Exploring the uncertainty of BECCS in the future low-carbon energy system in the UK

1. Exploring the Uncertainty of BECCS in the
Future UK Low-Carbon Energy System
Dr. Pei-Hao Li (p.li@ucl.ac.uk)
UCL Energy Institute
ETSAP Meeting, Stuttgart, Germany
7th-9th Nov, 2018
Assess-BECCS

2. Outline
• Introduction
• UK TIMES (UKTM)
• BECCS in UKTM
• Scenarios
• Results
• Conclusions and Future Works
2

3. Introduction
• 2008 UK Climate Change Act: 80% reduction by 2050
 Five carbon budgets (up to 2032) so far
• Paris Agreement (12th Dec, 2015)
 “The Paris Agreement, in seeking to strengthen the global response to
climate change, reaffirms the goal of limiting global temperature increase
to well below 2 degrees Celsius, while pursuing efforts to limit the
increase to 1.5 degrees.”
• IPCC 1.5 degree special report (8th Oct, 2018):
 only 12 years left to limit climate change catastrophe
• UK government (15th Oct, 2018) requested the CCC:
 Evaluate when and how to achieve net zero GHG emissions
• Negative emission technologies (including BECCS) are crucial
• But BECCS is highly uncertain!!
3

4. • Developed by UCL Energy Institute with BEIS in wholeSEM project
• A whole energy systems model
• Technology-rich, Minimum cost
• Adopted by UK government (BEIS, CCC) for policy making (5th Carbon Budget,
Clean Growth Strategy), National Grid (Future Energy Scenarios), consultancies,
universities
UK TIMES (UTKM)
4

5. • Bioenergy resource: import, domestic production, transformation and
transport (supply chain)
• BECCS: majorly for electricity generation and hydrogen production
BECCS in UKTM
5

6. Scenarios for uncertain BECCS
• Bioenergy availability (low and high)
– According to AEA Ricardo report on UK biomass feedstock availability
• GHG targets:
– The Climate Change Act 2008: 80% reduction on 1990 level by 2050
– 5th Carbon Budget: 57% reduction on 1990 levels by 2030
– Constraint on cumulative GHG emissions during 2032~2050
– For net zero scenarios, net GHG emissions should be 0 in 2050
GHG targets
Low bio
CCS from 2021
Low bio
CCS from 2040
High bio
CCS from 2021
High bio
CCS from 2040
80%
reduction
by 2050
GHG80_BIOL
(Reference)
GHG80_BIOL
_CCS2040
GHG80_BIOH
GHG80_BIOH
_CCS2040
Net zero
by 2050
Infeasible Infeasible GHG100_BIOH
GHG100_BIO
H_CCS2040
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7. Results: GHG Emissions
• Higher BIO: Much lower emissions from ELC generation and H2 production
• GHG80 + higher BIO: More emissions from residential and transport sectors
• Delay of CCS: less emissions from H2 production
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-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHGemissions(MtCO2eq)
GHG Emissions
GHG80_BIOL GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040
GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040
GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
MtCO2eq
Difference of Sectoral GHG Emissions in
2050
Agriculture & Land Use Services Electricity
Industry Residential Transport
Hydrogen Processing Upstream
Non-energy use Net difference

8. Results: Elc Supply & Demand
• Higher BECCS: negative emissions
• Extreme cases: more nuclear power, higher electrification in the
industrial and residential sectors
8
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
TWh
Difference of Electricity Generation
by Fuel in 2050
Biomass Biomass CCS Wind
Nuclear Storage output Net difference
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
TWh
Difference of Sectoral Electricity
Consumption in 2050
Agriculture Services Industry
Residential Transport Process
Hydrogen Upstream Storage input
Net difference

9. -2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
PJ
Difference of Final Energy Consumption in 2050
Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity
Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products
Other Renewables Manufactured fuels Net difference
Results: Final Energy Consumption
• Delay of CCS: less hydrogen
• GHG80 + high BIO: more fossil fuels, less electricity, less hydrogen
• GHG100: higher electrification levels
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-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
Final Energy Consumption (GHG80_BIOL)
Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity
Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products
Other Renewables Manufactured fuels

10. Results: Costs
• Higher costs
– Lower availability of bioenergy
– Stricter GHG targets and delay of CCS
• GHG100_BIOH: sharp increase of levels of electrification in final years
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-100
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Carbonprice(£/tCO2)
Carbon Price
GHG80_BIOL GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040
GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040
GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Undiscountedannualcosts(M£)
Energy System Costs
GHG80_BIOL GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040
GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040
GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040

11. Results: Net Zero
11
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
GHG100_BIOH
Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity
Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products
Other Renewables Manufactured fuels
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity
Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products
Other Renewables Manufactured fuels
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
GHG100_BIOH
Agriculture Services Industry Residential Transport
Process Hydrogen Upstream Storage input
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
Agriculture Services Industry Residential Transport
Process Hydrogen Upstream Storage input
Final Energy Consumption
Sectoral Electricity Consumption

12. Conclusions and Future Works
• Influences on decarbonisation costs
– GHG targets > Bio availability > delay of CCS
• BECCS
– Especially important to decarbonise the Elc sector
– Create rooms for other sectors
• Usage of bioenergy is flexible
• Net zero by 2050
– Impossible without BECCS (or CCS after 2040)
– Delay of CCS:
• Extremely high level of electrification (esp. industrial sector)
• Bioenergy is required in the transport sector before 2050
– Consumers’ participation becomes extremely critical
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GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040 GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040 GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
1.4% -6.2% -3.6% 4.4% 6%
Difference of undiscounted costs in 2050 (GHG80_BIOL as base)

13. Conclusions and Future Works
• Link with global energy system model (TIAM-UCL) to
explore the availability of bioenergy from international
trades for the UK
• Evaluate the environmental impacts of high bioenergy
production
• Incorporate consumers’ technology choice into
account (UK nationwide survey carried out for H2020
REEEM project)
– Heating technologies
– Vehicle technologies
• Consider other NETs
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14. Thanks for your attention!
Dr. Pei-Hao Li
UCL Energy Institute
p.li@ucl.ac.uk
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Assess-BECCS