SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 11
Baixar para ler offline
International
OPEN

Journal

ACCESS

Of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER)

Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating
Subject To Different Physical Conditions
G. S. Mokaddis1, Y. M. Ayed2, H. S. Al-Hajeri3
1

Ain shams University, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Cairo, Egypt.
2
Suez University. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Suez, Egypt
3
Kuwait University. Faculty of Science, Kuwait

ABSTRACT: This paper deals with the stochastic behavior of a single unit of man-machine system
operating under different physical conditions. Assuming that the failure, repair and physical conditions
(good - poor) times are stochastically independent random variables each having an arbitrary
distribution. The system is analyzed by the semi-Markov process technique. Some reliability measures of
interest to system designers as well as operations managers have been obtained. Explicit expressions for
the Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of the distribution function of the first passage time, mean time to
system failure, pointwise availability, and steady state availability of the system are obtained . Busy
period by the server, expected number of visits by the server and the cost per unit time in steady state of
the system are also obtained. Several important results have been derived as particular cases.

Keywords: Availability, Failure rate , Cost function, Busy period.
I. Introduction and Description of The System
Many authors have studied the single-unit system under different conditions and obtain various
reliability parameters by using the theory of regenerative process, Markov renewal process and semi-Markov
process [2, 3].
This paper investigates the model of a single-unit operating by a person who may be in good or poor
physical condition. The failure, physical conditions and repair times are stochastically independent random
variables each having an arbitrary distribution. The unit may fail in one of three ways, the first is due to
hardware failure, the second is due to human error when operator is in good physical condition and the third is
due to human error when operator is in poor physical condition. The operator reports to work in good physical
condition which may change to poor is generally distributed. He can revive to good physical condition with
another arbitrary distribution. It is assumed that when the system is down and the operator is in good physical
condition, it can’t determine as he is supposed to be at rest. Repair time distributions for the three types of
failure are taken arbitrary. Repair facility is always available with the system to repair the failed unit and after
repair of the unit becomes like new. Using the semi-Markov process technique, and the results of the
regenerative process, several reliability measures of interest to system designers are obtained as the distribution
time to the system failure. The mean time to system failure, pointwise availability and steady state availability,
busy period by the server, expected number of visits by the server and the cost per unit time in a steady state of
the system are also obtained. The results obtained by [5,6] are derived from the present paper as special cases. In
this system the following assumptions and notations are used to analysis the system.
(1) The system consists of a single unit which can operate by a person in good or poor physical condition.
(2) The unit fails in one of three ways; the first is due to hardware failure, the second is due to human error
when operator is in good physical condition and the third is due to human error when operator is in poor
physical condition.
(3) Failure, physical conditions and repair times are stochastically independent random variables each having
an arbitrary distribution.
(4) The operator reports to work in good physical condition which may change to poor and vice versa are
stochastically independent random variables each having an arbitrary distribution.
(5) When the system is down and the operator is in good physical condition, it cannot deteriorate as he is
supposed to be at rest.
(6) There is a single repair facility with the system to repair the failed unit.
(7) On repair of the failed unit, it acts like a new unit.
(8) All random variables are mutually independent.

| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 12 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…
II. Notations and States of the System

E0

state of the system at epoch t = 0,

E

set of regenerative states; {

E

set of non-regenerative state;{ S6 , S7 },as in fig. 1

f (t ), F (t )

pdf and cdf of failure time of the unit due to hardware failure,
pdf and cdf of failure time of the unit due to human error; where, the operator is in good

f1 (t ), F (t )
1

S0 , S1, S2 , S3 , S4 , S5 }, as in fig. 1,

physical condition,

f 2 (t ), F2 (t )

pdf and cdf of failure time of the unit due to human error; where, the operator is in poor

physical condition,

l (t ), L(t )
h(t ), H (t )
g (t ), G(t )
g1 (t ), G1(t )

pdf and cdf of change of physical condition from good mode to poor mode,
pdf and cdf of change of physical condition from poor mode to good mode,
pdf and cdf of time to repair the unit from hardware failure,
pdf and cdf of time to repair the unit from human error; where the operator is in good physical

condition,

g2 (t ), G2 (t )

pdf and cdf of time to repair the unit due to

human error; where the operator is in poor

physical condition,

qij (t ), Qij (t )

pdf and cdf of first passage time from regenerative state i to a regenerative state i or to a

failed state j without visiting any other regenerative state in (0, t]; i, j  E,
(
(
qijk ) (t ), QijK ) (t ) pdf and cdf of first passage time from regenerative state i to a regenerative state j or to a

j  E, K  E
i, j  E ,

failed state j without visiting any other regenerative state in (0,t]; i,

pij
k
pij
 i (t )

Ai (t )

one step transition probability from state I to state j;

probability that the system in state i goes to state j passing through state k;

,

i, j  E , K  E

cdf of first passage time from regenerative state i to a failed state,
probability that the system is in upstate at instant t given that the system started from regenerative state

i at time t = 0,

M i (t )

probability that the system having started from state i is up at time t without making any transition into

any other regenerative state,
Bi (t ) probability that the server is busy at time t given that the system entered regenerative state i at time t =
0,

Vi (t )

expected number of visits by the server given that the system started from regenerative state i at time

t = 0,

ij

contribution mean sojourn time in state i when transition is to state j is

i

Mean sojourn time in state i,

~
 Q ij (0)  q * (0) ,
ij

(
i   [ ij    ijk ) ] ,
j

k



~
st
Symbol for Laplace-Stieltjes transform, e.g. F(s)  e d F( t ) ,

~

f ( s)   e st f (t ) dt ,
*

*

Symbol for Laplace transform, e.g.

Ⓢ

Symbol for Stieltjes convolution, e.g. A(t) Ⓢ B(t) =

t

 B(t  u) dA(u) ,
0

| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 13 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…
©

Symbol for ordinary convolution, e.g.

a(t )

©

b(t ) 

t

 a (u ) b(t  u ) du
0

For simplicity, whenever integration limits are (0, ), they are not written.
Symbols used for the state
o
Operative unit,
d
The physical condition is good,
p
The physical condition is poor,
The failed unit is under repair when failed due to hardware failure,

r

r
1

The failed unit is under repair when failed due to human error; where the operator is in good physical

condition,

r2

The failed unit is under repair when failed due to human error; where the operator is in poor physical

condition,
The unit is in continued repair; where the failure is due to hardware failure,
R
The unit is in continued repair when failed due to human error; where the operator is in poor physical
R2
condition.
Considering these symbols, the system may be in one of the following states at any instant where the first
letter denotes the mode of unit and the second corresponds to physical condition
S0  (o , d)
,
S1  (o , p)
,
S2  (r , d)
, S3  (r1 , d)
,
S4  (r , p)
,
S5  (r2 , p)
,
S6  (R , d)
, S7  (R2 , d) .
Stated and possible transitions between them are shown in Fig. 1.

Fig.1 state transition diagram
Up state

Down state

Regeneration point

III. Transition Probabilities And Mean Sojourn Times
It can be observed that the time points of entry into

Si

 E ,i=0,1,2,3,4,5 are regenerative points so

these states are regenerative. Let T 0 ( 0) , T1 , T2 , . . . denote the time points at which the system enters any
state Si  E and Xn denotes the state visited at the time point T n+1 , i.e. just after the transition at T n+1 , then
{Xn , Tn} is a Markov-renewal process with state space E and
Qij = P [ Xn+1 = j , Tn+1 = Tn < t | Xn = i ]
is a semi-Markov kernel over E. The stochastic matrix of the embedded Markov chain is
P = (pij) = (Qij()) = Q() and the nonzero elements pij are
p01 =

 (t) F(t) F (t) dt
1

| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

,

p02 =

 f (t) L(t) F (t) dt

www.ijmer.com

1

,

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 14 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…
p03 =

 f (t) L(t) F(t) dt ,

p14 =

 f (t) F (t) H(t) dt

p10 =

 h(t) F(t) F (t) dt ,

,

p15 =

f

,

p41 =

 g(t ) H(t ) dt

1

2

p20 = p30 = 1

p46 =



p51 =

g

h ( t ) G ( t ) dt

,

2 ( t ) F( t ) H( t ) dt ,

,



6
p (40)  h (u ) g(t ) L(t  u ) dt du

,

2 ( t ) H ( t ) dt

2

p57 =

 h(t ) G

2 ( t ) dt

,

,

(7)
p50   h(u ) g 2 (t ) L (t  u ) du dt.

(3.1)

The mean sojourn times i in state Si are
0 =

 F(t) F (t) L(t) dt ,

1 =

1

 G(t) L(t) dt
 =  G ( t ) H( t ) dt

 F(t) F (t) H(t) dt ,
2

 G (t) L(t) dt
 =  G H ( t ) dt

2 =

,

3 =

4

,

5

1

2

,
,

(.3.2)

IV. Mean Time To System Failure
Time to system failure can be regarded as the first passage to failed states S6 , S7 which are considered
as absorbing. By probabilistic arguments, the following recursive relations for i(t) are obtained
0(t) = Q02(t) + Q03(t) + Q01(t) Ⓢ 1(t)
,
1(t) = Q14(t) + Q15(t) + Q10(t) Ⓢ 0(t)
(4.1)
Taking Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of equations (4.1) and solving for
brevity, it follows

~ (s)
0

= N0(s) / D0(s)

,

~ (s)
 0 , dropping the argument “s” for
(4.2)

where
~
~
~ ~
~
N0(s) = Q 02  Q 03  Q 01 (Q14  Q15 )
and
~ ~
D0(s) = 1  Q 01Q10
.
The mean time to system failure with starting state S0 is given by
MTSF = N0 / D0 ,
where
N0 = 0 + p01 1
and
D0 = 1  p01 p10 .

(4.3)
(4.4)

(4.5)

V. Availability Analysis
Elementary probability arguments yield the following relations for Ai(t)
A0(t) = M0(t) + q01(t)  A1(t) + q02(t)  A2(t) + q03(t)  A3(t),
A1(t) = M1(t) + q10(t)  A0(t) + q14(t)  A4(t) + q15(t)  A5(t),
A2(t) = q20(t)  A0(t) ,
A3(t) = q30(t)  A0(t) ,
A4(t) = q41(t)  A1(t) +

6
q (40) (t )

 A0(t) ,

| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 15 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…
(7
A5(t) = q51(t)  A1(t) + q 50) ( t )  A0(t).

(5.1)

where

M 0 (t )  F( t ) F1 ( t ) L( t )

, M1 (t )  F( t ) F2 ( t ) H( t )

.

(5.2)

*

Taking Laplace transforms of equations (5.1) and solving for A 0 (s) , it gives

A * (s) = A1(s) / D1(s) .
0

(5.3)

where
*
*
*
*
*
* *
N1(s) = M 0 (1  q14q 41  q15q 51 )  M1 q 01
and

6
*
*
*
*
* (7
D1 ( s)  (1  q * q *  q * q * ) (1  q14q *  q15q * )  q * (q10  q14q (40)*  q15q 50)* )
02 20
03 30
41
51
01

,
(5.4)

The steady state availability of the system is
A0() = N1 / D1 ,
where
N1 = 0 (1  p14p41  p15p51) + 1p01
and
D1 = (1  p01) (14p41 + p1441 + p1551 + 15p51)

(5.5)

(7
+ (1  p14p41  p15p51) (02 + p0220 + p0330 + 03)+ 01 (p10 + p14 p (6) + p15 p 50) ) + p01 (10 + 14 p (6) + p14  ( 6)
40
40
40
(7
(7
+ p15  50) + 15 p 50) ) .

(5.6)

VI. Busy Period Analysis
Elementary probability arguments yield the following relations for B i(t)
B0(t) = q01(t)  B1(t) + q02(t)  B2(t) + q03(t)  B3(t),
B1(t) = q10(t)  B0(t) + q14(t)  B4(t) + q15(t)  B5(t),
B2(t) = V2(t) + q20(t)  B0(t),
B3(t) = V3(t) + q30(t)  B0(t) ,
B4(t) = V4(t) + q41(t)  B1(t)+ q40 (t )  B0(t) ,
(6)

(7
B5(t) = V5(t) + q51(t)  B1(t) + q 50) ( t )  B0(t) ,

(6.1)
where

G 1 ( t ) L( t )

V2(t) = G ( t ) L( t )

,

V3(t) =

V4(t) = G ( t ) H( t )

,

V5(t) = G 2 ( t ) H( t )

,
.
*

Taking Laplace transforms of equations (6.1) and solving for B 0 (s) , it gives

B* (s) = N2(s) / D1(s)
0

,

(6.2)

where
*
*
*
*
* *
* *
*
*
*
*
*
N2(s) = (q02V2  q03V3 )(1  q14q41  q15q51 )  q01 (q14V4  q15V5 ),
and

(6.3)

D1 (s) is given by (5.4).
In long run the fraction of time for which the server is busy is given by
B0 () = N2 / D1 ,
where
N2 = (p022 + p033) (1  p14p41  p15p51) + p01 (p144 + p155)
and
D1 is given by (5.6) .
The expected busy period of server facility in (0, t] is
b(t) = expected busy time of the repairman in (0, t] .
The repairman may be busy during (0, t] starting from initial state S0 .

| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com

(6.4)
(6.5)

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 16 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…
Hence
t

b(t) =

B

0 ( u ) du

,

0

so that

 * (s)  B* (s) / s .
b
0
Thus one can evaluate b(t) by taking inverse Laplace transform of
Expected idle time of the repairman in (0, t] is
1 (t) = 1  b (t) .

 * (s)
b

.

VII. Expected Number of Visits by The Repairman
Elementary probability arguments yield the following relations for Bi (t)
V0(t) = Q01(t) Ⓢ[1 + V1(t)] + Q02(t) Ⓢ [1 + V2(t)] + Q03(t) Ⓢ [1 + V3(t)] ,
V1(t) = Q10(t) Ⓢ [1 + V0(t)] + Q14(t) Ⓢ [1 + V4(t)] + Q15(t) Ⓢ [1 + V5(t)] ,
V2(t) = Q20(t) Ⓢ V0(t)
,
V3(t) = Q30(t) Ⓢ V0(t)
,
( 6)

V4(t) = Q41(t) Ⓢ V1(t) + Q 40 ( t ) Ⓢ V0(t)
V5(t) = Q51(t) Ⓢ V1(t) +

,

(7
Q 50) (t ) Ⓢ V0(t)

,

(7.1)

Taking Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of equations (7.1) and solving for
brevity, it follows
V0* (s) = N3 (s) / D2 (s) ,
where
N3(s) =
and
D2(s) =

V0* (s) , dropping the argument “s” for
(7.2)

~ ~
~
~ ~ ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~
(1  Q 01  Q 02  Q 03 ) (1  Q14Q 41  Q15Q 51)  Q 01 (Q10  Q14  Q15 )
~ ~
~ ~
~ ~
~ ~
(1  Q 02Q 20  Q 03Q 30 ) (1  Q14Q 41  Q15Q 51 )
~
~
~ ~
~ ~ (7
 Q 01 (Q10  Q14Q (6)  Q15Q 50) )
40

(7.3)

In steady state, number of visits per unit is given by
V0 () = N3 / D2 ,
where
N3 = 1 + p01  p14p41  p15p51
and

(7.4)

(7
D2 = p01 [1  p10  p14 (p41 + p (6) )  p15 (p51 + p 50) )] .
40

VIII.

Cost Analysis

The cost function of the system obtained by considering the mean-up time of the system, expected busy period
of the server and the expected number of visits by the server, therefore, the expected profit incurred in (0, t] is
C(t) = expected total revenue in (0, t]
 expected total service cost in (0, t]
 expected cost of visits by server in (0, t]
= K1 up (t)  K2 b (t)  K3 V0 (t).
(8.1)
The expected profit per unit time in steady-state is
C = K1 A0  K2 B0  K3 V0
(8.2)
where K1 is the revenue per unit up time, K2 is the cost per unit time for which system is under repair and K3 is
the cost per visit by repair facility.

IX. Special Cases
9.1. The single unit with failure and repair exponentially distributed :
Let

failure rate of the unit due to hardware failure ,
| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 17 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…








failure rate of the unit due to human error; where the operator is in good physical condition ,
failure rate of the unit due to human error; where the operator is in poor physical condition ,
change of physical condition rate from good mode to poor mode ,
change of physical condition rate from poor mode to good mode ,
repair rate of the unit from hardware failure ,
repair rate of the unit from human error; where the operator is in good physical condition ,
repair rate of the unit from human error; where the operator is in poor physical condition .

Transition probabilities are
p01 =  / ( +  + )
, p02 =  / ( +  + ),
p14 =  / ( +  + )
, p15 =  / ( +  + ) ,

p03 =  / ( +  + ),
p41 =  / ( + ),

p51 =  / ( + )

6
p (40)

(7
p 50)

, p57 =  / ( + )

,

p10 =  / ( +  + ,
p46 =  / ( + ),

=   / ( + ) ( + ),

=    / ( + ) ( + ).

The mean sojourn times are
0 = 1 / ( +  + ),
1 = 1 / ( +  + ),
4 = 1 / ( + ),
5 = 1 / ( + ) .

ˆ ˆ
MTSF= N 2 / D1 where
in this case,

ˆ
N0 

1
(  

2 = 1 / ( + ),


1

)


3 = 1 / ( + ),


 , D  1

ˆ
 ) 0
          
(   


ˆ
M i (t ) are

ˆ
M 0 (t )  e  (    )t

ˆ
M1 (t )  e(   )t .

,

The steady state availability of the system is

ˆ
ˆ ˆ
ˆ
A0 ()  N1 / D1 where, N1 
ˆ
D1 



 
1
 

1 
 (   )  (   )   (     )  ,
(     )  (     ) 


1




, 1 
(     ) 
(     ) 

1

  
1
1   
1
1 








 (   )  (     ) (   )  (   )  (     ) (   )  



 
1
  
1 
 (   )  (   )  
(     ) 
(     ) 

1

 (   )
 

 (     )      
2

 (     ) (     )


 ,



 2
 2




1 
  2(   ) 
2
2
2
2 
 (   )(   ) (   )(   ) 
 (   )  (   ) (   ) (   )  


in this case

ˆ
Vi (t ) are

ˆ
ˆ
V2 (t )  e  (  )t ,V3 (t )  e  (   )t
ˆ
ˆ
V (t )  e  (  )t ,V (t )  e  (  )t
4

5

.
In long run, the function of time for which the server is busy is given by

ˆ
ˆ ˆ
B 0 ()  N 2 / D1 ,
where

ˆ
N2 

 1
 
  
1
1 
1





 1 


(    )  (  ) (  )   (    )  (  ) (  )  



| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 18 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…
+

 
 




(    ) (    )  (  ) (  ) 

.
In steady state, number of visits per unit is given by

ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
V0 ()  N 3 / D 2 , where , N 3  1 
ˆ
D2 

 
 

1




(    ) (    )  (  ) (  ) 






 


1 
1 

(    )  (     ) (     ) (  )  (  ) 



(     ) (  )

,


 

1 

(   )  



The expected profit per unit time in steady state is

ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
C  K1A 0  K 2 B 0  K 3 V0 .
9.2 Numerical Example :
Let K1 = 2000, K2 = 100,

K3 = 50,  = 0.3 ,

 = 0.7 ,  = 0.5,  = 0.6 ,  = 0.4,

 = 0.1

Table 1
C

0.1

 = 0.3
1024.2690

 = 0.5
1298.3750

 = 0.8
1564.9260

0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9

826.5411
639.8087
476.2774
330.6919
199.2988
100.3174
51.9091
23.8333

1075.1180
890.6446
734.9694
601.2720
484.7160
381.7681
189.7883
206.7642

1322.3090
1123.4460
957.9896
818.3685
698.9977
595.7105
505.3575
425.5283

Fig. 2
Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to hardware failure and the cost per unit time.
Let K1 = 2000
, K2 = 100, K3 = 50,  = 0.5 ,
 = 0.4 , = 0.5,  = 0.6 ,  = 0.5 ,  = 0.1

| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 19 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…
Table 2

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9

C
 = 0.4
998.1833
785.9746
612.1279
464.8877
336.9454
223.4917
121.2211
27.7779
10.5644

 = 0.6
1226.7330
1014.0950
842.9411
700.7023
579.4864
474.0720
380.8579
297.2745
221.4357

 = 0.8
1401.331
1183.079
1008.1970
863.8236
741.7718
636.5713
544.4236
462.6036
389.1040

Fig. 3
Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to human error ; where the operator is in good physical
condition and the cost per unit time
Let K1 = 5000 , K2 = 150, K3 = 20,  = 0.3 ,  = 0.1 , = 0.7,  = 0.1 ,  = 0.1 ,  = 0.1
Table 3

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9

C
 = 0.2
1884.574
1808.792
1754.425
1717.041
1693.305
1680.808
1677.841
1673.205
1669.083

 = 0.4
1657.749
1628.560
1603.204
1582.434
1566.145
1553.974
1545.511
1540.367
1538.083

 = 0.6
1479.912
1474.749
1466.649
1458.143
1450.294
1443.551
1438.081
1433.920
1431.036

Fig. 4
| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 20 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…
Relation between the failure rate of the unit due
operator is in poor physical condition and the cost per unit time.
Let
 = 0.3 ,
 = 0.7 ,
 = 0.5 .
Table 4
MTSF
 = 0.2
 = 0.5

0.1
2.2059
1.9565
0.2
1.8182
1.6522
0.3
1.5455
1.4286
0.4
1.3433
1.2575
0.5
1.1875
1.1224
0.6
1.0638
1.0132
0.7
0.9633
0.9231
0.8
0.8800
0.8475
0.9
0.8099
0.7831

Fig. 5.

to

human

error

;

where

the

 = 0.8
1.8103
1.5493
1.3529
1.2000
1.0776
0.9774
0.8940
0.8235
0.7632



Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to hardware failure and the mean time to system failure.
Let
 = 0.3 ,
 = 0.9 ,
 = 0.5 .
Table 5
MTSF
 = 0.2
 = 0.5
 = 0.8

0.1
2.0652
1.7188
1.5244
0.2
1.7431
1.5172
1.3812
0.3
1.5079
1.3580
1.2626
0.4
1.3287
1.2291
1.1628
0.5
1.1875
1.1224
1.0776
0.6
1.0734
1.0329
1.0040
0.7
0.9794
0.9565
0.9398
0.8
0.9005
0.8907
0.8834
0.9
0.8333
0.8333
0.8333

Fig. 6.
| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com


| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 21 -|
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…
Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to human error ; where the operator is in good physical
condition and the mean time to system failure.

Let
 = 0.2 ,
 = 0.9 ,
 = 0.1 .
Table 6

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9

MTSF
 = 0.1
1.0638
1.0169
0.9859
0.9639
0.9474
0.9346
0.9244
0.9160
0.9091

 = 0.4
1.000
0.9783
0.9615
0.9483
0.9375
0.9286
0.9215
0.9146
0.9091

 = 0.7
0.9735
0.9600
0.9489
0.9396
0.9317
0.9249
0.9189
0.9137
0.9091

Fig. 7.
Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to human error ; where the operator is in poor physical
condition and the mean time to system failure.

X. Summary
Expressions for various system performance characteristics are drawn by using semi-Markov processes
and regenerative point technique. By using these expressions, the analytical as well numerical solutions of
measures of performance can be obtained for the system in transient and steady states.
In each figure we vary the parameter in question and fix the reset for consistency. It is evident from
figures 2-7 that the increase in failure rates (hardware failure and human error where the operating is in good
/bad physical condition) induces decrease in MTSF, and cost profit.

REFERENCES
[1].
[2].
[3].
[4].
[5].
[6].

Barlow, R.E And Proschan, F., “Mathematical Theory Of Reliability”, New York, John Wiley, 1965.
Dhillon, B.S., “Stochastic Models For Producing Human Reliability”, Microelectron. Reliab., 22, 491, 1982.
Dhillon, B.S., “On Human Reliability Bibliography”, Microelectron. Reliab., 20, 371, 1980.
Feller, W., “An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications”, Col. 2, New York, John Wiley, 1957.
Goel, L.R., Kumar, A., Rastogi, A.K., “Stochastic Behaviour Of Man-Machine Systems Operating Under Different
Weather Conditions”, Microelectron. Reliab., 25, No. 1, 87-91, 1985.
Mokaddis, G.S., Tawfek, M.L., El-Hssia, S.A.M., “Reliability Analysis Of Man-Machine System Operating Subject
To Physical Conditions”, Has Been Accepted For Publication In “Microelectronics And Reliability”, England, 1996.

| IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 |

www.ijmer.com

| Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 22 -|

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Destaque

Security of Data in Cloud Environment Using DPaaS
Security of Data in Cloud Environment Using DPaaSSecurity of Data in Cloud Environment Using DPaaS
Security of Data in Cloud Environment Using DPaaS
IJMER
 
Cu31420423
Cu31420423Cu31420423
Cu31420423
IJMER
 
Website design
Website designWebsite design
Website design
denise2228
 
A044010114
A044010114A044010114
A044010114
IJMER
 
Ax32739746
Ax32739746Ax32739746
Ax32739746
IJMER
 
Da3210751081
Da3210751081Da3210751081
Da3210751081
IJMER
 
Java script calc by karan chanana
Java script calc by karan chananaJava script calc by karan chanana
Java script calc by karan chanana
karnchanana
 
Aq31101108
Aq31101108Aq31101108
Aq31101108
IJMER
 

Destaque (18)

Security of Data in Cloud Environment Using DPaaS
Security of Data in Cloud Environment Using DPaaSSecurity of Data in Cloud Environment Using DPaaS
Security of Data in Cloud Environment Using DPaaS
 
Cu31420423
Cu31420423Cu31420423
Cu31420423
 
Website design
Website designWebsite design
Website design
 
A044010114
A044010114A044010114
A044010114
 
Securing Personal Information in Data Mining
Securing Personal Information in Data MiningSecuring Personal Information in Data Mining
Securing Personal Information in Data Mining
 
A Survey of User Authentication Schemes for Mobile Device
A Survey of User Authentication Schemes for Mobile DeviceA Survey of User Authentication Schemes for Mobile Device
A Survey of User Authentication Schemes for Mobile Device
 
Ax32739746
Ax32739746Ax32739746
Ax32739746
 
Time Dependent Quadratic Demand Inventory Models when Delay in Payments is Ac...
Time Dependent Quadratic Demand Inventory Models when Delay in Payments is Ac...Time Dependent Quadratic Demand Inventory Models when Delay in Payments is Ac...
Time Dependent Quadratic Demand Inventory Models when Delay in Payments is Ac...
 
User Navigation Pattern Prediction from Web Log Data: A Survey
User Navigation Pattern Prediction from Web Log Data: A SurveyUser Navigation Pattern Prediction from Web Log Data: A Survey
User Navigation Pattern Prediction from Web Log Data: A Survey
 
Sat Words hit list II
Sat Words hit list IISat Words hit list II
Sat Words hit list II
 
Effect of Co doping on the structural and physical properties of SrC4H4O6.3H2...
Effect of Co doping on the structural and physical properties of SrC4H4O6.3H2...Effect of Co doping on the structural and physical properties of SrC4H4O6.3H2...
Effect of Co doping on the structural and physical properties of SrC4H4O6.3H2...
 
Da3210751081
Da3210751081Da3210751081
Da3210751081
 
Some Operation Equation and Applications
Some Operation Equation and ApplicationsSome Operation Equation and Applications
Some Operation Equation and Applications
 
Java script calc by karan chanana
Java script calc by karan chananaJava script calc by karan chanana
Java script calc by karan chanana
 
Wheel Speed Signal Time-Frequency Transform and Tire Pressure Monitoring Sys...
Wheel Speed Signal Time-Frequency Transform and Tire  Pressure Monitoring Sys...Wheel Speed Signal Time-Frequency Transform and Tire  Pressure Monitoring Sys...
Wheel Speed Signal Time-Frequency Transform and Tire Pressure Monitoring Sys...
 
Experimental Study of the Fatigue Strength of Glass fiber epoxy and Chapstan ...
Experimental Study of the Fatigue Strength of Glass fiber epoxy and Chapstan ...Experimental Study of the Fatigue Strength of Glass fiber epoxy and Chapstan ...
Experimental Study of the Fatigue Strength of Glass fiber epoxy and Chapstan ...
 
Speech Compression Using Wavelets
Speech Compression Using Wavelets Speech Compression Using Wavelets
Speech Compression Using Wavelets
 
Aq31101108
Aq31101108Aq31101108
Aq31101108
 

Semelhante a Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different Physical Conditions

Parameter study of stable walking gaits for nao humanoid robot
Parameter study of stable walking gaits for nao humanoid robotParameter study of stable walking gaits for nao humanoid robot
Parameter study of stable walking gaits for nao humanoid robot
eSAT Journals
 
Paper id 36201535
Paper id 36201535Paper id 36201535
Paper id 36201535
IJRAT
 

Semelhante a Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different Physical Conditions (20)

Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different...
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different...Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different...
Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different...
 
Probabilistic Modeling and Performance Analysis of A 2(K)-Out-Of-3(N) System ...
Probabilistic Modeling and Performance Analysis of A 2(K)-Out-Of-3(N) System ...Probabilistic Modeling and Performance Analysis of A 2(K)-Out-Of-3(N) System ...
Probabilistic Modeling and Performance Analysis of A 2(K)-Out-Of-3(N) System ...
 
International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER)
International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER)International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER)
International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER)
 
N0460284100
N0460284100N0460284100
N0460284100
 
Stochastic Analysis of a Cold Standby System with Server Failure
Stochastic Analysis of a Cold Standby System with Server FailureStochastic Analysis of a Cold Standby System with Server Failure
Stochastic Analysis of a Cold Standby System with Server Failure
 
IRJET- Two-Class Priority Queueing System with Restricted Number of Priority ...
IRJET- Two-Class Priority Queueing System with Restricted Number of Priority ...IRJET- Two-Class Priority Queueing System with Restricted Number of Priority ...
IRJET- Two-Class Priority Queueing System with Restricted Number of Priority ...
 
Simultaneous State and Actuator Fault Estimation With Fuzzy Descriptor PMID a...
Simultaneous State and Actuator Fault Estimation With Fuzzy Descriptor PMID a...Simultaneous State and Actuator Fault Estimation With Fuzzy Descriptor PMID a...
Simultaneous State and Actuator Fault Estimation With Fuzzy Descriptor PMID a...
 
Robust fault detection for switched positive linear systems with time varying...
Robust fault detection for switched positive linear systems with time varying...Robust fault detection for switched positive linear systems with time varying...
Robust fault detection for switched positive linear systems with time varying...
 
Paper id 71201933
Paper id 71201933Paper id 71201933
Paper id 71201933
 
Parameter study of stable walking gaits for nao
Parameter study of stable walking gaits for naoParameter study of stable walking gaits for nao
Parameter study of stable walking gaits for nao
 
An Exponential Observer Design for a Class of Chaotic Systems with Exponentia...
An Exponential Observer Design for a Class of Chaotic Systems with Exponentia...An Exponential Observer Design for a Class of Chaotic Systems with Exponentia...
An Exponential Observer Design for a Class of Chaotic Systems with Exponentia...
 
Sonendra kumar gupta operational readiness of a complex system under differen...
Sonendra kumar gupta operational readiness of a complex system under differen...Sonendra kumar gupta operational readiness of a complex system under differen...
Sonendra kumar gupta operational readiness of a complex system under differen...
 
Behavioural analysis of a complex manufacturing system having queue in the ma...
Behavioural analysis of a complex manufacturing system having queue in the ma...Behavioural analysis of a complex manufacturing system having queue in the ma...
Behavioural analysis of a complex manufacturing system having queue in the ma...
 
Parameter study of stable walking gaits for nao humanoid robot
Parameter study of stable walking gaits for nao humanoid robotParameter study of stable walking gaits for nao humanoid robot
Parameter study of stable walking gaits for nao humanoid robot
 
Unit 3-State-Space Analysis_all.pptx
Unit 3-State-Space Analysis_all.pptxUnit 3-State-Space Analysis_all.pptx
Unit 3-State-Space Analysis_all.pptx
 
KNL3353_Control_System_Engineering_Lectu.ppt
KNL3353_Control_System_Engineering_Lectu.pptKNL3353_Control_System_Engineering_Lectu.ppt
KNL3353_Control_System_Engineering_Lectu.ppt
 
Paper id 36201535
Paper id 36201535Paper id 36201535
Paper id 36201535
 
Risk assessment of a hydroelectric dam with parallel redundant turbine
Risk assessment of a hydroelectric dam with parallel redundant turbineRisk assessment of a hydroelectric dam with parallel redundant turbine
Risk assessment of a hydroelectric dam with parallel redundant turbine
 
DEVELOPEMENT OF GAIT GENERATION SYSTEM FOR A LOWER LIMB PROSTHESIS USING MEAS...
DEVELOPEMENT OF GAIT GENERATION SYSTEM FOR A LOWER LIMB PROSTHESIS USING MEAS...DEVELOPEMENT OF GAIT GENERATION SYSTEM FOR A LOWER LIMB PROSTHESIS USING MEAS...
DEVELOPEMENT OF GAIT GENERATION SYSTEM FOR A LOWER LIMB PROSTHESIS USING MEAS...
 
DEVELOPEMENT OF GAIT GENERATION SYSTEM FOR A LOWER LIMB PROSTHESIS USING MEAS...
DEVELOPEMENT OF GAIT GENERATION SYSTEM FOR A LOWER LIMB PROSTHESIS USING MEAS...DEVELOPEMENT OF GAIT GENERATION SYSTEM FOR A LOWER LIMB PROSTHESIS USING MEAS...
DEVELOPEMENT OF GAIT GENERATION SYSTEM FOR A LOWER LIMB PROSTHESIS USING MEAS...
 

Mais de IJMER

Fabrication & Characterization of Bio Composite Materials Based On Sunnhemp F...
Fabrication & Characterization of Bio Composite Materials Based On Sunnhemp F...Fabrication & Characterization of Bio Composite Materials Based On Sunnhemp F...
Fabrication & Characterization of Bio Composite Materials Based On Sunnhemp F...
IJMER
 
Intrusion Detection and Forensics based on decision tree and Association rule...
Intrusion Detection and Forensics based on decision tree and Association rule...Intrusion Detection and Forensics based on decision tree and Association rule...
Intrusion Detection and Forensics based on decision tree and Association rule...
IJMER
 
Material Parameter and Effect of Thermal Load on Functionally Graded Cylinders
Material Parameter and Effect of Thermal Load on Functionally Graded CylindersMaterial Parameter and Effect of Thermal Load on Functionally Graded Cylinders
Material Parameter and Effect of Thermal Load on Functionally Graded Cylinders
IJMER
 

Mais de IJMER (20)

A Study on Translucent Concrete Product and Its Properties by Using Optical F...
A Study on Translucent Concrete Product and Its Properties by Using Optical F...A Study on Translucent Concrete Product and Its Properties by Using Optical F...
A Study on Translucent Concrete Product and Its Properties by Using Optical F...
 
Developing Cost Effective Automation for Cotton Seed Delinting
Developing Cost Effective Automation for Cotton Seed DelintingDeveloping Cost Effective Automation for Cotton Seed Delinting
Developing Cost Effective Automation for Cotton Seed Delinting
 
Study & Testing Of Bio-Composite Material Based On Munja Fibre
Study & Testing Of Bio-Composite Material Based On Munja FibreStudy & Testing Of Bio-Composite Material Based On Munja Fibre
Study & Testing Of Bio-Composite Material Based On Munja Fibre
 
Hybrid Engine (Stirling Engine + IC Engine + Electric Motor)
Hybrid Engine (Stirling Engine + IC Engine + Electric Motor)Hybrid Engine (Stirling Engine + IC Engine + Electric Motor)
Hybrid Engine (Stirling Engine + IC Engine + Electric Motor)
 
Fabrication & Characterization of Bio Composite Materials Based On Sunnhemp F...
Fabrication & Characterization of Bio Composite Materials Based On Sunnhemp F...Fabrication & Characterization of Bio Composite Materials Based On Sunnhemp F...
Fabrication & Characterization of Bio Composite Materials Based On Sunnhemp F...
 
Geochemistry and Genesis of Kammatturu Iron Ores of Devagiri Formation, Sandu...
Geochemistry and Genesis of Kammatturu Iron Ores of Devagiri Formation, Sandu...Geochemistry and Genesis of Kammatturu Iron Ores of Devagiri Formation, Sandu...
Geochemistry and Genesis of Kammatturu Iron Ores of Devagiri Formation, Sandu...
 
Experimental Investigation on Characteristic Study of the Carbon Steel C45 in...
Experimental Investigation on Characteristic Study of the Carbon Steel C45 in...Experimental Investigation on Characteristic Study of the Carbon Steel C45 in...
Experimental Investigation on Characteristic Study of the Carbon Steel C45 in...
 
Non linear analysis of Robot Gun Support Structure using Equivalent Dynamic A...
Non linear analysis of Robot Gun Support Structure using Equivalent Dynamic A...Non linear analysis of Robot Gun Support Structure using Equivalent Dynamic A...
Non linear analysis of Robot Gun Support Structure using Equivalent Dynamic A...
 
Static Analysis of Go-Kart Chassis by Analytical and Solid Works Simulation
Static Analysis of Go-Kart Chassis by Analytical and Solid Works SimulationStatic Analysis of Go-Kart Chassis by Analytical and Solid Works Simulation
Static Analysis of Go-Kart Chassis by Analytical and Solid Works Simulation
 
High Speed Effortless Bicycle
High Speed Effortless BicycleHigh Speed Effortless Bicycle
High Speed Effortless Bicycle
 
Integration of Struts & Spring & Hibernate for Enterprise Applications
Integration of Struts & Spring & Hibernate for Enterprise ApplicationsIntegration of Struts & Spring & Hibernate for Enterprise Applications
Integration of Struts & Spring & Hibernate for Enterprise Applications
 
Microcontroller Based Automatic Sprinkler Irrigation System
Microcontroller Based Automatic Sprinkler Irrigation SystemMicrocontroller Based Automatic Sprinkler Irrigation System
Microcontroller Based Automatic Sprinkler Irrigation System
 
On some locally closed sets and spaces in Ideal Topological Spaces
On some locally closed sets and spaces in Ideal Topological SpacesOn some locally closed sets and spaces in Ideal Topological Spaces
On some locally closed sets and spaces in Ideal Topological Spaces
 
Intrusion Detection and Forensics based on decision tree and Association rule...
Intrusion Detection and Forensics based on decision tree and Association rule...Intrusion Detection and Forensics based on decision tree and Association rule...
Intrusion Detection and Forensics based on decision tree and Association rule...
 
Natural Language Ambiguity and its Effect on Machine Learning
Natural Language Ambiguity and its Effect on Machine LearningNatural Language Ambiguity and its Effect on Machine Learning
Natural Language Ambiguity and its Effect on Machine Learning
 
Evolvea Frameworkfor SelectingPrime Software DevelopmentProcess
Evolvea Frameworkfor SelectingPrime Software DevelopmentProcessEvolvea Frameworkfor SelectingPrime Software DevelopmentProcess
Evolvea Frameworkfor SelectingPrime Software DevelopmentProcess
 
Material Parameter and Effect of Thermal Load on Functionally Graded Cylinders
Material Parameter and Effect of Thermal Load on Functionally Graded CylindersMaterial Parameter and Effect of Thermal Load on Functionally Graded Cylinders
Material Parameter and Effect of Thermal Load on Functionally Graded Cylinders
 
Studies On Energy Conservation And Audit
Studies On Energy Conservation And AuditStudies On Energy Conservation And Audit
Studies On Energy Conservation And Audit
 
An Implementation of I2C Slave Interface using Verilog HDL
An Implementation of I2C Slave Interface using Verilog HDLAn Implementation of I2C Slave Interface using Verilog HDL
An Implementation of I2C Slave Interface using Verilog HDL
 
Discrete Model of Two Predators competing for One Prey
Discrete Model of Two Predators competing for One PreyDiscrete Model of Two Predators competing for One Prey
Discrete Model of Two Predators competing for One Prey
 

Último

Artificial Intelligence: Facts and Myths
Artificial Intelligence: Facts and MythsArtificial Intelligence: Facts and Myths
Artificial Intelligence: Facts and Myths
Joaquim Jorge
 
Histor y of HAM Radio presentation slide
Histor y of HAM Radio presentation slideHistor y of HAM Radio presentation slide
Histor y of HAM Radio presentation slide
vu2urc
 

Último (20)

Factors to Consider When Choosing Accounts Payable Services Providers.pptx
Factors to Consider When Choosing Accounts Payable Services Providers.pptxFactors to Consider When Choosing Accounts Payable Services Providers.pptx
Factors to Consider When Choosing Accounts Payable Services Providers.pptx
 
Handwritten Text Recognition for manuscripts and early printed texts
Handwritten Text Recognition for manuscripts and early printed textsHandwritten Text Recognition for manuscripts and early printed texts
Handwritten Text Recognition for manuscripts and early printed texts
 
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...
 
Boost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivity
Boost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivityBoost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivity
Boost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivity
 
Understanding Discord NSFW Servers A Guide for Responsible Users.pdf
Understanding Discord NSFW Servers A Guide for Responsible Users.pdfUnderstanding Discord NSFW Servers A Guide for Responsible Users.pdf
Understanding Discord NSFW Servers A Guide for Responsible Users.pdf
 
Slack Application Development 101 Slides
Slack Application Development 101 SlidesSlack Application Development 101 Slides
Slack Application Development 101 Slides
 
Presentation on how to chat with PDF using ChatGPT code interpreter
Presentation on how to chat with PDF using ChatGPT code interpreterPresentation on how to chat with PDF using ChatGPT code interpreter
Presentation on how to chat with PDF using ChatGPT code interpreter
 
The Role of Taxonomy and Ontology in Semantic Layers - Heather Hedden.pdf
The Role of Taxonomy and Ontology in Semantic Layers - Heather Hedden.pdfThe Role of Taxonomy and Ontology in Semantic Layers - Heather Hedden.pdf
The Role of Taxonomy and Ontology in Semantic Layers - Heather Hedden.pdf
 
🐬 The future of MySQL is Postgres 🐘
🐬  The future of MySQL is Postgres   🐘🐬  The future of MySQL is Postgres   🐘
🐬 The future of MySQL is Postgres 🐘
 
Mastering MySQL Database Architecture: Deep Dive into MySQL Shell and MySQL R...
Mastering MySQL Database Architecture: Deep Dive into MySQL Shell and MySQL R...Mastering MySQL Database Architecture: Deep Dive into MySQL Shell and MySQL R...
Mastering MySQL Database Architecture: Deep Dive into MySQL Shell and MySQL R...
 
The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024
The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024
The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024
 
Breaking the Kubernetes Kill Chain: Host Path Mount
Breaking the Kubernetes Kill Chain: Host Path MountBreaking the Kubernetes Kill Chain: Host Path Mount
Breaking the Kubernetes Kill Chain: Host Path Mount
 
Artificial Intelligence: Facts and Myths
Artificial Intelligence: Facts and MythsArtificial Intelligence: Facts and Myths
Artificial Intelligence: Facts and Myths
 
Advantages of Hiring UIUX Design Service Providers for Your Business
Advantages of Hiring UIUX Design Service Providers for Your BusinessAdvantages of Hiring UIUX Design Service Providers for Your Business
Advantages of Hiring UIUX Design Service Providers for Your Business
 
Histor y of HAM Radio presentation slide
Histor y of HAM Radio presentation slideHistor y of HAM Radio presentation slide
Histor y of HAM Radio presentation slide
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Greater Kailash - I Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Greater Kailash - I Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Greater Kailash - I Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Greater Kailash - I Women Seeking Men
 
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt RobisonData Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
 
Apidays Singapore 2024 - Building Digital Trust in a Digital Economy by Veron...
Apidays Singapore 2024 - Building Digital Trust in a Digital Economy by Veron...Apidays Singapore 2024 - Building Digital Trust in a Digital Economy by Veron...
Apidays Singapore 2024 - Building Digital Trust in a Digital Economy by Veron...
 
How to Troubleshoot Apps for the Modern Connected Worker
How to Troubleshoot Apps for the Modern Connected WorkerHow to Troubleshoot Apps for the Modern Connected Worker
How to Troubleshoot Apps for the Modern Connected Worker
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
 

Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different Physical Conditions

  • 1. International OPEN Journal ACCESS Of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER) Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different Physical Conditions G. S. Mokaddis1, Y. M. Ayed2, H. S. Al-Hajeri3 1 Ain shams University, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Cairo, Egypt. 2 Suez University. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Suez, Egypt 3 Kuwait University. Faculty of Science, Kuwait ABSTRACT: This paper deals with the stochastic behavior of a single unit of man-machine system operating under different physical conditions. Assuming that the failure, repair and physical conditions (good - poor) times are stochastically independent random variables each having an arbitrary distribution. The system is analyzed by the semi-Markov process technique. Some reliability measures of interest to system designers as well as operations managers have been obtained. Explicit expressions for the Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of the distribution function of the first passage time, mean time to system failure, pointwise availability, and steady state availability of the system are obtained . Busy period by the server, expected number of visits by the server and the cost per unit time in steady state of the system are also obtained. Several important results have been derived as particular cases. Keywords: Availability, Failure rate , Cost function, Busy period. I. Introduction and Description of The System Many authors have studied the single-unit system under different conditions and obtain various reliability parameters by using the theory of regenerative process, Markov renewal process and semi-Markov process [2, 3]. This paper investigates the model of a single-unit operating by a person who may be in good or poor physical condition. The failure, physical conditions and repair times are stochastically independent random variables each having an arbitrary distribution. The unit may fail in one of three ways, the first is due to hardware failure, the second is due to human error when operator is in good physical condition and the third is due to human error when operator is in poor physical condition. The operator reports to work in good physical condition which may change to poor is generally distributed. He can revive to good physical condition with another arbitrary distribution. It is assumed that when the system is down and the operator is in good physical condition, it can’t determine as he is supposed to be at rest. Repair time distributions for the three types of failure are taken arbitrary. Repair facility is always available with the system to repair the failed unit and after repair of the unit becomes like new. Using the semi-Markov process technique, and the results of the regenerative process, several reliability measures of interest to system designers are obtained as the distribution time to the system failure. The mean time to system failure, pointwise availability and steady state availability, busy period by the server, expected number of visits by the server and the cost per unit time in a steady state of the system are also obtained. The results obtained by [5,6] are derived from the present paper as special cases. In this system the following assumptions and notations are used to analysis the system. (1) The system consists of a single unit which can operate by a person in good or poor physical condition. (2) The unit fails in one of three ways; the first is due to hardware failure, the second is due to human error when operator is in good physical condition and the third is due to human error when operator is in poor physical condition. (3) Failure, physical conditions and repair times are stochastically independent random variables each having an arbitrary distribution. (4) The operator reports to work in good physical condition which may change to poor and vice versa are stochastically independent random variables each having an arbitrary distribution. (5) When the system is down and the operator is in good physical condition, it cannot deteriorate as he is supposed to be at rest. (6) There is a single repair facility with the system to repair the failed unit. (7) On repair of the failed unit, it acts like a new unit. (8) All random variables are mutually independent. | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 12 -|
  • 2. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different… II. Notations and States of the System E0 state of the system at epoch t = 0, E set of regenerative states; { E set of non-regenerative state;{ S6 , S7 },as in fig. 1 f (t ), F (t ) pdf and cdf of failure time of the unit due to hardware failure, pdf and cdf of failure time of the unit due to human error; where, the operator is in good f1 (t ), F (t ) 1 S0 , S1, S2 , S3 , S4 , S5 }, as in fig. 1, physical condition, f 2 (t ), F2 (t ) pdf and cdf of failure time of the unit due to human error; where, the operator is in poor physical condition, l (t ), L(t ) h(t ), H (t ) g (t ), G(t ) g1 (t ), G1(t ) pdf and cdf of change of physical condition from good mode to poor mode, pdf and cdf of change of physical condition from poor mode to good mode, pdf and cdf of time to repair the unit from hardware failure, pdf and cdf of time to repair the unit from human error; where the operator is in good physical condition, g2 (t ), G2 (t ) pdf and cdf of time to repair the unit due to human error; where the operator is in poor physical condition, qij (t ), Qij (t ) pdf and cdf of first passage time from regenerative state i to a regenerative state i or to a failed state j without visiting any other regenerative state in (0, t]; i, j  E, ( ( qijk ) (t ), QijK ) (t ) pdf and cdf of first passage time from regenerative state i to a regenerative state j or to a j  E, K  E i, j  E , failed state j without visiting any other regenerative state in (0,t]; i, pij k pij  i (t ) Ai (t ) one step transition probability from state I to state j; probability that the system in state i goes to state j passing through state k; , i, j  E , K  E cdf of first passage time from regenerative state i to a failed state, probability that the system is in upstate at instant t given that the system started from regenerative state i at time t = 0, M i (t ) probability that the system having started from state i is up at time t without making any transition into any other regenerative state, Bi (t ) probability that the server is busy at time t given that the system entered regenerative state i at time t = 0, Vi (t ) expected number of visits by the server given that the system started from regenerative state i at time t = 0, ij contribution mean sojourn time in state i when transition is to state j is i Mean sojourn time in state i, ~  Q ij (0)  q * (0) , ij ( i   [ ij    ijk ) ] , j k  ~ st Symbol for Laplace-Stieltjes transform, e.g. F(s)  e d F( t ) , ~ f ( s)   e st f (t ) dt , * * Symbol for Laplace transform, e.g. Ⓢ Symbol for Stieltjes convolution, e.g. A(t) Ⓢ B(t) = t  B(t  u) dA(u) , 0 | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 13 -|
  • 3. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different… © Symbol for ordinary convolution, e.g. a(t ) © b(t )  t  a (u ) b(t  u ) du 0 For simplicity, whenever integration limits are (0, ), they are not written. Symbols used for the state o Operative unit, d The physical condition is good, p The physical condition is poor, The failed unit is under repair when failed due to hardware failure, r r 1 The failed unit is under repair when failed due to human error; where the operator is in good physical condition, r2 The failed unit is under repair when failed due to human error; where the operator is in poor physical condition, The unit is in continued repair; where the failure is due to hardware failure, R The unit is in continued repair when failed due to human error; where the operator is in poor physical R2 condition. Considering these symbols, the system may be in one of the following states at any instant where the first letter denotes the mode of unit and the second corresponds to physical condition S0  (o , d) , S1  (o , p) , S2  (r , d) , S3  (r1 , d) , S4  (r , p) , S5  (r2 , p) , S6  (R , d) , S7  (R2 , d) . Stated and possible transitions between them are shown in Fig. 1. Fig.1 state transition diagram Up state Down state Regeneration point III. Transition Probabilities And Mean Sojourn Times It can be observed that the time points of entry into Si  E ,i=0,1,2,3,4,5 are regenerative points so these states are regenerative. Let T 0 ( 0) , T1 , T2 , . . . denote the time points at which the system enters any state Si  E and Xn denotes the state visited at the time point T n+1 , i.e. just after the transition at T n+1 , then {Xn , Tn} is a Markov-renewal process with state space E and Qij = P [ Xn+1 = j , Tn+1 = Tn < t | Xn = i ] is a semi-Markov kernel over E. The stochastic matrix of the embedded Markov chain is P = (pij) = (Qij()) = Q() and the nonzero elements pij are p01 =  (t) F(t) F (t) dt 1 | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | , p02 =  f (t) L(t) F (t) dt www.ijmer.com 1 , | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 14 -|
  • 4. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different… p03 =  f (t) L(t) F(t) dt , p14 =  f (t) F (t) H(t) dt p10 =  h(t) F(t) F (t) dt , , p15 = f , p41 =  g(t ) H(t ) dt 1 2 p20 = p30 = 1 p46 =  p51 = g h ( t ) G ( t ) dt , 2 ( t ) F( t ) H( t ) dt , ,  6 p (40)  h (u ) g(t ) L(t  u ) dt du , 2 ( t ) H ( t ) dt 2 p57 =  h(t ) G 2 ( t ) dt , , (7) p50   h(u ) g 2 (t ) L (t  u ) du dt. (3.1) The mean sojourn times i in state Si are 0 =  F(t) F (t) L(t) dt , 1 = 1  G(t) L(t) dt  =  G ( t ) H( t ) dt  F(t) F (t) H(t) dt , 2  G (t) L(t) dt  =  G H ( t ) dt 2 = , 3 = 4 , 5 1 2 , , (.3.2) IV. Mean Time To System Failure Time to system failure can be regarded as the first passage to failed states S6 , S7 which are considered as absorbing. By probabilistic arguments, the following recursive relations for i(t) are obtained 0(t) = Q02(t) + Q03(t) + Q01(t) Ⓢ 1(t) , 1(t) = Q14(t) + Q15(t) + Q10(t) Ⓢ 0(t) (4.1) Taking Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of equations (4.1) and solving for brevity, it follows ~ (s) 0 = N0(s) / D0(s) , ~ (s)  0 , dropping the argument “s” for (4.2) where ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N0(s) = Q 02  Q 03  Q 01 (Q14  Q15 ) and ~ ~ D0(s) = 1  Q 01Q10 . The mean time to system failure with starting state S0 is given by MTSF = N0 / D0 , where N0 = 0 + p01 1 and D0 = 1  p01 p10 . (4.3) (4.4) (4.5) V. Availability Analysis Elementary probability arguments yield the following relations for Ai(t) A0(t) = M0(t) + q01(t)  A1(t) + q02(t)  A2(t) + q03(t)  A3(t), A1(t) = M1(t) + q10(t)  A0(t) + q14(t)  A4(t) + q15(t)  A5(t), A2(t) = q20(t)  A0(t) , A3(t) = q30(t)  A0(t) , A4(t) = q41(t)  A1(t) + 6 q (40) (t )  A0(t) , | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 15 -|
  • 5. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different… (7 A5(t) = q51(t)  A1(t) + q 50) ( t )  A0(t). (5.1) where M 0 (t )  F( t ) F1 ( t ) L( t ) , M1 (t )  F( t ) F2 ( t ) H( t ) . (5.2) * Taking Laplace transforms of equations (5.1) and solving for A 0 (s) , it gives A * (s) = A1(s) / D1(s) . 0 (5.3) where * * * * * * * N1(s) = M 0 (1  q14q 41  q15q 51 )  M1 q 01 and 6 * * * * * (7 D1 ( s)  (1  q * q *  q * q * ) (1  q14q *  q15q * )  q * (q10  q14q (40)*  q15q 50)* ) 02 20 03 30 41 51 01 , (5.4) The steady state availability of the system is A0() = N1 / D1 , where N1 = 0 (1  p14p41  p15p51) + 1p01 and D1 = (1  p01) (14p41 + p1441 + p1551 + 15p51) (5.5) (7 + (1  p14p41  p15p51) (02 + p0220 + p0330 + 03)+ 01 (p10 + p14 p (6) + p15 p 50) ) + p01 (10 + 14 p (6) + p14  ( 6) 40 40 40 (7 (7 + p15  50) + 15 p 50) ) . (5.6) VI. Busy Period Analysis Elementary probability arguments yield the following relations for B i(t) B0(t) = q01(t)  B1(t) + q02(t)  B2(t) + q03(t)  B3(t), B1(t) = q10(t)  B0(t) + q14(t)  B4(t) + q15(t)  B5(t), B2(t) = V2(t) + q20(t)  B0(t), B3(t) = V3(t) + q30(t)  B0(t) , B4(t) = V4(t) + q41(t)  B1(t)+ q40 (t )  B0(t) , (6) (7 B5(t) = V5(t) + q51(t)  B1(t) + q 50) ( t )  B0(t) , (6.1) where G 1 ( t ) L( t ) V2(t) = G ( t ) L( t ) , V3(t) = V4(t) = G ( t ) H( t ) , V5(t) = G 2 ( t ) H( t ) , . * Taking Laplace transforms of equations (6.1) and solving for B 0 (s) , it gives B* (s) = N2(s) / D1(s) 0 , (6.2) where * * * * * * * * * * * * * N2(s) = (q02V2  q03V3 )(1  q14q41  q15q51 )  q01 (q14V4  q15V5 ), and (6.3) D1 (s) is given by (5.4). In long run the fraction of time for which the server is busy is given by B0 () = N2 / D1 , where N2 = (p022 + p033) (1  p14p41  p15p51) + p01 (p144 + p155) and D1 is given by (5.6) . The expected busy period of server facility in (0, t] is b(t) = expected busy time of the repairman in (0, t] . The repairman may be busy during (0, t] starting from initial state S0 . | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com (6.4) (6.5) | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 16 -|
  • 6. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different… Hence t b(t) = B 0 ( u ) du , 0 so that  * (s)  B* (s) / s . b 0 Thus one can evaluate b(t) by taking inverse Laplace transform of Expected idle time of the repairman in (0, t] is 1 (t) = 1  b (t) .  * (s) b . VII. Expected Number of Visits by The Repairman Elementary probability arguments yield the following relations for Bi (t) V0(t) = Q01(t) Ⓢ[1 + V1(t)] + Q02(t) Ⓢ [1 + V2(t)] + Q03(t) Ⓢ [1 + V3(t)] , V1(t) = Q10(t) Ⓢ [1 + V0(t)] + Q14(t) Ⓢ [1 + V4(t)] + Q15(t) Ⓢ [1 + V5(t)] , V2(t) = Q20(t) Ⓢ V0(t) , V3(t) = Q30(t) Ⓢ V0(t) , ( 6) V4(t) = Q41(t) Ⓢ V1(t) + Q 40 ( t ) Ⓢ V0(t) V5(t) = Q51(t) Ⓢ V1(t) + , (7 Q 50) (t ) Ⓢ V0(t) , (7.1) Taking Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of equations (7.1) and solving for brevity, it follows V0* (s) = N3 (s) / D2 (s) , where N3(s) = and D2(s) = V0* (s) , dropping the argument “s” for (7.2) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ (1  Q 01  Q 02  Q 03 ) (1  Q14Q 41  Q15Q 51)  Q 01 (Q10  Q14  Q15 ) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ (1  Q 02Q 20  Q 03Q 30 ) (1  Q14Q 41  Q15Q 51 ) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ (7  Q 01 (Q10  Q14Q (6)  Q15Q 50) ) 40 (7.3) In steady state, number of visits per unit is given by V0 () = N3 / D2 , where N3 = 1 + p01  p14p41  p15p51 and (7.4) (7 D2 = p01 [1  p10  p14 (p41 + p (6) )  p15 (p51 + p 50) )] . 40 VIII. Cost Analysis The cost function of the system obtained by considering the mean-up time of the system, expected busy period of the server and the expected number of visits by the server, therefore, the expected profit incurred in (0, t] is C(t) = expected total revenue in (0, t]  expected total service cost in (0, t]  expected cost of visits by server in (0, t] = K1 up (t)  K2 b (t)  K3 V0 (t). (8.1) The expected profit per unit time in steady-state is C = K1 A0  K2 B0  K3 V0 (8.2) where K1 is the revenue per unit up time, K2 is the cost per unit time for which system is under repair and K3 is the cost per visit by repair facility. IX. Special Cases 9.1. The single unit with failure and repair exponentially distributed : Let  failure rate of the unit due to hardware failure , | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 17 -|
  • 7. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different…        failure rate of the unit due to human error; where the operator is in good physical condition , failure rate of the unit due to human error; where the operator is in poor physical condition , change of physical condition rate from good mode to poor mode , change of physical condition rate from poor mode to good mode , repair rate of the unit from hardware failure , repair rate of the unit from human error; where the operator is in good physical condition , repair rate of the unit from human error; where the operator is in poor physical condition . Transition probabilities are p01 =  / ( +  + ) , p02 =  / ( +  + ), p14 =  / ( +  + ) , p15 =  / ( +  + ) , p03 =  / ( +  + ), p41 =  / ( + ), p51 =  / ( + ) 6 p (40) (7 p 50) , p57 =  / ( + ) , p10 =  / ( +  + , p46 =  / ( + ), =   / ( + ) ( + ), =    / ( + ) ( + ). The mean sojourn times are 0 = 1 / ( +  + ), 1 = 1 / ( +  + ), 4 = 1 / ( + ), 5 = 1 / ( + ) . ˆ ˆ MTSF= N 2 / D1 where in this case, ˆ N0  1 (   2 = 1 / ( + ),  1  )  3 = 1 / ( + ),   , D  1  ˆ  ) 0            (     ˆ M i (t ) are ˆ M 0 (t )  e  (    )t ˆ M1 (t )  e(   )t . , The steady state availability of the system is ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ A0 ()  N1 / D1 where, N1  ˆ D1      1    1   (   )  (   )   (     )  , (     )  (     )    1    , 1  (     )  (     )   1    1 1    1 1           (   )  (     ) (   )  (   )  (     ) (   )       1    1   (   )  (   )   (     )  (     )   1  (   )     (     )       2   (     ) (     )    ,     2  2     1    2(   )  2 2 2 2   (   )(   ) (   )(   )   (   )  (   ) (   ) (   )     in this case ˆ Vi (t ) are ˆ ˆ V2 (t )  e  (  )t ,V3 (t )  e  (   )t ˆ ˆ V (t )  e  (  )t ,V (t )  e  (  )t 4 5 . In long run, the function of time for which the server is busy is given by ˆ ˆ ˆ B 0 ()  N 2 / D1 , where ˆ N2   1      1 1  1       1    (    )  (  ) (  )   (    )  (  ) (  )     | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 18 -|
  • 8. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different… +         (    ) (    )  (  ) (  )  . In steady state, number of visits per unit is given by ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ V0 ()  N 3 / D 2 , where , N 3  1  ˆ D2       1     (    ) (    )  (  ) (  )           1  1   (    )  (     ) (     ) (  )  (  )    (     ) (  ) ,     1   (   )     The expected profit per unit time in steady state is ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ C  K1A 0  K 2 B 0  K 3 V0 . 9.2 Numerical Example : Let K1 = 2000, K2 = 100, K3 = 50,  = 0.3 ,  = 0.7 ,  = 0.5,  = 0.6 ,  = 0.4,  = 0.1 Table 1 C  0.1  = 0.3 1024.2690  = 0.5 1298.3750  = 0.8 1564.9260 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 826.5411 639.8087 476.2774 330.6919 199.2988 100.3174 51.9091 23.8333 1075.1180 890.6446 734.9694 601.2720 484.7160 381.7681 189.7883 206.7642 1322.3090 1123.4460 957.9896 818.3685 698.9977 595.7105 505.3575 425.5283 Fig. 2 Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to hardware failure and the cost per unit time. Let K1 = 2000 , K2 = 100, K3 = 50,  = 0.5 ,  = 0.4 , = 0.5,  = 0.6 ,  = 0.5 ,  = 0.1 | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 19 -|
  • 9. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different… Table 2  0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 C  = 0.4 998.1833 785.9746 612.1279 464.8877 336.9454 223.4917 121.2211 27.7779 10.5644  = 0.6 1226.7330 1014.0950 842.9411 700.7023 579.4864 474.0720 380.8579 297.2745 221.4357  = 0.8 1401.331 1183.079 1008.1970 863.8236 741.7718 636.5713 544.4236 462.6036 389.1040 Fig. 3 Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to human error ; where the operator is in good physical condition and the cost per unit time Let K1 = 5000 , K2 = 150, K3 = 20,  = 0.3 ,  = 0.1 , = 0.7,  = 0.1 ,  = 0.1 ,  = 0.1 Table 3  0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 C  = 0.2 1884.574 1808.792 1754.425 1717.041 1693.305 1680.808 1677.841 1673.205 1669.083  = 0.4 1657.749 1628.560 1603.204 1582.434 1566.145 1553.974 1545.511 1540.367 1538.083  = 0.6 1479.912 1474.749 1466.649 1458.143 1450.294 1443.551 1438.081 1433.920 1431.036 Fig. 4 | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 20 -|
  • 10. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different… Relation between the failure rate of the unit due operator is in poor physical condition and the cost per unit time. Let  = 0.3 ,  = 0.7 ,  = 0.5 . Table 4 MTSF  = 0.2  = 0.5  0.1 2.2059 1.9565 0.2 1.8182 1.6522 0.3 1.5455 1.4286 0.4 1.3433 1.2575 0.5 1.1875 1.1224 0.6 1.0638 1.0132 0.7 0.9633 0.9231 0.8 0.8800 0.8475 0.9 0.8099 0.7831 Fig. 5. to human error ; where the  = 0.8 1.8103 1.5493 1.3529 1.2000 1.0776 0.9774 0.8940 0.8235 0.7632  Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to hardware failure and the mean time to system failure. Let  = 0.3 ,  = 0.9 ,  = 0.5 . Table 5 MTSF  = 0.2  = 0.5  = 0.8  0.1 2.0652 1.7188 1.5244 0.2 1.7431 1.5172 1.3812 0.3 1.5079 1.3580 1.2626 0.4 1.3287 1.2291 1.1628 0.5 1.1875 1.1224 1.0776 0.6 1.0734 1.0329 1.0040 0.7 0.9794 0.9565 0.9398 0.8 0.9005 0.8907 0.8834 0.9 0.8333 0.8333 0.8333 Fig. 6. | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com  | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 21 -|
  • 11. Propabilistic Analysis of a Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Different… Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to human error ; where the operator is in good physical condition and the mean time to system failure.  Let  = 0.2 ,  = 0.9 ,  = 0.1 . Table 6  0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 MTSF  = 0.1 1.0638 1.0169 0.9859 0.9639 0.9474 0.9346 0.9244 0.9160 0.9091  = 0.4 1.000 0.9783 0.9615 0.9483 0.9375 0.9286 0.9215 0.9146 0.9091  = 0.7 0.9735 0.9600 0.9489 0.9396 0.9317 0.9249 0.9189 0.9137 0.9091 Fig. 7. Relation between the failure rate of the unit due to human error ; where the operator is in poor physical condition and the mean time to system failure. X. Summary Expressions for various system performance characteristics are drawn by using semi-Markov processes and regenerative point technique. By using these expressions, the analytical as well numerical solutions of measures of performance can be obtained for the system in transient and steady states. In each figure we vary the parameter in question and fix the reset for consistency. It is evident from figures 2-7 that the increase in failure rates (hardware failure and human error where the operating is in good /bad physical condition) induces decrease in MTSF, and cost profit. REFERENCES [1]. [2]. [3]. [4]. [5]. [6]. Barlow, R.E And Proschan, F., “Mathematical Theory Of Reliability”, New York, John Wiley, 1965. Dhillon, B.S., “Stochastic Models For Producing Human Reliability”, Microelectron. Reliab., 22, 491, 1982. Dhillon, B.S., “On Human Reliability Bibliography”, Microelectron. Reliab., 20, 371, 1980. Feller, W., “An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications”, Col. 2, New York, John Wiley, 1957. Goel, L.R., Kumar, A., Rastogi, A.K., “Stochastic Behaviour Of Man-Machine Systems Operating Under Different Weather Conditions”, Microelectron. Reliab., 25, No. 1, 87-91, 1985. Mokaddis, G.S., Tawfek, M.L., El-Hssia, S.A.M., “Reliability Analysis Of Man-Machine System Operating Subject To Physical Conditions”, Has Been Accepted For Publication In “Microelectronics And Reliability”, England, 1996. | IJMER | ISSN: 2249–6645 | www.ijmer.com | Vol. 4 | Iss. 2 | Feb. 2014 |- 22 -|