A hands-on approach to applying foresight by Andy Hines, Principal at Hinesite and Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence in Futures Studies at University of Houston.

1. Thinking [Better] About
the Future:
A Hands-on Approach to Applying
Foresight
Andy Hines
IABC Houston
May 12, 2011

2. Where I‟m Coming From

3. Why Foresight?
• Uncover new opportunities
• Detect threats
• Craft strategy
• Guide policy
• Understand emerging customer needs
• Explore new offering, markets, products, or services

4. Approach

5. Framing

6. Framing: What Are We Looking For?
If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra
1.1 Know your audience
1.2 Map the innovation landscape
1.3 Set your time horizon
1.4 Polling: Degree of “stretch”

7. 1.1 Know Your Audience
Fence-sitters Bridge Builders
Pragmatist
Don’t Get It Get It
Ideologies
Laggards True Believers

8. 1.2 Map the Landscape
Work
Spaces
Work
Workers
Tools Knowledge
Work
Work
Models

9. EXAMPLE: The Trend Universe
is a tool intended to stimulate individual and team thinking
about trends influencing growth or other aspects of the business
http://growth.intranet.dow.com/TrendsSection/TrendsHomePg.htm
the broad trends in the world at large that plant the seeds
of longer-term business opportunities
Contextual
Trends Demographic
Environmental
House
Food & Home
Biotech
Materials
Technological Chemical Transportation Political
Energy Industry
Infotech
Health
Leisure &
Entertainment Market
Trends Economic
Social
the trends that are manifested in markets that
point to nearer-term business opportunities
For more info on trends or
how to use them in ideation contact MORE TRENDS RESOURCES

10. 1.3 Set Your Time Horizon
What is your product cycle , or the industries you work with?
Computer Chips = 18 months Cars = 3-5 years Oil Platforms = 30+ years

11. Degree of Stretch
A competitor announces a bold move into an innovative
new area. How is your organization likely to respond?
Select where your organization falls on this continuum of less to more
sophisticated responses
1. SAFE 3. PROVOCATIVE
Degree of “stretch”
Smaller Payoff Bigger Payoff
Less Risk Higher Risk
2. IN BETWEEN

12. In Sum…..
Framing Scanning
1.1 Know your audience 2.1 Look for changes “outside”
1.2 Map the innovation landscape 2.2 Talk to people
1.3 Set your time horizon 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory
1.4 Degree of “stretch?” 2.4 Capture the Insights
2.5 Create a trend inventory
Forecasting
3.1 Cluster trends into drivers
3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build
3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces

13. Scanning

14. 2. Scanning: Where Are “Interesting Things”
Happening?
Breadth Plus Depth = Foresight with Insight -- Andy Hines
2.1 Look for changes “outside”
2.2 Talk to people
2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory
2.4 Capture insights
2.5 Create a trend inventory
The Kyoto: "These Zen-like slip-ons
make me feel light on my feet and
lighthearted. Great for peaceful walks
to and from yoga sessions." Oprah

15. Issue Emergence: Find Opportunities Before
“ They” Do
Much Influence Litigated
Little Effort Legislated
Framed
Event
Emerging Little Influence
Wildcard
Much Effort

16. 2.1 Look for Changes “Outside”
“Outside”
Economic
Technological Environmental
Industry
Organization
Social Political

17. Example: Brands Capitalizing on External Changes
Authenticity Sharing
Co-Creation Spirituality
Experiences
Sustainability
Self-Expression

18. Finding Scanning Hits on the Web
• Search Engines, e.g. Google
• Syndicated Content/Feeds, RSS, Feed Demon
• Alerts, e.g., Google Alerts
• Target specific sites, e.g., Population Reference Bureau
• Bookmarking sites, e.g., Delicious, Magnolia
• Specialized software/data mining, e.g., Porter’s Technology
Opportunity Analysis
• Databases, e.g., Lexis-Nexis
• 3rd Party Services, e.g., Social Technologies

19. 2.2 Talk to People
Good open-ended questions
• If I could answer any question for you, what would it be?
• If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the triumph in the ____,
what would it be?
• If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the failure in the ______ ,
what would it be?
• What does the _______ need to forget?
• What are one or two critical strategic decisions regarding the __________
on the horizon?
• What are the top 2 or 3 trends driving the future of the ______?
• What are the obstacles to progress in the ________?
• What should I have asked that I didn’t? (at the end)
Source: Global Business Network, Developing & Using Scenarios, www.gbn.com

20. 2.3 Explore Unfamiliar Territory

21. Discussion: Getting Ideas
Where do you get your best ideas?
Where do you typically come up with your most
creative ideas….wherever that might be?

22. 2.4 Capture the Insights
A complicated form for students….
…a simpler one for time-pressed organizations
CATEGORY INDICATORS BRIEF DESCRIPTION
Technology Neuropharmaceuticals developing Understanding of brain/mind, and how
to manipulate them, is growing.

23. 2.5 Create a Trend Inventory
Virtual communities growing
Co-working collectives “Hotelling”
Work Gen Y wants to be in charge
Spaces
Telepresence rooms like “being
there”
Work Reverse brain drain
Tools
Knowledge Workers
Work
Cloud-based tools
Free agent nation
Work
Transparency Models
Core-contractor structure
“Open innovation”
Crowdsourcing

24. In Sum…..
Scanning
Framing
2.1 Look for changes “outside”
1.1 Know your audience
2.2 Talk to people
1.2 Map the innovation landscape
1.3 Set your time horizon
2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory
1.4 Degree of “stretch?” 2.4 Capture the Insights
2.5 Create a trend inventory
Forecasting
3.1 Cluster trends into drivers
3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build
3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces

25. Forecasting

26. Forecasting: Where Are the Attractive
Spaces?
The surprise-free future isn’t – Herman Kahn
3.1 Cluster trends into drivers
3.2 Identify “insights” around which to
build opportunity spaces
3.2.1 Identify key uncertainties
3.2.2 Challenge assumptions
3.2.3 Look for potential discontinuities
3.2.4 Create scenarios
3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces

27. The Cone of Plausibility
The Future is
many, not one. Alternative
Futures
Preferred
Implications
Future
Alternative
Futures
Present
Past
Source: Charles Taylor, Army War College

28. 3.1 Cluster Trends into Drivers

29. 3.2 Identify Key Uncertainties
Future of Downtowns
Hi
Transit: Personal vs. Mass
Granola
Donuts Snacking Bars Vehicles: Electric vs. Gas
(Tasty)
Importance
(Healthy)
Environmental: Lip Service vs. Deep Green
Personal Settlement Patterns: Dense vs. Sprawl
Urban Transit Mass
Uncertainty Hi

30. 3.3 Challenge Assumptions
Original Assumption: Alternative Assumption
“This is the way the industry works.” “What if we…..”
Libraries should be quiet
What if we made libraries
fun places where people
eat, drink, and talk, as
well as read and study?

31. 3.4 Look for Potential Discontinuities
Dematerialization: From Pounds to Sense
More and more of the value of products will come from the information content rather than the
physical content. Selling by the pound makes less sense, if you can sell the sense!
Interface Flooring Systems
TREND IT1: More consumers and businesses are
embracing e-commerce.
TREND M1: Materials are becoming smarter.
TREND EC12: Commoditization is happening faster and
faster.
TREND EC10: New economic measures will emerge to
reflect socially desirable goals, such as
environmental quality.
TREND EC11: New models are emerging to explain the
"new economy."
TREND EN2: Products are being increasingly designed for
re-use.
TREND P5: "Global management" of global-scale issues is
emerging.
Hydrocarbon Trend to Value Added
Cleaning Perchloroethylene Cleaning Services
Solvents c. 1930’s c. 1950’s c. 2001
• nonflammable • Safetainer
• flammable • recycle
• good vapor properties
• dangerous • provide expertise
• neighborhood cleaners

32. Example: IBM Global Innovation Outlook
Insights from academics, industry experts, and
business leaders
Define and research key trends in innovation on
a global scale.

33. 3.5 Create Scenarios
• A scenario is a product that describes some possible future state and/or
that tells the story about how such a state might come about.
– The former are referred to as end state (or even day in the life scenarios); the
latter are chain of events scenarios (or future histories).

34. 3.5 Create Scenarios
The Long Boom The Soft Path
In the Long Boom world… In the Soft Path world…
•25 years of prosperity, freedom, and a better •Enoughness: consumers rethink consumption
environment and their lives in general
•Current recession just a speed bump •Recognition of limits
•Driven by five great waves of technology: •Sustainability a fact of life
•(1) PCs •Grassroots-driven change
•(2) telecomm
• (3) biotech
• (4) nanotech
•(5) alternative energy
Source: Hines; Innovaro (www.innovaro.com)

35. Sample Scenario: Communi-city
http://vimeo.com/171
23084

36. In Sum…
Framing Scanning
1.1 Know your audience 2.1 Look for changes “outside”
1.2 Map the innovation landscape 2.2 Talk to people
1.3 Set your time horizon 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory
1.4 Degree of “stretch?” 2.4 Capture the Insights
2.5 Create a trend inventory
Forecasting
3.1 Cluster trends into drivers
3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build
3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces

37. Visioning Planning Acting

38. 4. Visioning, Planning ,& Acting
If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra
4.1 Implications via Futures Wheel
4.2 Actions via Start, Stop & Continue
4.3 Institutionalizing

39. 4.1
Implications Recruiting for
Built-in
smart
Plug & Play
„Docking”
Time-based
int‟l experience infrastructure Infrastructure
via Success-base,
Project-based
Revisit % of profits
Futures traditional
practices
contracts
Integrating New pay
Wheel smartness practices?
Annual
contracts?
Intelligence Rethink hiring
Lands & firing
Need a Where?
policy Need for
Transparency
Augmented
Customization
Workers
Inter- Explaining
generation Fairness “special”
conflict Future Impossible treatment
of
Work
Going beyond
paycheck
What motivates Nearsourcing Training?
workforce
Strengthen
Local ties
What fits w/
cultures
Negotiate w/
multiple
jurisdictions

40. Alternative: Implications for Different
Stakeholders
The Industry Your organization
Biz Idea Biz Idea
Implication
Implication
_______
_______
Challenge
___________
Implication Implication
_______ _______
Biz Idea
Biz Idea

41. 4.2 Planning Exercise: Start, Stop & Continue
Start Stop Continue

42. 4.3 Institutionalize: Push, Pull, Build
• Push: Spread the word to new potential clients
– Site Visits, Intranet sites, Business TV, Podcasts, Webcasts, Newsletters, Brown-
Bag lunches, Futures Rooms , Sample Ideation Workshops
• Pull: “Deliver the goods” and create positive “word-of-mouth”
– Success breeds success
– Craft a one-pager to concisely describe how you do it
– Set up appointments with other functions in need of filling their innovation
pipeline
• Build: Grow your support network
– Cultivate communities-of-practice
– Developing your own training course

43. Benefits of Foresight
Activity Benefits
FRAMING (22%) 1. Thinking more diverse open, balanced and non-biased (9%)
2. Focusing on the right questions and problems more clearly (7%)
3. Being aware of, and influencing, assumptions and mental models (6%)
SCANNING (16%) 4. Understanding the context, in all its complexity, through establishing
frameworks (5%)
5. Anticipating change and avoiding surprise (10%)
FORECASTING 6. Producing more creative, broader, and deeper insights (16%)
(22%) 7. Identifying a wider range of opportunities and options (5%)
VISIONING (10%) 8. Prioritizing and making better and more robust decisions (10%)
PLANNING (7%) 10. Constructing pathways from the present to the future that enable
rehearsing for the future (7%)
ACTING (23%) 10. Catalyzing action and change (7%)
11. Building alignment, commitment and confidence (14%)
12. Building a learning organization (2%)

44. Recommended Books
• Hines, Bishop, Thinking About the Future
• Peter Schwartz, Art of the Long View
• Glenn, Jerome and Gordon, Ted, Futures Research Methodology, edited by
Jerome Glenn. Millennium Project, February 2003. (CD-ROM)
• Coates, Mahaffie & Hines, 2025
• Wendel Bell, Foundations of FS (but only vol 1)
• Ed Cornish, Futuring
• Richard Slaughter, Knowledge Base of Futures Studies
• Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future
• Alvin Toffler, Future Shock or The Third Wave
• Harman, An Incomplete Guide to the Future or Global Mind Change
• Bernard deJouvenel, Art of Conjecture
• Petersen, John, Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises:
How to Anticipate and Respond to Profound Change, The Arlington
Institute,1997.
• Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology,
Viking 2005.
• Meadows et al, Limits to Growth: The Thirty Year Update
• William Gibson, Neuromancer, Bruce Sterling, Heavy Weather, Vernor Vinge,
Across Real Time

45. Contact Info
Andy Hines
U of Houston Futures Studies
Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence
ahines@uh.edu
832 367 5575
www.andyhinesight.com