1. Transition to and Breakdown of Democracy
Instructor: NHEM Boraden

2. This week’s Objectives
Define Democracy
History of Democratic Wave
Main factors determining democratic transition

3. Definition: What is democracy?
Before we learn about transition to democracy or
breakdown of democracy, we need to know what we
mean by “democracy”. Without a proper definition, we
risk calling “window-dressing” as a new regime.
There are many simple definitions of what a democracy
is: free and fair election, people have freedom of
expression and other freedoms, inclusive citizenry
(people can vote and run for election)…
But those definitions might be insufficient in some cases
to provide a clear measure of democracy.

4. Definitions of Democracy
If, for example, we define democracy as one where
opposition party must have a chance of forming a
government, then Japan was an autocracy until a few
years ago according to that measure.
If we use election as measure, then every country is
democratic. If we use perfectly free and fair election as
a measure for democracy, then no country is
democratic.
Defining democracy is a challenge. One needs to find
an appropriate example, yet able to capture a large
number of similar countries.

5. Definitions of Democracy
The book gives a vague guidelines as to how to define
democracy.
Among the elements identified by the book include:
regular, free and fair election, strong institutions
(parliament, court, civil society, political parties)
acting as counterbalance to the executive, and civic
culture (the respect of different points of view and
basic freedoms).
Implicit in the definition is one ambiguity: is
democracy a static or dynamic process. A country “is”
democratic or does it “become” democratic over time.
For example, how do we characterize a political system
with regular free election, but no strong institutions
like Russia? What is a system like Thailand where the
is election and respect of human rights to a certain
degree but no strong institutions?

6. Definitions of Democracy: Polity Score
Currently, one of the frequently used measures of
democracy is called “Polity Score” calculated by
political scientists part of the Polity Project.
Democracy is defined using a combination of
measures including: how executive power is acquired,
how is it changed, how often, how is it exercised and
constrained, how is social order maintained, how
much influence does civil society or special interests
have in the decision-making process.
Each country is then given a score by experts and then
ranked from -10 (Full autocracy) to 10 (Democracy).
The score can change from time to time as some
countries might democratize while others might break
down into authoritarianism.

7. World Political System according to the Polity Project

8. Definitions of Democracy: Different Dimensions
In sum, the definition of democracy can take many
forms and cover many dimensions:
Do the institutions have check and balance (the book)?
How much freedom is respected (Freedom House)?
Who exercise power and how power is exercised (Polity
measure)?

9. History of Democratic Shift

10. Causes of Democratic Transition: International Factors
First, it is about American foreign policy associated
with moralism. When President Carter came to office,
he vowed to make human rights promotion his main
foreign policy objective. This involved cutting aid to
authoritarian countries and supporting democracy.
This trend was somewhat reversed under Reagan
(although the book suggested otherwise)
Second, the end of the Cold War made Eastern
European countries rushing to democratize to escape
any future Russian sphere of influence.
Third, the trend might simply be caused by the fact
that democracy has become the norm, the best of the
available political regime that has ever been tried, just
as Winston Churchill said.

11. Causes of Democratic Transition: Domestic Forces
First, after WWII, most regimes that came to power
were weak and unpopular. Military regimes were seen
to be the most appropriate substitute. However, the
results were usually worse.
Second, economic crisis (crisis of import substitution,
state-controlled economy, and oil shock of the 1970s)
exposed the inability of military regime to solve
economic problems, thus leading to unrest.
Third, communication technology led to social
changes: because of urbanization people became more
literate, more politically aware and more mobilized.
More importantly, they were aware of what happened
in the rest of the world.

12. Causes of Democratic Transition: Domestic Forces
Fourth, partially related to the rise in education,
people, especially the intellectuals, began to organize
social and political groups despite severe crackdown
by the authority.
Fifth, the military had made a new calculation. The
book wondered if the military has grown tired of
governing. While that may explain what happened in
Latin America, it did not explain regime of perpetual
military rule like in Myanmar or Thailand. One can ask
if the transition is because the military had made a
new calculation and realized that it is not worth it.
Discussion: Which one is the most important?

13. Thank You!
Last session completed