LINEWe cannot afford to ignore pressing animal health issues in poor countries.Such neglect threatens not only food security in those countries (through lost livelihoods and foods) but also human health and life in all countries (through livestock-associated human diseases).
- Animal-source foods are a big part of meeting global nutritional as well as food needs and demands.Of the world’s 7 billion people, only a small percentage are fed and nourished.It is a shocking indictment of the global food system that, in the 21st century, most of the world’s population have sub-optimal diets:1 billion going to bed hungry2 billion are vulnerable to food insecurity1 billion have diets that do not meet all their nutritional requirements1 billion suffer the effects of over-consumption
- These figures are from FAO’s Livestock’s long shadow.
- Trade matters − but local markets matter moreValue of 2011 meat trade was more than $100 billion (10% of agricultural trade)But traded meat accounts for only 10% of total meat consumed
- This needs to change to something about smallholder livestock producers important role in future food security – and thus:Their engagement in markets needs to be facilitatedProductivity needs to increaseChallenges of animal and human health interaction need to be addressedWhy animal health in smallholder systems matters so much
- s/h participation in marketsRisk rather than regulatory
- s/h participation in marketsRisk rather than regulatory
- Add note: No numbers for PPR here but PPR is widespread in South Asia
- ECF and Newcastle Disease are examples where the disease is the biggest constraint in the system. Several studies have shown that where these are controlled populations and/or offtake can double.The table summarises a number of studies in a systematic review of mortality in African traditional systems, by age group
- Of 56 important diseases identified in the study, just 12 were responsible for 97% of human mortality.The second table shows those diseases caused by single agents(e.g. excluding food borne diseases which are caused by multiple agents).
- Last year ILRI conducted a systematic review of zoonoses, livestock-keeping and poverty.This found that the heaviest burden of zoonoses falls on poor people in close contact with animalsAn ILRI study shows that zoonotic diseases are major obstacles in pathways out of poverty for one billion poor livestock keepers. The diseases mapped cause 2.3 billion human illness and 1.7 million human deaths a year. In poor countries, the diseases also infect more than one in seven livestock every year.Map by ILRI, from original published in an ILRI report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012.
- In the same study, we also mapped emerging zoonotic events between 1940 and 2012.Those of the last decade are shown as blue dots, while earlier events are colouredred.In recent years, more events have been reported from the rapidly intensifying regions of S America and SE AsiaWest USA & west Europe hotspotsLast decade: S America & SE Asia Most emerging human diseases com from animals. This map locates events over the past 72 years, with recent events (identified by an ILRI-led study in 2012) in blue. Like earlier analyses, the study shows western Wurope and western USA are hotspots; recent events, however, show an increasingly higher representation of developing countries.Potential hotspots are in US, western Europe, Brazil and Southeast AsiaMap by IOZ, published in an ILRI report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012.
- Period Disease (Country) Start Estimate 1986-2009 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (UK) 1986 15,500,000,000 6.1 billion in 1997-2009 1994 Plague (India) 1994 2,000,000,000 Sept. 1998-April 1999 Nipah virus (Malaysia) 1998 671,000,000 January 1999-Dec. 2008 West Nile fever (USA) 1999 400,000,000 Nov. 2002-July 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (CD, China, ROW)2002 41,500,000,000 January 2004-January 2009Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Asia) 2004 20,000,000,000 2003-2007 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (USA) 2004 11,000,000,000 Oct. 2005-Jan. 2009 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Europe) 2005 500,000,000 Nov. 2005-January 2009 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Africa) 2005 Nov. 2006-May 2007 Rift Valley Fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia) 2006 30,000,000 per year without SARS 48,329,000,000 2,301,380,952 SARS 41,500,000,000 1,976,190,476 Total in 1986-2006 89,829,000,000 4,277,571,429 Total in 1998-2009 only 80,201,000,0006,683,416,667 without SARS 38,701,000,000 3,225,083,333 SARS 41,500,000,000 3,458,333,333 Annual avg (12 yrs) for 7 outbreaks is $3.2 bIf SARS is once in 12-yrs event, the annual cost is $3.5 bMoreover, there are other zoonotic diseases that are not included in this calculation. For instance HIV/AIDs which imposes heavy human, social and economic costs. At present, programs to control the disease are spending on the order of $10 billion per year – if we had included this, the total costs would be even more staggering.Costs of a flu pandemic would range from about 5x the impact of these 8 outbreaks in a mild flu scenario (455 billion) to about 40 x in a severe flu scenario ($3.1 trillion). Most of these costs would be indirect.
- Globalization of transboundary diseasesThe world is more inter-connectedLocal problems are becoming global challengesFood safety, zoonoses, endemic diseases in developing countries increasingly becoming challenges in developed countriesExample:No vaccine for ASF, disease affects trade and market access. Wiped out half pig population in Madagascar in the late 1990’s.