1. Institute for
Development and
Moldova’s Foreign Policy statewatch Social Initiatives
“Viitorul”
Issue 7, July 2010
BLACK SEA REGION –
CONTINUITY
OR GEOPOLITICAL CHANGE
Cornel Ciurea
Next topics
Moldova’s Foreign Policy Statewatch represents a series of brief
analyses, written by local and foreign experts, dedicated to the
to be covered:
most topical subjects related to the foreign policy of Moldova,
major developments in the Black Sea Region, cooperation with Wine warfare at the door-
international organizations and peace building activities in the region. step - nothing new, just
It aims to create a common platform for discussion and to bring business for russia
together experts, commentators, officials and diplomats who are
concerned with the perspectives of European Integration of Moldova. Are the Moldovans who
It is also pertaining to offer to Moldova’s diplomats and analysts a hold romanian passports a
valuable tribune for debating the most interesting and controversial devastating threat for eU?
points of view that could help Moldova to find its path to EU.
T
he geopolitical situation in the Black Sea Region is in a continuous
state of flux. This region was rediscovered at the beginning of the
XXI century when some euroatlantic practitionners started to think
about it as an ideal place for the transit of oil and gas from the Cas-
pian Sea, a fertile land for the expansion of the frontiers of freedom
and a good bridgehead for the containment of Russia. This region
took different forms in the past, being alternatively a Soviet Union
„salt lake” counteracted by Turkey and a proving ground for the erec-
ting of the frontiers of freedom. Today, we could notice a reformating
of this region by reordering it according to the principles of interblock rivalry. In
these conditions, Moldova is compelled to renew its policy of balancing among
different geopolitical blocks with yet unclear contours, this taking place exactly
in the moment when the geopolitical rivalries are being reignited and the Black
Sea region is loosing its statute of an „uninteresting” and a putatively tamed re-
gion, becoming more and more a battlefield with an unpredictable outcome.

2. 2 Moldova’s Foreign Policy statewatch
The Geopolitical Rivalries
in the Black Sea Region
The advancement of euroatlantism in the Black Sea Region fostered at some moment the
illusion of the enhancement of the cooperative efforts of the states which are members of
the so-called Wider Back Sea Region (Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Romania, Bularia, Moldova,
Azerbaidjan, Armenia and Georgia), seemingly cementing the friendly character of their
relationhips (except Russia). The much-quoted article „The Black Sea and the Frontiers
of Freedom” written in 2004 by Ronald D. Asmus and Bruce P. Jackson, traced out the
main lines of convergence between the limitrophe countries and underlined the Western
countries interest for the building of a unitary and coherent space after years of neglect.
Several interstate organizations, like GUAM and the Community of Democratic Choice,
proved the intent of some states (Georgia and Ukraine) to transform the Black Sea Region
in an area of stability and security - in fact, an waiting room for the intergration in the EU and
NATO. The colour revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine and the reshuffle of the priorities in
the foreign policy of the Moldova after the parliamentary elections in April 2005, confirmed
these new aspirations, apperantly creating the feeling that the democratization process in
this region is irreversible and the continental powers, led by Russia, have no other choice
than to give up their traditional strategy of opposing to the West.
In fact, the period of convergence did not last long. Since 2006 Russia made it clear by
applying economic sanctions to Georgia and Moldova that other Black Sea countries drift
toward euroatlantism would not be tolerated. NATO Summit, held in Bucharest in April 2008,
was also pointing at Western states unwillingness to incorporate Georgia and Ukraine in
NATO. Finally, the Georgian war in August 2008 and the Ianukovici victory in presidential
elections in Ukraine in 2010, wiped out definitely any optimism regarding the credibility
of the euroatlantic credentials and urged the reversal of the confrontational policy in the
region. This trend has been strengthened by Turkey, which is proned more and more to
a continental approach, following a policy of gradual detachment from NATO and being
addicted to panturkism. Turkey is determined to come into play more decisively in the South
Caucasus, where it could come to an understanding with Russia, which is very keen on
preserving its monopoly on gas transit toward West (Russia is being very much concerned
about Azerbaidjan and Turkey is trying to reestablish normal relationships with Armenia – a
traditional Russian ally).
The recent geopolitical changes serve as a proof that the Black Sea Region no longer
fits the model „West against Russia” but it is not yet taking the form of a bipolar model
„Continental powers (Russia, Turkey, Ukraine) versus Sea powers”. Some riparian states
like Bulgaria, Ukraine, Roumania and Moldova act in a nevrotic manner, balancing between
different power configurations. For instance, NATO member Bulgaria is reconsidering this
month its decision to withdraw from the two energy projects led by Russia – South Stream
pipeline and Belene nuclear station. Bulgaria agreement given to Russian projects irritates
Washington which is seeking a diversification of energy sourses. At the same time, another
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3. Moldova’s Foreign Policy statewatch 3
NATO member – Romania – is trying to replace Bulgaria in the South Stream project, which
is strongly disfavored by USA due to the fact that it is making meaningless the Nabucco
project.
Another curious initiative, which came to the fore in June, is connected to the fact that
the likelihood of a new military alliance at the Black Sea was announced, by means of a
military treaty between Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, under the name of Black Sea Defense
Treaty. This new Aliance has the potential of undermining the euroatlantic expansion – it
is balancing against two NATO members – Bulgaria and Roumania, it is a point won by
Russia in the competition with the USA and the European Union on the Ukrainian issue,
and it is making Turkey drifting toward continentalism.
Thus, we could see that the geopolitical interactions in the Black Sea Region are not
arranged according to some predetermined dividing lines between states, each of them
being occasionaly part of some shifting alliances. This oscillatory behaviour increases
the degree of unpredictability of the Black Sea Region, transforming it into a zone of high
geopolitical seismicity.
Republic of Moldova and the
Geopolitics of the Black Sea
Since its inception, Republic of Moldova used to pursue a multivectorial foreign policy, being
periodically shaken by some drastic changes of geopolitical alignments, due to its statute of
„no men’s land”. For two years since 2004, Moldova was tempted by the euroatlantic vector,
which was especially visible during president Voronin legitimizing meetings with Iushenko,
Basescu and Saakashvili in 2005 and the hosting of the GUAM Summit in Chisinau in the
same year, when a rejuvenation of this organization was attempted. Later, the communist
government opted for a new switch in foreign policy toward the East, launching an ideological
war against Romania and adopting the policy of „empty seat” in GUAM. Nevertheless, it
should be mentioned that Moldova’s positioning in the Black Sea Region is determined
generally, by the imperative of its own survival as a state.
Lacking the possibilities of other states (Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine) to play the role of
some secondary regional leader, Moldova is sandwiched between different contradictory
interests of their eastern and western neighbours. Despite the apparent normalization of
its relationships with Romania, Moldova is forced to promote a very prudent foreign policy
toward its western neighbour, being compelled to take into account seriously the so-called
panromanism warnings. Marco Papic from Stratfor and Sabina Fati from Free Romania
suggested recently the Romanian interest for negotiating with Russia the inclusion of
Moldova without Transnistria in Romania in exchange for some economic favours. Besides,
the member of the Supreme’s Rada Foreign Policy Committee of Ukraine Alexei Logvinenko,
admitted on July 14 that the absorbtion of Moldova by Romania could lead to the worsening
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4. 4 Moldova’s Foreign Policy statewatch
of the bilateral relationships between Romania and Ukraine. The same idea was expoused
by the Russian polical scientist Alexei Kuzimin. All these fears are exacerbated by the
promotion of the so-called „ historical politics” by the Liberal Party in Chisinau, which is
based on massive utilization of national symbols in public discourse.
Conversely, Republic of Moldova is obliged to be very careful in dealing with Ukraine,
especially when Transnistria is concerned. The joint statement made by Medvedev and
Ianukovici on May 17, was received very coldly by the moldavian political elite, who was
embarrased by this convergence in views on Transnistria issue, bypassing the so-called
5+2 format of negoctiation. At the same time, Moldova’s politicians were shocked by the
declaration made by the Suprem Rada’s Chief of the Foreign Policy Committee Oleg Bilorus,
who refered to a secret covenant between Russian and Ukranian presidents which involves
a partition of Moldova between Ukraine (Transnistria) and Russia (right bank of Dnester
river). This covenant has been fiercely disavowed by the official Kiev, although it remains
as a burn in Moldova’s public awareness.
Conclusions
There is a slow process of repostioning of the main geopolitical actors in the Black Sea
Region. Moldova’s neighbours – Ukraine and Romania are not going to align themselves
automatically with the main geopolitical trends, prefering more subtle approaches and
pursuing with much more persistence their own national interests. Within this framework,
Moldova is compelled to maintain a peaceful and cooperative dialogue with its neighbours,
being at the same time on guard in order to avoid above-mentioned absorbtions. On the
one hand, an excessive reorientation towards Romania will deprive Moldova, according to
some analysts, of its raison d’etre, creating very tense reations with Ukraine and, possibly,
Russia. The recent unnanounced decision of Moldova’s authorities to transmit just to the
Romanian part personal data of all Moldovan citizens is an example of how rumours about
absorbtion could be incited. On the other hand, an inconclusive policy towards Ukraine
could lead to strains between Chisinau, Kiev and Tiraspol, harming the process of country
reintegration and endangering Moldova’s fragile ethnic and identity equilibrium. Being
trapped in this geopolitical Black Sea „casino”, Moldova is determined to follow a policy of
„trancending” this narrow framework of mutual rivalries in the region, opting for the European
Union integration as a tool of passing by this regional mess.
This publication was produced by idis “viitorul” with the financial support of soros Foundation
Moldova and the national endowment for democracy. The opinions expressed in this publicati-
on reflect the author’s/authors’ position and don’t necessary represent the views of the donors.
str. iacob hîncu 10/1, chişinău Md-2005 republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 fax office@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org
str. iacob hîncu 10/1, chişinău Md-2005 republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 fax
office@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org