Presentation Slides from ILC-UK's Ben Franklin at the ILC-UK 2017 Future of Ageing Conference, 29 November 2017, London

1. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Public health in Europe during the
austerity years
Ben Franklin, Dean Hochlaf and George Holley-Moore
follow us on twitter: @ilcuk @bjafranklin @dhochlaf

2. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
What does our report do?
 Maps austerity across Europe.
 Explores how health outcomes evolved during this
time.
 Seeks to isolate the impact of austerity on health
cross-nationally
 Explores evidence from individual countries.

3. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Austerity was a pan-European affair
Fiscal adjustment 2009-2013 as a proportion of GDP

4. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Change in EU average spending by type during austerity years 2009-2012
Only spending on old age (pensions) and housing rose

5. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Prevention spending was cut hardest
Growth of health spending for selected functions, EU average 2005-2014

6. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Health outcomes during the austerity years
• Slowdown in mortality improvements.
• Slowdown in life expectancy improvements.
• Slowdown in subjective health improvements and fall
amongst 15-24 year olds.
• Rise in unmet needs.

7. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Health outcomes during the austerity years
• Slowdown in mortality improvements.
• Slowdown in life expectancy improvements.
• Slowdown in subjective health improvements and fall
amongst 15-24 year olds.
• Rise in unmet needs. UK outlier in subjective health

8. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
But to what extent was austerity to blame?
Empirical model
To measure the effects of austerity on health we build an empirical
model which has two parts:
1. Estimates the effects of unemployment on mortality rates across
European countries and…
2. Explores whether unemployment had stronger or weaker effects on
mortality depending on the severity of the austerity pursued.
In our analysis we include two measures of austerity – one based on
cuts to health expenditure and the other based on cuts to social
expenditure.
All data for the model comes from OECD and Eurostat.

9. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Associations between austerity and health

10. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Associations between austerity and health
But the effects are relatively small – austerity has not had much of
an impact on mortality rates in either direction.
For a fuller picture, a longer term, distributional analysis of the
effects of austerity is required

11. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
So what can we say about the relationship between
austerity and health?
• Europe is ageing fast, and health is arguably the most
important asset to ensuring a sustainable future.
• Many European countries undertook profound changes to their
health (and social security) systems. The behavioural responses
to these changes will take time to emerge and understand.
• The drive for efficiency in public services is a noble goal, but
efficiency must equate to continual progress in health and
other quality of life outcomes, otherwise it is tantamount to failure.
• Health services across Europe insulated themselves from the worst
short-term effects of austerity, but such a limited goal cannot be
sustained, either politically, socially or economically over the
medium to longer term.

12. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Many thanks
Ben Franklin, Dean Hochlaf and George Holley-Moore
International Longevity Centre - UK
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk @bjafranklin @dhochlaf