We held a webinar with the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) for an in-depth look at the factors affecting working lifetimes, the impact of demographic changes and the implications for future policy. Key questions we looked at were: What changes are we seeing in our demographics? How might working lives change? Do longer lives equate to healthier lives? Exploring this with us were: Chair: Sophia Dimitriadis (Senior Economist, ILC) Matt Gurden – Actuarial Director for Clients Development and Growth, Government Actuary Department Steven Baxter – Head of Innovation and Development, Club Vita

1. The long view
Will changing demographics lead to more
flexible working lives?
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#TheLongView

2. Welcome and introduction
Sophia Dimitriadis, Senior Economist, ILC
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3. Matt Gurden
Actuarial Director, Government Actuary
Department
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4. The Long View
Will changing demographics lead to more
flexible working lives
Matt Gurden – GAD
8 March 2022

5. 5
Key questions
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible working lives – 8 March 2022
• What changes are we seeing in our demographics?
• How might working lives change?
• Do longer lives equate to healthier lives?

6. 6
Demographic changes
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible working lives – 8 March 2022
Male Female
Age 45 in 2000 81.7 84.9
Age 45 in 2020 83.8 86.8
Age 45 in 2060 88.1 90.7
Cohort life expectancies for those aged 45 in
2000, 2020, 2060
Source: ONS 2020-based UK principal population projections

7. 7
More years of retirement?
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible working lives – 8 March 2022
Source: ONS 2020-based UK principal population projections; male life expectancies at SPa in the relevant year
45 46 48
17.8 18.8 20.6
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2020 2060
(SPa 65) (SPa 66) (SPa 68)
Age Working Life / Retirement (years)
Working life Retirement

8. 8
When do people stop working?
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible working lives – 8 March 2022
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86
Proportion of population in employment by age (2020)
Male Female
Source: OBR Cohort employment model

9. 9
Healthy life expectancy
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible working lives – 8 March 2022
Source: ONS
HLE at age 65
Males 2014 to 2016 10.2
Males 2017 to 2019 10.4
Females 2014 to 2016 10.8
Females 2017 to 2019 11.0
63.3
63.7
62.9
63.0
19.8
19.2
16.5
16.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2017 to 2019
2014 to 2016
2017 to 2019
2014 to 2016
Females
Males
Healthy life expectancy at birth (UK)
Years in 'good' health Years in 'poorer' health

10. 10
Heterogeneity
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible working lives – 8 March 2022
In 2019, there was a 20.6
year gap in female life
expectancy between the
area with the highest life
expectancy and the area with
the lowest life expectancy.
The gap was 27.0 years for
men, ranging from 95.3
years in Kensington and
Chelsea, London to 68.3
years in Blackpool.
Source: Lancet

11. Leisure
Affordability
Housing
Health & Caring responsibilities
Disability & Health
Education & Skills
Family structures
11
Factors influencing working lives
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible working lives – 8 March 2022

12. 12
Why this matters to GAD
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible working lives – 8 March 2022
17.3
43.2
11.1
11.1
43.2
12.7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Pensionable Age
Working Age
Children
Millions
UK population by life stage
2020 2060
Source: ONS 2020-based UK principal population projections

13. 13
The Government Actuary’s Department is proud to be accredited
under the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ Quality Assurance Scheme.
Our website describes the standards we apply.
The information in this presentation is not intended to provide specific
advice. Please see our full disclaimer for details.
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible working lives – 8 March 2022

14. Steven Baxter
Head of Innovation & Development,
Club Vita
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#TheLongView

15. The long view
Will changing demographics lead to more flexible
working lives?
Steven Baxter, Head of Longevity Research
8th March 2022

16. 16
Demographics and working lives
“Working lifetime” “Retirement”

17. 17
Demographics and working lives
“Working lifetime” “Retirement”
We are living longer
A health and
affordability
“cliff-edge”?
2
1
Duration, nature
and rhythm
3

18. 18
We are living longer….
…but longevity improvements have (temporarily?) stalled
Source: Club Vita calculation based upon data from Human Mortality Database, ONS and CMI publications.
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
Increases in period life expectancy for men
from age 65 in each decade
Change from start to end of decade 2010-2019
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
Increases in period life expectancy for women
from age 65 in each decade
Change from start to end of decade 2010-2019

19. 19
Longevity inequality
Life expectancy at birth; latest ONS statistics
Area 2001-2003 2018-2020
Glasgow City 73.1
Hart 79.9
Area 2001-2003 2018-2020
Glasgow City 78.3
Kensington & Chelsea 84.3

20. 20
Demographics and working lives
“Working lifetime” “Retirement”
We are living longer
A health and
affordability
“cliff-edge”?
2
1
Duration, nature
and rhythm
3

21. 21
Retirement cliff-edge or phased exiting?
Source: GAD presentation by Matt Goulden for The Long View; author’s own annotations.
15 year
“window”

22. 22
Demographics and working lives
“Working lifetime” “Retirement”
We are living longer
A health and
affordability
“cliff-edge”?
2
1
Duration, nature
and rhythm
3

23. 23
Work-Education-“Break” rhythms?
Initial
education
Work
Less
work
Work Retirement
Work
Reskill Work
Less
work
Time with young children
Less
work
Retrain for 2nd career
Career break to “recharge”
Work
Caring commitments
Phased retirement
Illustrative cadence, boxes for illustration purposes and need not reflect time spent in each part of the rhythm

24. 24
To sum up…
• We are living longer, and in part healthier, lives
• The age structure of our population is changing…
The impact on working lives…
• Far more of a education-work-break “rhythm”?…
• …hopefully supported by:
‒ accessible opportunities to reskill; and
‒ diminishing health inequalities

25. 25
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licensee of all intellectual property rights in the presentation. All such rights are reserved. The material and charts
included herewith are provided as background information for illustration purposes only. This presentation is not a
definitive analysis of the subjects covered and should not be regarded as a substitute for specific advice in relation to
the matters addressed. It is not advice and should not be relied upon. This presentation should not be released or
otherwise disclosed to any third party without prior consent from CV. CV accept no liability for errors or omissions or
reliance upon any statement or opinion herein.
Thank you

26. Q&A
Please submit your questions in the Q&A
section
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#TheLongView

27. Close
Sophia Dimitriadis, Senior Economist, ILC
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#TheLongView

28. Report launch: Generation Vax – Leveraging
intergenerational relations to increase
uptake of vaccination
Register at ilcuk.org.uk/events @ilcuk
#GenerationVax
Speakers: Prof Andrew Pollard (JCVI), Dr Catherine
Duggan (FIP), Daphne Holt (CLCI), Amber Williamson (Digital
Willow), Stacey Knobler (Sabin Vaccine Institute), Michael
Fornwall (MSD), Leesa Lin (LSHTM & D24H)
Date: Tuesday, 15 March 2022
Time: 2.00pm – 4.00pm GMT

29. Thank you
Join the conversation: @ilcuk
#TheLongView