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Impact of Agricultural Research in Sub-Saharan Africa
1. Impact of Agricultural Research
in Sub-Saharan Africa
Arega D. Alene
R4D Planning Meeting, 23 November 2009, Ibadan, Nigeria
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
2. Pathway: R&D Productivity Poverty
R&D
Technology
Productivity
On-farm consumption
Incomes
Health/Nutrition
Labor demand & wages
Aggregate production
Non-farm earnings
Consumer prices
Economy-wide effects
Poverty
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
11. Aggregate Rate of Return
Lag weights Model G. lag Elasticity ROR
0.030 (years) (%)
0.025 3 0.11 27
Trapezoid
0.020
1 0.10 34
0.015
3 0.10 31
0.010
C. PDL
0.005 0 0.10 44
0.000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 3 0.20 33
Years
UC. PDL
Unconstrained PDL 3–16 Constrained PDL 3–16
0 0.10 39
Trapezoid 2–16 Constrained PDL 0–16
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
12. System of Equations
Pathway: R&D... Productivity… Incomes... Poverty
R&D: Polynomial Distributed Lag
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
13. Simultaneous equation system estimates
of the impact of R&D in SSA
Equation/variable Parameter Estimate (t-value)
Value added per hectare: α1j + α2j
Research expenditures (t) α1(0) 0.003 (2.34)** 0.007 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –1) α1(1) 0.006 (2.34)** 0.012 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –2) α1(2) 0.008 (2.34)** 0.018 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –3) α1(3) 0.010 (2.34)** 0.022 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –4) α1(4) 0.012 (2.34)** 0.025 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –5) α1(5) 0.013 (2.34)** 0.028 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –6) α1(6) 0.014 (2.34)** 0.030 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –7) α1(7) 0.014 (2.34)** 0.031 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –8) α1(8) 0.015 (2.34)** 0.032 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –9) α1(9) 0.014 (2.34)** 0.031 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –10) α1(10) 0.014 (2.34)** 0.030 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –11) α1(11) 0.013 (2.34)** 0.028 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –12) α1(12) 0.012 (2.34)** 0.025 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –13) α1(13) 0.010 (2.34)** 0.022 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –14) α1(14) 0.008 (2.34)** 0.018 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t –15) α1(15) 0.006 (2.34)** 0.012 (4.14)***
Research expenditures (t–16) α1(16) 0.003 (2.34)** 0.007 (4.14)***
α1(RE) 0.38 (4.14)*** (αRE)
Total elasticity 0.17 (2.34)**
Fertilizer (kg per hectare) αFR 0.086 (1.89)*
Labor (workers per hectare) αLB 0.699 (10.01)***
Machinery (tractors per hectare) αMA 0.235 (3.31)***
Irrigation (% of crop land) αIR 0.012 (0.23)
West and Central Africa αWCA 0.457 (3.57)***
Constant δ0 5.161 (23.27)***
R2 0.76
GDP per capita:
Value added per hectare βVA 0.954 (8.49)***
Land (hectares per worker) βLA 1.008 (9.82)***
Government expenditures (% of GDP) βGE 0.215 (1.78)*
Fixed capital investment (% of GDP) βFI –0.005 (–0.05)
Rural population (% of total) βPR –0.653 (–2.28)**
West and Central Africa βWCA –0.313 (–3.35)***
Constant β0 0.638 (0.95)***
R2 0.76
Poverty:
Gini coefficient of inequality γGC 1.740 (3.78)***
GDP per capita γGDP –0.593 (–5.81)***
Government expenditures (% of GDP) γGE 0.226 (1.18)
Fixed capital investment (% of GDP) γFI 0.078 (0.51)
Population growth (% per year) γPG 0.229 (1.43)
West and Central Africa γWCA –0.076 (–0.59)
Constant γ0 8.903 (8.47)***
R2 0.31
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
14. Elasticity Measures
Elasticity of—with respect to Estimate
(1) Productivity — R&D 0.38
(2) GDP per capita — Productivity 0.95
(3) Poverty — GDP per capita –0.60
(4) GDP per capita — R&D = (1) (2) 0.36
(5) Poverty — Productivity = (2) (3) –0.58
(6) Poverty — R&D = (1) (2) (3) –0.22
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
15. Poverty impacts of R&D in SSA
Annual poverty reduction = 2.3 million (0.8% of the poor)
Poverty reduction due to IITA: 0.5 to 1 million per year
Doubling R&D investments, given more efficient support services:
o Poverty reduction of 2 percentage points per year
o Equivalent to 4.8% of the poor
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
17. Case Study Evidence: Maize Research in WCA
Maize Area & Yields
10 2.5
Area (million ha)
8 2.0
Area
Yield (t/ha)
6 1.5
4 Yield 1.0
2 0.5
0 0.0
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
18. Maize varieties released in WCA, 1965–2006
Country Maize varieties released
Nigeria 82
Burkina Faso 59
Benin 29
Cameroon 27
Ghana 36
Togo 27
Senegal 47
Mali 18
Côte d’Ivoire 8
Chad 14
D.R. Congo 20
Guinea 12
Total 379
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
19. Adoption of improved maize varieties in WCA
100 Country Area under improved varieties ('000 ha) % maize area
Nigeria
90 Mali 1981 2005 2005
Burkina Faso
80 Nigeria 27 2180 66
Adoption rate (% area)
Cameroon
70 Ghana Mali 2 163 38
60
Senegal Burkina Faso 5 333 76
Benin
50 Togo Cameroon 36 244 46
40
Cote d'Ivoire Ghana 5 664 88
Aggregate
Senegal 3 136 95
30
Benin 10 236 42
20
Togo 3 213 50
10 Côte d’Ivoire 20 69 53
0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
WCA 111 4238 62
Year
IITA varieties account for 43% of area under MVs
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
20. Production (million tons)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Maize
1987
1988
Actual
1989
1990
1991
Counterfactual
1992
Production (million tons) 1993
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1994
1981 1995
1982 1996
1983 1997
1998
Millet
1984
1999
1985 2000
1986 2001
1987 2002
1988 2003
Actual
1989 2004
1990 2005
1991 Counterfactual Production (million tons)
0
2
4
6
10
12
14
8
1992
1993 1981
1994 1982
1995 1983
1984
1996 1985
1997 1986
Sorghum
1998 1987
1999 1988
1989
Counterfactual
Actual
2000 1990
2001 1991
2002 1992
1993
2003 1994
2004 1995
2005 1996
Production with & without maize research
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
21. Maize Research Benefits & Costs
Summary Measures
Annual benefits Benefit–Cost Rate of Return
(US$ million) ratio (%)
Nigeria 194 84 74
Mali 6 11 37
Burkina Faso 10 14 39
Cameroon 15 18 69
Ghana 24 12 40
Senegal 5 12 28
Benin 8 28 64
Togo 5 10 31
Côte d’Ivoire 13 20 63
Aggregate 274 21 43
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
22. Maize research benefits attributable to IITA
(US$ million)
250
200
US$90–126 m/year
150
100
50
0
1991
2003
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
23. Poverty reduction due to maize research at IITA
(‘000)
600
500
Poverty reduction ('000)
400
230–326,000/year
300 35–50,000/$1 million
200
100
0
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
25. Conclusions & Recommendations
Stronger recovery of agricultural productivity after mid-1980s
Results confirm the key roles of R&D, weather, and policy reforms
R&D has contributed to productivity growth and poverty reduction
Potential impacts are greater (fix inefficiencies outside R&D system)
SSA spends half of India’s & a quarter of US R&D expenditures
Increased R&D investments would bring about greater poverty reduction
Increased investments in extension/credit/input supply systems
o Infrastructure, institutions, credit, subsidies, etc
o Greater physical and economic access to seed & fertilizer
Enhancing poverty reduction through resource reallocation (…)
o Current allocations are suboptimal
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
26. Benefits to Poor Households
Resource allocation based on expected impact
50
45
Cumulative benefits to the poor
(% of total research benefits)
40
35
30
25 Equity
Efficiency
20
Actual
15
10
5
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Cumulative research costs (% of total budget)
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org
27. Implied Resource Re-allocation
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture – Institut international d’agriculture tropicale – www.iita.org