Energy systems modelling and CCS: Insights from the COMET project

71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo
July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA
Maurizio Gargiulo, E4SMA
maurizio.gargiulo@e4sma.com
71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting
College Park Marriott Hotel & Conference Center,
3501 University Blvd East, Hyattsville, Maryland, USA.
10th – 11th July 2017
Energy systems modelling and CCS: Insights from
the COMET project

1. Introduction
2. The TIMES-CCS model
3. Input to the TIMES-COMET model
4. Scenarios
5. Results
6. Conclusion
Outline
2/22

COMET - Integrated infrastructure for CO2 transport and storage in the
west Mediterranean (Spain, Portugal and Morocco) is an EU FP7
funded project (http://comet.lneg.pt/) ended in 2012 focused on.
• Identifying and assessing the most cost effective CO2 transport and
storage infrastructure able to serve Portugal, Spain and Morocco.
• Considering the time and spatial aspects of the development of the
energy sector and other industrial activities.
• Taking into consideration the location, capacity and availability of
potential CO2 storage geological formations.
• Paying special attention to a balanced decision on transport
modes/routes, matching the sources and sinks, addressing safety
and lifetime objectives; and
• Meeting optimal cost - benefit trade-off, for a CCS network
infrastructure as part of an international cooperation policy.
1. The EU-FP7 COMET research project
3/22

1. The EU-FP7 COMET Partners
4/22

• Represent national energy systems and the geographical details
of CCS infrastructures in the same technical-economic model.
• The TIMES-COMET model integrate:
 The national TIMES models of Morocco, Portugal and Spain,
with both spatial and temporal details, and a
 CCS infrastructure module of the West Mediterranean built in
TIMES.
• Design and implement scenarios as a function of assumptions on
the development to 2050 of mitigation levels, economic growth
and CO2 capture-transport storage characteristics.
1. The COMET approach
5/22

.
2. The TIMES-COMET model
TIMES-CCS module
6/22

3. Input - Emission sources: location of 78 clusters
Emission sources database
• With technical characteristics and
geographical location of CO2 sources
based on average emitted more than 0.1
Mt CO2/a in the period 2005-2009 in
Morocco, Portugal and Spain (almost 300,
with a total emission of about 150 Mt CO2
in 2009)
• In which for each emission point, the
sector (Electricity, Refineries, Iron and
Steel, Cement, Glass, Pulp and Paper,
Other Industries), and the main energy
carriers (Biomass, Coal, Natural Gas, Oil,
Waste) are specified.
• A set of areas, where all emission sources
are aggregated in 78 emission clusters.
7/22

3. Input - Sinks: location of 43 clusters
Sinks database
• Techno-economic characteristics and
geographical location of about 160
geological formations in Morocco,
Portugal and Spain with a potential of
 7.7 Gt CO2 in Portugal;
 23 Gt CO2 in Spain (with an
onshore sink potential of around
75% of the total Iberian
potential), and
 0.4 Gt CO2 in Morocco.
• A set of areas, where all the storage
formations are aggregated in 43 sink
clusters.
8/22

3. Input - Other inputs to the model
• The distances among all clusters (emission clusters to emission
clusters and emission clusters to sink clusters) are calculated in a
GIS system.
• Costs estimated with the appropriate terrain factors (‘relative
cost variation with respect to standard cost’), as dependent on
the diameter (and the maximum possible annual CO2 flow).
• Technical economic characteristics of CCS related technologies –
capture, compression, transport, and injection in the sink and of
competing mitigation options.
9/22

3. Input - The CO2 transport network
10/22

In all scenario there the same assumptions about:
• technological developments;
• CCS technologies learning curves;
• CO2 unit transport costs, and
• policies of the whole energy sector.
4. Scenarios
11/22

• CCS is applicable only to large emission sources, in this case > 0.1
MtCO2.
• In Spain 30% and Portugal 38% can be captured now and after 2020
less.
4. Scenario drivers: emission sources
2005 CO2 emissions by country and concentration level / capture potential
12/22

4. Scenarios drivers: CCS characteristics
Characteristics of the CO2 capture technologies in the model
13/22

• Compared to the 1990 CO2 emissions from the energy system and
most industrial processes, three emission reduction levels to 2050
where analysed for Spain+Portugal:
 -20%, meaning keeping the emission constant after 2020
 -40%, linearly interpolated
 -80%, linearly interpolated, which has to be the target of OECD
countries, if the temperature increase is kept below 3ºC
• Morocco has no commitments till 2050, but can sell permits to
ES+PT up to 20% of their mitigation commitments.
• ES+PT can buy permits from the Rest of the Word (RoW), at prices
increasing from 50 €’2005/tCO2 to 150 in the -40% cases and to 350
in the -80% cases.
4. Scenario drivers: CO2 emission reduction level
14/22

In this case study, the
cumulative amount
stored in 40 years is
14% of the permanent
storage capacity in
ES+MO+PT, mainly
available in Spain,
and the maximum
annual flow does not
exceed 50% of the
annual injection
capacity.
4. Scenario drivers: permanent CO2 storage formations
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Storagecost(€'2005/tCO2)
Cumulative potential (GtCO2)
HIGH
LOW
Cumulative storage cost curve in ES+MO+PT
15/22

• In the free case the
78 emission clusters
can send CO2 to 43
storage clusters
using >3000 routes.
• In the case following
the gas network only
200 routes are
permitted, in both
cases with or
without crossing the
borders.
4. Scenario drivers: pipelines routes
16/22

Net CO2 emissions
5. Results
17/22

Spain CO2 emissions (MtCO2/a)
5. Results
18/22

5. Results
Captured CO2 Stored CO2
Capture and storage by cluster and year - CONSERVATIVE CCS scenario
19/22

Optimal development of the CCS transport network by scenario and year
5. Results
20/22

6. Conclusion
• CCS is generally competitive and exploited to its maximum technical
potential under wide assumptions about:
 storage potentials and cost, transport routes and costs, capture
technologies emissions and costs, cost of the main other mitigation
technologies.
• CCS can play a significant role in the Iberian Peninsula under intermediate
and strong mitigation scenarios. With low economic growth assumptions
CCS remains competitive but the market is reduced.
• When the mitigation target becomes more stringent, CCS does not reduce
enough; countries are obliged to reduce emissions at the source.
• Capture potential and pipeline network constraints appear stronger
determinants of deployment levels compared to engineering costs and
storage potentials.
• If CCS is not available, less CO2 emissions are generated using other more
expensive mitigation options and buying expensive permits.
• Since the cost difference between the scenarios with free routes and the
scenarios with routes following natural gas pipelines is negligible in terms of
cost and cumulative storage, it seems that there is room for negotiating
socially acceptable infrastructures.
21/22

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22/22

Energy systems modelling and CCS: Insights from the COMET project

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