Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat
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8 May 2019. Cairo. ICARDA Workshop on Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture. Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat. Presentation by by Prof. Senthold Asseng, Professor at the Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department of the University of Florida.
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Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat
- 1. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat Senthold Asseng
- 2. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 …wheat was always important… Egypt National Museum Egypt National Museum Edfu Temple
- 3. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Agriculture & population growth World Bank 2016, Bourguignon and Morrisson 2002 Global population (billion) Extreme poverty/hunger 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1820 1850 1900 1950 2000 2015
- 4. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Projected population growth https://population.un.org 7.7 billion today Global population (billion) 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1800 1900 1960 2000 2060 2100
- 5. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Agriculture & food demand Increase food demand Population increase • 3 billion in 1960 • 7.7 billion now • >9 billion in 2050 • 800 M undernourished BUT (West et al. 2014 Science)… Undernourished population Source: United Nations Statistics 2012 Food Waste http://lifereallymatters.com Overweight Calories (T kg) Food Feed Other Global calorie production West et al. 2014 Science 1961 1980 2000 2009 Year
- 6. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Produce more food Population increase Need 60% more food in 2050 (Alexandratos & Bruinsma 2012 FAO Report) Increase nutritional value Tamp Agriculture & food demand
- 7. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Produce more food Increase nutritional value Reduce environmental impact (Irrigationin agriculture = 70% of global water withdrawals with India, Pakistan, China, USA = 72% of all irrigation) (West et al. 2014 Science) High risk of surface water pollution across the world Ippolito et al. 2015 Environmental Pollution Tamp Agriculture & pollution
- 8. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Produce more food Increase nutritional value Reduce environmental impact Agriculture & pollution News4Jax, 13 August 2018 Cordell and Stuart White 2011 Sustainability Phosphorus production (Mt P/year)
- 9. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Agriculture Produce more food Increase nutritional value Reduce environmental impact …Climate change
- 10. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Climate change & green house effect Carbon dioxide acts like a blanket, absorbing IR radiation & preventing it from escaping into outer space net effect heating of Earth
- 11. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Since when do we know about climate change? Arrhenius 1896 Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science - doubling of atmospheric CO2 could cause an increase in Earth’s surface temperature of 6.1 – 8.1°C (3.1 – 5.0°C suggest by GCMs)Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius
- 12. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 NASA Past temperature trend
- 13. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Knutti and Sedlacek 2013 Nature CC Future temperature trend
- 14. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Agriculture --- Climate Change Climate Change Temperature increased by 1.0 oC By 2050: Atmospheric CO2 >500ppm By 2100: Temperature +2 to 4 oC More extremes (heat, droughts, rainfall). (IPCC 2015) Produce more food Increase nutritional value Reduce environmental impact
- 15. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 AgMIP Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project AgMIP is a distributed program: model intercomparison and future climate change impacts multiple climate, crop & agricultural economics modeling groups around the world started in 2010 close to 1000 members >30 teams Rosenzweig et al., 2013 AFM www.agmip.org
- 16. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 For protocols, up-to-date events, and news; and to join AgMIP listserv – www.agmip.org
- 17. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Modeling (Wheat) Cropping Systems CO2 Light Temperature Rainfall/Irrigation Crop Management Carter 2013 Soil Time (Ozone) Cultivar Agronomy Breeding
- 18. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 $2M in yield (4000ha farm @$200/t) $360,000 in N costs (90kg N @1$/kg N) Individual farms 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 0 1 2 3 Western Australian wheat-belt 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006Mean Mullewa & Yuna rainfall 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 0 200 400 600 Western Australian wheat-belt rainfall 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Grain Yield (t/ha) Rainfall (mm) Year May to October Annual Seasonal variability Asseng et al. 2012 EJA
- 19. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Maximum and minimum temperature (OC) 4 8 12 16 20 24 Wheat yield (t/ha) (Wet season) 2 3 4 5 Wheat yield (t/ha) (Dry season) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Tmax Tmin Grain yield (simulated) Western Australia Seasonal variability – rainfall & temperature Asseng et al. 2011 GCB wet season dry season Grain yield (simulated)
- 20. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 observed - symbols simulated - lines 0 1 2 3 N application (t/ha) 0 40 80 120 160 200 240ilisation ha) 0 1 2 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 L1 1991 L1 1992 L2 L3 Remobilisation (t/ha) Asseng & van Herwaarden 2003 Plant Soil Remobilisation of water-soluble carbohydrates
- 21. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Gross margins (A$/farm) (,000) 0 200 400 600 800AllC rop AllC rop + forecast C rop / Pasture C rop + forecast/ PastureC rop + forecast/ Pasture +forecast Nyabing 3000 ha farm, duplex soil GM’s from sheep Forecast benefit Seasonal forecast – wheat/sheep farming Asseng et al. 2012 Ag Syst
- 22. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average monthly rainfall (mm) 0 20 40 60 80 Ludwig, Milroy & Asseng 2009 Climatic Change 1945 – 1974 1975 - 2008 wheat Yield impact depends on: pattern of rainfall change soil type (water storage capacity) Declining rainfall does not necessarily mean less yield
- 23. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Multi-model approach
- 24. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 x x x x AgMIP-Wheat 25 models consistent across 2 data sets: a) 4 pilot locations – contrasting conditions b) 6 CIMMYT hot locations (2 cultivars)
- 25. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Median 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Location Model 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Rank value 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Median 1 2 3 4 Location Model 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Rank value Model ranking (to observation) 6-CIMMYT hot locations (2 cultivars)4-pilot locations – contrasting conditions
- 26. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Multi-model ensembles
- 27. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Multi-model ensembles Season mean temperature (°C) 15 20 25 30 35 Grainyield(t/ha) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Bruce Kimball Asseng et al. 2015 Nature CC Season mean temperature (°C) 15 20 25 30 35 Grainyield(t/ha) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 simulated median +/-25%tile observed
- 28. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Multi-model ensembles Multi-model ensemble median is a better predictor than any single model ! • Wheat yields --- Asseng et al. 2013 Nature CC • Wheat yields (heat stress) --- Asseng et al. 2015 Nature CC • Wheat variables --- Martre et al. 2014 GCB • Maize yields --- Bassu et al. 2014 GCB • Rice yields --- Li et al. 2014 GCB • Potato yields --- Fleisher et al. 2016 GCB • Stats explanation --- Wallach et al. 2018 GCB
- 29. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Temperature impact on crops
- 30. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Wheat Yield decline with increasing temperature Asseng et al. 2015 Nature CC 6% decline in global wheat production for each degree in global warming Wheat producing area 30 model ensemble median (& mean of 30 years) +2 oC
- 31. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Experiments Assimilation Root Shoot + Leaf Grain Residues (surface) Residues (roots) BIOM C:N HUM C:N FOM carbohydartes lignin cellulose Mineral-N NH4 NO3 urea NH4 Mineralisation Immobilisation Harvest Leaching C N C N N C,N C,N CO2 TUE Es Ep Denitrification FertiliserCO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 LL SATDUL runoff Drainage 1 2 3 n rainfall max & min temperature solar radiation C Water Soil Crop Phenology Crop models Impact Multi-model points US wheat yields Statistical models Global-gridded
- 32. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Zhao et al. 2017 PNAS Impacts of global temperature increase on global yield estimates for major crops (using 4 methods) Yield impact with 1oC increase in global temperature (%) Impacts of 1oC (For wheat: Liu et al. 2016 Nature CC)
- 33. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Climate change impact on crops
- 34. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Grain yield Grain protein % 550ppm Model testing with CO2 x T x Rain (Increased T) Median of 32 (18 with N) wheat models Asseng et al. 2019 GCB simulated observed
- 35. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Median of 32 models, 5 GCMs, mean of 30 years, RCP8.5 @2050s Asseng et al. 2019 GCB Climate change impact (temperature, CO2, rain) on grain yield
- 36. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Climate change impact (temperature, CO2, rain) on grain yield Median of 32 models, 5 GCMs, mean of 30 years, RCP8.5 @2050s Mexico -7.9% (3 CM x 5 GCMs, 2050s, RCP8.5) Hernandez-Ochoa et al. 2018 AFM Egypt -1.7% (3 CM x 3 GCMs, 2050, RCP8.5, +techno trend) Asseng, Kheir et al. 2018 ERL Asseng et al. 2019 GCB
- 37. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Adaptation: Field observations from 4 experiments Proposed adaptation to increased temperature: Delay anthesis + increase grain filling rate, Asseng et al. 2015 Nature CC Does exist, Asseng et al. 2019 GCB Asseng et al. 2019 GCB Warm Cold
- 38. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Climate change impact (2050) at global scale (temperature, CO2, rain) Asseng et al. 2019 GCB Median of 32 (18 with N) models
- 39. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Country trends (2002-2015) of N fertilizer use in agriculture (top 20 wheat producer) FAO, 2018 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nuse(*1,000t) China India Russia USA France 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nuse(*1,000t) Canada Germany Pakistan Ukraine Australia 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nuse(*1,000t) Turkey United Kingdom Argentina Kazakhstan Poland Nutrients likely to limit growth stimulus from elevated CO2 in many regions
- 40. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Climate extremes - impact on crops
- 41. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Price & extreme drought/heat 2008 Food Riots 2010 Arab Spring 0 100 200 300 400 500 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Wheat price (US$/t) Source: FAO 2010 Drought/heat 20 40 60 80 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Wheat production (million tons) Russia Source: FAO
- 42. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Asseng, Kheir et al. 2018 ERL Egypt: stagnating yields since 2000 & heat shock simulated Year 2010 (1.5Mt or 16% drop) Stagnating yields in many countries Ray et al. 2012 Nature Comms
- 43. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 1900 - 2006 2080 - 2100 Battisti & Naylor 2009 Science Temperature anomaly (oC) Number of seasons France 2003 hottest year in 100 years, normal in 2090 Current extremes will be the normal by end of century
- 44. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Ben-Ari et al. 2018 Nature Comms New kind of yield shock caused by climate change trends Year 2016 (13Mt or 32% drop) Combination of warmer early winter + intensive rainfall (during key crop stages) caused: increased disease pressure, water logging, nutrient leaching, lower solar radiation France
- 45. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 Agriculture --- Climate Change Climate Change Temperature increased by 1.0 oC By 2050: Atmospheric CO2 >500ppm By 2100: Temperature +2 to 4 oC More extremes (heat, droughts, rainfall). (IPCC 2015) Produce more food Increase nutritional value Reduce environmental impact
- 46. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019 “You can't build a peaceful world on empty stomachs …” Dr. Norman Borlaug, 1970 Nobel Peace Prize Senthold Asseng sasseng@ufl.edu
Notas do Editor
- 1.4 M young people in 123 countries
- 2017 northern Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen. And this week, the United Nations declared famine in a patch of South Sudan. 20M people affected Currently enough food to feed everybody 30% food waste (storage, end-user) Over-consumption (2 B people obese/overweight) Closing yield gap – e.g. increasing yields to 50% of potential yield = food for 850 M people Changing meat consumption & biofuels could feed 4 B people Relative to the 17 major crops, rice and wheat together cover 63% of the total irrigated area and consume 59% of irrigation water globally. +1C since start of industrial revolution 1960 = 3b people 2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b 0.6 = 1.0 F 2=3.6F 4=6.2F
- 2017 northern Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen. And this week, the United Nations declared famine in a patch of South Sudan. 20M people affected Currently enough food to feed everybody 30% food waste (storage, end-user) Over-consumption (2 B people obese/overweight) Closing yield gap – e.g. increasing yields to 50% of potential yield = food for 850 M people Changing meat consumption & biofuels could feed 4 B people Relative to the 17 major crops, rice and wheat together cover 63% of the total irrigated area and consume 59% of irrigation water globally. +1C since start of industrial revolution 1960 = 3b people 2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b 0.6 = 1.0 F 2=3.6F 4=6.2F
- 2017 northern Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen. And this week, the United Nations declared famine in a patch of South Sudan. 20M people affected Currently enough food to feed everybody 30% food waste (storage, end-user) Over-consumption (2 B people obese/overweight) Closing yield gap – e.g. increasing yields to 50% of potential yield = food for 850 M people Changing meat consumption & biofuels could feed 4 B people Relative to the 17 major crops, rice and wheat together cover 63% of the total irrigated area and consume 59% of irrigation water globally. +1C since start of industrial revolution 1960 = 3b people 2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b 0.6 = 1.0 F 2=3.6F 4=6.2F
- Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate +1C since start of industrial revolution 1960 = 3b people 2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b 0.6 = 1.0 F 2=3.6F 4=6.2F
- Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate +1C since start of industrial revolution 1960 = 3b people 2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b 0.6 = 1.0 F 2=3.6F 4=6.2F
- Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate +1C since start of industrial revolution 1960 = 3b people 2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b 0.6 = 1.0 F 2=3.6F 4=6.2F
- Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate +1C since start of industrial revolution 1960 = 3b people 2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b 0.6 = 1.0 F 2=3.6F 4=6.2F
- Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases act like a blanket, absorbing IR radiation (longwave) and preventing it from escaping into outer space. The net effect is the gradual heating of Earth's atmosphere and surface, a process known as global warming. Solar energy enters as shortwave (UV and visible light). Earth re-emits energy as longwave radiation in the form of infrared rays. Figure b1. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, absorb heat energy and emit it in all directions (including downwards), keeping Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere warm. Adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere enhances the effect, making Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere even warmer. Image based on a figure from US EPA.
- doubling of atmospheric CO2 could cause an increase in Earth’s surface temperature of 11 - 14.5°F (5.5 - 9°F suggest by GCMs) Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases act like a blanket, absorbing IR radiation and preventing it from escaping into outer space. The net effect is the gradual heating of Earth's atmosphere and surface, a process known as global warming Figure b1. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, absorb heat energy and emit it in all directions (including downwards), keeping Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere warm. Adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere enhances the effect, making Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere even warmer. Image based on a figure from US EPA.
- emperature histories from paleoclimate data (green line) compared to the history based on modern instruments (blue line) suggest that global temperature is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000 years, and possibly longer. (Graph adapted from Mann et al., 2008.)
- Global temperature change (mean and one standard deviation as shading) relative to 1986–2005 for the SRES scenarios run by CMIP3 and the RCP scenarios run by CMIP5. The number of models is given in brackets. The box plots (mean, one standard deviation, and minimum to maximum range) are given for 2080–2099 for CMIP5 (colours) and for the MAGICC model calibrated to 19 CMIP3 models (black), both running the RCP scenarios.
- Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate +1C since start of industrial revolution 1960 = 3b people 2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b 0.6 = 1.0 F 2=3.6F 4=6.2F
- 4 crops supply 2/3 of global food
- Data are medians of measured or simulated changes and error bars show 25th to 75th percentile intervals.
- Mt %GP t/GP 700 13 91
- The initial causes of the late-2006 price spikes included droughts in grain-producing nations and rising oil prices.[6] Oil price increases also caused general escalations in the costs of fertilizers, food transportation, and industrial agriculture. Root causes may be the increasing use of biofuels in developed countries (see also food vs fuel),[7] and an increasing demand for a more varied diet across the expanding middle-class populations of Asia.[8][9]The Food and Agriculture Organization also raised concerns about the role of hedge funds speculating on prices leading to major shifts in prices.[10] These factors, coupled with falling world-food stockpiles, all contributed to the worldwide rise in food prices (CNN) -- Riots from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt over the soaring costs of basic foods have brought the April 2008 CNN: issue to a boiling point and catapulted it to the forefront of the world's attention, the head of an agency focused on global development said Monday. FAO and Index mundi https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=wheat&months=360
- Russia = 32% drop from previous year (from 62 to 42 M t)
- #5 in world wheat production (in 2017) 42 to 29Mt drop China, India, Russia, USA The drop in French production comes at a period of high output in other wheat-producing countries, which has led to a fall in world prices; prices are at rock bottom as harvests have been very good elsewhere, notably in Ukraine, Romania and Russia,” Ben-Ari paper mention soil-born disseases, leave fungal diseases and viruses but nothing specific
- +1C since start of industrial revolution 1960 = 3b people 2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b 0.6 = 1.0 F 2=3.6F 4=6.2F