Innovation Matters - Bernie Meyerson

Dr. Bernard Meyerson – IBM Fellow, Vice President of Innovation, CHQ

Why Innovation Matters: Big
Data, Data Babies and the
Analytics in Between

Dr. Bernard Meyerson Collaborative Innovation © 2011 IBM Corporation

Why Innovate?
“What is the most important capability required for growth?”

Ability to innovate

Ability to allocate the best talent

Ability to manage a global organization

Ability to allocate capital

Ability to manage increasing regulation costs

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Source: McKinsey survey of 9,345 global executives 07

McKinsey Global Survey 2010:
2007
84% of executives say Innovation is extremely or very important to their companies’ growth strategy

Dr. Bernard Meyerson Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 © 2011 IBM Corporation

Key Elements of Sustainable Innovation
A short list of Innovation Essentials


Essential #1; T-Shaped Innovators
Requirement: Deep, Expert-Thinking, with Broad Complex-Communications Skills

Broad across many

Many team-oriented projects completed
(resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)

Many disciplines Many systems
(understanding & communications) (understanding & communications)

(analytic thinking & problem solving)

(analytic thinking & problem solving)
Deep in one discipline

Deep in one system

Deep in at least one

A Call to Alms:-})
Talented techies deserve ‘rock star’ treatment: IBM
BARRIE McKENNA
OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Nov. 06 2012, 5:53 PM EST
Last updated Tuesday, Nov. 06 2012, 5:55 PM EST
Canada and the United States need to get back to treating – and compensating – their leading
technology creators like “rock stars,” says IBM’s global head of innovation.
“An economy is only as good as its supply of talent,” explained Bernard Meyerson,
International Business Machine Corp.’s vice-president of innovation and relations with
universities. “Physical infrastructure is nice to have, but without good people, you get awful
results.”

Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 © 2011 IBM Corporation

Outcomes; The “AHA” Moments
Extraordinary Innovators Create Innovations That Matter

1944: 1948: 1956: 1957: 1964: 1966: 1967: 1970: 1971:
Mark 1 SSEC RAMAC FORTRAN System/360 One-Device Fractals Relational Speech
Memory Cell Database Recognition

Nobel Prizes:
1973: 1979: 1980: 1986: 1987: 1990: 1994: 1993: RS/6000 SP
Winchester Thin Film RISC Scanning High Temperature Chemically SIGe 1996,97: Deep Blue
Disk Recording Tunneling Superconductivity Amplified
Heads Microscope Photoresists

2004: 2006: 2008: 2010:
1997: 1998: 1998:
2002: Blue Gene 5-stage Carbon World’s First Petaflop Watson
Copper Silicon-on- Microdrive
Interconnect Insulator Millipede The fastest Nanotube Ring Supercomputer
Wiring supercomputer Oscillator
in the world


Valuing Continuous Innovation;
Beyond The “AHA!” Moment

Never Undervalue Ongoing Innovation

 Disk Drives
–If IBM had not continued to innovate in this
field, today’s laptops would weigh
approximately 250,000 Tons

x2

Essential #2: Innovators Need INFRASTRUCTURE
Enabling Collaborative Innovation (Outreach Matters)

Pangoo
China
Zurich Tokyo
Almaden Watson Haifa

Austin India

Brazil

IBM Research Lab
Global, Smarter Planet Collaborations


Essential #3: Dynamics: Innovators Must Evolve

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
 Corporate  Collaborative  Work on client  Create business  Collaborative
funded Team problems advantage for clients partnerships
 Shared agenda  Industry-focused  Emerging markets
 Technology
 Effectiveness research
transfer

Global
Collaborative Collaboration
Innovation
Research in the
Marketplace
Joint Programs
Centrally Funded

Inter-disciplinary collaboration in the market and across the globe


The Extraordinary Trajectory;
A Quick Review of How We Got “Here”,
And
Why Innovation Must Now Accelerate


Moore’s Law – Connecting Scaling and Economics

Number of devices integrated on a chip of fixed area doubles
every 12-18 months


Scaling in the Past vs. Scaling Now

1.40 Channel Scaling
High-k / Metal Gate
1.35 Body Controlled Devices
1.30 Reduced Gate Height
Relative Performance

Advanced BEOL Dielectric
1.25
1.20
1.15 Scaling In The Past…
1.10
1.05 Higher Capacitance
1.00
0.95 Higher Resistance
0.90
0.85
New Scaling Requirements;
0.80 Reduced Stress
Massive Innovation
Scaling Now


Materials Innovation

Elements Employed in Silicon Technology

Before 90’s
90’s through 2005
Beyond 2006

This has gotten unimaginably EXPENSIVE!!!


Issue First Raised in 2004;
Is There a Sustainable Business Model?
Chip Making R&D Versus Revenues
(Worldwide in Permission, VLSI inc.
~$2.3B
6
With $M)
10
 Reminder; The industry trend has been 5
10
for R&D Expenses to outpace revenues Estimated cost to develop the
1022-nm CMOS logic process
4

2004-2020 Projected CAGR 1,800
3
Revenues ~ 6.5% 1,600 10
R&D ~ 12.2%
$1.1B

extrapolated
2
1,400 10
Process development Process ramp-up
R&D Revenue 1,200 1
Expenses Growth 10 Total RD & E (Chip + Eq)

Costs ($M)
12.2% 6.5%
1,000 Semiconductor Revenues
0
2004 - 2010 CAGR 10
800 70
 This was/is NOT sustainable 600
60
400
50

Revenue/RD&E
 Fiscal reality drove our industry to 200
40
consolidate around Innovation 0
30
180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm 22nm
Networks. Source: IBS Global System IC Service Management Report, April 2006.
20

10

 The predicted consolidation continues
virtually unabated. 3002 NO
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year


Information Technology in the “Post-Silicon” Era

 The “Silicon Era” is rapidly(~10 years) coming to an end.
– While silicon will be the semiconductor of choice for several decades to come,
devices themselves will play a minimal role in driving future IT performance.
– Deep integration of hardware, software, system, and network functionality, will
absorb the “slack” created by the absence of raw silicon performance gains.
– Viable “post-silicon” technology requires >1B simultaneously functional devices

 The tremendous investments associated with the
innovations required to continue driving device density will
prompt ever greater consolidation in this industry.
 Despite all the challenges cited here, Innovation in
Information Technology will drive ever more rapid
advances in its capabilities

Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson Collaborative Innovation © 2010 IBM Corporation

New Drivers of Progress in
Information Technology

Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012
2012 Collaborative Innovation © 2011 IBM Corporation

A New Paradigm For Systems

Switching

Storage Memory

Scale In

Processor

Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012 Collaborative Innovation

IBM Canada Research and Development Centre

Water Brain

Applied Research +
Innovation Centre
HPC & Agile
Cities Computing

Energy

18 Collaborative Innovation

The IBM Canada R&D Centre Mission
 Announced April 10, 2012
 Focus on Agile Computing and Smarter Infrastructure
–Agile computing enabling Smarter;
• Healthcare
• Water
• Energy
• Cities
 High Performance Computing Infrastructure Partners
–University of Toronto
–Western University
–Canadian Leadership Data Centre
 Collaboration is foundational and key to success
–Seven University partners
–Ontario Centre of Excellence (OCE) to enable industry
participation
–Federal and provincial government engagements
–IBM Research and Lab support
–Cross discipline and cross-university collaboration


Collaboration at Work – The Southern Ontario Smart Computing Innovation Platform

Western UofO

IBM Canada

McMaster
UofT
IBM Canada
Software Lab

Waterloo R&D Centre Queen’s

HPC & Cloud
UOIT Others Infrastructure

Small & Medium Enterprises

Collaborative Innovation © 2011 IBM Corporation

Enabling Technologies; Advanced Microelectronics Research


Announced today @ 10:30am, EST
University Partnership on Analytics Skills

Develop and implement a model of cooperation that:
a) Enhances education, training and research collaboration in the areas of Analytics between IBM
and Post-Secondary educational institutions in Nova Scotia and the Atlantic Canada region,
b) Increases the number of individuals with education, training, experience and certification in
Analytics throughout Nova Scotia and the Atlantic Canada region, and
c) Engages Nova Scotia’s post-secondary educational institutions as key partners in research and
development for the creation of essential skills and applications in Analytics.

Specific actions and investment to facilitate three pillars of partnership:

Curriculum Technology
Research &
Development Installation &
Development
& Delivery Support

Led by Post-Secondary IBM donation of HW (SUR Forward looking, building
institutions, building on Grant) and SW (Academic on the critical mass of
existing programs, Initiative) to develop a skills, technology
materials and case provincial cloud to support infrastructure and
studies curriculum deployment additional industrial /
and skills development government partners


How Do We Focus IT Innovation
In This New Era?


The Grand Challenges
In 2008 We Asked The IBM Community To Identify
Global, Societal, Grand Challenges

Innovation Jam 2008-Crowd Sourcing the Future


Global Challenge: Food
Eliminating the millions of tons of
food thrown away annually in
the US and UK could lift more
than a billion people
out of hunger worldwide

Image Source: Sun


Global Challenge:
Transportation

 Today there are
1 Billion cars on the
road. That number will
double in 2020

 Congested roadways
cost $78 Billion
annually in the form of
4.2 Billion lost
working hours and
2.9 billion gallons of
wasted gas.

Collaborative Innovation © IBM Corporation
Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson

Global Challenge: Healthcare

$475 Billion
Estimated U.S. healthcare spending each year on administrative
and clinical waste, fraud and abuse and other waste.1

1.5 Million
Errors in the way medications are prescribed, delivered and
taken harm 1.5 million people in the U.S. every year.2


Our Thesis:
These Problems Result in Large Part From
Our Inability to Utilize VAST AMOUNTS OF
INFORMATION Effectively


“Big” Data Is REALLY BIG

“Every two days now we create as
much information as we did from the
dawn of civilization up until 2003.”
~ Eric Schmidt, CEO Google

29 Dr. Bernard Meyerson Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 © 2011 IBM Corporation

“Data is the New Oil”

In its raw form, oil has little value.
Once processed & refined, it helps
power the world.

30 Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson , October, 2012Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012
Collaborative Ann Winbald,
© 2011 IBM Corporation
Co-founder Hummer
Winbald Venture Capital

To Understand and Effectively Utilize
Big Data
We Need a New Suite of Tools:
Analytics


Why Analytics?

“Looks like you have all the data, what’s the holdup?”


-The Outcome of Innovation Jam 2008-
We Believe It Is The Responsibility of Those Who
Create and Deploy Such Advanced Information
Technology To Step Up and Create a “Smarter Planet”


The Concept of a Smarter Planet
Is Solutions for Society

Smart Traffic Intelligent Smart Food Smart Smart Energy Smart Retail
Systems Oil field Systems Healthcare Grids
technologies

Smart Water Smart Supply Smart Smart Smart Smart Cities
Management Chains Countries Weather Regions


Why Begin With Issues of a Smarter City?
Consider Future Population Demographics
7000

6000
Population (millions)

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Urban Population Rural Population


Ensuring a Future:
-Smarter Healthcare-


Big Data & Predictive Analytics in Healthcare
Toronto Hospital for Sick Children

Sources

Predict Baby Crashing
~24 hrs

Files, TCP
Sockets

 Correlating blood oxygenation with blood pressure to predict “Baby crashing”

 Nosocomial Infection Prediction
 Monitoring heart rate variability with other information to predict sepsis
 Alarms up to 24 hours earlier than by experienced ICU Nurses

Collaborative Innovation , Nov. 8, 2012 © 2011 IBM Corporation

One Element of a Smarter City:
-Smarter Transportation-


The Smart Principle: Integrating real-world data with
analytics allows one to be Proactive vs Reactive
Operational/ Transactional Insights System wide control

Road Usage
Optimization,
GHG emission
models

• Toll collection only -
Operational/ • More granular • Dynamic and
Transactional
disconnected charging, by location congestion based
operational data pricing
• Analysis of traffic
Development

• Transaction data from patterns to manage • Route planning and
Business

the management of city congestion. advice, shippers,
payments concrete haulers,
• Modeling traffic to
limo companies,
• Little automated use predict and manage
theatres, taxis etc
is made of real-time entire system
traffic data • City-wide, dynamic
traffic optimization

Smarter Transportation: Predicting Traffic Flow

•10 minute-ahead volume forecast (blue) vs. actual •10 minute-ahead speed forecast (blue) vs. actual
value (black) value (black).

Data Analytics in Action
Singaporeans now get there Faster, Cheaper, and Greener

Changing the Future:
-Smarter Public Safety-


Collaborative Innovation With Rio de Janeiro


The Intelligent Operations Center, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The Challenge; Evolve from Reactive to Proactive Operations

History; Flooding in 2010 resulted in 110 deaths.
Proactive emergency response is crucial

Sometimes Nature Hits VERY Close to Home


“Big Data’s” Impact on Public Safety:
Example; Blue CRUSH in Memphis, TN & Richmond, VA

Memphis Blue CRUSH Map

 Blue CRUSH predictive analysis for officer deployment & risk management generated
easy-to-read crime maps every four hours
 Richmond, VA: Violent crime decreased in the first year by 32%, another 40% thereafter,
moving Richmond from #5 on the list of the most dangerous US cities to #99

Big Data in Big Business
-”Impact” Takes on a Whole New
Meaning-


Collaborative Innovation: Statoil & IBM
 Operational process optimization and
equipment monitoring

 Accelerated production and increased
reserves, in addition to standardization and
automation of work processes, OLF
estimated value of US$50 Billion over five
years (ref. Norwegian Oil Industry Association [OLF])

Environmental Factors


Cyber; The Next Battleground for Analytics

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/121012/panetta-us-cyber-security-threat-pre-911-moment


The New Realities of Innovation

 The Innovators of tomorrow require a new mix of
skills to manage complex systems of systems
producing BIG DATA.
 Data Analytics can extract unprecedented insights
from BIG DATA, and within a decade will become as
common a “tool” as the pocket calculator.
 We, the Information Technology industry, and our
partners in its use, have a responsibility to enable
solutions for a Smarter Planet, with all the societal
benefits that entails.


Innovation Matters - Bernie Meyerson

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