Mahmoud Solh Ifad Workshop Pre Final Oct 2009

1. Research Outputs and Approaches to Enhance Food Security and Improve Livelihoods in Dry Areas International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Mahmoud Solh Director General IFAD/ICARDA Information Exchange Workshop

3. The Changing World

7. Dry areas cover 41% of the earth’s surface, and are home to over 1.7 billion people – and the majority of the world’s poor. About 16% of the population lives in chronic poverty, particularly in marginal rainfed areas. Predominance of Dry Areas

9. Desertification/Land Degradation

11. Urban population will outpace rural Urbanization and Out-Migration Source: FAO.2002. World Agriculture: towards 2015/2030 Summary Report U rbanisation in developing countries will accelerate over the next 30 years 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 billion people Rural Urban projected projected

12. Urbanization in Countries of Dry Areas Source: FAO Statistical Yearbook, Vol.1, 2004. Urbanization % 0 20 40 60 80 100 Ethiopia Afghanistan Eritrea Tajikistan Yemen Somalia Pakistan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Sudan Egypt Turkmenistan Syria Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Morocco Algeria Mauritania Armenia Tunisia Iran Turkey Cyprus Iraq Palestine Jordan UAE Libya Lebanon Saudi Arabia Kuwait Less than 30% 30-50% 51-70% More than 70%

14. World Development Report 2008

15. Unemployment rate in the world and world regions High Level of Unemployment Source: World Employment Report 2004-05: Employment, productivity and poverty reduction. ILO, December 2004.

16. Lack of employment opportunities Socio-political upheavals Increase in Food Prices Climate Change (Global CO 2 emissions) Over-exploitation of natural resources Migration Population growth Aboitic Stresses drought, heat, salinity Food Insecurity, poverty, hunger and malnutrition Land degradation, water scarcity, loss of biodiversity Interrelationships between key challenges in dry areas Food Insecurity & Poverty Trap

18. Cereal Demand Far Outpaces Domestic Production in Arab Countries Source : Authors. Adapted from IFPRI, 2008. Note : Includes Sudan; MT is metric tons

19. Widening Food Gap in Arab Countries

21. 1970-2030 -10 40 90 140 190 240 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030 million tones East Asia South Asia Near East/North Africa Latin America S.S.Africa Historical Development Projections Cereals imports of developing regions Food Insecurity Source: FAO, 2002 World Agriculture: towards 2015/30, http://www.fao.org/es/ESD/gstudies.htm

22. Crop Prospects and Food Situation, April 2008 FAO. Impact of Food Price Increases on Trade Balances, 2007-2008

23. Crop Prospects and Food Situation, April 2008 FAO Wheat Importers & Exporters 2007 (mt)

24. Implications of the Food Crisis: Countries moving from self-reliance to self sufficiency

25. Pathways Out of Food Insecurity & Poverty Better employment opportunities Peace and social stability Pro-poor policy and institutional options Adaptation/mitigation to climate change Diversification and access to markets Human resource development Improved food security Food Security & Better Livelihoods Resilient production systems Sustainable use of natural resources

29. IWMI Colombo, Sri Lanka CIFOR Bogor, Indonesia ICLARM Penang, Malaysa IRRI Los Banos, Philippines ICRISAT Patancheru, India ICRAF Nairobi, Kenya ILRI Nairobi, Kenya IITA IBADAN, Nigeria WARDA Bouake, Cote d’Iviore Bioversity Rome, Italy CIP Lima, Peru CIAT Cali, Colombia CIMMYT Mexico City, Mexico IFPRI Washinton D.C., United States ICARDA Aleppo, Syria The CGIAR Centers

31. To overcome these challenges and enhance food security in a changing world …

33. ICARDA’s Geographic Mandate

34. CWANA Dry areas (outside CWANA) Temperate Temperate Sub-Tropical Sub-Tropical Tropical Latin America Nile Valley and Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa West Asia Arabian Peninsula South Asia and China Highlands Central Asia and the Caucasus ICARDA’s Outreach Programs: Center without Walls

35. ICARDA Vision Improved livelihoods of the resource-poor in dry areas

36. ICARDA’s Mission “ To contribute to the improvement of livelihoods of the resource poor in dry areas by enhancing food security and alleviating poverty through research and partnerships to achieve sustainable increases in agricultural productivity and income, while ensuring the efficient and more equitable use and conservation of natural resources.”

37. Technical Mandate: Cereal Improvement Barley Global Mandate Bread Wheat Durum Wheat Regional Mandate

38. Technical Mandate (cont’d) : Food Legume Improvement Global Mandate Lentil Kabuli Chickpea Grass pea Faba bean

40. Technical Mandate (cont’d): Natural Resource Management in Non-Tropical Dry Areas Range improvement Forage Legumes Water use efficiency Land degradation Small ruminant nutrition

41. ICARDA’s Major Research Programs Biodiversity and Integrated Gene Management Integrated Water and Land Management Diversification and Sustainable Intensification of Production Systems Social, Economic and Policy Research

42. Pillars of Sustainable Agricultural Development to Enhance Food Security Integration in the field Institutions, Policy, and Community Approach Natural Resource Management& Inputs Crop & Livestock Genetic Improvement

45. ICARDA Gene Bank: germplasm collected (Apr 2009) Number of Accessions Crop 2007- 2009 1977-2009 Barley 489 24,823 Wheat 658 33,639 Wild cereals 38 7,300 Forage legumes 0 28,330 Food legumes 292 32,456 Wild food legumes 0 851 Forage and range 0 5,666 Total 1,477 133,065

46. Geographic coverage of the conserved plant genetic resources at ICARDA

47. Conventional Plant Breeding

49. Crop Improvement: Varieties Released using ICARDA Germplasm Worldwide, 1977 to 2008 1977 - 2008 Last 2 years Crop Developing Countries Industrialized Countries All Countries Barley 175 31 6 Durum Wheat 102 14 1 Bread Wheat 224 6 9 Chickpea 108 31 9 Faba Bean 51 6 1 Lentil 96 16 9 Forages 30 2 2 Peas 9 0 0 Sub-Total 761 120 24 Total 901 37 NET ESTIMATED BENEFIT = about US $850 m / year

51. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Area Needed Actual Area Linear (Area Trend) Actual Production Linear (Production Trend) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wheat in Syria Area Saved and Production Reached Wheat area (million ha) Production (million tons) 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 7

52. Wheat Crossed with Wild Relatives: Synthetic Wheat, tolerance to excessive drought Yield of “synthetic derivatives” compared to parents under drought stress. (Tel Hadya 2008 -- 211 mm) Parent Variety Yield t/ha % recurrent parent Cham 6*2/SW2 1.6 147 Cham 6*2/SW2 1.5 138 Cham-6 1.10 100 Attila-7 1.3 -

53. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Low (280mm) High (480mm) Average Maximum Yield of Synthetic Wheat Varieties derived from wild relatives under moisture extremes Yield (tons/ha) Moisture stress

54. Yields (kg/ha) of promising durum wheat genotypes under rainfed (RF) supplemental irrigation (SI) Key to Acronyms: RF = Rainfed; SI = Supplemental Irrigation RF ( 321 mm) RF+SI ( 321+70 mm) RF+SI ( 524+70 mm) 11 t/ha 6/t/ha 3.7t/ha

55. Heat-Tolerant Wheat in Sudan

56. Resistance/Tolerance to Hessian Fly in Morocco Hessian Fly Resistant

57. Black Stem Rust (Ug99)Resistant Wheat Lines Released in Ethiopia On-going Seed multiplications of resistant varieties in Egypt, Pakistan Afghanistan

58. Barley for Excessive Drought in Syria Local Landrace “ Zahra” versus local landrace (139 mm rainfall)

60. New Chickpea Variety Survived 2007 Drought in Turkey The Kabuli chickpea, ‘Gokce’, developed by ICARDA and Turkish national scientists, has withstood severe drought in Turkey and produced when most other crops failed in 2007. Gokce is used on about 85% of the chickpea production areas (over 550,000 ha). With a yield advantage of 300 kg/ha over other varieties , and world prices over USD 1000/t, this represents an additional USD 165 million for Turkish farmers , in 2007 alone.

61. Ethiopia / ICARDA Collaboration Alemaya lentil variety widely adopted through EARI

62. Source of employment in rural areas - Ethiopia

65. Capacity Development in the Seed Production Sector Favorable areas Less favorable areas National Seed Sector Develop-ment Framework Policy and regulatory reforms and harmonization Liberalization/commercialization of seed sector Mobilizing farmers and/or communities Encouraging local seed production and marketing Formal Sector Public Private Informal Sector VBSEs NGOs F A R M R E R S I M P A C T S

66. Informal Seed Sector: Village-Based Seed Enterprises (VBSE) VBSE: Afghanistan (17), Egypt (2), Eritrea (1), Pakistan (4)

73. Wheat infested by Sunn pest Predators of Sunn pest eggs Sunn pest killed by Fungi isolate IPM of Sunn Pest in Wheat

76. 0 50 100 150 200 250 2001 2002 2003 Years 127 193 231 300 277 2004 Sprayed areas (1000 ha) Evolution of Sprayed Areas against Sunn Pest in Syria 282 2005 232 2006 185 117 2007 2008 2009 87

78. Benchmark Sites for Integrated Water Management

79. Implementation in Three Agro-Ecologies Rainfed Areas Marginal Lands Irrigated Areas

83. Potential of WUE: Supplemental Irrigation (SI), Rainfed and Fully Irrigated (FI) Areas WUE: Water Use Efficiency

84. Tradeoffs between Water & Land Productivity - Deficit Irrigation Water productivity can be Increased Substantially Water, not Land, is the Limiting Resource Max WP Max Yield

88. Soilless Culture Increased yield per unit of water, space and energy Protected Agriculture

89. Diversifying production and diets; generating more income and improving water use efficiency Protected Agriculture for Resource-Poor Farmers Afghanistan Yemen

91. GIS to Target for Crop Diversification

92. New researchable themes in GIS: identifying areas suitable for de-rocking Idleb Governorate: Areas with some potential for de-rocking in Jebel Wastani and Jebel Zawia, requiring further investigation

97. Iraq: ZT evaluation by farmers in 2008/09 Azaz Tel Kief Ninevah: 6 farmers growing 437 ha of ZT crops using modified Rama seeder Mr Sinan Jalili, Alnamroud Modified ZT Rama seeder

98. Syria: ZT demonstrations with farmers in 2008/09 Afrin El Bab Syria: 41 farmers testing ZT on 2073 ha Musselmiya Maara ZT CC

100. Fabrication of Seed Drills - Iraq & Syria ZT Seeder with press wheels, Mosul Co. for Mechanical Works Rama (John Shearer) ZT seeder modified by local farmer ( Mr Ghazi Fathi ) Locally manufactured machinery for zero tillage (ZT) are now available (ACIAR Project)

102. Ecosystem Resilience: Integrated Crop/Rangeland/Livestock Production Systems Barley Production Cactus & Fodder Shrubs By-products Feed Blocks On-farm Feed Production Natural Pastures Enhancement & Rangeland Management Successful Technologies Flock management

104. Effect of strategic feeding of urea-molasses feed blocks on performance of ewes & lambs (Average of two years, 7 flocks in 3 villages) Technology for improved feeding: Strategic Feeding of Low Cost Balanced Diets

110. High-yielding forages identified Grasspea & Vetch

111. Grain Straw 1 2-year average, 3 replicates High-yielding forages identified Grasspea & Vetch

112. High-yielding forages identified: Cowpea

113. Grain Fodder 1 2-year average, 3 replicates High-yielding forages identified: Grasspea & Vetch

114. Enhanced knowledge & information: field days

115. Participation in the Fodder Project: 600 participating households in 13 villages 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 BalaiAsia Labenar Mataki Saraki-4 Logari Shinwari Ghorbani Saraki Mamorin Saraki Atiq Atiq Khan Kotiha Sarak-3 Saraki Awal Sarak-2 Participating Households

116. More impact at farmers’ level

118. D D R for ICARDA Research for Development vs Research and Development Research for Development

119. Diagnostic & Base Line Surveys Basic Research Applied Research Adaptive/Strategic Research Researcher/Extension Agent/Farmer on-Farm Trials Farmer-Managed On-Farm Trials Pilot Production-Cum-Demonstration Plots by Farmers; Extension Commercial Production Project IMPACT STUDIES The Continuum from Basic Research to Technology Transfer ON-FARM FEEDBACK Adoption Studies

121. Transfer and Adaptation Up-scaling and Extrapolation Integrated Research Site Similar environment Different environment ICARDA Linking Research with Development GIS + Bio-economic Modeling GIS

122. Using GIS for Finding of Similarity with Research Benchmark Sites for up scaling and diffusion of Technology

123. Community Approach & Community Action Plans Community Community Technologies Technologies Policy & Policy & Property right Property right studies studies Agro Agro - - Ecological Ecological Characterization Characterization Scenarii Scenarii Modeling Modeling Validation with community representatives Validation with community representatives Presentation to decision makers Presentation to decision makers Private sector Other communities Public institutions Community Community Technologies Technologies Policy & Policy & Property right Property right studies studies Agro Agro - - Ecological Ecological Characterization Characterization Community Action Plan & Scenarios Modeling Modeling NGOs Validation with community representatives Validation with community representatives Presentation to decision makers Presentation to decision makers Private sector Other communities Public institutions

124. M&M Phase1 Dropped Chosen technologies Local Institutions Adopted Rejected Offered technologies M&M Phase2 participatory approach

125. Livelihood Analysis & Income Mapping

127. Participatory in Crop Improvement Farmers score barley lines according to their selection criteria in a participatory barley breeding project of ICARDA in Eritrea

128. Small holder farmers Large farmers Traders /intermediaries Local market/ retailers Exporters Processors Fresh: wholesale, retailers, shops; hotels Supermarkets Domestic consumers International consumer Value chain: Conceptual framework Institutions, policies, government regulations, etc Canned food ACTIVITIES BY STAGE & ACTOR L INKAGES& POWER

130. Impact of Improved Technologies on Profitability (Net Return $/ha) Technology Country Adopters Non-adopters Increase Wheat Egypt 1,191 830 43% Sudan 510 134 281% Yemen 677 318 113% Faba bean Egypt 962 820 17% Ethiopia 164 108 52% Sudan 369 293 26% Chickpea Ethiopia 551 201 174% Lentil Ethiopia 781 451 73%

132. Adoption and Impact of Technologies At Farmers’ & Rural Community Levels

133. THANK YOU