"Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security" presented by Sherman Robinson at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security
1. Challenges and Projections
for Global Agriculture
and Food Security
Sherman Robinson and the Impact Team
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
April 2014
2. www.ifpri.org
Outline
IFPRI’s baseline projections:
• Drivers of agricultural growth
• The IMPACT Model
• Data for Central Asia
• Base scenario results
Climate challenges (IPCC 2014)
AgMIP results (PNAS 2014)
The role of technologies (Rosegrant et al. 2014)
3. www.ifpri.org
Drivers of Agricultural Growth
and Food Security
Demand drivers
• Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050
• Urbanization: 50% in 2008, 78% in 2050
• Income growth
• Oil prices
• Biofuels and bioenergy
• Conservation and biodiversity
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4. www.ifpri.org
Rapid income growth and urbanization – effects
on diets and patterns of agricultural production
• Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables
• Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains
for feed
• Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods
• Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils
• Half of growth in grain demand will be for
Livestock feed
• Increased pressure on land and water
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fast_food_(
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth
and Food Security
5. www.ifpri.org
Supply drivers
• Climate change
• Water and land scarcity
• Investment in infrastructure
• Investment in agricultural
research
• Policy
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth
and Food Security
6. www.ifpri.org
The IMPACT Model
International Model for Policy Analysis of
Agricultural Commodities and Trade
Global partial equilibrium model
• Food model
• Water models
• Crop models
• Malnutrition model
8. Hydrology Model
Water Basin
Management Model
Water Stress Model
Multimarket Model:
crops, sugar, oilseeds,
livestock/meat
SPAM - Spatial
Production Allocation
Model
Land-Use Model
DSSAT Crop Models
Biofuel Model
Livestock Model
IMPACT Suite of Models
8
9. IMPACT version 3
159
• Countries
154
• Water
Basins
320
• Food
Production
Units
• 58 Agricultural
commodities
9
11. Central Asia’s Shares of
Global Cotton Exports
National Exports as a Percent of Global Exports
11
12. Cotton Yields in Central Asia
12
Country Yield Ratio # Regions
Kazakhstan 80.3 7
Kyrgyzstan 95.6 2
Tajikistan 63.0 1
Turkmenistan 65.8 3
Uzbekistan 86.0 2
Ratio to global average (%), FAO Data, average for
2004-2006. Regions: water basins
22. www.ifpri.org
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate
change in 2050
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
(MIROC/A1B)
23. www.ifpri.org
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate
change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
24. www.ifpri.org
Impact on International Food Prices
(2010=100)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Wheat Maize Rice
2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC
Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
25. Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
The Agricultural Model
Intercomparison and Improvement
Project (AgMIP)
31
26. Price increase scenario results (%), 2010 – 2050,
Baseline economy and demography, IMPACT 2010
Minimum and maximum
effect from four climate
scenarios
33
27. Alternate perspectives on price scenarios 2004-2050,
OECD comparison 2011 (perfect mitigation)
IMPACT had substantially greater price
increases than LEITAP or ENVISAGE
34
28. The role of agricultural
technologies
• Baseline to 2050, including
climate change
• Linked crop models and
economic models
• Assessed 11 technologies for
maize, rice and wheat
• Impacts on prices, yields, risk
of hunger
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
35
The complexities involved in projecting food supply and demand over the longer term have raised interest in closer comparison of different projection exercises; thus AgMIP (acknowledge USDA support).
Shows the range of results for 7 climate change scenarios with RCP 8.5 to 2 climate models; 2 crop models; 9 economic models, relative to the case of no climate change.YEXO down by mean (red line) of 17 percent, YTOT down 11, AREA up 11, PROD down 2, TRSH up 1, CONS down 3, PRICE up 20.Note prices up and yields down particularly hard for rural poor who will see food costs rise and incomes fall.Also note caveat that these scenarios were selected to facilitate model intercomparison, not to reflect likely futures.
Maize price mean increase is 101 % higher; max is 131, min is 83Rice price mean increase is 55; max is 57, min is 53Wheat price mean increase is 54; max is 66, min is 45All these are for the baseline overall scenario