The document analyzes data from 16,174 data points for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010 to estimate trends in child mortality. It finds that under-5 deaths have dropped from 16 million globally in 1970 to 7.7 million in 2010. While progress has been made, the annual rate of decline in developing countries is still below the Millennium Development Goal target of 4.4% per year. The analysis uses Gaussian process regression, a new modeling method, to more accurately estimate neonatal, postneonatal and childhood mortality rates over time. Faster reductions are possible as shown by some countries decreasing under-5 mortality by 30% within 5 years.

1. Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970-2010: a systematic analysis of progress towards MDG4 May 24, 2010 Julie Rajaratnam

6. Expanded Data Sources Empirical Measurements Vital Registration 3549 Sample Registration Systems 53 Complete Birth Histories 1447 Summary Birth Histories 9870 Household Deaths 62 Country-Specific Surveys 10 Disease Surveillance Points 12 Murray, Laakso, Shibuya et al Original Database 1075 Reports and Publications 96 Total 16174

12. Predictive Validity for Neonatal, Postneonatal, Childhood Model Design Age Mean Relative Error Median Relative Error In Sample Neonatal 9.3% 6.2% Post-neonatal 10.9% 8.0% Child 11.4% 7.8% Dropping 20% of data Neonatal 9.8% 6.7% Post-neonatal 11.8% 8.7% Child 11.9% 8.1% Dropping 20% of countries Neonatal 11.4% 7.1% Post-neonatal 12.9% 9.1% Child 14.3% 8.9% Dropped last 10 years Neonatal 14.4% 11.4% Post-neonatal 21.0% 15.1% Child 19.2% 13.3%

14. Country Examples: Norway

15. Country Examples: El Salvador

16. Country Examples: Laos

17. Country Examples: Liberia

18. Global Under Five Deaths 1970-2010

19. Global Neonatal, Postneonatal, and Childhood Mortality Rates 1970-2010

20. Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group A

21. Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group B

22. Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group C

23. Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group D

24. Under-Five Mortality Rate in 2010

25. Annual Rate of Decline in U5 1990-2010

26. Regional Rates of Decline NN, PNN and CHD 1990-2010

27. Accelerating Progress on U5

28. Developing countries on track to achieve MDG 4 Country Rate of decline (%) Country Rate of decline (%) Maldives 9.21 Syrian Arab Republic 5.11 United Arab Emirates 8.43 Algeria 4.99 Oman 6.92 Bhutan 4.92 Turkmenistan 6.65 Cuba 4.88 Viet Nam 6.4 Armenia 4.84 Sri Lanka 6.28 Thailand 4.83 Egypt 6.2 Brazil 4.81 Malaysia 5.85 Bahrain 4.74 Tunisia 5.69 China 4.72 El Salvador 5.64 Mexico 4.63 Lebanon 5.62 Bangladesh 4.57 Peru 5.42 Honduras 4.57 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 5.34 Barbados 4.55 Nepal 5.33 Costa Rica 4.5 Chile 5.16 Turkey 4.47 Mongolia 5.15