Prof Les Mayhew, ILC-UK Consultant, presents the concepts of a 15-minute city, what it looks like, how it might work, its practical values and examples.

1. 15-minute cities
Dream or reality?
Les Mayhew
Head of Global Research, ILC-UK
December 22
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2. Key issues
• What is a 15-minute city?
• What does it look like?
• How might it work?
• Does it have practical value?
• Are there examples we can use?
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3. What to look out for
• Scale is important - urban vs neighbourhood, macro vs micro (e.g.
retirement communities, university campuses)
• How transactions works e.g. You go to the shop or the shop comes
to you
• How you get around – car, public, bike, pram or walk makes a huge
difference
• Service hierarchies – every neighbourhood needs a GP but not an
opera house. Wheels within wheels.
• Nothing is fixed in perpetuity – the impact of the information
revolution (e.g. closure of bank branches)
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4. What do 15-minute cities look like?
Example of hub-spoke-ring urban physical formats
(A) Catchment with a
5-minute radius with
one ring and spoke
situated on the ring
(B) A two-ring town with a
central business district and
5-sub-centres, 3 spokes and
fully nested catchments of
constant radius
(C) A nested 4-ring 10-
spoke city, a CBD with 5
sub-centres centres per
ring (20 in total) and a
fixed travel time radius
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5. Impact of fast routes but with slower
local roads
(A) Equal speeds
on spokes and
rings
(B) Slower
speeds on local
roads
(C) Much slower
speeds on local roads
(impact of the 20mph
speed limit?)
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6. Greater London plan 1944
Patrick Abercrombie
• Developed to aid the post-war reconstruction
of London and to overcome inadequacies of
the transport system
• Conceived almost entirely around the motor
car
• Described as a giant cartwheel with 5 rings
and a central hub with three grades of road:
•Express arterial (motorways)
•Arterials
•Sub-arterials
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7. Does Abercrombie’s plan fit the criteria
to become a 15-minute city?
M25
N& S
Circular
Inner
ring
The hidden
ring
Congestion zone ~ 3km
radius
ULEZ 12.5 km radius
Based on the car as
the dominant mode
of travel London
meets some of the
necessary conditions
but there are just too
many negative
externalities e.g.
congestion,
destruction of the
physical
environment,
pollution
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8. Traffic in towns –
The value of ring roads
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Traffic not
terminating in a town
centre will use fast
routes where
available. If the by-
pass is of ‘extreme
merit’ all external
traffic and most
internally generated
traffic will use the
ring road.
Fails test of “extreme merit” Passes test of “extreme merit”

9. Impact of congestion charging on
route selection
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A
B
C
D
This three-ring city
shows the effect of
congestion charging on
route choice for two
journey destinations in
London: A and C, 7.5
kms due north from the
centre and B and D 18.5
kms. Light grey are
routes via central
London, yellow via the
N and S circular; dark
grey via the M25.
Congestion
charging in the
inner ring
reduces traffic
via the city
centre and
deflects it onto
the outer rings.
No Charge Charge
Destination
Destination

10. 15-minute ‘cities' in towns & neighbourhoods
• In densely populated neighbourhoods walking and cycling tend to
dominate – ‘walking cities’ so catchments are smaller
• Optimal catchment areas will tend to regular hexagons if services are
evenly located (A) in a self-organising way and getting about is simple
e.g. no barriers such as railways or rivers
• If there are local variations in travel speeds such as in small towns
hexagons adjust in size (B)
• Various services typify the day-time local neighbourhood economy:
Primary schools, childcare, pharmacies, letter-boxes, small shops and
cafes, and bus-stops
• But what is provided depends also on the population density in each
catchment to achieve the necessary footfall
• Libraries, health centres, emergency services tend to be at a meso-scale
& catchment radii are greater, so 5, 10, 15+ minute cities can co-exist
A
B
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11. Example of a 10-minute neighbourhood
based on access to eye testing among 60+
Each dot is the
address of an
older household
the London
Borough of Tower
Hamlets. Blue
dots to the left are
optometrists and
red ones to the
right are GP
practices.
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12. Access is more even and there is
greater take-up
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0-0.09 0.1-
0.19
0.2-
0.29
0.3-
0.39
0.4-
0.49
0.5-
0.59
0.6-
0.69
0.7-
0.79
0.8-
0.89
0.9-
0.99
1-1.09 1.1-
1.19
Distance from nearest centre
Eye
test
take
up
(persons)
actual
predicted
The tall burgundy
columns show an
increase in take-up of
eye testing among
60+ population
following a
reconfiguration of the
services by providing
eye tests in GP
surgeries
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13. Identifying 10-minute local hubs in
Newham
Mauve dots are areas with
best access to local
services serving as hubs
Yellow and orange dots
are households with
least access to local
services
Services
included in the
10-minute local
hubs are GPs,
pharmacies,
post offices,
and libraries.
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Location of
the Olympic
Park

14. Amenities can include green space
and public transport
Brown dots are older households with
poorest access to green space
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This map shows older households
in a 5-minute radius of bus stops

15. Discussion
• How useful is the concept of 15-
minute cities?
• If it is useful how to make it happen
and what are the barriers?
• Is information technology an enabler
or a barrier?
• How do we engage with policy-
makers and who is the audience?
• What else should we be looking at
that’s relevant to this e.g. housing? Aerial view of Whiteley retirement
village in Weybridge, Surrey
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