Mark W. Rosegrant COP Session November 16, 2016 Session Title: Coping with Climate Change in MENA Region: Meeting future food demand through science and innovation Time & Location: 15:00 – 16:30, Room 1, Green Zone Partners: ICARDA (Leading Role) & INRA Morocco

1. The Role of Agricultural Policy Reform and
Investment in meeting
Future Food and Nutritional Security in the
Middle East and North Africa
November 16, 2016
Mark W. Rosegrant
Director
Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute

2. 1
Outline
 Challenges for Middle East and North Africa
(MENA) Food Security and Environmental
Sustainability
 IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis
of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
(IMPACT) and Scenarios
 Results and Analysis
 Policy Recommendations

3. 2
Challenges for MENA Food Security and
Environmental Sustainability
 Increasing population and demographic shifts
 Rising incomes and demand and diet changes
 Variable oil prices / biofuel expansion
 High and volatile food prices
 Limited land resources
 Depletion of groundwater, water pollution,
declining water quality, and degradation of
water-related ecosystems
 Climate change

4. IFPRI’S IMPACT MODEL AND
SCENARIOS

5. 4
IFPRI’s IMPACT Model
Exploring alternative climate and investment futures
 Linked climate, water, crop
and economic models
 Estimates of production,
consumption, hunger, and
environmental impacts
 High level of disaggregation
• 159 countries
• 154 water basins
• 60 commodities
 Links to other global modeling
groups through AgMIP and to
all 15 CGIAR centers through
GFSF
Source: Robinson et al. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of
Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT); Model description for version
3". IFPRI Discussion Paper. International Food Policy Research Institute:
Washington, DC..

6. Climate Change Impacts in 2050
HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT Simulations
Maximum temperature (°C)Annual precipitation (mm)
Change in wheat yields before economic adjustments (%)

7. 6
Scenarios
 2050 No Climate Change (NoCC)
• Population and income trends from SSP2
• Baseline scenario that includes “business-as-usual”
continuation of current trends in markets and development
• Climate held constant at 2005 levels
 2050 with Climate Change (CC)
• Same baseline assumptions as above for “business-as-usual”
• Climate follows relatively severe model representation
(HadGEM) of the warmest future climate scenario (RCP 8.5)

8. 7
 2050 with Climate Change and Comprehensive
Investment Portfolio (COMP)
• Increases reference agricultural sector investments in climate change
scenario (starting in 2015)
• R&D: Additional CGIAR system investments in agricultural R&D to
increase agricultural productivity in the developing world (specified at
crop- and region-specific level in consultation with other CGIAR
centers)
• Water: Expansion of irrigation systems along with enhancing water
use efficiency and soil management (minimum-till, ISFM, rainwater
harvesting)
• Infrastructure: Infrastructure investment in transportation and energy
sectors to benefit agricultural production and value chains
Scenarios

9. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

10. 9
Annual Additional Cost of Comprehensive Investment
Scenario to 2050 (billion 2005 USD per year)
Region
Direct Investment in Agriculture
Infrastructure TotalAgricultural
R&D
Irrigation
Expansion
Water Use
Efficiency
Soil & Water
Management
Africa South of
the Sahara
1.66 1.26 0.19 0.80 2.07 5.98
Middle East &
North Africa
0.04 0.38 0.28 0.59 0.94 2.23
Africa and
Middle East
1.70 1.64 0.47 1.39 3.00 8.20
Other
Developing
Countries
0.27 1.98 4.23 1.92 8.85 17.25
Developing
Countries
1.97 3.63 4.69 3.31 11.86 25.45

11. 10
Average crop yields in 2050 (indexed, 2010 = 1.0)
by region and scenario
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
World Developing
Countries
MENA Northern Africa Middle East Central Asia
2050 - NoCC 2050 - CC 2050 - COMP

12. 11
World prices in 2050 (indexed, 2010 = 1.0)
by commodity group and scenario
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Meat Cereals Fruits and
Vegetables
Food Oils Pulses Roots and
Tubers
Sugar
2050 - NoCC 2050 - HGEM 2050 - COMP

13. 12
Average food supply (kilocalorie per person per day)
in 2010 and 2050, by region and scenario
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
World Developing
Countries
MENA Northern Africa Middle East Central Asia
2010 2050 -NoCC 2050 -HGEM 2050 -COMP

14. 13
Net trade for wheat (000 metric tons)
in 2010 and 2050, by region and scenario
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Developing
Countries
MENA Northern Africa Middle East Central Asia
2010 - NoCC 2050 - NoCC 2050 - HGEM 2050 - COMP

15. 14
Prevalence of hunger (millions of people) and
as share of the total population (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
World Developing
Countries
MENA Northern Africa Middle East Central Asia
ShareatRiskofHunger(%)
PopulationatRiskofHunger(million)
2010 - NoCC 2030 - NoCC 2030 - HGEM 2030 - COMP
2010 - NoCC 2030 - NoCC 2030 - HGEM 2030 - COMP
The bars represent the number of people at risk of hunger in each region (left axis). The bubbles
represent the share of the region’s total population at risk of hunger (right axis).

16. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

17. 16
Accelerate Investments in Agricultural R&D
Invest in technologies for:
 Crop and livestock breeding
• High-yielding varieties
• Biotic- and abiotic-stress resistant varieties
 Modernize breeding programs in developing countries through
• Provision of genomics
• High throughput gene-sequencing
• Gene editing
• Bio-informatics
 GMOs where sufficient genetic variation does not exist in the
crop
• Nitrogen use efficiency
• Drought, heat and salinity tolerance
• Insect and disease resistance

18. 17
Promote Complementary Policies and Investments
 Invest in rural infrastructure and irrigation
 Increase access to high-value supply chains and markets
e.g. fruits and vegetables
 Regulatory reform: reduce hurdles to approval and
release of new cultivars and technologies
 Remove impediments (e.g. restrictive “notified” crop lists,
excessive testing and certification requirements, foreign
investment barriers, ad hoc biosafety decision-making)
 Extension of farming systems: minimum tillage, ISFM,
integrated pest management, precision agriculture

19. 18
Reform Economic Policies
 Support open trading regimes to share climate risk
 Establishment of secure water rights and
implementation of economic incentives for efficient
water
 Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions and
encourage water use beyond economically appropriate
levels
• Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies
• Savings invested in activities that boost farm output and
income