1. 1
Long term agricultural strategy:
The Role of the FISP
July 2014
Andrew Dorward

2. 2
Overarching objective
‘The reduction of poverty through sustainable economic
growth and infrastructure development’
Malawi Growth and Development
Strategy II 2012-16 (MGDS II)

3. 3
Challenges:
•low productivity,
•over dependence on rain-fed farming with limited irrigation
development,
•low uptake of improved farm inputs,
•weak private sector participation,
•low investment in mechanization.
Associated with
• high transport costs,
• inadequate farmer organizations,
• insufficient extension services,
• inadequate markets and market information,
• limited access to agricultural credit,
• inefficient input and output markets
• low technology development and transfer
MGDS II: Agriculture and Food Security
a key priority area

4. 4
overall agriculture & food security goals
•“to increase agriculture productivity and diversification”
•“to ensure sustained availability and accessibility of food to
all Malawians at all times at affordable prices”.
Malawi Growth and Development
Strategy II 2012-16 (MGDS II)

5. 5
Aims:
•increase agricultural productivity,
•contribute to 6% growth annually in the agricultural sector,
•improve food security,
•diversify food production to improve nutrition at household
level, and
•increase agricultural incomes of the rural people
Focus areas:
Food Security and Risk Management;
Commercial Agriculture, Agro-processing and Market Development;
Sustainable Agricultural Land and Water management.
Key support services:
Technology Generation and Dissemination;
Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building
Cross-cutting issues:
HIV Prevention and AIDS Impact Mitigation;
Gender Equity and Empowerment
Agricultural Sector Wide Approach
(ASWAp)

6. 6
Proposed agricultural sector aim
To increase labour and land productivity for
national food security and agricultural and
non- agricultural growth.

7. 7
• Variety of different agro-ecological conditions & soil types etc
• Range of different crops for both domestic & export markets.
• Relatively favourable rainfall & rivers & lake water for
irrigation.
• Strong social, political & technical commitment to agriculture
• Low cost labour
• Experience & capacity in different aspects of agriculture
(farmers, private companies, NGOS & government)
• Good but below potential agriculture performance with
macroeconomic stability & favourable rains.
Malawi agriculture: strengths

8. 8
• Lack of consistent & coordinated strategic policy &
programme design & implementation
• Lack of consensus on critical growth strategies
• Government, politicians & donors: different & changing
interests
• Limited civil service capacity, resources , lesson learning &
evidence based policy (lack of critical agricultural statistics)
• Weak inter-sectoral coordination
• Large financial flows attract politicisation & fraud
• Poor infrastructure (roads & irrigation)
• Weak business environment & changing policies inhibit private
sector
• Low levels of literacy & education
• Imports & exports inhibited by high road & port costs, delays
• Dependence on maize & tobacco
• Small domestic markets & small player in international
markets
Malawi agriculture: weaknesses /
challenges

9. 9
Farmers
•Roads
•Markets
•Poverty
•Low literacy & education
•Lack of financial resources
•Small fragmented holdings
•Seasonal pressures (hungry gap, prices, sickness….)
•Low maize productivity trap
•Women face particular difficulties (multiple responsibilities,
limited access to & control of resources, early
marriages…. )
•Poverty & child nutrition: ‘life course’ & inter-generational
traps
Malawi agriculture: weaknesses /
challenges (cont.)

10.  High poverty
rates (50%
<$0.40 in 2004)
 Small holdings
(50% < 1.0ha)
 Continuous
maize cultivation
 Declining soil
fertility
 Recurring food
insecurity
 Highly variable
maize prices
 97% farmers
grow maize (half
also buyers)
 >70% cultivated
land & under
maize
Malawi rural economy: poverty & the
low maize productivity trap
Low producer
investment
Unstable maize
prices
Low maize & agric
productivity
Consumer ‘lock in’ to
low productivity maize
Low & vulnerable real
incomes
Low demand & for
non-agric goods &
services
Limited agric.
credit

11. 11
• Current weaknesses also pose opportunities for
improvement
• Local economy multipliers
• Investment opportunities in agro-processing industries
• High International prices of some exports. attracting
private investors (funds & technical & market expertise).
• New domestic & regional market opportunities.
• Mobile phone spread for service access
• Potential mineral earnings
• Relatively low agricultural growth rates have high
potential to promote wider pro-poor growth
• Climate change funds?
• Post election opportunities?
Malawi agriculture: opportunities

12. 12
• Continuation & potential worsening of current
processes
• population growth;
• land degradation;
• forest, soil & fisheries loss,
• Continued ‘weaknesses ‘
• continued dependence on but reduced aid inflows;
• economic instability;
• Potential new emergent changes
• Climate change (temperature, rainfall, evapo-
transpiration & water, global food prices)
• Negative changes in regional markets,
Malawi agriculture: threats

13. 13
FISP input
purchase
Input market
development
Incremental
input purchase
Legume
productivity
Incremental
input use
SOIL
FERTILITY
Maize
productivity
INCOMES
LABOUR &
LAND
PRODUCTIVITY
FOOD
SECURITY
MAIZE PRICES
COSTS
SCALE
LOGISTICS
FINANCE
PPP
AGRONOMY
COMMITMENT
CONSISTENCY
COORDINATION
COMPLEMENTARITY
SEQUENCING
RESEARCH
EXTENSION
ROADS
EDUCATION
HEALTH
MARKETS
…………
GRADUATION
MAIZE MARKET
Release
Non-maize
production
Non-maize
demand
EXPORTS &
IMPORT
SUBSTITUTION
DOMESTIC
AG & NON AG
GROWTH
PROCUREMENT
TIMING
TARGETING
PRIVATE SECTOR
CASH
TRANSFERS
FARMER
CONTRIBUTIONS
SECURITY
INPUT
PACKAGES

14. 14
Long term agricultural strategy:
The Role of the FISP
July 2014
Andrew Dorward