On 13 June, the United States government announced it intended to provide military assistance to Syria’s armed opposition after concluding the country’s military had used chemical weapons. Also that day, a conference of senior Middle Eastern Sunni Muslim leadership expressed its support to the “Islamic resistance” in Syria.

1. Syrian War
Sectarianism & US
Military Assistance to
Syrian Opposition
Analysis from Charles Lister, IHS
Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency
Centre Analyst

2. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 2
The story
• On 13 June, the US government announced that it intends to
provide military assistance to Syria’s armed opposition
• The US has concluded that the Syrian military has used chemical
weapons
• Also on 13 June a conference of senior Middle Eastern Sunni
Muslim leadership expressed its support to the “Islamic
resistance” in Syria

3. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 3
Context – Military Support
• The US decision to increase its military assistance to the Syrian
opposition is an extremely significant move
• It comes as the conflict in Syria has become increasingly
sectarian and as regional players have become directly involved
to an extent not seen before
• However, it also comes as regional support for Islamist militant
groups appears to have increased – indicating a potential division
in political objectives with the US and other Western states

4. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 4
Context – Sectarian Aspects
• The Syrian war has become dominated by sectarian rhetoric and
motivations
• Foreign fighters, Sunni and Shia, appear to be flocking to Syria to
join their respective sides
• Both Sunni and Shia have now been accused of committing
alleged massacres and both sides appear to be receiving foreign
state backing
• Hizbullah's critical involvement in the capturing of Al-Qusayr was
pivotal – Shia escalation has sparked Sunni escalation
• At least 12 prominent Sunni clerics have issued edicts calling for
“jihad” against Syria and Hizbullah in May and June

5. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 5
Outlook and implications
• The US decision to increase military support to the moderate
opposition suggests that the likelihood of progress on a
negotiating table is slim at best
• The imposition of a no-fly zone near the southern Jordanian
border seems a feasible eventuality, especially given the strong
presence in that region of moderate rebel groups
• The much-speculated issue of sending anti-aircraft weapons still
appears unlikely
• If Arab states have now shifted their support towards more
avowedly Islamist rebel groups, any Western initiative to back
more moderate forces may be considerably weakened

6. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 6
This rapid reaction piece has been
abridged from more in-depth analysis in
IHS Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency
Centre.
www.ihs.com/jtic